BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition

Labor’s aggregated poll position continues to plumb depths not seen since last year’s double whammy of the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge and Queensland state election wipeout.

A fourth successive move against Labor on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings the Coalition’s two-party lead near to its previous peaks after the carbon tax slide of early 2011 and Kevin Rudd leadership challenge of February 2012. The latest update includes new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, while the state results have been updated with the Newspoll quarterly aggregates. This gave Labor a particularly bad result in Western Australia, reducing them to one seat on the seat projection for the first time since BludgerTrack commenced last November. The projection also has Labor dropping two seats in New South Wales and one in Victoria compared with last week’s result, while gaining one in Queensland.

Very technical note: Sharp-eyed observers will note that the two-party preferred change recorded in the sidebar table for this week is slightly lower than the primary votes suggest it should be. This is due to a methodological tweak that has brought my national and state projections into line, correcting slight anomalies caused by differences between the two data sets. The biggest of these was an inflated “others” vote in the state estimates, the removal of which has added about 0.2% to the final national calculation of Labor’s two-party preferred vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.8-43.2 to Coalition”

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  9. jaundiced view@1489

    “A Rudd win will mean the initial part of reform – removing a bunch of blow-in careerists from control. That will do me to start with.”

    So the disappearance of “blow-in careerists” like Peter Garrett, Tony Burke and Stephen Conroy will be compensated for in your view by the return of Joel Fitzgibbon to the Ministry and the elevation of other such individuals.

  13. briefly:

    It would be very disappointing if Gillard is replaced, after all her hard work and the abuse she has suffered.

    A leadership change guarantees defeat IMO – it just continues the circus of apparent absurdity.

  14. Gecko. May I offer my condolences on your loss.

    And my personal award for courage to you and your OH.

    A bit of unicorn horn powder for you both. (Obtained prior to banning)

  16. Sabra Lane ‏@SabraLane 3m

    Standby: Bill Shorten presser any minute now, coverage will be on “PM”. Special coverage continues thru evening.

  28. Annabel Crabb ‏@annabelcrabb 4m

    Brendan O’Connor says he is confident PM has at least 52 votes. #but10percentofthosecouldbedodgy

  45. Shorten for Rudd:

    Annabel Crabb ‏@annabelcrabb now

    Shorten : I have now come to the conclusion that the best chance of defending this Government’s legacy is for Kevin Rudd to lead.

  50. [1513
    confessions

    briefly:

    It would be very disappointing if Gillard is replaced, after all her hard work and the abuse she has suffered.

    A leadership change guarantees defeat IMO – it just continues the circus of apparent absurdity.]

    There is no joy in any of this for anyone other than the LNP, I’m sure.

    But it all has to come to an end. I’m glad to think it may soon be over. JG cannot possibly win and KR does not deserve to.

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