BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition

Nothing doing in this week’s pre-budget poll aggregate, which maintains a holding pattern established in early February.

It’s been a quiet week for polling, with the major pollsters holding their fire ahead of the budget and leaving the field vacant for the regularly weekly Essential Research and Morgan. With each adhering closely to the trend, there are only minor shifts in this week’s aggregated poll result on voting intention (as displayed on the sidebar). The seat projection has nudged two seats in Labor’s favour, one of which it owes to a 3.1% two-party preferred adjustment that was made to the Tasmanian result last week. That left Labor just shy of a second Tasmanian seat, which a 0.3% shift this week on the national result has helped push them over. The other Labor gain comes off the New South Wales total.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,682 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition”

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  1. This is what we say we think
    Paid parental leave is an important and necessary social and economic reform.
    Without strong families, Australia will not have a strong future.
    The Coalition’s Paid Parental Leave scheme will enhance child and maternal wellbeing by providing working mothers with real time and real money during the important period following childbirth.

    This is what we really think

  2. Morning All

    Will be a sensible move for Abbott to embrace all the savings suggested by Labor and to blame the pain on them – Labor would do exactly the same thing if they were in his shoes.

    In saying that, it’s probably only half of what he actually needs to fund what he wants to do – I’d be very surprised if he announces where any of the balance is coming from other than reinforcing his slashing of the public service. In an interview yesterday he seemed to be hinting the numbers could be higher than 12,000

    Hunt is repeating the “tax cuts without a carbon tax” line so they are obviously planning to do something on that front.

    Refusing the pair is petty, Morrison suggested that a Labor member who was given a pair yesterday turned up to vote – can anyone confirm if that’s true???

    Jon Faine – asking the question if Julia’s tears yesterday were sincere, I have little doubt that there was genuine emotion. Congratulations to Labor on locking in a nation changing reform.

    Off to work, have a great day all

  3. mb, Abbott is nervous because his standard political strategy – adamant opposition in all things – is coming apart. He had to jump on board the NDIS. He cannot afford to oppose the budget. Even his plan to ditch the carbon tax now appears fiscally rash.

    His PPL is also in trouble, both politically and fiscally. He can’t afford it, but it is his sole claim to policy fame and he must be loathe to ditch it.

  4. mb

    yesterday u made excuses for abbott and his no show

    why change to day

    so the last two lines of todays post,

    what sort of seed are you planting.


    I do realy try to fathom out your posts???

  5. victoria
    Posted Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:28 am | PERMALINK

    Dont they need a majority of 76 for a motion to succeed?


    Yes it wont happen

    How is abbott going to call one , if the coward agrees with labor in the budget cuts

  6. Yes, they’d need 76 votes. They could get them with no pairs and enough help from the cross-benchers, but there’s no sign of that. I don’t think there’s anything to worry about. Their position on Rowland is just the coalition and Abbott acting in their natural, cold way without considering a possible backlash.

  7. triton

    Thomson has already stated he would not support a motion. Cant see Bandt, Windsor, Oakie, and even Katter supporting one. Also not sure if Slipper would help out Abbott this time around.
    The coalition cant just rely on Wilkie and Crook. Unless of course, they have some Labor MPs on their side. 😀

  8. Morning all.

    What is happening? The opps have had two bad days in QT, have been wrong-footed on the budget, had their tactic of avoiding the PM present the NDIS levy bills to the House backfire, and now this business with Ms Rowland’s sick baby.

    [The blunt refusal risks undermining Mr Abbott’s attempts to paint himself as woman-friendly and appears to contradict the principles of his paid parental leave scheme and industrial relations policy.]

    Clearly the opps don’t think Ms Rowland is a woman of calibre. This will not go well. Expect the opps to start lying that they didn’t know the baby was sick like they tried to lie that they didn’t know the bills were being presented yesterday morning.

  9. [And Chris Pyne just lied on Sky that they didn’t know it was a sick child.]
    Well, that took less time than I thought!

  10. So the husband is looking after the child but the MP needs to rush back also ? What a pathetic bunch of hypocrites. Are you suggesting the father is incapable of looking after the child ? How often do mothers and fathers both rush back from work to look after a sick child ? Some serious reverse sexism trolling through here.
    I guess when the ALP drones are desperate they will spew any hatred they can get their hands on.

  11. Confessions

    I did not see Sky news, but Pyne told Kieran Gilbert that they did not know the baby was sick, but apparently letter shown that the coalition knew

  12. The Rowland Affair is an example of what I was arguing the other day: the Liberals will simply revert to their mean when in government.

    This is also another example of Abbott’s inner prick hanging out for all to see.

