It’s still early days in the life of Peter Beattie’s bid for federal parliament, but a ReachTEL poll suggests he is taking on a considerable challenge in contesting the marginal LNP seat of Forde.
A snap ReachTEL automated phone poll of Forde, conducted immediately after today’s big news, suggests Peter Beattie has his work cut out for him in overcoming the 1.6% Liberal National Party margin in the southern Brisbane fringe seat. The poll has LNP member Bert van Manen leading Beattie by 48.3% to 39.9% on the primary vote, and by 54-46 on two-party preferred. The sample size on the poll is 725.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
[It kind of does if you’re Abbott. Why does the Liberal leader need to surround himself with his wife and daughters if gender is irrelevant?]
Uh….perhaps because he is married to a woman (the ALP preventing him from marrying a man even if he wanted to do that) and he has daughters not sons.
Gee, you guys really live in cloud-cuckoo-land don’t you?????
@Mod Lib/148
You attack her for correcting the current state of the budget?
Isn’t that sort of the opposite of what you would normally do if they were misleading?
[confessions
Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 8:54 pm | PERMALINK
Right, so what would be a gendered insult against a man then, in your opinion?
No. It’s an insult against an item of clothing.]
Can you give us examples of gendered insults against men?
[“Mr Power also thanked Opposition Leader Tony Abbott for promising to abolish the MRRT if the coalition wins the September 7 election.”
Vested Interest much?]
Oh yeah if Abbott wins he will just do whatever others tell him to do. He has demonstrated over the last 3 years that he doesn’t have any plans for government.
That’s why Mrs D fully supports him.
@Mod Lib/151
ALP is ok with SSM, it’s Abbott that does not.
Infact it is liberals who are side-skipping the issue:
http://www.skynews.com.au/politics/article.aspx?id=894741
Some support it, some don’t?
Zoid@129 Aus companies should pay a fair share of tax and be allowed the right amount of concessions / deductions to maximize employment and investment here. The more competative we are the more of overseas business may set up here.Closing loopholes on multi nationals require a global agreement otherwise they will run to whoever offers the best deal.
[zoidlord
Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 8:55 pm | PERMALINK
@Mod Lib/148
You attack her for correcting the current state of the budget?]
I attack her for continually releasing estimates that are unbelievably optimistic….just like the Libs said all along- this government will NEVER deliver a surplus. They were right and Wong was wrong.
The Libs said the revenue forecasts were way too optimistic. They were right and Wong was wrong.
zoomster:
The Member for Indi does seem a tad touchy about the groundswell of opposition to her.
Btw, I voted ‘No’ in that online poll, and wish others had done similarly. Let her think everything is business as usual. 🙂
Mod Lib@130
yet you prove the exact opposite on this ste??
go figure i guess, imaginary friends and all that.
confessions:
Any progress on giving us an example of a “gendered insult” against a man?
….its just that its kinda looking a little like anything said against Gillard is about her gender, and it is impossible to say anything against a male politician that is about their gender.
That would be sexist, wouldn’t it?
@silmaj/156
Agreed, I think that is the point of G20 (at least I hope it is).
@Mod Lib/157
And you want me to believe the people who use private companies and wanted to use WA Treasury to do their dirty work?
I’m sorry, but it’s not enough to give me confidence of the Coalition Party.
Sophie Mirabella will make an excellent minister. I can’t wait to see her destroy the rump of an opposition it will be.
[Gee, you guys really live in cloud-cuckoo-land don’t you?????]
Margie And The Girls have practically earned trademark status for appearances and reportage of appearance with their father.
Perhaps it’s you living in cloud-cuckoo-land.
[I’m sorry, but it’s not enough to give me confidence of the Coalition Party.]
Oh well, I guess you are one of those “swinging voters” that is going to the ALP! LOL 🙂
162
Sophie Mirabella should be made Coalition leader immediately.
Peter Beattie, you have got to be kidding…
I think I can definitely hear a fat lady singing somewhere..
Labor is toast.
[confessions
Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 9:02 pm | PERMALINK
Gee, you guys really live in cloud-cuckoo-land don’t you?????
Margie And The Girls have practically earned trademark status for appearances and reportage of appearance with their father.
Perhaps it’s you living in cloud-cuckoo-land.]
How are you going with those examples of gender based insults against male politicians……surely you have had plenty of time to come up with something now haven’t you?
[Can you give us examples of gendered insults against men?]
Assumptions that all men are rapists, domestic violence perpetrators and the like would be such an example. These kinds of stereotypes are still seen today.
[I attack her for continually releasing estimates that are unbelievably optimistic….just like the Libs said all along- this government will NEVER deliver a surplus. They were right and Wong was wrong.
The Libs said the revenue forecasts were way too optimistic. They were right and Wong was wrong.]
Mrs D,
So the Coalition is going to abolish Treasury forecasts and just make up numbers using a random number generator?
How about everyone else?
……don’t just leave it to poor old confessions to come up with something, surely the combined wisdom of this blog can give us an example of an insult against a male politician that is gender based????
Anyone?
@Mod Lib/164
Indeed I am a swinging voter.
And not necessarily to the ALP.
[Mrs D,
So the Coalition is going to abolish Treasury forecasts and just make up numbers using a random number generator?]
