Seat of the week: Aston

Redistribution has given Labor a boost in an eastern Melbourne seat that has remained outside their grasp for over two decades, though perhaps not enough of one in the current environment.

The outer eastern Melbourne electorate of Aston was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 and held by Labor in the early years of its existence, since which time it has steadily strengthened for the Liberals. It covers the Liberal-leaning suburbs of Wantirna in the north and Rowville in the south, along with naturally marginal territory in Wantirna’s eastern neigbours Bayswater and Ferntree Gully. The redistribution has effected an eastwards shift at the northern end by moving 16,000 voters in Liberal-leaning Vermont to Deakin and adding a similar number in marginal Boronia from La Trobe, reducing the Liberal margin from 1.8% to 0.7%.

Aston was held for its first two terms by Labor’s John Saunderson, who had won the neighbouring seat of Deakin for Labor in 1983. Saunderson inherited a notional Labor margin of 4.1%, which rose to 6.5% in 1987. Saunderson then copped the full force of Labor’s statewide battering in 1990, when it was one of three Victorian seats to record double-digit swings to the Coalition and one of nine to be gained by them. The seat was then held for the Liberals by Peter Nugent, a noted moderate who at times bucked his party’s line on indigenous issues. Nugent’s sudden death in April 2001 resulted in a by-election three months later which delivered the Howard government a morale-boosting win that predated the game-changing Tampa episode by a month, Labor managing a swing of only 3.7% swing in the face of a 4.2% Liberal margin.

The member for the next two terms was Chris Pearce, a Knox councillor and managing director of an IT company. Pearce picked up a 7.1% swing at the 2004 election, the biggest in the state in the context of what was a strong performance by the Liberals throughout suburban Melbourne. It was widely noted that this left the seat with a bigger Liberal margin than the famously blue-ribbon Kooyong, which was seen to typify the hold the Howard government had secured in middle-class outer suburbs. However, it equally joined many such seats in swinging heavily to Labor at the 2007 election, when an 8.1% swing reduced Pearce’s margin to 5.1%. Pearce meanwhile became closely associated with Peter Costello, and his announcement he would bow out at the 2010 election came hard on the heels of Costello’s.

The hotly contested preselection to choose Pearce’s successor was won by Alan Tudge, a former staffer to Brendan Nelson and Alexander Downer, ahead of Neil Angus, a chartered accountant who would go on to win Forest Hill for the Liberals at the November 2010 state election. Labor was vaguely hopeful that Pearce’s retirement would help add Aston to a list of Victorian gains compensating for expected losses in New South Wales and Queensland, but the 3.3% swing fell short of the 5.1% margin. Labor has again endorsed its candidate from the 2010 election, Rupert Evans, deputy secretary of the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,002 comments on “Seat of the week: Aston”

Comments Page 13 of 41
1 … 12 13 14 … 41

  2. I identified mistakes when you last went through this with a list … as I recall they were of little consequence in the scheme of things. No one is infallible… but she is the lady of the hour without hesitation. To intimate Slipper as her failure is just a nonsense when she again schooled her opposite number in political nous and left him flat footed. He has never bested her… never.

  3. Mod Lib
    [Slipped shouldn’t have been selected for the Speaker of the House. That is the mistake of Gillard]
    Why not? He was a fantastic Speaker, the best in living memory.

    He had impeccable references, from the LNP and Tony Abbott no less. Nine times preselected by the LNP, Abbott his Best Man at his wedding, Peter Slipper won the job on merit.

  7. ML

    As you well know, I have been critical of JG for as long as I’ve been posting here. I last posted something critical of her in response to BH … today, calling her, inter alia, ‘jejune’. I raised quite a few issues.

  8. Fran Barlow

    I would like to offer my good wishes on the journey to your new home.

    Many more at the wrenching departure, as you described it, from you and your family’s long held experience and memories.

    I have not read all the back posts from this morning, so do not know if you have found a worthy electorate, or indeed a school to teach.

    Whatever, best of luck. Sincerely.

