A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.
Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.
[If you don’t understand the political courage that took, you are even stupider than you pretend to be.
]
It didn’t take courage at all it was a gambit – without which her victory tonight would have been meaningless.
Seems obvious is Rudd, shame but such is life. Time for them to unite and focus on Abbott
Surely we get a no confidence motion tomorrow, the numbers need to be tested IMO
August 3 poll
[margo kingston @margokingston1 37s
If JG loses I hope she stands as an independent. We need class acts to replace @TonyWindsorMP and @Oakeymp.]
Interesting thought, but unlikely given what we’ve seen of Gillard. She is Labor through and through.
How is Mark Latham taking this after screaming rudd was too cowardly to challenge ad nauseum.
Where are our various warriors?
Where is Bemused…and our endlessly optomistic GG who saw nothing but sunshine and roses forall of the last 3 years.?..and was horrivbly wrong
Where is Phsephos ?
why the breathless hush !
I will post up a cheery song for us all.. as we await the axe to fall
Poroti
Pavlov’s great stuff……
yes to Julia, and the rest…..
terrific piano !
samantha maiden @samanthamaiden 1m
Labor MP reports “still voting” re numbers inside ALP caucus.
Julia Gillard will play a very significant role in public life down the track, I feel certain. She is a remarkable person.
[ It didn’t take courage at all it was a gambit – without which her victory tonight would have been meaningless. ]
I think you are agreeing with me. You just don’t seem to understand that you are.
Time for an irony free round of solidarity forever!
You crawled away from me.
Slipped away from me.
I tried to keep a hold,
But there was nothing I could say.
You slid and crept away
And there was nothing I could say.
So what you’re trying to say
Is you don’t wanna play.
But what you want and what you need
Doesn’t mean fuck to me.
Because I can see your back is turning.
If I could I’d stick the knife in.
This is love.
This is my love for you.
Get up.
Now.
Say you won’t go.
I resigned 3 months ago.
When I ran the last Gillard vs Rudd PB sweep there were about 120 entries. This time 11 !! Brings to mind Robbie Burns “To a Mouse” 🙂
[ Wee, sleekit, cow’rin, tim’rous beastie,]
rummel:
Now the politically disengaged know how we feel when regular TV cuts off press conferences and QT.
Still going? That’s interesting. Must have been long speeches.
the longer this goes on, the closer we get to a third candidate in the mix
You will be busy in the morning BK
OC really?? Now that surprises me.
In your branch surely that was a tough decision??
+36
Mick77
You are in my sights buddy.
+37
Sean Tisme@1844
what footy ?
isnt essendon v weagles tomorrow nite ?
“Still voting” – have they gone to a 2nd ballot -a tie or a 3rd candidate?
ST
The Origin kick-off has been put back to 8:10 pm to accommodate this. All the players are riveted.
+38
Feeney for Lalor.
A Tony Award for this farce.
Poroti
We had a weekend to ruminate last time
A song! That’s the ticket…
The people’s flag is palest pink
Best drop it now before we stink
I rather like the Tory Blue
And Abbott’s policies – we’ll have them too
Now ditch we all that old red flower
Anything to cling to power
The working class can kiss my arse
It’s Rudd or Gillard or Rudd I worship, first and last.
[I think you are agreeing with me. You just don’t seem to understand that you are.]
If when you say courage you mean desperate we probably do agree. Rudd and Gillard are so alike it is hilarious watching the two cults collide.
Till my last breath I will hold the view we should have switched to Smith in March 12
I like primes.
Courier Mail site reporting that Rudd’s back.
Interesting its taking so long.
So whatever the result, the media have their easy column inches and something to waffle about. They are really disgusting trash.
“@bairdjulia: My six year old just told me she wants to be PM. Despite sniping, mistakes, misogyny, madness, our first female PM showed it was possible.”
+39
You’d imagine it’s taking a bit longer since they’ll be holding an election for the deputy leadership too.
All without Bruce Hawker too
If Rudd wins, Australian women have had a great loss.
Men will say this is nonsense, but they don’t understand.
Will Gillard supporters sabotage Rudd’s election prospects?
+40
39 is not prime. 41 is next
“@AydenCutajar: Lol, channel 9 apologising for not showing State of Origin at the moment. Promises to show kickoff. #spill”
Yes, well, anyone who listened to Latham on this was always barking up the wrong crazytree.
Bring the RUDDSTORM.
Cheer up punters, im still waiting for the fat lady to sing, but the song will be GAME ON.
Ps And shout out to Alias too. Yeah!
+41
Barry Cassidy made a good observation that the loser would be allowed to address the caucus because they are expected to retire, so caucus will take longer to finish.
[ Interesting its taking so long. ]
I suspect they realize they cannot come out with a close result. That would be death.
So perhaps they have agreed to keep going until one candidate has a sufficiently large majority to be credible.
+42
[If Rudd wins, Australian women have had a great loss.
Men will say this is nonsense, but they don’t understand.
]
I agree – sad more women didn’t support her.
This is fair:
“Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
Let it not be forgotten those that talked mountains upon mountains of bullshit about this. Reflection time for the guilty”
“@moonytweets: I love that even all my international tweeters are in #spill mode. WE’RE TRENDING GLOBALLY GUYS”
Nemspy
I don’t think that’s what all and sundry said. Wasn’t this started a week or so ago by Barrie Cassidy? Is he News Ltd? Maybe you mean you mean “pedaled by one or two people” :P.