BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition

Labor’s aggregated poll position continues to plumb depths not seen since last year’s double whammy of the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge and Queensland state election wipeout.

A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.

Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition”

  1. I remind people it took ages last time.

    Each candidate speaks, everyone then votes (two at a time), then each candidate speaks again….

  2. s

    samantha maiden samantha maiden ‏@samanthamaiden 15s

    Gillard backers confirming from inside ALP caucus that Julia Gillard has lost the leadership but no word yet on final count.

  3. Latika Bourke Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke 1m

    Varying timings from several sources but Libs are going to meet for a special partyroom meeting post Labor leadership change (presuming one)

  4. Yeah, turns out Bazza Cazza was right. Just like Bob Gosford was. Denialism stocks down 5% on the All Ords.

    And ive got shocking news for several people: the polls werent being rigged either.

  5. Maybe there will also be some discussion about the front bench. They still have to go into HOR tomorrow. Or don’t they? Or will positions remain until the GG has made her decision?

  6. [Julia Gillard will play a very significant role in public life down the track, I feel certain. She is a remarkable person.]

    That she is. If she loses I wish her all the very best for the future and thank her for everything she has achieved over the last six years.

  7. I don’t accept we have to think Gillard should be supported because she is a woman. This is the sort of stuff that puts the public off Labor spin.

    Men can be useless and incompetent at their jobs. We accept that.

    Women can be useless and incompetent at their jobs. The left have problems accepting that.

    It’s not because she’s a woman that Gillard is incompetent and useless, it’s because Gillard the person is incompetent and useless.

  8. lefty

    … Just like Bob Gosford was …

    Didn’t he say something about PMJG being “tapped on the shoulder”. If so, no, he was wrong.

  9. 5AA going on about McTernan’s (sp?) self interest and ineptitude.

    Knitting and shit. Allegedly had already been seeking other jobs.

    Some sympathy for Reuben the dog, having to move house.

    Next first dog will know where all the bones are buried.

  10. Prediction: there won’t be the hysterical OTT language such as ‘knifing’, ‘assassination’ and sundry other ridiculous terms associated with this leadership change.

  11. Now, launch the secret weapon: the MSM endlessly replaying internecine attacks on Rudd from deeply unpopular ALP figures.

    This will help him enourmously with the public: go MSM!

  12. [confessions
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:49 pm | PERMALINK
    Prediction: there won’t be the hysterical OTT language such as ‘knifing’, ‘assassination’ and sundry other ridiculous terms associated with this leadership change.]

    This would count as self defence! 🙂

  13. lefty e

    Yeah, turns out Bazza Cazza was right. Just like Bob Gosford was. Denialism stocks down 5% on the All Ords.

    What Bob Gosford said was:
    [Prime Minister Julia Gillard has been tapped on the shoulder today and will leave office next Wednesday, March 20.]

    Are even the predictions that were completely wrong retroactively justified now?

  14. [Nelson Mandela has reportedly passed away.]

    If Mandela has truly passed, I will need to disavow my popcorn.

    I don’t see any articles on google- has anyone got a source?

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