  15. Swing Required

    re Romania and Slovenia
    ___________________
    You must later read the first two novels of Olivia Manning’s
    great “Balkan Trilogy” series
    The first two novels(they are usually sold in a single volume containing the 3 novels)…are set in Bucharest and elsewhere in Romania between 1939-1941..and tellS of the events there through the lives of a British couple(he a lecturer) as the war rolls closer to them

    It’s a stunning picture of Bucharest as the war slowly encroaches on what started off as a”neutral” country …under a corrupt King .Carol…a friend of the UK and France ,,,but when the Nazis conquer France and much of the west in mid-1940,,,Carol is swept away in a f

    ..only to leave there too and go to Egypt(thereis a second series of 3 novels called The Levant Trilogy…set in wartime Egypt and Syria and Lebanon)

    \Some years ago the BBC did a brilliant series on the novels and filmed it in Slovenia/Egypt …Romania then being under Caucescue…under the title “Fortunes of War”

    Brilliant novels which make Bucharest come alive…as does a grand hotel there..The Athenee Palace”(still in business too)

  16. might be wrong but that’s my take on it.
    Re Posting. Now that you are about.
    269
    crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, May 11, 2013 at 2:28 pm | PERMALINK
    SWING REQUIRED AND DEBLONAY

    RE PATRICK LEIGH FERMOR

    Apart from borrowing his books from me, many of his books incl Between Woods and Water and A Time of Gifts: On Foot to Constantinople are available very cheaply from AbeBooks, sellers in UK.

    http://www.abebooks.com/servlet/SearchResults?an=patrick+leigh+fermor&bsi=0&prevpage=2

  17. SWING REQUIRED AND DEBLONAY

    That was a bit messy.

    Re Posting. Now that you are about.

    ie 269 crikey whitey
    Posted Saturday, May 11, 2013 at 2:28 pm | PERMALINK

    RE PATRICK LEIGH FERMOR

    Apart from borrowing his books from me, many of his books incl Between Woods and Water and A Time of Gifts: On Foot to Constantinople are available very cheaply from AbeBooks, sellers in UK.

    http://www.abebooks.com/servlet/SearchResults?an=patrick+leigh+fermor&bsi=0&prevpage=2

  20. morpheus@576


    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/pay-hikes-doom-restaurants/story-fn59niix-1226639697386

    “THE restaurant industry is in crisis, with 1000 venues set to close their doors this year after falling victim to an explosion in wage costs, the industry association said yesterday.

    The growth in wages over the past two years meant that about 50 per cent of restaurants were unprofitable, the Restaurant and Catering Association estimated.”

    It doesn’t really matter as the unions would rather a business die and all employees be out of work rather than looking at what’s good for the industry. Perhaps Swanny can give the businesses a few pointers on how to successfully balance the books. What could possibly go wrong ?

    What utter bollocks.

    The real reason is people with no business skills being seduced by all the “chef” shows on TV and having dollar signs light up in their eyes.

    They fail to do a budget (ie take into account ALL costs) and set themselves up to fail.

    I notice you failed to quote the final paragraphs in that article, so let me refresh your memory:

    [Melbourne hospitality consultant Tony Eldred said oversupply was a problem as restaurants had “increased 400 per cent since the 1990s, during that time the population has increased only 20 per cent”. “The inefficient operators are dropping out like flies at the moment; inefficient in terms of business skills, not restaurant skills,” he said.

    Property developers were driving the industry, not restaurant operators. “Docklands came in and put in eight times the number of restaurant seats we figured the number of people in the area could sustain. It’s pretty stupid, but then humanity does things that continue to surprise,” he said.]

  21. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Singo “sets it straight”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/its-time-to-set-the-record-straight-20130511-2jezq.html#
    From Peter FitzSimons’ column.
    [God, not this again
    In a week dominated by the extraordinary news out of Cleveland, concerning the three young women liberated after a decade’s captivity in a suburban basement, one quote stood out for me. ”For Amanda’s family, for Gina’s family, for Michelle’s family, prayers have finally been answered,” FBI special agent Steve Anthony told a press conference.
    Sorry, how does it actually work again, for religious folk of all descriptions? What is the model? Is it that your god allows such terrible things to happen, but the belief is that if enough people fall to their knees and ask him to change things, he becomes an interventionist god? I pose this as a serious question. What evidence is there that it does work?]
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/if-theres-no-kiss-and-tell-why-fuss-20130511-2jegm.html#ixzz2T18V4WvA
    And we wonder why vaccination rates are so low!
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/many-alternative-medicines-fail-test-20130511-2jew1.html
    Peter Martin on the forthcoming budget.
    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/smoke-signals-but-there-simply-isnt-any-good-news-20130511-2jf0d.html

