BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition

Labor’s aggregated poll position continues to plumb depths not seen since last year’s double whammy of the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge and Queensland state election wipeout.

A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.

Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition”

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  2. Labor are causing hell among the younger voters who are missing the TV show the block because of this spil. I have been happily pointing out that its Labors fault.

  15. [and all the rest who stuck it out here with me through all the tough times.]

    Tough times?! You lot caved in at the first sight of a struggle.

    😮

    I’d hate to be in the trenches with you all.

  17. guytaur@1727


    “@Ausflatfish: Kevin Rudd backers are talking of more parliamentary sitting weeks before election. #auspol #spill”

    Same Sex Marriage to turn polls around?

    I couldn’t think of a better thing to do.
    Rudd really needs to turn the blowtorch on RAbbott.

  19. zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:12 pm | PERMALINK
    David Speers ‏@David_Speers 2m

    Gillard camp confirm she has lost the numbers. Vote still underway

    ——–

    no media is allowed in the room , pro coalition media unhinging already

  23. [Gillards going to resign from parliament?

    Woohoo!]

    Yes, the chances of seeing her cry real tears for only the second time is looking up.

    I’ve got some popcorn ready

  25. Would you believe that just as the spill was about to break I got called out to a road traffic accident in the township. I have just got back.
    So it’s a cage match. Did Rudd accept the win or quit condition?

  28. I hear Rudd is going to call an August election. The idea being, of course, to go before people have a chance to remember he was just as bad as Gillard.

    It’ll be interesting to see how it goes. ALP with some sort of chance now with a honeymoon vote. It won’t be right if they get back — Labor doesn’t deserve it — but Abbott isn’t too appealing, either.

  31. zoidlord
    [MPs walking with Ms Gillard include Swan, Ellis, Ludwig, Leigh, Danby, Lundy, O’Connor]
    I think Kev already knows those suspects, who are safe from any punishment whatsoever, he says…

  32. [I expect a very gracious speech from Rudd. And the same from Gillard. It’s got to be the way to start this.]
    Plenty of crying .. she owes him a lot of tears; and they both owe the Aussie public a bucketful.

  34. “@lucethoughts: If Sky is right, Women’s Weekly is going to have to pulp a *lot* of magazines…”

    😆

    Something good.

  36. Wayyyyy too early to wonder what Rudd will do in terms of policy. It’s not certain he’ll survive a NCM at this point.

  37. Now claims are coming out:

    samantha maiden ‏@samanthamaiden 15s

    Speers: Gillard camp claiming Shorten did deal with Rudd to become Treasurer. Bit too obvious surely ? Bowen the go ?

  41. journos all booking their holidays now, been writing their stories for three years and nothing left to do except release them

  43. Latika Bourke Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke 7s

    PM Gillard’s numbers man tells me she’s gone. #Ruddmentum
    Expand
    James Massola James Massola ‏@jamesmassola 42s

    Labor MP: Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd have both addressed the caucus. Ballot gets under way very soon.

  44. “Rudd really needs to turn the blowtorch on RAbbott.”

    That is the funniest thing I’ve heard all day!!

    Rudd has all the guts of a fish fillet.

  45. [guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:11 pm | Permalink
    Win or lose Labor supporters can be proud of PMJG. Managing the Hung Parliament has been amazing and had amazing reforms passed.

    Also a great role model for woman as a gutsy principled First Female PM.]

    Totally agree with that. History will be a lot kinder to her than the MSM and some here have been.

  48. Mr Squiggle

    “Yes, the chances of seeing her cry real tears for only the second time is looking up.”

    Congrats on confirming yourself in this person’s eyes as a complete wanker.

  49. I don’t believe she’ll cry. She’s strong. She did well in hard conditions but the people just didn’t warm to her. And we still don’t know for sure what’s happening yet.

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