A quick replay of yesterday’s polling:
• Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.
• Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.
• BludgerTrack, which was formerly updated weekly but will now be brought up to date whenever substantial new data arrives, records no change on two-party preferred from the addition of the two new polls, although the Greens are up on the primary vote at the expense of Labor. However, there’s a fair bit of movement on the state seat projections, with Labor up one in Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania and down one in Queensland for a net gain of two seats. That leaves two state-level projections at which one might well look askance: a finding of no gains for Labor in Queensland, against three gains for them in Western Australia. Whereas poll results in the weeks after the Rudd takeover had Labor outperforming the national result in Queensland as often as not, I now have five data points over the past fortnight all of which have them below. And while three gains in Western Australia certainly seems hard to credit (for one thing, the model is not adequately accounting for Labor losing the Alannah MacTiernan dividend from 2010 in Canning, which at present is rated a probable Labor gain), all five data points from the past fortnight show Labor improving on the 2010 result – a pretty solid result given how noisy small-sample state-level data tends to be.
• As far as I can tell, Labor and Liberal each had one television ad in business yesterday, and they read from much the same tactical script: both are positive, showcase the leader, and appear tailored to launching the parties’ rather nebulous campaign slogans. Kevin Rudd speaks to us of “a new way”, Opposition Leader style, while the actual Opposition Leader makes like Luke Skywalker and offers us “new hope”. The latter effort is a fairly obvious exercise in image softening, but what most stands out for me, having grown accustomed over the years to “face of Australia” advertising being served with a thick layer of political correctness on top (Qantas being an acknowledged leader in the field), is that all but a very small handful of the 50 or so faces in the ad are white.
UPDATE: ReachTEL has published the results of an automated phone poll of 702 respondents in Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith, and it points to a 4% swing to the Liberal National Party paring his margin back to 4.5%. The primary votes from the poll are 45.6% for Kevin Rudd, 41.0% for LNP candidate Bill Glasson and 8.0% for the Greens.
Imacca
Oh, Come on. I fought the good fight with Tabitha/Tabatha.
As William will attest.
Good that Rinehart lost. Not just in a gloating sense.
Next page, Just Me
I’m talking about JBishop not JGillard.
Oh that’s right, only the conservatives can be sexist!
Just Me.
The tech offered the following.
Much of which you will know.
You need a TV tech. Agreed that the antenna may need to be heightened.
Tech needs to measure both signal strength and of greater importance, Spectrum quality.
Assuming it works after adjustments, testing etc. it should be fine.
However, should signal loss subsequently occur.
It is possible, more likely probable that subsequent and maybe intermittent signal loss is caused by any number of beyond your antenna factors. Among them, radio stations, power lines, transformers and so on.
Assuming continued loss, the tech may download forms available via http://www.acma.gov.au/ to request testing of spectrum quality as may be affected by the aforementioned. And you may request this of the tech.
Disregarding my last night on this bit, ACMA need one only request to attend. According to, the agency operates out of four States, not SA however.
But they will come.
Let me know. Un Bel Di.
[Why?]
Because, as I said, he has spent almost 6 years in the portfolio. Countless QTs, Estimates, media interviews and debates.
If I was going to beef up on communications he’d be an obvious brain to pick for detail.
[I wonder how many man hours have been lost for private sector employers over the last month dealing with these 2 depts.]
If private sector employers just paid their taxes and didn’t hire QCs and accountants to find ways to avoid doing so, we wouldn’t need half the people in the ATO.
I just watched the Hockey interview on 730- To me it looks like the LNP are paving the way for really severe cuts and tax rises by saying that the figures provided by treasury are shonky…sorry… ‘not credible’. Is there any other reason they would be saying this?
My mother- a pensioner who lives in Tony Abbott’s electorate- said tonight that the prospect of a government led by him is scaring her silly- we were planning on an overseas trip next year but if the LNP gets in we will be saving our money…
I know or have known quite a few Libs from WA. With the exception of a couple – Fred Chaney and Mal Washer come to mind – most of the rest are a total embarrassment. I’ve known David Johnstone since childhood, for example. I first met Julie Bishop about 15 years ago and Tony Nutt about 35 years ago. They have such a strange worldview, and seem to think the rest of us are complete fools, to be taken in with any old bullshit. They are, above all, voices of division and regression.
[Oh that’s right, only the conservatives can be sexist!]
Don’t be stupid.
So who do YOU think had the better of the campaign the last couple of days?
@Miranda Boltt/1211
Coalition is the same old thing.
Abbott/Hockey will not submit their policies to treasury for costings.
It’s a joke!