  23. Just a comment on the restaurant thingy

    Seems to me the biggest impost on small to medium restaurants is the cost of rent. Few would get away with less than $150,000 per year which for a smallish businesses eg Owner/Manager, Chef/assistant, waiters x 2 means that the rent will almost always be the same or greater than the staff costs. For smaller businesses (eg coffee shops)that operate without a chef, rent will exceed labor costs by quite a margin

  24. And from the Land of the Free –

    London in 1927 in colour.
    http://americablog.com/2013/05/neat-color-film-of-london-in-1927-video.html
    Well who would ever have thought!!
    http://americablog.com/2013/05/oregon-insurers-vying-to-lower-premiums-because-of-obamacare.html
    Some cartoons on the “Party of NO!”
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/05/11/cartoons-of-the-day-still-the-party-of-no/
    Bill Maher on 3D printed guns.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/11/bill-maher-3d-printers-guns-real-time_n_3259756.html
    More gun stupidity.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/11/guns-in-schools_n_3258786.html

  26. Why is it only evil when Libs cut welfare?

    Gee you lot sure took your angry pills last night. Poor ML is probably still shaking under the covers too scared to come out.

  28. CrikeyWhitey:

    [I would like to offer my good wishes on the journey to your new home.]

    Thanks so much. Assuming the bank stumps up the money in good time (the wheels are grinding a little slowly for my liking) I’m headed off to Pendle Hill, in Greenway. It seems a congenial place.

    That said, it is hard to leave a place you’ve inhabited through a period as personally significant as raising children.

    Gecko:

    [likewise best of luck from me too Fran. BTW inveigh is also a very enjoyable word]

    It is. It’s related to words such as ‘vehement’ and even ‘vehicle’ and ‘invective’. Its etymology is in the notion of ‘carriage’ with the idea of being swept along forcefully, perhaps in an emotional tide. ‘Vehemence’ which also comprises ‘men(s)’ (‘mind’ in Latin) strongly reflects this metaphor.

    [Fran: Your BH response was presumptuous and far from your best work. Sorry.]

    Rather than apologise, why not specify the flaws you found? Along that path lies insight for both of us.

  29. davidwh

    @jjarichardson: 53-year-old grandmother impoverished by the bedroom tax commits suicide by jumping in front of lorry: http://t.co/C5wdpGlTeL Unspeakable.

    Government policy known to cause harm. Of course people get angry and rightly so.

  31. davidwh

    [
    Why is it only evil when Libs cut welfare?
    ]
    For some reason deep welfare cuts aimed at the bottom of the heap while giving millionaires an average £100,000 tax cut pisses people off.

  32. Poroti

    Methinks Mr Combet protests too much.

    I like Combet. He has been an effective minister BUT he was complicit indeed instrumental in keeping Gillard and not helping Rudd, so he must wear the criticism.

    We are defeatist because it is obviously likely

    Labor has lost its way seems obvious too – the whole AS issue.

    Methinks perhaps he has had words with his ex on this and is just grumpy

  33. [davidwh
    Posted Sunday, May 12, 2013 at 7:29 am | PERMALINK
    Why is it only evil when Libs cut welfare?

    Gee you lot sure took your angry pills last night. Poor ML is probably still shaking under the covers too scared to come out.]

    Close, but no cigar….under the covers, doing the cryptic and blogging….. 🙂

  34. The prime minister’s adviser on enterprise has told the cabinet that the economic downturn is an excellent time for new businesses to boost profits and grow because labour is cheap, the Observer can reveal.

    Lord Young, a cabinet minister under the late Baroness Thatcher, who is the only aide with his own office in Downing Street, told ministers that the low wage levels in a recession made larger financial returns easier

    The prime minister’s adviser on enterprise has told the cabinet that the economic downturn is an excellent time for new businesses to boost profits and grow because labour is cheap, the Observer can reveal.

