BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition

Labor’s aggregated poll position continues to plumb depths not seen since last year’s double whammy of the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge and Queensland state election wipeout.

A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.

Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition”

  1. Naomi Woodley ‏@naomiwoodley 43s

    The caucus returning officer Chris Hayes and his deputy Dick Adams walk past clutching the ballot box.

  2. The amazing thing is this was entirely predictable (and predicted) from June 2010. It was set in stone.

    Shorten and the other cabal members cannot be allowed to get away with their selfish abandonment of principle for power for its own sake, and more importantly just about giving Abbott bi-partisanship on issues they should never have given him. Hopeless jokes the outgoing cabal.

    Some swords will need to be fallen upon. And I hope Rudd does a few late ‘captain’s picks’ including Batman.

  3. [Just got off the phone from my mate Paul, he reckons Bob Carr will come up through the middle. Disagree, but it’s on the record now]

    The irony of Elder passing on the postulating of a bloke who is a friend of a felon/former media baron in Conrad Black

  4. Good day for Labor today Kevin has a real chance and not just saving the furniture. JG should resign if she loses as should KR if he loses.
    So the pundits will have to admit the MSM was not just making this up specifically PVO, Richo or Simon Benson.
    Big slabs of Humble Pie all around this joint.
    Go the ALP.

  5. Well, well, how are we Gillard cultists? Looking happy are we??

    How about the Ruddists? Still think the ALP will win?

    Hang your heads in shame. You have been negligent with our nation, treated its citizens as mugs and walked around parliament house gazing at navels.

    Tony Abbott is not the best leader the coalition have put forward but the coalition is more unified than the ALP has been for some time.

    Scrub up for the slaughter folks.

    πŸ™‚

  6. The vacuous commentary team on ABC24 are just woeful.

    I get that the ‘proper’ journalists are all tied up, but really, a Hawker Briton hack, a Menzies House hack and Annabel Crabbe!

  7. aundiced view
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 6:57 pm | PERMALINK
    Meguire Bob

    i will be back later or tomorrow

    You sound like Captain Oates.

    ———

    no i just have to go to do something , should have done 30 mins ago

  8. CC
    [Do the Women for Gillard get their Subs back?]
    No, their hubbies get free subs for “Men for Kev”.

    Pity I can’t find all my PB posts from 1,2 years ago when I predicted that she’d never make it to the next election and if she did she’d be unelectable. But I DIDN’T SAY TO GO BACK TO KRUDD!!! Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr

  9. briefly @ 1606, agree. One only has to look at the arguments here to see the conflict this situation generates and it’s far too simplistic, easy and ungenerous to assume that the same conflict doesn’t occur within individuals.

  10. Well, speaking entirely for myself, I could not have been happier with the Gillard government. I am very sorry to see politics being driven by polls but I do understand that unless the pursuit of power (as opposed to the use of power) drives you one is more likely to be ineffectually blogging than being PM.
    Gillard will be sorely missed by me at least.

  11. zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:01 pm | PERMALINK
    James Massola ‏@jamesmassola 21s

    MPs walking with Ms Gillard include Swan, Ellis, Ludwig, Leigh, Danby, Lundy, O’Connor

    ————-

    Its over for rudd

    Swan is a influence player

  12. bluepill

    I note that 7 of the Coalition crossed the floor on the local government referendum…

    A harbinger of the true state of internal cohesian of the Liberals, not to speak of Liberals v Nationals.

    Enjoy your hubris while you may.

  13. $50-1 on anyone but Rudd or Gillard?

    If I had the means, I’d put $50 on Crean at those odds.

    I can see a third choice/alternative scenario emerging

  14. Mr Squiggle
    Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 7:02 pm | PERMALINK
    $50-1 on anyone but Rudd or Gillard?

    ——-

    Mark Riley’s man Peter Garrett

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