Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll’s second poll for the campaign shows no change on the two-party preferred, but a fair bit going on in the primary vote. Morgan’s weekly multi-mode poll has also made an early appearance, and they also offer an SMS poll on responses to the debate.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll’s second weekly (I presume) poll for the campaign has the Coalition lead at 52-48, unchanged on last week. However, Labor is down two (to 35%) and the Coalition up two (to 46%) on the primary vote, with a two point increase for the Greens to 11% allowing the two-party vote to remain stable, presumably with help from rounding. Tony Abbott’s numbers continue to improve, his personal ratings now almost equal with Kevin Rudd’s. He is up four points on approval to 38% and down four on disapproval to 52%, while Kevin Rudd is up one apiece to 39% and 48%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-33 to 46-37.

UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll, which normally comes out on Monday afternoon, has made its appearance, and it’s well in line with all the other polling: Labor down 1.5% to 36.5%, and both the Coalition and the Greens up a point to 44% and 10.5%. That pans out to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition on two-party preferred using 2010 election preferences, but a stronger 50-50 result for Labor on respondent-allocated preferences. State breakdowns are featured, and they interestingly show a five-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred in Queensland.

Morgan also got 1200 responses to an SMS poll conducted this evening on reaction to the debate, which is probably the most reliable data we have on this. It shows an effective dead heat with Kevin Rudd rated the winner by 24%, Tony Abbott favoured by 23%, 5% calling it a draw, and 48% granted that they hadn’t watched (non-watchers presumably also having tended to be non-respondents).

BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll result but not the Morgan. I’ll follow up on that tomorrow after Essential Research comes out (UPDATE: Essential Research will not be out until tomorrow, so I’ve updated BludgerTrack without it).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,129 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. I had a very strong feeling for months that a former cricketer would be selected for the seat of Dobell on behalf of Labor . I got the former cricketer part right, but of course, Singo is bankrolling Nathan Bracken as an Indie. No doubt, preferences will flow to the Liberal candidate.

  3. [quote]2.I had a very strong feeling for months that a former cricketer would be selected for the seat of Dobell on behalf of Labor . I got the former cricketer part right, but of course, Singo is bankrolling Nathan Bracken as an Indie. No doubt, preferences will flow to the Liberal candidate.[/quote]

    Have you ever heard Bracked give an interview? I remember one interview he gave, he tried to convince the interviewer that the secret to reverse swing was flipping the ball….. so the shiny side points the other way lol. Good God! Absolute, first class, brainless pretty boy.

  7. Rudd on 24 with little kids. He’s good with kids, Abbott steering clear of them after the snogging the mum gaffe plus he scares the shit out of them. Kids are far more tuned in than oldies, they can see what we can’t & in Abbott they see a nasty twisted spirit.

  8. Abbott has linked a falling revenue number to a claim on spending when a comparison should be spending to spending. The more precise statement would be: the government’s revenue forecast for the next four years has changed by $3 billion per week between the May budget and the August economic statement.

    There’s no argument about that actual number. But the deterioration in the budget is over four years not 11 weeks. The budget isn’t actually blowing out $3 billion, week after week.

    We rate this as Mostly False.
    ——————————————————-

    Its a disgrace that MSM don’t report these lies. The bias of the MSM in not reporting the lies and openly supporting one Party is an attack on our democracy.

    People are not being told the truth. The actions of MSM along with the constant unjustified lying attacks on the position of our economy are disgraceful acts.

    I have no respect for MSM and my dislike of Abbott and his Liberal supporters has only grown stronger as I see them trying to destroy the country for their own political gain.

  10. “@latikambourke: PM Rudd announcing $30m better skills funding plan for services sector. 3rd small skills related announcement in as many days. #AusVotes”

  11. “@latikambourke: PM Rudd seizes on Don Randall’s comments that coalition might have to break promises in Govt. He congratulates Mr Randall. #AusVotes”

    Then comments by Mr Truss on infrastructure

  12. Tony already famous OS for being a goose!

    But all he was trying to say is that path to knowledge is a difficult and often painful one . 🙂

  13. “@latikambourke: PM Rudd says Don Randall’s comments show the integrity of coalition funding promises made this election. #AusVotes”

  14. Boerwar

    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    Apparently Abbott has promised a fridge suppository for every home.
    —————————————————–

    delivered to the end of your street. you have to pay to get it to your home

  15. River@1731


    Turnbull is being rubbished by the Tech community on twitter. Even MSM Journos notice that.


    Twitter is a young person’s domain. I expect a lot of pro-Labor rubbish to be spewed on there, fact or otherwise.