    It is not as if there is a shortage of useless drones in the Shadow Cabinet who could have been paired with Rowland.

  13. victoria:

    Shorter Liberal party: Michelle Rowland wouldn’t be in this position if she’d stayed home in the kitchen where she belongs.

  14. But other than the assertion in the first paragraph the whole article is about the denying of the pair. Nothing on who changed their mind and why.

  15. briefly @ 2482

    Gauss, the origin of the economic collapse in the UK was indeed a collapse in credit extended to households so they could speculate in property. The deterioration in public finance is a consequence of this, not a cause.

    Briefly I’m not arguing that the origin of the crisis was not the speculative property bubble and it’s causes. What I and others are arguing is that the excessive fiscal response to it and the GFC, by Gordon Brown’s Government, (11.5 % of GDP in 2009 is like Australia running a yearly deficit today of $170 Billion) only aggravated the crisis because eventually the piper has to be paid.

    I guess we will have to agree to disagree.

  16. peeps

    looking on not posting

    abbot agrees with our budget


    and soon will have no Parental leave platform
    business not happy

    soo why change your vote
    the country is running along on some great well oiled

    tracks why derail with has been`s
    no policies and

    a front shadow bench that is the same as howards
    the shallow hollow lnp

    have nothing to offer

  17. And on the NDIS, were ALL the ALP members there ? The ALP side looked mighty thinned out also. Of doesn’t the master allow criticism of their own side ?

  18. briefly again @ 2482

    Meanwhile I have never advocated capital controls but believe a depreciation is inevitable.

    You should try verballing someone else

    Then for example what do you mean by the bolded words in your reply to CC here on 30 Apr @ 11.04 pm

    CC, were it up to me, we would not run specially big deficits – only so big as would be needed to prevent a jump in unemployment. But we would re-order the tax system overnight. We would get rid of the tax shelters and the concessions. We would steepen the progressive scale and support the disposable incomes of middle and lower income households. We would assert control over the exchange rate . We would institute new regulations in banking and relax interest rates. We would fight to protect jobs and support social spending. We would absolutely respond to “hot” portfolio capital flows into the AUD market.

  19. My Say

    Abbott has clearly shown the coalition are incompetent to be in government

    after all the propaganda that labor is no good, Abbott is keeping majority of what labor implemented

    Are people going to be that gullible

  20. I think the ABC is using Pyne’s “More importantly we would have said why would you wait until 5.00 Thursday to go home. You need to go home today,” as the granting of the pair. I don’t think so, but with Pyne saying that I don’t think the coalition can continue to refuse.

  21. confessions

    And what does SEN sports radio report in its news break? Pyne repeating his lie on Sky news. What a frickin joke. The letter confirms they knew pairing was sought due to an unwell child.

  22. I want answer your question but other side will
    last month baby not well

    daughter was working her one day

    oh was home with other child,

    NO car as he had a flat

    she had to tear home
    things happen

    it was urgent she go,,
    her employee say, go

    and tony abbott want woman to have more children
    and has this hollow ppl

    any lib who thinks the mp should not have gone home
    is as a big disgrace as him the hollow lotto

  23. Pyne is an even more accomplished liar than Abbott. He can embroider
    [“It could have been a cousin, it could have been a parent, it could have been an uncle,” he said.

    “But if we’d known it had been Michelle Rowland’s child we would have given her a pair.]

  24. confessions

    [And Chris Pyne just lied on Sky that they didn’t know it was a sick child.

    Well, that took less time than I thought!

    Just heard him with Fran making the same claim. But how low can a Pyne go ? Low enough to try and lay blame on Michelle Rowland. He asked that if she had a sick baby “Why would you wait until 5:00 pm on Thursday ?” . The “bad” mother should have left immediately.

  25. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏@Thefinnigans 6m
    Prissy Pyne did a SSO to force Craig Thomson to make an explanation to the House. Division for gagging Prissy now

  26. poroti:

    The Liberal party obviously think that Ms Rowland is to blame. After all, if she’d stayed at home in the kitchen where she belongs this would never have happened.

  27. Anyone know what this is? Is it Hunt saying Treasury official told him the budget figures were all lies?

    RubyRainbow ‏@ColouredView 7m
    Now it’s the #abc running Greg Hunt repeating corridor gossip as a credible news story? This is #qualityjournalism?

  28. when the letter denying the pair says “due to her child being unwell” in what language does that equal maybe a cousin or an uncle

  29. [when the letter denying the pair says “due to her child being unwell” in what language does that equal maybe a cousin or an uncle]

    In Pyne Land the facts can be whatever you want them to be.

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