UPDATE (29/4/13): Essential Research is perfectly unchanged for the second week in a row, with Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with the Coalition lead at 55-45. It finds a seven point drop since last June in respondents who think the economy is heading in the right direction, to 36%, and has 38% expecting the budget to be bad for them personally against 12% good and 38% neutral. Respondents were also asked about preferred revenue-raising measures, with “higher taxes for corporations” towering above the pack on 64%. Reducing tax breaks for higher income earners was net positive (45% approve, 38% disapprove), but reductions in the baby bonus and family tax and any spending cuts were rated negatively. It was also found that 45% believed population growth too fast, 37% about right and only 5% too slow.
New England was created at federation and has changed remarkably little since, at all times accommodating Armidale and Tamworth and losing Glen Innes only between 1934 and 1949. Currently the electorate sits inland of the north coast seats of Richmond, Cowper and Lyne, extending southwards from the local government areas of Tenterfield and Inverell on the Queensland border through Glen Innes and Armidale to Tamworth, Gunnedah and Walcha. Tony Windsor has been the seat’s independent member since 2001, when he ended an uninterrupted run of National/Country Party control going back to 1922.
Windsor came to politics from a background as a local farmer and economist, winning the state seat of Tamworth as an independent in 1991 after unsuccessfully seeking preselection to succeed a retiring Nationals member. Windsor had received the support of seven out of nine local party branches, and his defeat prompted a revolt among local members of the Nationals as well as the Liberal Party, which did not field a candidate at the election. He went on to win election with 36.2% of the primary vote to 31.9% for the Nationals candidate, prevailing by 9.8% after preferences. Windsor’s victory gave him an early taste of life as an independent in a hung parliament, Nick Greiner’s Coalition government having lost its majority at the election. Windsor was at first the most accommodating of the independents in shoring up Greiner’s position in parliament, but he would join the others in forcing Greiner’s resignation following an adverse ICAC finding in June 1992. Windsor polled 82.2% of the primary vote in the absence of Nationals or Liberal candidates in 1995, which came down to 69.4% when the Nationals fielded a candidate in 1999.
Windsor announced his intention to contest New England two months out from the 2001 federal election, having also floated the idea of running against then Nationals leader John Anderson in the neighbouring seat of Gwydir. He duly recorded 45.0% of the primary vote against 38.9% for Nationals incumbent Stuart St Clair, who had come to the seat in 1998 in succession to retiring former party leader Ian Sinclair, and prevailed by 8.3% after preferences. Windsor’s primary vote would swell to 57.3% in 2004 and to 61.9% at consecutive elections in 2007 and 2010. Windsor’s testy relationship with the Nationals worsened in the lead-up to the 2004 election when he claimed he had been offered a sinecure if he agreed to quit politics, telling parliament a few months later that the offer was communicated to him by a Tamworth businessman acting at the behest of John Anderson and Nationals Senator Sandy Macdonald. This was denied by all concerned, including the businessman.
Household name status awaited Windsor after the 2010 election left him and four other cross-benchers holding the balance of power. With independent Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt of the Greens declaring early for Labor, Julia Gillard needed the support of two of the three remaining independents to achieve a majority. Each represented electorates that were rural and broadly conservative, especially in Windsor’s case. It was thus an especially bold move on Windsor’s part to join with Lyne MP Rob Oakeshott in throwing their lot in with Labor. All indications since have been that Windsor and Oakeshott have paid a high political price for their decision, in contrast to Kennedy MP Bob Katter who cagily declared for the Coalition as the Windsor-Oakeshott deal made his vote redundant. A Newspoll survey of 500 voters in October 2011 had Windsor trailing the Nationals 41% to 33% on the primary vote and 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences. In June 2012, at which time it was anticipated Richard Torbay would be the Nationals candidate, a ReachTEL poll of 532 respondents 532 respondents gave Torbay a primary vote lead of 62% to 25%.
