A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.
Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated others vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.
4
Naomi Woodley @naomiwoodley 43s
The caucus returning officer Chris Hayes and his deputy Dick Adams walk past clutching the ballot box.
safe hands in the Senate
Just sayin
Gillard $11.00 to be leader by tomorrow
What’s the bet if Rudd wins… the next Newspoll will have Gillard leading preferred PM.
zoidy,
You’ll have to wait to 7:20 at the earliest.
Maybe chris bowen for telecommunications, shorten treasurer
3
Richo cock a hoop. Says it all.
The amazing thing is this was entirely predictable (and predicted) from June 2010. It was set in stone.
Shorten and the other cabal members cannot be allowed to get away with their selfish abandonment of principle for power for its own sake, and more importantly just about giving Abbott bi-partisanship on issues they should never have given him. Hopeless jokes the outgoing cabal.
Some swords will need to be fallen upon. And I hope Rudd does a few late ‘captain’s picks’ including Batman.
Bob Carr: Way too much of a reminder of NSW Labor
Thanks BH I will.
Meguire Bob
[i will be back later or tomorrow]
You sound like Captain Oates.
Do the Women for Gillard get their Subs back?
Leader by end of day
Rudd $1.02
Gillard $11
Any other $51
2
[Just got off the phone from my mate Paul, he reckons Bob Carr will come up through the middle. Disagree, but it’s on the record now]
The irony of Elder passing on the postulating of a bloke who is a friend of a felon/former media baron in Conrad Black
Good day for Labor today Kevin has a real chance and not just saving the furniture. JG should resign if she loses as should KR if he loses.
So the pundits will have to admit the MSM was not just making this up specifically PVO, Richo or Simon Benson.
Big slabs of Humble Pie all around this joint.
Go the ALP.
Rudd entering alone.
Well, well, how are we Gillard cultists? Looking happy are we??
How about the Ruddists? Still think the ALP will win?
Hang your heads in shame. You have been negligent with our nation, treated its citizens as mugs and walked around parliament house gazing at navels.
Tony Abbott is not the best leader the coalition have put forward but the coalition is more unified than the ALP has been for some time.
Scrub up for the slaughter folks.
🙂
Please don’t leave this site Bob Meguire.
Your comic interludes are wonderful circuit breakers.
jv
Life is funny sometimes isn’t it!
We were on the money all along :smile:.
The vacuous commentary team on ABC24 are just woeful.
I get that the ‘proper’ journalists are all tied up, but really, a Hawker Briton hack, a Menzies House hack and Annabel Crabbe!
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aundiced view
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 6:57 pm | PERMALINK
Meguire Bob
i will be back later or tomorrow
You sound like Captain Oates.
———
no i just have to go to do something , should have done 30 mins ago
Not long now.
So – just have to wait now.
By the way was there ever a petition being circulated, or was that also a lie?
Stick around MB.
bugger it i will stay
shellbell:
I believe it was a joke. 🙂
jaundiced view
[Meguire Bob
i will be back later or tomorrow
You sound like Captain Oates.
]
Bob says
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1ypn0y32Ac
Bemused is notable by his absence.
Kaboom!
Bluepill. This is how democracy works – conflict and resolution.
7pm
GAME ON TIME!
🙂
James Massola @jamesmassola 21s
MPs walking with Ms Gillard include Swan, Ellis, Ludwig, Leigh, Danby, Lundy, O’Connor
CC
[Do the Women for Gillard get their Subs back?]
No, their hubbies get free subs for “Men for Kev”.
Pity I can’t find all my PB posts from 1,2 years ago when I predicted that she’d never make it to the next election and if she did she’d be unelectable. But I DIDN’T SAY TO GO BACK TO KRUDD!!! Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr
After this Borgen 🙂
briefly @ 1606, agree. One only has to look at the arguments here to see the conflict this situation generates and it’s far too simplistic, easy and ungenerous to assume that the same conflict doesn’t occur within individuals.
Well, speaking entirely for myself, I could not have been happier with the Gillard government. I am very sorry to see politics being driven by polls but I do understand that unless the pursuit of power (as opposed to the use of power) drives you one is more likely to be ineffectually blogging than being PM.
Gillard will be sorely missed by me at least.
I hope someone leaks the numbers…
FWIW the Drum vox pops from western Sydney all said the same thing: bring on the election so we can vote this mob out.
Naomi Woodley @naomiwoodley 29s
Rudd didn’t walk past our media pen here, but is now in the caucus room.
zoidlord
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:01 pm | PERMALINK
James Massola @jamesmassola 21s
MPs walking with Ms Gillard include Swan, Ellis, Ludwig, Leigh, Danby, Lundy, O’Connor
————-
Its over for rudd
Swan is a influence player
bluepill
I note that 7 of the Coalition crossed the floor on the local government referendum…
A harbinger of the true state of internal cohesian of the Liberals, not to speak of Liberals v Nationals.
Enjoy your hubris while you may.
It’s those who might lose their seats against the rest.
It’s those who might lose their seats against the rest.
$50-1 on anyone but Rudd or Gillard?
If I had the means, I’d put $50 on Crean at those odds.
I can see a third choice/alternative scenario emerging
Leigh is my rep 😎
Mr Squiggle
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:02 pm | PERMALINK
$50-1 on anyone but Rudd or Gillard?
——-
Mark Riley’s man Peter Garrett