Another double header in our ongoing scramble to cover potential Coalition-held seats of interest.
Dunkley (Liberal 1.1%)
Dunkley covers an area of bayside Melbourne about 40 kilometres from the city centre which has been effectively unchanged by the redistribution. It consists of two distinct electoral parts, with Labor-leaning Frankston and its northern coastal neighbour Seaford slightly outweighed by blue-ribbon Mount Eliza immediately to the south. The electorate further extends south to Liberal-leaning Mornington along the coast, and inland to marginal Langwarrin. The north-south electoral cleavage reflects a straightforward divide in incomes, the area being notably Anglo at both ends.
Dunkley was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984 and won for Labor on its inauguration by Robert Chynoweth, who had cut short Peter Reith’s brief first stint in parliament by winning Flinders for Labor at the 1983 election. Chynoweth was re-elected with a small swing in 1987 and then gained a 3.9% boost with a redistribution that shifted the electorate further north, exchanging Mornington for Chelsea. However, even this was not sufficient to hold back a tide that costs Labor nine Victorian seats at the 1990 election, with Liberal candidate Frank Ford gaining the seat off a 6.8% swing. Chynoweth ran again in 1993 and emerged a surprise winner, securing a slender 0.6% margin after a 1.9% swing. Hope for another term was effectively dashed when a new redistribution effectively undid the last, leaving Chynoweth defending a negative margin at a losing election.
The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Bruce Billson, who by the 2004 election had built enough of a buffer to survive the reverse that has played out with 5.3% and 3.0% swings over successive elections. Billson rose to the outer ministry portfolio of veterans affairs in the last two years of the Howard government and then to the front bench in opposition, but he was demoted to the outer ministry by Malcolm Turnbull after backing other horses in leadership ballots. He would return in the small business portfolio when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009, holding it and related portfolios ever since. His Labor opponent is Sonya Kilkenny, a commercial lawyer from Seaford.
Macquarie (Liberal 1.3%)
Located on the western fringes of Sydney, Macquarie combines the solidly Liberal-voting Hawkesbury River area around Richmond and Windsor and Labor-voting communities on the Great Western Highway through the Blue Mountains. The seat has existed in name since federation but has changed substantially voer its history, having originally been concentrated on Bathurst and Lithgow. Those areas came to be accommodated by Calare after the 1977 and 1984 redistributions, the latter effecting further change by transferring Penrith and St Marys to the new seat of Lindsay. Macquarie briefly resumed its former dimensions between 2007 and 2010, when Calare moved deep into the state’s interior to cover the abolition of Gwydir and Macquarie lost the Hawkesbury area to Greenway. This resulted in a brief interruption to a Liberal hold on the seat going back to 1996, which was resumed in 2010 when Louise Markus succeeding in transferring to the seat from unfavourably redistributed Greenway.
Macquarie’s most famous former member is Ben Chifley, who was born and raised in Bathurst and first elected to the seat in 1928. Chifley was voted out in the 1931 landslide, twice failing to recover the seat before finally breaking through in 1940. Labor thereafter held the seat without interruption until the dark days of 1975 and 1977, with Ross Free recovering the seat with Labor’s improved performance in 1980. Free jumped to the new seat of Lindsay when parliament was enlarged in 1984, which took in the strong Labor areas of Penrith and St Marys. The slender margin left to Labor in Macquarie was erased by a slight swing at the 1984 election, and the seat held for the Liberals for the next three terms by Alasdair Webster. Maggie Deahm won the seat for Labor in 1993 by 164 votes, a margin that was easily accounted for by a 6.5% swing to Liberal candidate Kerry Bartlett when the Keating government was dumped in 1996. Bartlett’s margin progressed from 4.1% at the 1998 election to 8.9% at the 2004 election, at which point the aforementioned redistribution pulled the rug from under his feet.
