ReachTEL: 54-46 to LNP in Forde

It’s still early days in the life of Peter Beattie’s bid for federal parliament, but a ReachTEL poll suggests he is taking on a considerable challenge in contesting the marginal LNP seat of Forde.

A snap ReachTEL automated phone poll of Forde, conducted immediately after today’s big news, suggests Peter Beattie has his work cut out for him in overcoming the 1.6% Liberal National Party margin in the southern Brisbane fringe seat. The poll has LNP member Bert van Manen leading Beattie by 48.3% to 39.9% on the primary vote, and by 54-46 on two-party preferred. The sample size on the poll is 725.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

492 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to LNP in Forde”

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  2. Gary:

    That must’ve hurt. You’ve previously declared you would’nt read the output of a Murdoch employee.

    Why now? Is it because Mumble says things you agree with?

  9. Nielsen will tell us more in 10 seconds than 5 days of cobbled together automated phone polls or leaked internal polling ever will.

    I’ve made a deliberate attempt to avoid most of the PB banter, Twitter discussions, etc so far since Sunday. I’ve watched the 7, 9 and 10 news grabs on the election coverage as well as some radio.

    There hasn’t been anything groundbreaking or gaffe-worthy from Rudd or Abbott. The biggest moment was the Diaz bumbling. Enough of a shocker to have Greenway in the Labor column on my seating prediction.

    There hasn’t been a seismic shift this week away from the 49-51 in my opinion.

  13. zoomster
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 8:52 pm | PERMALINK
    Read this for the laughs….and make sure you vote in the poll (94% of respondents think Sophie Mirabella should be worried….)

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/1691699/sophie-mirabella-absolutely-not-worried-about-losing-indi-poll/?cs=53#disqus_thread

    I love the accompanying photo of Sophie “smiling”. What is she really thinking? Whatever it is, it looks like it could be very unpleasant for her victim.

  14. Zoo@207
    My very small co won’t pay the ppl. I might be able to invest and borrow and create more rev and employment with a co tax cut.

  16. So the ‘Kevin-Rudd-is-a-sociopath’ staffers and footsoldiers here have fallen nicely into line since July, I presume?

    Certainly seems that the front bench have done an implausible but energetic job of pretending to like the Real Kevin?

  17. [Certainly seems that the front bench have done an implausible but energetic job of pretending to like the Real Kevin?]
    You mean the way Malcolm Turnbull pretends to like Tony Abbott and the way Andrew Robb pretends to like Joe Hockeynomics?

  19. Nielsen will have Coalition in front 53-47 or more, and all your dying hopes will be definitively dashed.

  20. ML:

    [….its just that its kinda looking a little like anything said against Gillard is about her gender, and it is impossible to say anything against a male politician that is about their gender.]

    Perhaps to you …

    [That would be sexist, wouldn’t it?]

    Only in a purely vacuous sense. Sexism, like other forms of exclusion, trades on the power imbalance between a relatively empowered group — in this case males — and a relatively disempowered group — in this case females.

    On the day when males do not get privileges in virtue of not being females sexism will be an obsolete concept. If females ever become a relatively empowered group, then sexism against males will become a valid concept.

  21. Just to clear up a few things here – we ask people to choose from a candidate and party where we have that information.

    So, for example, tonight in Forde people were asked to choose between “the Liberal-National Party candidate Bert Van Manen, the Labor candidate Peter Beattie….etc”.

    Months prior to the election where we only have the incumbent’s name and no other candidates, we prefer to go with just party names to remove any candidate name bias for the incumbent.

  23. Glory at 209 agree. The Nielsen state break-ups should give some indication for both NSW and QLD which have become the crucial states, at least at this stage. Today’s ReachTel is just too early to get excited/depressed about. Having said that the reaction with a big majority of people I talked to today regarding Beattie was pretty negative.

    I’m not sure Beattie is still loved in QLD as much as he was so the benefit expected may not be there.

  24. silmaj@214

    Zoo@207
    My very small co won’t pay the ppl. I might be able to invest and borrow and create more rev and employment with a co tax cut.

    It would have to generate a profit first.

