BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition

Labor’s aggregated poll position continues to plumb depths not seen since last year’s double whammy of the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge and Queensland state election wipeout.

A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.

Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition”

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  1. BK
    glad you are back hope you continue to post your early m0rning comments as you leaving would mean the various dribbling people on here wins some more to turn this blog into what they want

  9. Who the hell does Bill Shorten think he is? King maker.

    He comes off as a bit of a self-important egotistical moron if you ask me.

    There is some real talent on the backbench yet Labor lets these losers decide.

  10. [This makes you a bit of a dickhead, in my humble opinion.]

    She’s lived by the sword. Many careers have been broken and ruined by her approach to politics. Several worthy causes have been put back for years.

    I’ll accept your views, with respect, but I can’t describe how much I anticipate this moment.

  11. lefty e

    [And a big SHOUT OUT to Bemused, Showson, JV and all the rest who stuck it out here with me through all the tough times.

    Salutes, comrades!]

    And to you comrade. Cheers. This, and Origin football.

    As long as it means the party direction gets back to where it should be when wrested back from the production line of philosophy-free power seekers.

  17. So I’ve seen ALP people here accusing Abbott of making politics “US-Style”. Odd then, given that the ALP seems intent in bringing “primaries” to Australian politics where people from the same party go at each others throats for the right to run. 🙂

  21. Time to stop any gloating, any “told you so” type stuff, any retribution.

    Time to get on with the business of beating Abbott.

    Now.

  23. Bilbo

    [Yes, the chances of seeing her cry real tears for only the second time is looking up.

    I’ve got some popcorn ready

    This makes you a bit of a dickhead, in my humble opinion.]

    Shame on you, Bilbo.

    I’ve been snipped for using that same term of ‘endearment’ here.
    I suspect all political hacks/psephologists/other sad gits have all got microwave popcorn on standby.

    Julia, as she is all too keen to point out, is a knitting needle toting, non-blue tie wearing, card carrying ‘everywomen’ so tears ought to be on the agenda with a loss.

    Kevvie will cry harder if he loses… He might even have a bucket of worms at Hawthorne in his back yard behind glass (in case of leadership ballot emergency, a) break glass, b) eat occupants).

  27. “@LanaDelNeigh_: LOL leigh sales saying that this is “too important to rely on rumou”. What have you all been doing the past 3 years then?!?! #spill”

  30. [Sean and Mr Squiggle you are disgusting re your comment on tears]

    Hang on, what do you think it is I said?

    I was just celebrating Gillard knifed herself demanding whoever loses the vote loses their seat.

  32. zoid:

    Richo is wrong. As I’ve been saying for ages now, the best chance the govt has of providing a contest in the election is for the election to be held later rather than sooner.

  33. The best comedy could still be ahead as Krudd tries to get confidence on the floor of the House, assuming he wins tonight. As we know only Gillard is a super negotiator haha. Maybe Swan will cross the floor .. we know he’d like to.

  39. [ I was just celebrating Gillard knifed herself demanding whoever loses the vote loses their seat. ]

    Gillard said that to ensure this was the end of leadershite.

    If you don’t understand the political courage that took, you are even stupider than you pretend to be.

  40. ST
    “He comes off as a bit of a self-important egotistical moron if you ask me.”

    On the basis of “it takes one to know one” you’re probably right for once in your life.

  48. ALP = Political amateurs.

    I thought trying to force Mark Latham on the electorate was democratic treason enough but tonight is a complete farce. Tweedle dumb and tweedle dumber.

    How many of your are resigning the ALP after tonight.. come on, hands up!

  49. So, does anyone care to comment on the line that has been pedaled here by all and sundry that the leadership tensions were all a big News Ltd beatup?

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