Richard Torbay’s name first emerged as a possible Nationals candidate in mid-2011, though it was said at the time that this was conditional on Windsor retiring. Torbay had been an independent member for the state parliament since 1999, when he unseated Nationals member Ray Chappell in the Armidale-based seat of Northern Tablelands. Torbay’s primary vote progressed from 44.2% to 71.3% in 2003 and 72.7% in 2007, before falling back to 63.4%. In the wake of the latter result Torbay complained of “the trashing of the independent brand”, which was easy to interpret as a dig at Windsor and Oakeshott. He also revealed at this time that he had been approached to run for New England by the Liberals and Katter’s Australian Party as well as the Nationals, and that he was taking very seriously the offer from the latter. His intention was confirmed in mid-2012, when the party granting him “freedom to speak with an independent voice on local issues”.
Torbay’s ambitions became rapidly unstuck in March 2013 when the Financial Review reported he had received assistance from embattled Labor operative Eddie Obeid ahead of his run for state parliament in 1999. Over the next two days Torbay withdrew as candidate and resigned as member for Northern Tablelands, with Nationals state chairman saying the party had received unspecified information “of which we were not previously aware”. This information was referred to ICAC, which raided Torbay’s home and electorate office the following week. Torbay’s loss proved a gain for Barnaby Joyce, who had emerged as the Nationals’ most visible figure since his election to the Senate in 2004 and was widely thought a more promising candidate for the party leadership than low-profile incumbent Warren Truss. Joyce had been open in his desire to move to the lower house, and nominated New England, where he had been born and raised, as his second favoured entry point after the Queensland rural seat of Maranoa.
Not all within the NSW Nationals were quite so keen on furnishing the nominal outsider with what had traditionally been a stronghold seat for the party. In 2011 his opponents sounded out the party’s state leader, Deputy Premier Andrew Stoner, with a view to stonewalling Joyce by contesting the seat and assuming the federal party leadership. Stoner said he wasn’t interested, and the Torbay option would firm in its stead after party polling in early 2012 showed he offered the clearest path to victory over Windsor, including in comparison with Joyce. Thwarted in Maranoa by incumbent Bruce Scott’s determination to serve another term, Joyce reconciled himself for the time being to continue serving in the Senate. When Torbay withdrew Joyce was quick to reiterate his interest, although there were suggestions he might have a strong preselection opponent in the shape of Nationals Farmers Federation president Alexander “Jock” Laurie. However, Laurie instead chose to run in the state by-election to replace Torbay in Northern Tablelands, and Joyce went to an easy 150-10 win in the local preselection vote over Tamworth IT businessman David Gregory.
I always liked Maggie Thatcher after she said “There is no sobriety”.
OK, I’ll amend:
“Its not sexist for people to sing “Ding, dong the witch is dead”, because:
1. It was in a song from the Wizard of Oz
2. A Soccer coach used it
3. Medieval folk were scared of witches
…is that better now? 😉
Watch out!
Clive Palmer’s policies in detail coming up next on MTP…
“@justinbarbour: Clive Palmer just hinted that polls are in the field, testing support for the UAP. #mtp10”
Polls out Monday?
So wll the Libs campaign song this year be “Just walk away Rene” or “Run Run Runaway”?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-26/fresh-concerns-on-liberal-gst-plans/4654680
Abbott doesn’t run away; he walks away in a very specific manner which was memorably described as the “Pimp Roll” by Tom Wolfe.
[“He had the same pumping swagger that practically every young defendant in the Bronx affected, the Pimp Roll. Such stupid self-destructive macho egos, thought Kramer. They never failed to show up with the black jackets and the sneakers and the Pimp Roll…”
]
Henderson is getting to look more and more like a gnome.
Fran
Give it up
Sometime it is wise to admit we are not perfect.
The Ding dong the witch is dead was disturbing, but more so in that it revealed the depth of hatred still existing for Thatcher. I was surprised at its strength after so many years..
However it is reality, and just like the hanging of Mussolini or Hussein or indeed riots and long lived hatreds, expressing the sentiment is not wrong in itself if extremely surprising.
Nor do I necessarily think using terms such as witch or bitch about a female politician is necessarily wrong PROVIDED people use similar gender related terms about males.
Now here is an interesting question
There are a number of pejorative female only terms in common use
witch,bitch, slut, slag, shrew, hag, whore, cow, sow, bimbo, moll are the ones that spring to mind.