    Lord Young, a cabinet minister under the late Baroness Thatcher, who is the only aide with his own office in Downing Street, told ministers that the low wage levels in a recession made larger financial returns easier
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/may/11/young-

    recession-cheap-labour

    =============================================================

    story from the old country
    should we be worried about abbott led gov.

    u decide

  36. “@InsidersABC: Panel is @lenoretaylor @GMegalogenis and Brian Toohey .. And @mpbowers talks cartoons and pics with Mark Knight from @theheraldsun”

    Good panel for IR and budget issues IMO

  38. the old pb
    of some years ago.

    would of had nice mother s day messages

    so where is the soul of pb

    these days does it have one

    =============================

    whats the first thing i read

    from a SUPPOSEDLY alp person some critic of the PM

    ==================================================

    well well well,

    =====================================================

    davvid what an uneducated question re libs and welfare

    just do your research
    and reading the story above, and the one guytur presented says it all.

    in 1979/83 people committed suicide in this country over
    high interest rate, and no compassion from a gov .
    at that time

    how do i know 6 weeks old baby , rang senator liberal
    said is there some tax breaks you could give families

    REPLY get a job

    get a job get a job

    —————
    no child care then with int, at 15 percent

    int, rates are always high with the liberals

    so abbott it this his cutting taking IS UNNESACCARY
    but would do it any way.

    so inflation and int rates will sore.

    yes suicide did happen in that time,
    bankruptcy

    do u know at this point aus. has very low bankruptcy

    so that tell u some thing

  40. [int, rates are always high with the liberals]

    Interest rates have been lower on average under the liberals over the last 40 years.

    [so abbott it this his cutting taking IS UNNESACCARY
    but would do it any way.

    so inflation and int rates will sore.]

    Inflation has been lower on average under the Liberal party compared with ALP.

    [yes suicide did happen in that time,
    bankruptcy

    do u know at this point aus. has very low bankruptcy

    so that tell u some thing]

    To bring suicide into political debate is quite wrong.

  41. [“@InsidersABC: Panel is @lenoretaylor @GMegalogenis and Brian Toohey .. And @mpbowers talks cartoons and pics with Mark Knight from @theheraldsun”

    Good panel for IR and budget issues IMO]

    A very good panel, now if only they got rid of Barry I might watch it.

  43. I don’t need pro ALP, I just can’t stand self-important clowns.

    I’d even enjoy an intelligent pro liberal mouth piece, just as soon as you guys find one.

  44. Updating: gun homicides (all causes) in the US since Sandy Hook (14 December –> 10 May)

    Total Days: 146
    Total Deaths: 3962

    Daily Average (approx) 27 deaths per day.

    Filter for teen children:

    Total Deaths: 199

    Filter for pre-teen children:

    Total Deaths: 75

    A shocking toll …

  45. Dan Gulberry, you quoted an interesting article on that restaurant wages furphy:
    [“THE restaurant industry is in crisis, with 1000 venues set to close their doors this year after falling victim to an explosion in wage costs, the industry association said yesterday.]
    As you said this is utter rubbish. When you check ABS figures, you find that restaurants and catering has expanded greatly in the past decade. Some correction was inevitable. The main driver of costs is our retail rentals, which are the highest in the world.
    http://www.smartcompany.com.au/retail/20110701-australia-s-retail-rents-the-highest-in-the-world-report.html

    In fact the same was true of retailing and services generally before the GFC. Consumer spending was at an all time high compared to the previous 50 years. Retailers had grown complacent, and landlords greedy. High rentals and high profit margins have combined to make Australian retailing, accommodation and restaurants among the world’s most expensive. It is not wages, or the GST, which is among the lower rates compared to other sales taxes in the OECD.

    The Productivity Commission did an utterly useless inquiry into retail rents in 2008. Bizarrely they saw the high incomes of landlords as a good thing, rather than a cost. Why has this pointless right-wing economists sheltered workshop, set up by Howard, survived?
    http://www.pc.gov.au/projects/inquiry/retail-tenancies

    Internet trading is actually doing some good, forcing Harvey Normans, Myers and DJs to lower their obscene price levels to compete. Westfields is the other evil empire here.

  47. Its not only Happy Mothers Day to all mothers. It is also Happy International Nurses Day to all the nurses who care.

Comments Page 13 of 41
1 … 12 13 14 … 41

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *