A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.
Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.
Einstein was right. Time is relative.
This is excruciating, this waiting.
Evening all.
So we have a spill. Presumably the PM will nominate. Does she have a challenger?
If Albanese is supporting Gillard, I will send his next political flyer saying that a vote for the Greens is a vote for the LNP right back to him, with a very nasty comment about hypocrites.
[How did the chemo go for your OH?]
Long day Shellbell… she’d pretty tired but fighting hard… very proud of her. Last week next week then we wait and see.
Gillard 55
Rudd 47
1428
briefly
[First, {Rudd} is not likely to run unless he’s sure to win.]
Or he has been told by the party power brokers that this time around really is his last chance, so he better take it.
briefly
Posted Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 6:21 pm | PERMALINK
1431
briefly
There is going to be a small, very select poll in about an hour from now, m-bob. The entire country is hoping this will soon all be over.
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I agree with you
What also should happen no matter the result labor supporters should set their sites on the on the coalition supporters and pro coalition media hacks
Hoping Julia wins but no matter what happens at least it’s over tonight
Correction…
Gillard win – next Newspoll 39/61
Rudd win – next Newspoll 48/52
1423
crikey whitey
Thanks for the posting, cw. Of course, it is also possible that one or more despairing ex-ministers might also vote against Rudd in the House.
Psephos 1449
Absolutely true
Gecko:
Fingers crossed for her. 🙂
It will never be over so long as Gillard remains so so far behind.
Psephos
Numbers?
zoidlord
[
39 minutes!~]
😉
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k55NuWQCh78
Psephos
[ Once he’s back in power, all he will want from the ALP is obedience, just as last time.]
No sour grapes from you Psephos you want the best for the ALP of course.
Use your bib to wipe your chin, TP
You’re dribbling.
Nobody cares what a toysoldier has to say.
I offer 1,000,000 to 1 to anyone against Sky asking Kroger if he has settled his defo suit by Ramjan
Thanks Fess :kiss:
lol shellbell
Shorten doorstop @ 6.30
Now now Kinkajou – what’s all that about?
Ruddstoration please. Then on to victory.
Notice how Kenny sort of sits to attention when asked a question – something he learned in gravitas school
32
It’s interesting to watch the theatre in Parliament House on the idiot box: contrary to what I’m hearing from my channels, the sense coming through is not overwhelmingly one that Rudd is going to win.
It’s quite peculiar and rather Shakespearean. And so we go to Act V Scene III: Another part of the battlefield. Enter Shorten.
31
Gecko
Just saw your comment as always as you know, my thoughts and best vibes are with both of you, she would be tired so give her all your love as you always do, which is what she would want
Once more into the breach, dear friends…
29
30
The Liberals have already put out a youtube featuring all the comments from last year’s challenge.
If Shorten flips then it is all over.
ML
29? You Liberals.
30
And Shorten…is he gonna put his hand up?
My guess is that Shorten will stick with Gillard.
29
Psephos
A Rudd win will mean the initial part of reform – removing a bunch of blow-in careerists from control. That will do me to start with.
51/51
Then joint PMship so we get rid of them both in one hit.
Psephos@1449: Oh well, I can’t believe people think 9/11 was a US-Israeli conspiracy. But I keep running into them.
jv
Rudd is a blow-in careerist.
If the Member for Griffith does challenge, and keeps good his word to retire if he loses, hopefully this should be the end of the whiteanting and destabilising.
Hopefully.
Gecko
All the best to both you and your wife at a difficult time.
confessions, in calling the spill, JG also said the loser should leave the Parliament. KR has not publicly said the same thing. Effectively, she has said to the caucus that if they want an end to the division, they should elect (the implacable) Rudd. As far as I know, the Cabinet is sticking with JG but she cannot survive.
The Government is gone for all money if she were to lead them at the election so Rudd will prevail tonight. Whether he can also defeat Abbott is another thing entirely.
Be a tremendous boost to labor if swan and conroy both go
Boerwar
Guess Mike Kelly is sticking with Rudd?
Mari – On to it and thanks… stay safe. :kiss:
M77
Dribs and drabs?
m
Yep. And if Rudd gets in in Hendry can have Eden Monaro for all I give a stuff.