Now the question is are the equally pejorative MALE terms.
Dick head is the most obvious – it is mostly used for males but perhaps not always
The male equivalents of cow are not pejorative though descriptive (bull and ox)
Bastard – mostly male but NOT always – and it is not always pejorative. Interestingly its female equivalent IS used for males ie C**t
Turd – pretty much a male term
Pig – unisex as is Hogg
Cur – The male equivalent of bitch I feel is cur or mangy dog. Now I rather well recall shouting our Kerr’s Cur about Fraser. Was that sexist language, because somehow I do not think if Fraser had been female he would have been referred to as a cur.
Now what about rodent – I really have no idea – I cannot think of a case of a women being referred to as a rodent, but I am just not sure. Of course mouse is used for both sexes
Monkey cannot think of a female to whom it would ever be attached
Snake is very unisex.
What I am trying to get at is that abusive language is very common place and used to match names and perceived characteristics.
Sloppy Joe, Barnyard,Rodent, Monkey are all pretty pejorative. Question is are they also Gender based.
Before we go all shock horror about pejorative rhymes we need to be a little objective about our own use of abusive terms.
More personal abuse CTar1….
…apparently there are MPs about to jump ship to Clive’s UAP!
Palmer saying he will not name anyone but has members in Parliament ready to cross to his party.
Also for those not watching Palmer says he has registerted UAP and Uniting Australia Party.
The confusion a tactic he taught when director at National party to sow confusion regarding names.
…… your laughter is as my be, devolved as it is from desperation.
your sincerity plainly has a weak adhesive.
….. luck with the woodworking.
ML
I pressed the ‘pause’ button after Lenore launched into Tony’s ‘brilliant’ and all 4 of them are in shot.
Henderson’s defensive pose is cracking me up!
With a name like Uniting Australia Party, I just wonder if their is any Methodism in his madness.
I am NOT sure but possibly Clive is tapping in to the Liberal dislike of the National alliance.
I have heard it whispered that the Nationals are running the Libs and while I think it tosh, there may well be liberals out there who believe it strongly.
DTT
Strange. All if history associates Palmer with Nationals not Liberals.
Palmer funded the salary of Newman while he ran for Ashgrove
But yes he funded Borbidge and Springbord. Perhaps it is the Nationals section he might take on.
He probably WILL get defectors – there are rather TOO many underemployed back backbenchers with no long term prospects, so switching to Clive might be tempting
DTT – Right I’d say.
The Qld Nationals seem to have some people who call themselves Liberals but what they seem to be about is attacking Federal Liberals.
Clive’s little exercise is becoming more like the ALP split in the 50’s everyday.
The logical thing for him to do to maximise his vote is carve votes from the Libs by having a stoush with Abbott over policy.
GG
[by having a stoush with Abbott over policy.]
If Clive can work out what their policies are.
Ctar1,
He should make it up then. Make himself appear like a man of substance.
“I have been mining for minerals down a big dark black hole for years. That’s why I can see the future”. Vote for me!
Whoever “Chris Johnson, National Political Correspondent” is, he hasn’t written much of note in the past.
A quick check of his Fairfax credentials reveals this is his first column for the SMH. He has previously written columns for the Canberra Times.
A quick Google of his name brings up nothing but other “Chris Johnsons”.
Where did “Chris Johnson” come from? I dunno. And I don’t care.
The subject of his very first column for the SMH was “How the Left was nasty to Leigh Sales”.
There was indeed quite a kerfuffle about the treatment meted out on twitter to Leigh Sales over her interview.
Gaffhook wrote a fairly nasty tweet wondering whether Abbott’s appendage tasted salty (with the hint that Leigh would know, if anyone did), to which Leigh took grave exception, which is fair enough. Gaffhook deleted the tweet.
I made an effort myself, a slightly updated version of a “Policy Truck” graphic I created from a couple of weeks ago (with Leigh as The Otto Bin Girl, instead of The Barrel Girl, fairly appropriate for a TV show, I thought), which I thought was not offensive or sexist, and which was retweeted a few times in return for my efforts.