No, the Coalition is going to take the Treasury forecasts and take the middle road, not the most optimistic.
The Coalition is then going to plan to spend LESS than the most optimistic estimates of revenue so that they don’t get caught short every time like the ALP.
abbott actually cremated a pair of his budgie smugglers a few years ago, around the same time he ‘cremated’ workchoices.
the budgie smugglers were resurrected ……
Abbott is obviously on the nose with the focus groups, hence “Margie” toddling along for hopefully good effect.
[And not necessarily to the ALP]
…yes that is the usual meaning of swinging voter!
[its just that its kinda looking a little like anything said against Gillard is about her gender, and it is impossible to say anything against a male politician that is about their gender.]
Feel free to say what you like about the limitations of various male and female politicians. The line which was crossed with Gillard (as has been repeated ad nauseum) is that it wandered into deeply personal, gendered lines. Even more so once her partner was drawn into the same personal, gendered lines (ie hairdresser = gay).
[the budgie smugglers were resurrected ……]
Did they find a better home?
[confessions
Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 9:04 pm | PERMALINK
Can you give us examples of gendered insults against men?
Assumptions that all men are rapists, domestic violence perpetrators and the like would be such an example. These kinds of stereotypes are still seen today.]
Good on you confessions! See it wasn’t that hard, was it?
Surely Sophie is too busy swindling old men to be leader?
Perhaps there should be a tax of one dollar for every insult on tony Abbott. The budget would be in surplus quick smart .
confessions:
Did you see the link I posted last night about the questions to Sonia McMahon about whether her husband Billy McMahon was gay?
…..I also vaguely remember the same questions about Peacock…..back in the 80’s
[Abbott is obviously on the nose with the focus groups, hence “Margie” toddling along for hopefully good effect.]
Abbott is deeply unpopular, possibly even more so among women. The only reason he has his wife and daughters featuring so prominently is because he and his minders know it and are trying to counter it.
[No, the Coalition is going to take the Treasury forecasts and take the middle road, not the most optimistic.]
Mrs D,
Treasury doesn’t present different roads, it makes a forecast, which is by definition the treasury forecast.
[The Coalition is then going to plan to spend LESS]
So list all their spending cuts for us so we can take these cuts into account before the election.
@silmaj/180
I think there is plenty of insults all around quiet frankly,
Perhaps all MP’s should depot a $10 dollars to the “swear box”.
Then Parliament House can deliver this to the budget at every week.
Then go sit in a naughty corner.
confessions@99
My understanding is they usually name candidate and party where candidate names are known. Which is fine. Naming candidate only in seat polls is extremely dodgy and naming party only is also not good.
Its not up to me to announce Coalition spending cuts, I am not even planning to vote for them!!!
Don’t tell me that is more egg on your face ShowsOn?
Trying to imply that it is not the ALP’s fault for continually announcing amazingly optimistic revenue forecasts and spending every last cent, and then laughing at the Coalition when they say the estimates are far too optimistic, and then we find that the Coalition is absolutely right.
Egg meets face! 🙂
And while we are on leaked internal polling, the NSW ALP numbers are looking ok
[@sspencer_63: @mumbletwits @GrogsGamut @Pollytics agree. ALP types (may be spin) claiming this week’s track gives them Dobell, Greenway, no net loss NSW.]
[Did you see the link I posted last night about the questions to Sonia McMahon about whether her husband Billy McMahon was gay?]
I did, and I asked you at the time whether she was asked about this during McMahon’s PMship live on broadcast radio by a populist shockjock with a demonstrated antipathy (hatred even) towards her then husband’s politics for the sole purpose of generating ratings?
Which of course is what Gillard experienced as PM.
Just logged on see even bluepill has made another appearance, people at LNP headquarters must really be worried? Had a bit of a scroll through see MOD LIB is very kindly working for us, many thanks I paid a lot of tax in my working life and still pay taxes so what is wonderful about that? I personally just took it for granted you pay taxes when you work and didn’t do a song and dance. :devil:
[Its not up to me to announce Coalition spending cuts, I am not even planning to vote for them!!!]
Mrs D,
BULL FUCKING SHIT!
ShowsOn
[Good on you confessions! See it wasn’t that hard, was it?]
I have always been the one who sees sexism, Mod Lib, and am prepared to call it out.
You, OTOH need some education. 🙂
I thought we were just having some friendly banter, ShowsOn….if you are getting upset I am happy to cease and desist.
Mrs D is going to be handing out Liberal how to vote cards on election day.
She always does it.
Both sides spin/release the internals to maximise political impact i would have thought.
That’s why you can only rely on the national polls for a true sense of the vibe.
[I thought we were just having some friendly banter, ShowsOn…]
Mrs D,
Wrong!
[She always does it.]
Does “always” mean “never” on this blog?
[Wrong!]
Are you OK?
@87
Trend unemployment rate is UP in Qld to 6.1%
Only place it was down was Vic and ACT.
[My understanding is they usually name candidate and party where candidate names are known. Which is fine. Naming candidate only in seat polls is extremely dodgy and naming party only is also not good.]
I have been following twitter re this, not numpties, but Mumble:
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 54m
@sspencer_63 @GrogsGamut @lewiss50 I’m generally sus about Reachtel’s habit of naming candidates. & too early for Forde.]
Spot on Peter Brent.