A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.
Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.
+43
I think they’re just taking their time. I suspect both candidates spoke at length with passion.
7:45 or 8 for result 2 sources telling Latika
Nelson Mandela has reportedly passed away.
I remind people it took ages last time.
Each candidate speaks, everyone then votes (two at a time), then each candidate speaks again….
s
samantha maiden samantha maiden @samanthamaiden 15s
Gillard backers confirming from inside ALP caucus that Julia Gillard has lost the leadership but no word yet on final count.
43, 47, 57 …
“@jamesmassola: Labor MP text: voting is finished.”
+44
A song just for tonight
_________
http://www.angelfire.com/pq/svechka/Hannes_Wader__35__Die_Internationale.mp3
Caucus knows that PB freezes at 8pm AEST. The result will be announced then.
8)
Latika Bourke Latika Bourke @latikambourke 1m
Varying timings from several sources but Libs are going to meet for a special partyroom meeting post Labor leadership change (presuming one)
+45
[Nelson Mandela has reportedly passed away.]
…his legend will continue.
+46
Yeah, turns out Bazza Cazza was right. Just like Bob Gosford was. Denialism stocks down 5% on the All Ords.
And ive got shocking news for several people: the polls werent being rigged either.
boers …point is?
ML
Aye, there was a man.
Does Howes lose his house?
Meanwhile, Senator Louise Pratt giving adjournment debate speech in the Senate.
Boerwar,
Come and join me for a drink or several. Plenty of time.
Maybe there will also be some discussion about the front bench. They still have to go into HOR tomorrow. Or don’t they? Or will positions remain until the GG has made her decision?
+47
[Julia Gillard will play a very significant role in public life down the track, I feel certain. She is a remarkable person.]
That she is. If she loses I wish her all the very best for the future and thank her for everything she has achieved over the last six years.
I don’t accept we have to think Gillard should be supported because she is a woman. This is the sort of stuff that puts the public off Labor spin.
Men can be useless and incompetent at their jobs. We accept that.
Women can be useless and incompetent at their jobs. The left have problems accepting that.
It’s not because she’s a woman that Gillard is incompetent and useless, it’s because Gillard the person is incompetent and useless.
TLBD
We’ll be crossing he equator ere long…
If Mandela has just passed away his Long Walk to Freedom has just begun.
@BBCWorld: Leading South African cleric prays for “eternal healing & relief from pain & suffering” for Nelson #Mandela http://t.co/zmXDpAI4Qz
lizzie:
Confidence in the new leader will be tested on the floor of the HoR tomorrow.
Moving Forwards…. to 2007 🙂
lefty
Didn’t he say something about PMJG being “tapped on the shoulder”. If so, no, he was wrong.
+48
samantha maiden @samanthamaiden 1m
Gillard backer text from inside ALP caucus when asked if PM is gone. “yes.”
Conroy presumably preparing his resignation. Add that to the list of advantages Rudd took into the ballot.
+49
@RANews: No official update on Nelson #Mandela despite erroneous twitter reports of his passing
Boerwar,
and?
“@sallysaraABC: No official update on Mandela. Crowds still outside hospital gates. #Mandela”
5AA going on about McTernan’s (sp?) self interest and ineptitude.
Knitting and shit. Allegedly had already been seeking other jobs.
Some sympathy for Reuben the dog, having to move house.
Next first dog will know where all the bones are buried.
What are you doing, Boerwar?
Prediction: there won’t be the hysterical OTT language such as ‘knifing’, ‘assassination’ and sundry other ridiculous terms associated with this leadership change.
+50
Now, launch the secret weapon: the MSM endlessly replaying internecine attacks on Rudd from deeply unpopular ALP figures.
This will help him enourmously with the public: go MSM!
[confessions
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:49 pm | PERMALINK
Prediction: there won’t be the hysterical OTT language such as ‘knifing’, ‘assassination’ and sundry other ridiculous terms associated with this leadership change.]
This would count as self defence! 🙂
James Massola @jamesmassola 10s
Rudd 57 gillard 45
I was close!!!!!
7:51
At exactly which minute does a prime ministership end… or begin?
William,
You haven’t met Boerwar, have you?
lefty e
Yeah, turns out Bazza Cazza was right. Just like Bob Gosford was. Denialism stocks down 5% on the All Ords.
What Bob Gosford said was:
[Prime Minister Julia Gillard has been tapped on the shoulder today and will leave office next Wednesday, March 20.]
Are even the predictions that were completely wrong retroactively justified now?
[Nelson Mandela has reportedly passed away.]
If Mandela has truly passed, I will need to disavow my popcorn.
I don’t see any articles on google- has anyone got a source?
“@chrispytweets: 57-45 in favour of Rudd is the first murmur of the vote result #ruddmentum #spill”