Macquarie now had a notional Labor margin of 0.5%, to which the locally familiar Bob Debus added another 6.6% as Kevin Rudd led Labor to office. The Hawkesbury area meanwhile came to be represented Louise Markus, a former Hillsong Church community worker who in 2004 won the seat of Greenway for the Liberals for the first time since it was created in 1984. The redistribution then inflated her margin in Greenway from 0.6% to 11.0%, of which 4.5% remained after the 2007 election. The effect of the 2010 redistribution was even more pronounced, producing a 10.2% shift to Labor in Greenway while all but eliminating Labor’s margin in Macquarie. Upon jumping ship for Macquarie, where her task was aided by Debus’s retirement, Markus picked up a relatively mild swing of 1.5% that was nonetheless sufficient to secure her a margin of 1.2%. Markus meanwhile was promoted to the outer shadow ministry portfolio of veterans affairs in September 2008, but dropped after the 2010 election.
Labor’s election for the second successive elections is Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who promotes herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”.
Sean Tisme
Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 2:33 pm | Permalink
As dumb as making an announcement about deploying the military to fight leaky wooden boats without consulting with the military
The military takes orders from the government, not the other way round.
Try to engage your brain occasionally.
———————————————————–
Abbott has politicised the Military.
You should try getting an education about the separation of military and government before you make comment.
Constitutional experts and former defence secretary Paul Barratt warned that the Opposition’s proposal would require a rewriting of the Defence Act. He said the plan had enormous risk of creating a “swashbuckling outfit” outside normal controls.
Abbott is at Stockman Hall of Fame
[ zoidlord
Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 2:16 pm | Permalink
@jv/218
Well – lol. Young public attacking Labor but not Coalition Policy?
WTF.]
Rudd can have his cake and eat it too over this issue. Abbott could promise open borders and the very mob that is protesting about Labor here would still find a way to put the Coalition last.
Abbott still thinks Mobiles the killing feature of fraud band
[Molan, incidentally, was the cluck who persuaded Abbott to go public with a call for our tanks to be sent to Afghanistan]
Wouldn’t surprise me if Molan was calling for amphibious tanks to be used to stop the boats.
It is a longstanding Westminster system convention that our defence force is an apolitical institution that defends all Australians equally,” the ADA said.
“This has long meant not placing the ADF in situations where it risks being the focus of party-political or other serious community controversy.”
“Because we won’t be replacing all the copper there will be more mobile phone towers that can operate”.
Abbott.
Work THAT one out!
“@ABCNews24: Abbott: I’m not going to be deterred by any agency from doing what is necessary to stop the boats”
Rural press giving some tough questions. 🙂
Oh what a surprise cut and run
guytaur
Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 2:49 pm | Permalink
“@ABCNews24: Abbott: I’m not going to be deterred by any agency from doing what is necessary to stop the boats”
—————————————————–
arrogance and ignorance exhibited in one sentence
Guytaur
Regarding the AFL drugs story sorry I do not know. I did not see the presser and am only going on what I have read.
That is sufficient though, for me to form the view that this is a criminal matter, not a question about sporting ethics. I fear club officials are not off the hook either, it is not just Dank and co. The club officials have a duty of care as employers to protect their players, which they appear to have failed.
BK
[“Because we won’t be replacing all the copper there will be more mobile phone towers that can operate”.]
Has Abbott been getting lessons from Katter?
[“@ABCNews24: Abbott: I’m not going to be deterred by any agency from doing what is necessary to stop the boats”]
And if the Australian Navy says it is impossible, Mr Abbott?
Interesting that the Liberals dredged up a retired army general to defend their policy. Logically the people who should know the answer are not the army but the navy. Even more interesting is that former Admiral Chris Barrie, who should know, thinks the coalition policy is nuts.
@BK/256
Ummm which still doesn’t address the issues of the remaining part of the network – the last mile.
263
I am sure that that if the Navy does not like the policy, their boats will be counted as boats to be stopped.
Why would a land-lubber general from the Army know less about boat policy than a retired Navy admiral?
[“Because we won’t be replacing all the copper there will be more mobile phone towers that can operate”.
]
Everyone has missed the meaning of Abbott’s speech last week to the Queensland LNP conference. He said “the drums are calling, the drums are calling..”
Obviously he meant that fibre optic cable was no longer needed as he had investigated the use of tom-toms to convey messages. Every mobile phone tower would be fitted with a seat for a drummer to relay messages. Instantly there is a saving of $billions.
All the people in PNG moved to Australia…. suprise f’ing surprise!!
Gutless wonders!
What message does this send to the people smugglers?
@Sean/268
Not sure what you mean, TPVs anyone?
[Thomas. Paine.
Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 11:59 am | Permalink
I’m sure Labor would call an election the moment they thought they had a reasonable chance of winning.
The longer they wait though the more youth that are getting registered you would think. Also the longer they wait the more it will become apparent that the Coalition have no policies outside of AS boat whining,whilst Rudd Labor is on the move again with other stuff.]
Also, as a friend of mine pointed out to me, the longer they wait the more government money they can use on advertising government services and policies, especially the new rules regarding ASs. The Liberals have always spent plenty pf public money getting themselves re-elected so why shouldn’t labor?
Zoidlord,
Everyone who has come by boat under Labor has arrived in Australia.
Labor are so full of crap. Nobody believes they are tough, they are gutless.
Sean Tisme
Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 3:13 pm | Permalink
All the people in PNG moved to Australia…. suprise f’ing surprise!!
Gutless wonders!
What message does this send to the people smugglers?
———————————————————
The truth is that all people who could be moved have been moved.
The message is – we have the space on Manus….beds are ready and waiting for those who get on a boat for the trip to Manus and never Australia
Tom 266
Snap! Exactly. Generals are not the ones floating around in the Timor Sea, doing the job. Jim Molan spent most of his latter career at the ADF Academy based in Canberra.
There is the truth
There are lies, damned lies then what Sean peddles somewhere after that
2011-12 over 4,000 asylum seekers were denied
Does anyone think that perhaps ST is a junior staffer (or volunteer) practising his lines in the hope he’ll get promoted up the Liberal ladder?
lizzie@276
Lizzie – Its just truthie from townsville. As usual.
Primary Protection visa grant rates are at 71%
dave
I’m very tired of the cliches.
I prefer more creative stupidity.
I’ve noticed that whenever TA is making an announcement or appearing on TV all comments from Sean stop.
Is he so enthralled/stupid he cant do two things at once??
or
is he really Tony Abbott???
Every time one of the govt ministers quoted the “Libs agree on the same target” I thought it was a weak line. It did not differentiate Lib from Labor (I omit Nats because I’m not sure that they have agreed 🙁 )
Maley:
[Both sides of politics have committed to the same target: to cut Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions (on the levels they were at in 2000) by 5 per cent by 2020. Beyond 2020, the government has further emissions reduction targets out to 2050, but the Coalition has not endorsed them.
But in the short term, we are agreed on where we are going. The difference is on how we get there.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/when-everything-is-a-crisis-who-should-you-believe-20130726-2qph6.html#ixzz2aDlnTvLp
Lizzie – The scrolling bit is getting more repetitive.
AussieA
Sitting in front of TA, absorbing the words of the Master.
That will certainly stretch his brain 😀
CTar1
Sometimes I accidentally read it before the automatic scroll. Especially when someone else re-posts the whole bluddy thing.
😛
Crikey and others posted thoughtfully on the general questions of asylum seekers earlier today. In particular Crikey posted a lonk to this very detailed report by the UN into migrant smuggling.
http://www.unodc.org/documents/southeastasiaandpacific//Publications/2012/Thematic_Review_eBook_version_17_August_2012.pdf
Regardless of what is the right answer, the first stepis to understand the problem. Hence kudos, Crikey and I recommend this report to others!
