BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition

Labor’s aggregated poll position continues to plumb depths not seen since last year’s double whammy of the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge and Queensland state election wipeout.

A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.

Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition”

  1. [If you don’t understand the political courage that took, you are even stupider than you pretend to be.

    It didn’t take courage at all it was a gambit – without which her victory tonight would have been meaningless.

  2. Seems obvious is Rudd, shame but such is life. Time for them to unite and focus on Abbott

    Surely we get a no confidence motion tomorrow, the numbers need to be tested IMO

    August 3 poll

  3. [margo kingston ‏@margokingston1 37s
    If JG loses I hope she stands as an independent. We need class acts to replace @TonyWindsorMP and @Oakeymp.]

    Interesting thought, but unlikely given what we’ve seen of Gillard. She is Labor through and through.

  4. Where are our various warriors?
    Where is Bemused…and our endlessly optomistic GG who saw nothing but sunshine and roses forall of the last 3 years.?..and was horrivbly wrong
    Where is Phsephos ?
    why the breathless hush !

    I will post up a cheery song for us all.. as we await the axe to fall

  5. [ It didn’t take courage at all it was a gambit – without which her victory tonight would have been meaningless. ]

    I think you are agreeing with me. You just don’t seem to understand that you are.

  6. You crawled away from me.
    Slipped away from me.
    I tried to keep a hold,
    But there was nothing I could say.
    You slid and crept away
    And there was nothing I could say.
    So what you’re trying to say
    Is you don’t wanna play.
    But what you want and what you need
    Doesn’t mean fuck to me.
    Because I can see your back is turning.
    If I could I’d stick the knife in.
    This is love.
    This is my love for you.
    Get up.
    Say you won’t go.

  7. When I ran the last Gillard vs Rudd PB sweep there were about 120 entries. This time 11 !! Brings to mind Robbie Burns “To a Mouse” 🙂

    [ Wee, sleekit, cow’rin, tim’rous beastie,]

  8. A song! That’s the ticket…

    The people’s flag is palest pink
    Best drop it now before we stink
    I rather like the Tory Blue
    And Abbott’s policies – we’ll have them too

    Now ditch we all that old red flower
    Anything to cling to power
    The working class can kiss my arse
    It’s Rudd or Gillard or Rudd I worship, first and last.

  9. [I think you are agreeing with me. You just don’t seem to understand that you are.]

    If when you say courage you mean desperate we probably do agree. Rudd and Gillard are so alike it is hilarious watching the two cults collide.

    Till my last breath I will hold the view we should have switched to Smith in March 12

  10. Interesting its taking so long.

    So whatever the result, the media have their easy column inches and something to waffle about. They are really disgusting trash.

  11. “@bairdjulia: My six year old just told me she wants to be PM. Despite sniping, mistakes, misogyny, madness, our first female PM showed it was possible.”

  12. Yes, well, anyone who listened to Latham on this was always barking up the wrong crazytree.

    Bring the RUDDSTORM.

    Cheer up punters, im still waiting for the fat lady to sing, but the song will be GAME ON.

    Ps And shout out to Alias too. Yeah!

  13. Barry Cassidy made a good observation that the loser would be allowed to address the caucus because they are expected to retire, so caucus will take longer to finish.

  14. [ Interesting its taking so long. ]

    I suspect they realize they cannot come out with a close result. That would be death.

    So perhaps they have agreed to keep going until one candidate has a sufficiently large majority to be credible.

  15. [If Rudd wins, Australian women have had a great loss.
    Men will say this is nonsense, but they don’t understand.

    I agree – sad more women didn’t support her.

  16. This is fair:

    “Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
    Let it not be forgotten those that talked mountains upon mountains of bullshit about this. Reflection time for the guilty”

  17. Nemspy

    So, does anyone care to comment on the line that has been pedaled here by all and sundry that the leadership tensions were all a big News Ltd beatup?

    I don’t think that’s what all and sundry said. Wasn’t this started a week or so ago by Barrie Cassidy? Is he News Ltd? Maybe you mean you mean “pedaled by one or two people” :P.

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