I didn’t see the other efforts of other tweeters. Gaffhook’s was the only “nasty” tweet that riled the right into claiming the debate had sunk into the gutter.
God knows what they’d have thought if someone had tweeted that Sales “had targets on her forehead”, or “should be kicked to death”, or that “viewers were coming after her with baseball bats” or was “dead but wouldn’t lie down.”
The reason “the left” got cranky with the interview was that Sales didn’t offer even one of her trademark “interruptions”, so beloved by viewers of her interviews with Labor politicians, especially the Prime Minister.
The feeling, the vibe about the set-piece interrogation, was that if she had given Abbott a hard time – talking over him, badgering him, heckling and barracking against him, putting his political opponents’ talking points to him – then he might not have ever come back to the 7.30 set, and that Leigh had been informed of this in no uncertain terms.
After all, Leigh herself made Abbott’s no-shows a pointed issue. Did he not have a diary space for month after month? Or was there a more obvious reason he didn’t front? The conclusions are self-evident. He objected to Sales giving him a hard time and wouldn’t turn up until she agreed to go a little easier on him. It’s not rocket science.
So she went easy as a sop to Abbott’s feelings.
Johnson’s citing of her “Walkley Winning” interview with him last year on the Olympic Dam issue (which Abbott had requested) cuts no ice with me at all. I can only quote one of Tony’s favourite phrases, used when executing a 180 degree about face on whatever policy matter he is struggling with at the time: “That was then. This is now.”
Was it Shakespeare who said, “One swallow doth not a Summer make”? Probably. Leigh nominated herself for a Walkley over an Abbott gaffe, and won the prize. Big deal. She got lucky.
One lucky break – and who thinks Abbott blurting out that he hadn’t read the Olympic Dam statement was anything but a total, unexpected gaffe by him? – doth not a career make, a point I made at the time when I said I had never trusted Sales and would continue not to do so, as it made life simpler for me.
Sales is somewhat girlish in both her voice, her demeanour and her attitude towards her job. She sounds cranky most of the time and has clearly been told that she is the fulcrum of the interview, not her interlocutor (whomever that may be).
She scored an unexpected win out of Abbott last year and won a prize for it. It’s gone to her head.
She is now expected to be stroppy and churlish – and let’s face it, outright rude – to every politician she interviews. She has a reputation for “hard-hitting” journalism to preserve.
Her interviews with the PM since the Abbott lucky break have conformed to this, being – if anything – even ruder than she was to Abbott. At one point in her last “battle” with Julia Gillard she actually apologized for interrupting.
Oh yes, she knew she was doing it alright. It’s part of her technique.
Sales’ problem is that she is out of her depth. She lacks the talent and the finesse of a truly great interviewer. She sounds like one of those 2GB interns at a doorstop yelling out, “Are you the WORST Prime Minister in history?!?!?!?” to Gillard as the lady walks by, the only difference being that Leigh’s got a national gig in a signature program.
She does “aggro” fairly well, but elicits virtually no information from her subject in the process.
In short… Leigh’s interviews are all about Leigh, not about informing the public and certainly not about courtesy towards her guest.
Leigh is not “hard-hitting”. She is a female version of Tony Abbott – all aggression and pent-up petulance, on the make, clawing her way to the top with sheer willpower.
Good on her for that, but there are penalties to be paid if you want to put yourself forward as a player. If you want to strut the national stage, remember that the nation is polarised, and be ready for the blowback.
One of the downsides is that you should expect to be mocked and ridiculed, especially when you suddenly abandon your previous personna of the chronically irritated, quick talking, interrupting badgerer and suddenly become, if not demure and silky, at least accommodating.
Abbott’s people have pretty clearly put Sales on notice that:
(a) They’ll be in power in a few months,
(b) She’d better be nicer to Abbot than she has been in the past.
(c) Or else…
… how else can this question be explained?
and then letting Abbott get away with yet another of his reinvention stories.