The election MUST be delayed until all the voters can compare the costings for both parties 😡
Lateline leaks LNP flagship policy being announced tomorrow
5% or 0.5% tax cut for corporate business at a cost of $5 Billion to government coffers
[Don’t be stupid.]
Yeah I won’t, you do a good job of that yourself!
One last thing on twitter
[When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, Mr Hockey? – Hockey: I change them facts and them numbers. #auspol #abc730]
So a tax cut for big business… But a tax increase for big business to pay for PPL.
You know it makes sense.
5% coy tax cut 😆
I wish!
How can he fund it?
briefly:
I can well believe that Johnstone and JBishop look down their noses at others.
Have you ever met Judy Moylan?
Not surprising about those tax cuts, it’s a typical core policy for the liberals.
[1219
confessions
briefly:
I can well believe that Johnstone and JBishop look down their noses at others.
Have you ever met Judy Moylan?]
confessions, no, never met Moylan. She seems like a well-motivated and open-minded person.
[Oh that’s right, only the conservatives can be sexist!]
Or Racist.
Look at the attacks on the liberal member for Chisholm
[Anthony Brewster @A_J_Brewster 3m
LNP to propose cut of company tax of 1.5% at cost of $5.5 Billion starting July next year. Major announcment due tomorrow. #lateline #auspol]
this will neatly offset the 1.5% “levy” for the #CashForCalibre $3,000 per week for Abbott’s Aryans.
@sprocket_/1223
But cost us tax payers via tax revenue and employees pay no doubt?
[So far, the Coalition campaign has looked pretty ordinary, mainly because Rudd, just by being the leader has cut off all of their communication threads. All they’ve resorted to is Rudd flicking his hair and saying low interest rates are a bad thing. It’s been way off beam for them so far (I’m saying that from their perspective)]
Agreed. The reality is the ALP were 57-43 down just over a month ago, and the fact that they are competitive is more than a minor miracle. Its Rudd’s skills as a political communciator, and its also Abbott’s massive personal unpopularity.
Without these two factors it wouldnt be close. Will it be enough to stop Abbott? The current seat distribution favours the coalition, but its more than possible. its close.
But the ALP need more than they have on the table thoguh: I think Rudd was wise to pre-signal a shift on marriage equality – and this is probably whats lacking: something for the progressives and Gen Y to actualy get excited about. At the moment amny of that group are leaning GRNs, or just unexcited.
Neutralising the right wing issues is never enough for the ALP to win. Bring a light on the hill at this point: and I for one believe the ALP will get home.
But do it this week – so some of the 1.4 million unenrolled Gen Ys have a reason to bother getting involved! I cant see any other issue thats going to shift them at this point.
Anthony Brewster @A_J_Brewster 9m
LNP to propose cut of company tax of 1.5% at cost of $5.5 Billion starting July next year. Major announcment due tomorrow. #lateline #auspol
Retweeted by DeborahAnn
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is this to pay for ppl but I thought that was not a goer now
big discussion on twitter about this to pay for ppl
briefly:
Moylan used to be my local member when I lived in Perth. I think I met her once, but can’t really remember.
So Abbott is going to raise coy tax by 1.5% to fund his PPL but then he is going to lower coy tax by 1.5%.
So how is he going to fund his PPL?
This is comedy gold, it’s got to be 😆
The Libs always try to run on tax cuts. But offering tax cuts to business when the deficit is in the red and services are being cut…very far fetched. Company tax as a share of the economy is higher here than in comparable economies, but most of our big firms are oligopolies who enjoy protected markets, are foreign-owned, or both. Tax cuts for the large corporates is really a way of giving tax breaks to foreign investors.
What we really need to do is break up the tax shelters in property and Super that tend to drive capital misallocation.
[Simon Banks @SimonBanksHB 7m
I’ll debate @TurnbullMalcolm Name time and place. I’ll be there but you won’t release #PBO costing of @NBNCo because you know you’re wrong]
Seems everyone wants to debate MT. Only Abbott is the one running away from debates.
A drop in company tax. Could be a good thing for the budget.
Thats a gift to Rudd: it means the LNP are bringing $5.5b in cuts to services.
here is a hard-hitting ad from the NSW nurses.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W9YFMl-Vy8&feature=youtu.be
so company tax receipts are collapsing as we were advised on friday and what is the coalitions signature policy reduce company tax. i guess we would expect nothing less from a would be treasurer who thinks an interest rate cut is bad for consumers. this is bush like economics.
