BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition

Labor’s aggregated poll position continues to plumb depths not seen since last year’s double whammy of the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge and Queensland state election wipeout.

A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.

Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition”

  1. FORMER DEPOSED PMS
    _______________
    Gorton went and was replaced by McMahon….but never again made any attempts on McMahon’s leadership
    When Hawke was dumped and Keating won the ballor ,Hawke left parliement soon after.

    What makes this matter unusual is that Rudd has stayed in the arena
    I think If Gillard had good polling figues this would never have arisen
    So we on new ground

    Only Menzies…deposed in 1941 amidst a torrent of abuse from his own.,..returned in 1949 when the tide ran against Chifley….and then had a record term in office

  2. “A wrong must be righted” is not the way to choose a leader who will be supported by the whole caucus, or even by all the Labor supporters.

  3. Emma Griffiths ‏@EJGriffiths 55s

    Shorten is seen as the “turnkey” in the leadership standoff and his defection gives Rudd a significant boost.

  4. Those Drum vox pops all seemed to be white blokes…not a woman in sight..I don’t think they were very representative of Parramatta.

  5. Mr Squiggle… by the end of the day No.

    Leader at the election.. Yes

    Gillard and Rudd could rip the party apart and we could end up with opposition leader Bob Hawke

  6. “@HarryJ_MP: Yes @abcnews this is Harry Potter-esque. I think Gillard is McGonagall, Rudd is Snape, Abbott is Voldemort. I am Dumbledore. #spill”

  7. [“A wrong must be righted” is not the way to choose a leader who will be supported by the whole caucus, or even by all the Labor supporters.]

    The Member for Griffith’s support has been solely driven by retribution.

    I agree, it’s very self-indulgent and highly divisive.

  8. Two Bobs Worth

    Yes, but how did so few on here realise it?

    How could anyone have expected the miserable weak leaderless selfish careerist plotters to have done any better? That Faulkner and Tanner stepped out immediately l told the story. They knew what the party was in for. No-one listened to us then, maybe they’ll listen now.

    I just hope, if Rudd gets up it means the hollow wing is destroyed. Should he win, the new line-up will be fascinating!

  9. Boer War

    Coalition members don’t have to vote at gunpoint. Turnbull crossed the floor and is a shadow cabinet minister…

    You’d never get that with the ALP.

    There is no leadership challenge, ruction or rumour because the Coalition has managed.. what is that thing called…. um… oh, yeah. Discipline.

    The ALP are like cats on speed currently.

    Alea Jacta Est!

    [I note that 7 of the Coalition crossed the floor on the local government referendum…

    A harbinger of the true state of internal cohesian of the Liberals, not to speak of Liberals v Nationals.

    Enjoy your hubris while you may.]

  10. “@Ausflatfish: Kevin Rudd backers are talking of more parliamentary sitting weeks before election. #auspol #spill”

    Same Sex Marriage to turn polls around?

  11. Well well, Shorten changes camp. Good on him for accepting the inevtiable at least – at being at odds with Howes demonstrates Shorten as an MP can still appreciate the ALP has the external goal of winning elections.

    And a big SHOUT OUT to Bemused, Showson, JV and all the rest who stuck it out here with me through all the tough times.

    Salutes, comrades!

  12. [Meguire Bob
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:08 pm | Permalink

    Having conroy and swan on her side , Gillard should be confident]

    Gillard camp admitting its over and MB is still hammering on the same bizarre line.

  13. [poroti
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:09 pm | Permalink

    Last call for the PB sweepstakes. Votes Rudd ? Gillard ?]

    Rudd with 64 votes is my call.

  14. Good point Guytaur. That would really turn the heat up on Abbott – and bring his religious beliefs into sharp focus. A very good strategy.

  15. [Mr Squiggle… by the end of the day No.

    Leader at the election.. Yes

    Gillard and Rudd could rip the party apart and we could end up with opposition leader Bob Hawke]

    ST – interesting thoughts there.

    I also like the idea of the eventual winner ditching the Sept 14 election date and delaying as long as possible

  16. The best part of Shorten’s speech was the effort to make his voice quiver. Didn’t quite get it. More media training necessary

  17. Onya Julia. Whatever the outcome this voter is and forever will be proud of supporting your tenure.

    As for you pesky Ruddsters, I hope you are right. I’ll be in the booth voting Labor right along with you.

  18. Jeez the Coalition ad campaign is going to be a riot.

    Expect to hear “spoken by Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd, Simon Crean, Wayne Swan etc etc etc for the Liberal Party, Canberra” a lot in the next several weeks.

  19. I’m with Guytaur. Hope JG wins, but if it’s Rudd, as seems certain, then I’ll get behind him as leader.
    It’s all about loyalty, you see?

  20. Win or lose Labor supporters can be proud of PMJG. Managing the Hung Parliament has been amazing and had amazing reforms passed.

    Also a great role model for woman as a gutsy principled First Female PM.

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