Not only has Tony reinvented Boats policy, PPL policy, tax policy, NBN policy and Surplus policy, but he has applied the “That was then. This is now” broad brush to himself by saying
The Master of Conviction Politics abandoning his convictions, even about his own personality, and all Sales could come up with as a rejoinder was:
That wasn’t, as some have said, a mistake by Sales, it was as weak as bloody piss of her to let him get away with that, without interruption, without heckling and without the slightest hint of any talk about policy in an interview titled Tony Abbott outlines ‘specific policy commitments’.
Call me crazy, but I suspect that’s why “the left” was cranky, and rightly so.
The apparently immaculately conceived “Chris Johnson” at Fairfax, a “National Political correspondent” who’s popped up out of nowhere, with no significant body of work that can be examined, should put away his angry pills and take some chill pills instead.
It’s going to get a lot worse Chris.
Pace yourself.
GG – It’ll be interesting if Clive stays at it as it will put real pressure on Tones to actually articulate what he’ll do if he gets in.
A 2013 election prediction from the Sawford formula: http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/the-sawford-formula.html – Labor to win.
The question for me with respect to Clive is what preference deals his party can do with Labor.
Mod Lib
The leader of the Liberal Party and many members of his party stood in front of placards and loud constant chanting that referred to the Prime Minister of Australia as a bitch and a witch.
When has the leader of the Labor Party or members of the Labor Party done likewise?
Do you intentionally want to paint both sides with the same brush or are you just an annoying little moron?
Mark the Ballot,
Now there’s some credible polling information at last.
My recollection is that the sawford model has only failed once to predict the outcome of an election.
DTT
[Sometimes it is wise to admit we are not perfect.]
I agree. I’ve never claimed perfection. We human beings can at best have partial insight into the world, our possibilities, our strengths and flaws — which is why we always do better when we facilitate equitable collaboration rather than rely on the genius of individuals or the ability to strike down the “evil”.
That said, I’m on sound ground in this discussion. It’s ML who appears implausible and now fatuous.
[The Ding dong the witch is dead was disturbing, but more so in that it revealed the depth of hatred still existing for Thatcher. I was surprised at its strength after so many years]
Thatcher has been out of active politics a long time. She was in no position to compound the harm she’d inflicted. All of the harm now being suffered, and the harm yet to come, was a consequence of past acts by her and her cultural cohort — amny of whom are still around and active. The celebrations of her death are very much like those scenes where insurgents tear down statues of tyrants like Ceaucescu and Stalin and Saddam. What people are really ‘hating’ is the legacy of Thatcherism. The death of Thatcher was merely the nearest thing to a symbol of all this pain that the demonstrators had. The reality is that while many have criticised Thatcher, the paradim she authored was firmly in place when the GFC came along and even today Cameron and Clegg (and indeed large parts of the world) are implementing austerity based on that very thing. Some of the signs expressly made the link — and now let’s finish Thatcherism.
[Nor do I necessarily think using terms such as witch or bitch about a female politician is necessarily wrong PROVIDED people use similar gender related terms about males.]
I strongly disagree — on at least two grounds:
1. Misogyny is marginalising and oppressive. It’s utterly contrary to notions of inclusive governance and it’s not possible for those keen on social inclusion to use it as a tool of political critique. You’d be exposed as unserious and certainly offend anyone who was.
2. It doesn’t square the ledger to put down men as not authentic because inevitably that too trades on attributing to them failing associated with women (“girly men”). Doing that reforges the bonds defining women as lesser humans. It doesn’t cancel out misogyny, but buttresses it.
It’s often forgotten that the slogan “Bob Brown’s B|tch” at that rally is a prison reference to homosexual sex — so the attackers here have managed to squeeze homophobia into the attack as well — de-authenticating his masculinity as well. Gillard — a doubtful female — is the mere victim and catspaw of a male who is not a real male because he is some sort of sadistic gay/bisexual
I’m not seeing that as squaring the card. Such references ought never be entertained by leftists.
[ Interestingly its female equivalent IS used for males ie C**t]
Just so. See #2 above.
Scientists on the edge of finding a cure for HIV virus. What a marvellous outcome that would be.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10022664/Scientists-on-brink-of-HIV-cure.html?utm_source=buffer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Buffer:%2Bvexnews%2Bon%2Btwitter&buffer_share=d4b63
Centre:
Ch9 was reporting earlier that overnight Singo had trucked most of his horses out of Waterhouse’s Randwick stables.
