David Penberthy on Twitter conveys tomorrow’s Sunday Mail front page, showing a Galaxy poll conducted on Thursday and Friday evenings has the Coalition leading 51-49 (compared with 55-45 in the poll a fortnight ago), with Kevin Rudd holding a 51-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister. More to follow.
UPDATE: I can reveal the poll has Labor’s primary vote up six to 38%, 57% supporting the leadership change, and 52% thinking Bill Shorten personally did the right thing in switching to Rudd against 30% for the wrong thing. Still a few gaps to be filled there of course.
UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables: Coalition down three to 44%, Greens down one to 10%.
@YB/50
Where they should bloody be!
confessions
[Newspoll was last week, Neilsen the week before IIRC.]
Yes, but I thought the week’s events would be worth unscheduled polls this weekend. I thought they’d be jumping out of their skins to do them.
Psephos
Trots? I regularly bet on the Gallops, and occasionally on the Greyhounds; but I never go near the Trots.
Not getting excited until either a Neilsen or Newspoll. Seriously a Poll on Thursday means nothing as the public have not digested anything on a policy or party front. Given he is the guy who sabotaged the last few years for Labor just who are all these hundreds of thousands of people changing their votes certainly nobody who follows politics closely north an likely the politically is engaged and of course parochial Queenslanders.
It was always expected that Rudd not Labor would get a honey an like every new leader always does. He will definitely save quite a bit of furniture in Brisbane and western Sydney.
Btw I like Psephos and his very worthy contributions.
Another good poll for Labor.
The leadership change has created an opportunity, it is up to all supporters to determine how hard they want to campaign to take that opportunity.
This election won’t simply be won or lost based on the Rudd V Abbott match up. All 150 campaigns in the House count.
I have not noticed much of the “Mr” tag for Rudd. I have seen lots of “Kevins” and “Rudds” and sometimes “the PM, Kevin Rudd” but I have not noticed much difference in nomenclature related to gender as was the case, perhaps, with JG.
“1 December 2008
Government welcomes a bipartisan report on immigration detention The Minister for Immigration and Citizenship, Senator Chris Evans, today welcomed the first report of the inquiry into immigration detention by the Joint Standing Committee on Migration.
Senator Evans said he was pleased that the Committee, which includes senior Liberal MPs and the Shadow Immigration Minister Sharman Stone, has endorsed the Rudd Government’s abolition of John Howard’s inhumane approach to immigration detention.”
SHARMAN STONE: We don’t need the Pacific Solution now, that’s Nauru Island and Manus Island, because we have the Christmas Island centre completed. A very well structured and appropriate facility for people who need to be, of course, detained very, very, so I say humanely, so they very quickly can have their identities, their security, their character and health status checked. So we don’t need alternatives to Nauru and Manus island, we have Christmas Island.
So back in 2008 the Coalition fully supported Labor’s move to dismantle the Pacific Solution, Why ? Because PM John Howard had decided to spend $400 million upgrading the Christmas Island detention centre to a facility that would accommodate 800 asylum seekers. Why would he do that if the boats had stopped coming?
Obviously John Howard was thinking “down the track”, he knew that the Pacific Solution was unsustainable, he realised that it was only a matter of time before the Pacific Solution would have to be scrapped because it was a very expensive and extremely inhumane policy to stop the boats.”
Good poll considering it is so close to so much labor bloodletting and people still haven’t internalised Tone as PM. May be a lot more votes out there.
[Psephos
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 8:47 pm | PERMALINK
Melbourne is winning, Rudd is PM – WTF is going on? #afldeesdogs #auspol]
Rupert’s gunna build you up, just to let you down.
Did you really believe he didn’t mean the message to his ‘independent’ editors for an election now?
jaundiced view
“Fran Barlow
Psephos is serial liar on asylum seekers. He is a hunter gatherer of racists. I’m surprised anyone would use him, given his intra-factional agenda, as an authority on anything. He has form. I gave the true legal position earlier. If you missed it just ask.”
The legal argument about whether seeking asylum is legal is quaint and rather pointless. It’s highly evident that Australian voters DO NOT CARE if seeking asylum is legal or not – they want the board stopped REGARDLESS.
Face facts: the left lost this argument long ago. Australians want a strong border and they regard it as a prerequisite for gaining and obtaining political power. Parties of the left who aspire to relevance ignore this simple fact at their doom.
For the record, I tend to agree that asylum seekers have a legal right to seek asylum however they arrive. But if I were to disagree with you it wouldn’t make me a racist and Psephos isn’t either.
Tricot
[
By the way who can expound on this offer by Rudd to take Abbott to the G20? What’s behind this?
]
Firstly it would take the mouse along with the cat while it is away. A bit of messing with his mind as well . If Abbott turns it down he will look a bit churlish at turning down such an offer. If he says yes he will be basically left to hang around like a shag on a rock at the G20 . Left to watch Kevvie do all the “exciting” stuff.
briefly
Psephos repeatedly follows the Libs and deliberately calls asylum seekers ‘illegal’. He knows better, and deserves to be called on it. It is a disgusting cheap lie that attempts to demonise desperate people for political purposes. I won’t tolerate it.
Tricot:
I thought Howard just looked past it. The Liberals should allow the poor man to settle into his dotage and move on from the cameras and life front and centre.
However, having been bitten once by Team Abbott’s remarkable capacity for comeback, I am not getting ahead of myself in terms of trying to read things into his speeches which aren’t there.
He looked his normal self today, except he had a few more catchy slogans to throw around, all of which were given salience by the events in Labor of the past few weeks.
Current polling would suggest Coalition to gain 4 seats using 51-49 to Coalition 2PP.
According to ABC Election Calculator.
Who has some figures on the bounce that Gillard got in June 2010? My recollection is that it wasn’t very big, although she did get some better polls at the start of the campaign, before Tanner’s sabotage.
[Obviously John Howard was thinking “down the track”, he knew that the Pacific Solution was unsustainable, he realised that it was only a matter of time before the Pacific Solution would have to be scrapped because it was a very expensive and extremely inhumane policy to stop the boats.”]
And most people detained in the Pacific Solution ended up in Australia or New Zealand!
[Psephos repeatedly follows the Libs and deliberately calls asylum seekers ‘illegal’. He knows better, and deserves to be called on it. It is a disgusting cheap lie that attempts to demonise desperate people for political purposes. I won’t tolerate it.]
What are you going to do, report me to the NKVD?
Under normal circumstances if polls were showing a government in this position this close to an election with a PM this much more popular than his counterpart you’d be thinking the government was in a good position to win the up coming election.
Stop dropping the fucken ball
absolutetwaddle
“For the record, I tend to agree that asylum seekers have a legal right to seek asylum however they arrive. But if I were to disagree with you it wouldn’t make me a racist and Psephos isn’t either.”
You can’t ‘tend to agree’ with the law. I did say Psephos knows better. He does it for political purposes.
[Psephos
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 9:10 pm | PERMALINK
Who has some figures on the bounce that Gillard got in June 2010? My recollection is that it wasn’t very big, although she did get some better polls at the start of the campaign, before Tanner’s sabotage.]
What!
You don’t know the figures offhand, but you release the identity of the Oakes’ leak offhand.
Way to go.
You’re unravelling before our eyes if you believe the headlines of News Ltd.
Psephos
The Gaming Authority the way you talk.
The preferred PM is quite a shocker to the libs. Wait till people get close to the election and thinkcabout Tone PM.
Lib attack ads obviously having a BiG impact – not.
The preferred PM is quite a shocker to the libs. Wait till people get close to the election and thinkcabout Tone PM.
Lib attack ads obviously having a BiG impact – not.
[“For the record, I tend to agree that asylum seekers have a legal right to seek asylum however they arrive. ]
There is no such thing as asylum under Australian law. They have the right to apply for refugee status, as I’ve said many times. Unless and until they are granted that status, they are unlawful non-citizens (s14 Migration Act).
Gary -totally right.
Confessions – I agree with you. The Libs are sometimes like cockroaches – and I don’t want to be mean to those critter, but even when they look squished they get up and run again.
My thoughts are we are now down to a kind of “show and tell” period in the run up to the elections.
Everything is so shallow that it is the show that counts not the substance.
Rudd was doing his strutting stuff and Abbott swinging down the aisle with what looked to be two of his daughters.
While it all should be about policy, the fact that Julia tried to hammer away at this – and I agreed with her approach – but that it did not seem to cut any ice with the electorate, means bread and circuses will be the go for the coming weeks.
If, at the end of the day, Rudd has to prove himself to be the better showman to keep Labor in power, it seems this is what the punters want.
A “Grand Final” between Rudd and Abbott as it has been portrayed.
Sophie M at Rally
________
The Libs desperation was no where more evident than they role they gave Sophie M in their mini-Nuremberg Rally today)and in the front row behinfd Abbott was Bernardi)..a real Tea Party !
and old Howard here too..all they lacked was Lord Downer of Cyprus
[Who has some figures on the bounce that Gillard got in June 2010? My recollection is that it wasn’t very big, although she did get some better polls at the start of the campaign, before Tanner’s sabotage.]
There was hardly any Gillard bounce:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/03/the-gillard-bounce-barely-existed-what.html
[shellbell
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 9:15 pm | PERMALINK
Stop dropping the fucken ball]
I’m hanging onto it for grim death.
Just not sure who to pass it to.
Close your eyes, shellbell, put your hands out, it’s coming your way.
Do good with it, now.
As Gary says, most govts would be pretty happy with this sort of polling a few months before an election, and would expect to fairly easily make up the difference and win
Psephos
[They have the right to apply for refugee status, as I’ve said many times. Unless and until they are granted that status, they are unlawful non-citizens (s14 Migration Act).]
I’ve been wondering for a while: how do they apply on a turned-back boat?
[I’ve been wondering for a while: how do they apply on a turned-back boat?]
They can’t. They can only apply for asylum to a representative of the Department of Immigration.
Members of the Australian Navy aren’t representatives of that department.
The preferred PM is quite a shocker to the libs.
Kevin Rudd can be trusted as far as one can throw Tony Abbott and vice-versa. The figures suggest that one can throw Tony further than one can throw Kevin.
Sarah
You will be selected for the Wallabies based on that
poroti@61
Thanks for that. I hope it does A’s head in.
Tricot:
The team behind Abbott have done a remarkable job with him given the limited material they had to work with. They have essentially crafted a statesman out of a flake, albeit with significant propping up from the media.
Now that the media has had its Gillard flogging stick taken away from it, it remains to be seen how the media responds to the state of play as it stands.
This isn’t fair!
Why the hell are we going to vote in a has-been from 3 years ago that we were going to vote out 3 years ago but now are memories are so short we are going to vote this idiot.
FFS!
shellbell
[You will be selected for the Wallabies based on that]
Does that mean you scored a try?
Hard.
The really interesting legal question with Abbott’s policy is if the government orders the RAN to “turn back” a boat and the RAN personnel on the spot make a judgement that doing so would place the safety of the people on the boat at risk, in violation of Australia’s obligations under the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea. Neither governments nor senior officers have the right to order service personnel to carry out illegal acts. RAN personnel would be within their rights to refuse to carry out such orders.
[I’ve been wondering for a while: how do they apply on a turned-back boat?]
They need to present to a DIMIA officer or equivalent, as I understand it.
ShowsOn
[They can’t. They can only apply for asylum to a representative of the Department of Immigration.]
Then why aren’t they allowed to meet such a representative to apply? We have UN obligations that we should not be circumventing on a technicality.
shellbell
Or that the Wallabies are losers?
Psephos
[There is no such thing as asylum under Australian law. They have the right to apply for refugee status, as I’ve said many times. Unless and until they are granted that status, they are unlawful non-citizens (s14 Migration Act).]
Another lie. The Convention & Charter are part of Australian law. To the extent local law conflicts with the Convention, the international law prevails. The High Court has said this again and again in smashing the govt in the last couple of years. Why continue this transparent misrepresentation?
I link again, for ‘the viewers at home’ an expert explanation of the true legal position:
http://m.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/use-of-term-illegal-is-ignorant-or-mischievous-20130423-2ibqv.html
Sarah
There was better ball handling in the slush at the SCG last nught
Sky News just reported that ‘asylum seekers’ will be the cornerstone issue of the election.
For two years it’s been leadership, economy and taxes.
Almost instantly, it’s boats, and only boats.
Panic mode.
[88
Sean Tisme
This isn’t fair!]
This is one of the funniest posts I’ve ever seen. You have a hidden talent for comedy, bogus. “Not fair!” Fabulous.
[ Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition, Rudd leads 51-34 on PPM ]
Thats a narrowing!
Eat your heart out abbott.
[Psephos
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 9:30 pm | PERMALINK
The really interesting legal question with Abbott’s policy is if the government orders the RAN to “turn back” a boat and the RAN personnel on the spot make a judgement that doing so would place the safety of the people on the boat at risk, in violation of Australia’s obligations under the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea. Neither governments nor senior officers have the right to order service personnel to carry out illegal acts. RAN personnel would be within their rights to refuse to carry out such orders]
That’s not interesting at all. That’s maritime law, coded or not.
The interesting thing is you just outed Tanner for being Rudd’s leaker to undermine Gillard.
That’s what’s interesting in this neck of the woods.
This was to be expected. Rudd was always going to bring a big bounce. It’s about what I expected. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight ALP lead. The question is, can the bounce be maintained or will Rudd Mk2 be another Latham?