BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition

Labor’s aggregated poll position continues to plumb depths not seen since last year’s double whammy of the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge and Queensland state election wipeout.

A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.

Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition”

  1. Sunday, June 9
    Insiders, ABC TV

    “I am now strongly of the view that Julia Gillard will not lead labor to the election.”

    Barrie Cassidy.

    Reputation intact.

  2. “@thomasjohn86: Women’s Weekly promised me a picture of the Prime Minister knitting. I want Kevin doing a double stitch and I want it now.”

  3. Well, Kevin is being put in to “save the furniture”.

    Good luck to him, and I actually hope he wins – but he’ll have to do it without my vote. I cannot in all conscience support a party – either party for that matter – that shows such duplicity.

  4. Boewar, coming from you that’s quite a compliment for the Greens.

    Your political intuition is very average and your continued stooping to ad hom reveals what a nasty piece of work you are.

  5. Congratulations to Julia Gillard for her pioneering role as Australia’s first female PM. She has been attacked incessantly by the media and by the public. It seems clear that the country was not ready for a female PM.

    May the next female PM be treated better.

  6. “@chrispytweets: Reports are that Wayne Swan and Stephen Conroy have both just quit cabinet as a result of tonight’s vote #ruddmentum #spill”

  7. These people are idiots….Leigh sales didnt know who the returning officer was…the assembled press kept asking questions the RO couldnt answer because he was there talking to them….simkin toolhead smirking heads off

  8. Player One@1974

    Yep, this is the first time that a Federal Party has actually taken up the idea of “saving the furniture”.

    It’ll be interesting to see how they go. I have pretty low expectations.

  9. Well, the little twerp get s the top job for a brief time. I’m starting to come around to the idea that the populace needs a dose of the Fibs misrule to lance the boil that our body politic has become.

    So, does Julia get to do a valedictory speech tomorrow?

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