A policy announcement like this will only get the Coalition’s traditional supporters excited. ACCI etc will be patting them on the back. Meanwhile this gives everyone else another opportunity to rip in to them about making yet more promises without giving us any information about what will be cut. Most voters could not care less about the rate of company tax. But they will care a lot about job and service cuts, which get steeper and steeper with every announcement aimed at the big end of town.
My mother- a pensioner who lives in Tony Abbott’s electorate- said tonight that the prospect of a government led by him is scaring her silly- we were planning on an overseas trip next year but if the LNP gets in we will be saving our money…
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tell mum she is not alone, we want to go to Holland again and cornwall will not go if he is in will have to save our supper
[1227
confessions
briefly:
Moylan used to be my local member when I lived in Perth. I think I met her once, but can’t really remember.]
I saw a bit of her valedictory speech, which I thought was a plea for reason and an appeal to reduce the malice in our politics….made a good impression on me.
amazing cannot find money for more than 2 years of gonski
typical the pay their master well
Well its another day of the LNP losing voters and everyone else gaining them tomorrow 🙂
Goodnight
Howard was able to lower coy tax from 36% to 30%. That was certainly a positive move for the economy.
If Abbott can show how he intends to lower coy tax further – I’m listening 😎
Some karma for the Dirty Digger it would appear, with the 82 year old fighting on many fronts…
[Here’s the worst kept secret in London — a secret that London’s archaic rules about legal proceedings keep from being published. E-mails in the trial about phone hacking and police bribery by Murdoch employees will show, according to myriad reports circulating on the Internet and broad hints in British papers, that Rebekah Brooks had a long-term affair with Andy Coulson, the former editor of Murdoch’s louchest tabloid, The News of the World, which was closed for its part in phone hacking in 2011.
Coulson, also on trial, lost his job at the News of the World in the hacking case. Brooks then helped put him into the job of press secretary for future Prime Minister David Cameron. Her deal, according to theories which the prosecution may pursue in court, was that if Cameron hired Brooks’ lover, Coulson, she’d help get Murdoch, who may or may not have been her lover, too (and who never much liked Cameron), to support him.]
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/wolff/2013/08/05/michael-wolff-murdoch-becomes-tabloid-subject/2621141/
Suggest you all watch this – to the end!
http://media.theage.com.au/national/selections/election-barometer-the-real-numbers-men-4633821.html
Work out what the extra revenue from a rise in the share market would generate.Work out what the dumping of labors current parental leave scheme would equate to. Work out what some extra employment would be and if this is infront of the tax deduction then it could be budget positive.
david ewart @davidbewart 14m
Jaymes disastrous Diaz was asked about 1.5 % company tax yesterday by ch10. He had NFI TOMORROW the libs will take the tax off. Coincidence?
Retweeted by Bridget O’Flynn
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what does the above mean any ideas
“The Kalkadoon probably stood best in a stand-up battle.”
As ‘Cub Scouts’ we wore ‘Kalkadoon’ badges; I never knew if this was ironic, pitiful or intended to honour them.
Someone as historically learned as ‘Psephos’ could hardly be ignorant about the settler battles/massacres of indigenous Australians, so I’m amazed he’d play semantic games about it.
@Centre
True. The big difference between then and now of course is that at the time Howard was doing this, he had unprecedented revenue streaming in thanks to the mining boom. Whoever is in Government post September 7 is not going to have any such luxury for the foreseeable future. So Abbott’s answer to this is, Erode revenue even further. He can only pay for this with more of the cuts he’s still yet to reveal.
You can work that our all day Slimaj.
The punters will be working out what they just saved on their mortgage today.
🙂 Nite all.
I support a cut in company tax. Business needs to drive growth to give government room to reduce the deficit over time. If the rumour is correct then it’s an excellent move.
lefty e, I liked your point earlier on same sex marriage and I think it is actually quite an important issue for plenty of voters. While obviously the economy is the main issue, SSM will be a good wedge issue to motivate many in the the base to volunteer/donate more and attract younger voters (i.e. those who are inclined towards informal, or even those who don’t see any difference between the two parties and are leaning Liberal because “at least they have their shit together”).
I know it goes against the realpolitik line of thinking and it’s not going to be the issue that decides the election but, in a potentially close election that this one could well be, it certainly could bring crucial support.
(I base my assessment on younger voters on my interaction with uni students, many of whom are undecided but would support the SSM party)
[I’ve known David Johnstone since childhood, for example.]
Briefly, if you’re still here. As you may know I worked as chief of staff to Senator Feeney as Parl Sec for Defence, and I sat in a number of meetings with Johnstone as shadow defence minister. He struck me as unpleasant, pompous and rather thick. Is that a fair comment? (I’m obviously biased, but I have met smart Liberals.)