    82 year old murdoch on twitter – hardly a ‘teenager’.

    Heaps of other ‘oldies’ as well.

    Few teenagers really interested in politics anyway.

  18. [quote]PM Rudd announcing $30m better skills funding plan for services sector. 3rd small skills related announcement in as many days.[/quote]

    Yeah, I heard them. 35m dollars retrain manufacturing workers for ‘high tech’ industries, stupid idea, doesn’t guarantee them jobs, doesn’t do anything for the manufacturing sector.

    More training for disabled people to try to get them into jobs, which won’t work because it’s not the training that’s a problem, it’s finding a place fro them to be employed.

    There’s a reason there isn’t much excitement about his announcements.

  21. “@latikambourke: No difference in key PEFO figures against Federal Government’s Economic statement of 2 weeks ago. #AusVotes”

  23. [“@latikambourke: No difference in key PEFO figures against Federal Government’s Economic statement of 2 weeks ago. #AusVotes”]guytaur
    That will make Hockey, etc cry foul!

  29. mikehilliard@1774


    Crunch time for Hockey, PEFO in line with Labor budget.

    He will claim it proof that Labor stitched up the figures – but it won’t do him any good – he will now be under pressure to produce his costings.

    It just a matter of seeing what excuses are invented to delay making the lib numbers public.

  30. Right. I just listened to the first 3 minutes of Albo & Turnbull from last night but the first lie – that 100Mbs is available NOW on the old copper – was so egregious that I had to turn it off. FFS, there’s copper at this distance in Australia NOW that can’t even manage 1Mb/s, let alone what happens when more than one person is using it. Again FFS, there are optical transmission standards with 10 times that as overhead, if you’re going to compare lab results then fibre optics can handle 100+ gigabits/sec on a single fibre channel. Copper can’t. Wireless can’t. I can’t believe this conversation even occurs.

    So my question is this – Will YOU Win The Fraudband Lottery?

    IF you have a spare $2000-$5000, Congratulations you’ve won the Fraudband Lottery (but you have to pay)

    but IF you’ve already been connected to the real NBN then Congratulations you’ve won the Fraudband Lottery!

    or IF you build a house in a new suburb the Congratulations you’ve won the Fraudband Lottery!

    or IF your current copper connection is so bad that it’s unusable for VDSL then Congratulations you’ve won the Fraudband Lottery!

    or IF your house is on a corner and they plonk the node cabinet on your doorstep then Congratulations you’ve won the Fraudband Lottery (but you have to put up with a bloody great ugly cabinet covered in graffiti outside your joint).

    or IF nobody else in the area serviced by the node uses the internet ever then Congratulations you’ve won the Fraudband Lottery!

    Everyone else can go and get stuffed.

  33. Hockey – sharpen that pencil, fire up the abacus and tell us the Liberal costings hahahahaha……

    There will be another excuse;

    Treasury figures cant be trusted.
    I can’t find my pencil
    Because of the carbon tax my abacus wont run
    I’m waiting to hear from Rupert
    I can’t get the numbers to suit Abbotts rants
    I can’t find someone else to do the numbers

  34. [quote]82 year old murdoch on twitter – hardly a ‘teenager’.

    Heaps of other ‘oldies’ as well.

    Few teenagers really interested in politics anyway.[/quote]

    Heaps of oldies? Oh please.

    A recent US survey showed that 5% of internet users over the age of 65 use twitter. Compared to the 30% aged 18-29, and the (probably) god-awful amount <18 years of age. And remember, that's a % of how many people who are on the internet use twitter, not how many people are on twitter. That 5% fades in further insignificance when you take into consideration that not many older people are on the internet.

    Twitter is for young people, for people under 30. Rates drop off quickly after you hit that age.

  40. The fact that people are cheering when Treasury forecasts are accurate over a 10 day period shows how little faith people have in the Treasurer and his department at the moment. Slightly ludicrous situation.

  46. River: yeah, nice one!

    All that statistic you provide does is prove 70% of Twitter users are NOT aged 18-29. It may well be that only 5% are people over 65, but I bet the vast majority of users are actually aged 40-60, hardly youngsters.

    Facebook might be a different story …

  50. [quote]River

    Yes ludicrous statements from LNP making excuses to hide costings indeed[/quote]

    Yes, it is ludicrous but both sides do it and will continue to do it into the future. To be critical of Hockey, but not Rudd (who waited until the very last possible moment to submit his costings in 2007, far too late for anybody to look at them) is the height of partisanship.

    Rudd saying what he is about the libs costings just makes him yet another hypocrite in politics.

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