  25. Greens polling nearly 3% lower than in 2010 @ 9%

    I still think they are going to burn this election but the bleed to the ALP ought to be stronger than the previous election… Cyanobacteria have most likely left the building so I’d expect a healthy 85% donation of votes to the ALP cause..

    Any thoughts on Greens?

  26. Interesting that it’s all talk about Kevin and Front bench and how well ‘fall on own sword’, I think that might be the case, but the focus is there for the distraction.

  28. Nick, that is completely reasonable methodology, I would have thought..

    Hey, out of interest, how many phones did you run to get through 725 today??

  29. Nick Adams [ReachTEL]@221

    Just to clear up a few things here – we ask people to choose from a candidate and party where we have that information.

    So, for example, tonight in Forde people were asked to choose between “the Liberal-National Party candidate Bert Van Manen, the Labor candidate Peter Beattie….etc”.

    Months prior to the election where we only have the incumbent’s name and no other candidates, we prefer to go with just party names to remove any candidate name bias for the incumbent.

    Which begs the question of why poll so early on this given Beattie only announced this morning.
    I suppose you are at the whim of who pays the bills but it would have made more sense to wait a few days I would have thought.
    Who owns Reachtel?

  32. OK, we have just heard from Nick Adams from Reachtel, why should this poll lack serious credibility?

    C’mon poll experts, I can answer anything on the betting, it appears to me Abbott will hold this seat easily according to this poll which means PM :mrgreen:

    Let’s not forget, Reachtel conducted a poll when the election was called and was confirmed exactly by Newspoll.

  33. Henry @ 224
    If the profit was just ten thousand the tax is three thousand. That is a tad higher than what a taxpayer pays on an income of ten thousand. Improving the economic climate may get more of these cos to pay tax and create a better budget outcome.

  34. [davidwh
    Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 9:50 pm | PERMALINK
    Nick you big error was not coming up with the expected result ]

    Bingo!

  37. Glory

    I suspect the budget update has had a small impact against the ALP but that is all. There shouldn’t be that much change nationally. What’s more important is what’s happening state by state and seat by seat

  39. There is a resounding similarity in all the polling this election so far.

    The noise is minimal but the trend seems to be there.

    Precious few have seen the ALP above the waterline and given that the ALP needs to recover two to even meet 2010… It ain’t looking great for ‘team division’

  40. Perhaps if there is to be a significant Beattie bounce for Labor it will come in the metropolitan seats which won’t be good news to Gambaro but may not be a problem outside metro Brisbane. Anyway we we get a better idea on Sunday.

  41. I have had enough of this Liberals shyte. I am in the mood to fight Tories.

    Where are those knitted foreskins hiding?

  42. @New2This/238

    This is how it worked under Coalition Party Policy for Pacific Solution.

    People get sent to places like Nauru etc.

    The difference I think is that Liberals talk of TPV’s.

  43. Why is anyone wasting their time with that pointless Reacharound poll from today?

    Time will show that Peter Beattie won the seat of Forde in 2013.

    And Im not interested in unverified reports of ‘internal polling’ from either party, which is even more worthless.

    I want public polling.

  44. silmaj@233

    Henry @ 224
    If the profit was just ten thousand the tax is three thousand. That is a tad higher than what a taxpayer pays on an income of ten thousand. Improving the economic climate may get more of these cos to pay tax and create a better budget outcome.

    Which is why most small businesses direct profit into PAYE, thus reducing tax liability.
    Me thinks you are bullshitting.

  48. [ Another boat has just been picked up with 111 on board ]
    poor buggers mustn’t have been able to get their money back. Good job they haven’t just been towed back into international waters and left to their own devices.

  49. Legendary UK Murdoch foe, Tom Watson MP is making a visit to Australia.

    Motivated by the Daily ToiletPaper front pages, and Murdoch’s attempt to suborn our democracy.

    Should make for some interesting media opportunities 😉

  50. [Any thoughts on Greens?]

    I have lots of thoughts on the Greens. Those which immediately come to mind:

    – Why didn’t they support the CPRS, practical action on climate change, as soon as Abbott won the Liberal leadership?

    – Why did Rudd have to stimulate the economy with the choice of the pink batts scheme (environment related)?

    That is about to give us this PM :mrgreen:

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