A few key points are in it:
– there really is a problem with people smuggling and boat people. There is a high degree of criminal activity involved, including fraud, corruption and even (involuntary) human trafficking.
– no doubt some are genuinely fleeing persecution, however many are not, but are seeking a better life. The UN report hardly uses the term asylum seeker. They are seeking citizenship.
– Having or not having documents means little, as fraudulent documents, or legitimate but false documents, are so easily obtained in the departure countries.
– from a compassionate viewpoint, these immigrants are not the poorest. They are paying anywhere from $5k to $30k each per journey.
This only reinforces the view I have expressed that the UN convention of 1951 is obsolete. The UN does not want countries like Australia to stop accepting displaced persons, because they are struggling to feed and find homes for millions. But whether the persons the UN is focused on are the most needy, or the most persecuted or at risk, is very debateable.
I do not mean to say by this that the PNG policy is good. But I do think we can say that a policy of automatic acceptance is not sustainable either socially or economically. Nor is it ethically superior, as it has resulted in risk taking behaviour, large scale organised crime, and a distortion in the makeup of our immigrant intake that benfits some groups, but therefore disadvantages others that may be more needy.
AA on Sean
[is he really Tony Abbott???]
No, vocabulary is too large, range of thought not narrow enough. He needs to tighten the speedos further to match the boss.
lizzie
Suspect we are all going see heaps of stupidity of all types in coming weeks.
Maybe there will be some that is creative, but doubt it.
Tony Abbott, who has fallen off more horses than he has ever got on, just got run out of the Stockmans Hall of Fame by the tough questioning Camel Corps Correspondents of the Nth Queensland Press.
Run Tony Run …….
Surprise surprise Combet’s staffer won the preselection for Charlton!
Eighty nine poeple voted in that preselection and the electorate is home to 55,000 voters. Apparently even some of the 102 elegible voters didn’t turn up to vote.
That shows you just how far into the deep NSW Labor is!
Well I reckon the boats crap has been talked to death in the media now and the public sick to death of it with labor killing any Liberal advantages.
If Abbott keeps on about It for weeks the public will have had a gut full of it and him.
He can beat the can and whistle but will look pretty lame while Rudd and Co. are talking jobs, economy and health.
Re: the 5% unconditional 2020 target below 1990 levels, I believe the ALP’s target is still a 5%-25% conditional target, whereas I don’t believe the LNP have ever committed to anything beyond the 5% unconditional target.
While the conditional range might be seen as a weasel commitment, and just treated cynically as the 5% unconditional, as I understand it the determination as to whether the target is increased to a higher target, based on international action of which there is quite a bit, is determined by one of the independent commissions established as part of the clean energy future bills.
I’m not sure whether there is still political input into any decision to increase the target (ie whether a future ALP or LNP government that hasn’t repealed the legislation can wriggle out of that commitment), but if it’s an automatic independent process assessing international action and adjusting the target, then the ALP clearly has a higher 2020 target than the LNP does.
All of this “they’re all the same” is still bunk.
55,000 ALP VOTERS is what I should have said and the Conroy staffer who won is Pat Conroy!
Not my day today it should be Combet’s staffer not Conroy.
MTBW
[Surprise surprise Combet’s staffer won the preselection for Charlton!}
That is OK with me.
Who do you think should have got up?
T.P
[Well I reckon the boats crap has been talked to death in the media]
I don’t think so.
@Sean
Yep, settled in Australia just as they were under Howard. Think you are going to con the smugglers twice with a whole lot of tough talk when they now know that the Coalition weren’t serious? Not going to happen. Abbott can talk about restructuring command all he likes, that will not stop a single boat coming.
MTBW
Oh wow 13 people could not attend the vote, call a national emergency.
MTBW@289
Didn’t rudd ‘fix it’ all last week.
He lied!
While Tony is in Qld, shadowy cabinet types are meeting in Sydney.
Galaxy poll tonight
PVO says it is “fascinating” which is code for dodgy business afoot.