Looks like this tiff might be a permanent one.
Connie
Yes, the tiff is a down the line divorce 🙂 Singo would never have accused the Waterhouses of conflict of interest if it wasn’t.
Smart move by Singo to ship his horses out asap. He’d want them in one piece 😉
Centre,
Thus far, Singleton has made accusations but refused to reveal his sources when questioned by the stewads.
There’s more to this.
Oh i thought you said TRUCKED confessions…
The Singo/Waterhouse spat made the front page of the dead tree version of the Herald Sun
That’s right Tom. Waterhouse s**t doesn’t stink!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-28/waterhouse-launches-defence-over-more-joyous-allegations/4655650
The Northern Tablelands by-election if labor gets close or wins it
could claim another nationals federal candidate, i wont be surprise if Joyce pulls out and returns to the senate
O’Connor on 457 visas…
[More than 10,000 foreign workers are rorting the 457 visa system, Immigration Minister Brendan O’Connor declared on Sunday.
He released new figures showing the number of 457-visa holders on low incomes had doubled in the past year – the number of people holding “Accommodation and Food services” visas grew by 99 per cent and the number holding “Retail” visas grew by 75 per cent.
The average wage for accommodation and food workers was $55,000, and the average wage for retail workers was $69,000.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/457-visas-more-than-10000-are-rorting-system-says-minister-20130428-2imcy.html#ixzz2RijdqSFs
Of course, a true ‘rort’ means that those involved are playing within the rules – hence you can’t use numbers of those successfully prosecuted to prove rorting – but using loopholes in the system in ways the scheme was not intended for.
I saw Murihy interviewed on ABC News this morning – he seems to think there’s something worth investigating.
BK,
Tom Waterhouse is just a humble bookie not Arch Bishop Pell.
[In an interview with Channel 9 this morning, the bookmaker said he himself had backed the horse.]
That’d be a good ‘cover’.
Is Peter Fitzsimmons a friend of Singo? Tom Waterhouse is suing Fitzy for defamation at present
Growler
You can read my posts on the last two or three pages of the last thread 😎
I’m not sure why ML wants to bend over backwards to prove that none of the attacks on Julia Gillard are sexist in nature.
It suggests a dogmatism most scientists would be careful to avoid.
More worrying, this dismissal of the very idea there might be sexism at work is precisely the tactic used throughout the ages – denial of the problem, however minimal you may think the problem is, means the problem isn’t tackled.
The reason Julia Gillard’s speech on why Abbott was a hypocrite to lecture others on sexism and misogyny was a hit (regardless of ‘context’) was that it struck a chord in people from all walks of life and of all shades of political opinion.
One can argue to what extent attacks on Julia Gillard are sexist; one can’t credibly argue that there is no sexism involved at all.
Want to know what Abbott will be able to claim as travel expenses for his Pollie Pedal stunt? This year Tones will starting in Adelaide today and ending up in Geelong next Sunday. For that he’ll be claiming –
Adelaide – $373 a night
Country SA and Victoria – $354 a night.
We will also be paying the expenses of the staff he has with him. Whether or not the other politicians doing the ride claim expenses is up to them. On past rides some have not claimed a cent while others have hit us for the maximum for every day.
http://www.comlaw.gov.au/Details/F2012L01761
Ctar1,
Waterhouse claims to have lost $300k on More Joyous and has the records to prove it.
If he knew the horse was lame, I reckon he might have laid off.
Ah, nostalgia – remember when the Sawford formula was used to predict the return of John Howard in 2007? Sort of fallen into discredit since then…
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/the-sawford-formula.html?utm_source=buffer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Buffer:%2Bvexnews%2Bon%2Btwitter&buffer_share=3bc48
….still, I do like pointing out that appeals to history when it comes to predicting election results simply show that history isn’t really that good a guide..
Centre,
That was yesterday. And yesterday is gone!
GG @ 140
🙂
z,
Sawford certainly has a more reliable record than opinion polls months and years out from an election, though.