GhostWhoVotes reports the first Nielsen for the year has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (down five) and 47% for the Coalition (up four) – we’ll have to wait on the Greens. Even worse news for Julia Gillard on personal ratings, with Tony Abbott seizing a 49-45 lead as preferred prime minister compared with 50-40 to Gillard last time, and she trails Kevin Rudd 61% to 35%. However, the latter result is very similar to Abbott’s 58-35 deficit against Malcolm Turnbull. Opinion is divided on whether the parties should actually do anything about it: 52% support Labor changing leaders and 45% don’t (up four and down three), with eerily similar numbers for the Liberals (51% to 46%).
We also had overnight a Galaxy poll of 800 women voters concerning voting intention and attitudes to the leaders. The voting intention figures were 36% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, for a two-party preferred lead to the Coalition of 53-47 – about where you would expect it be when allowing for a 55-45 poll trend, the size of the gender gap in recent years and perhaps a smidgin of house bias in favour of the Coalition on Galaxy’s part. When respondents were asked if they were concerned about Abbott saying “‘no’ to everything”, his views on abortion and “the way he treats women”, abortion recorded the lowest response rate among Labor voters and the highest among Coalition voters (albeit by slight margins in each case). The divide was still wider for the question of whether was Abbott was a misogynist, breaking 44-24 for among Labor voters and 9-69 against among Coalition voters for a total of 25-44. Thirteen per cent of respondents said they were less likely to vote for Gillard because she was unmarried and has no children, and the same number said they were more likely to vote for Abbott for the opposite reasons.
UPDATE (18/2/2013): Essential Research breaks the freefall with the Coalition two-party lead back down to 54-46 after a week at 55-45, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition down one to 47% and the Greens steady on 9%. The poll also finds 56% approval and 22% disapproval for recent thought bubbles about development of northern Australia. Other questions relate drugs in sport, including the eye-opening finding that 52% would approve of a ban on sports betting.
What a silly argument.
4649
Geoff
Posted Friday, February 22, 2013 at 2:03 am | PERMALINK
Tony and the team are looking good at the moment. Will be a refreshing change the current dysfunctional mob.
You can feel the despair and desperation sinking in. You would think so considering the year after year denials of “plenty of time till the election”, ” Abbott will stuff up”, “Gilard will establish a narrative and all will be rosy”
Watching Labor implode is the best show on television
It is a very odd show. They are clawing at their own flesh. It’s a sad sight really. How a once great parties crumbles and rots.
I do not envy tony one bit tho. He has 5 years of waste and mismanagement to clean up. All the time the remnant of labor will be saying look he is bad when he has to make some toughs decisions.
Parties = Party ^
Damn auto correct
And the guns fell silent on the PB blog
I wonder what twists tomorrow will bring.
Sweet dreams.
Mr Low has been kicked off just about every board in Australia. W. Bow is, to his credit, giving him enough rope. but, note to everyone; Mr Low’s modus operandi is to hurl abuse and lies to provoke perceived “leftoids”. I suspect somewhere in his past a communist trod on his foot at a picket line and he’s been mad about it ever since, tarring anyone even slightly progressive with the same brush. There is no connected narrative or common sense in anything he says. I doubt he could run a chook raffle let alone a national economy.
Don’t go Geoff, I haven’t given you your lesson yet.
For fuck’s sake guys. iqsrlow started this bizarre fascism = leftism = ALP thing last night at like 1am. He continued boring people with it until roughly 4am when he decided he ought to crawl into his basement to get some sleep.
After sleeping all day he got up at around midnight and immediately logged on here to spout some more fatuous garbage ON THE EXACT SAME ‘TOPIC’ and will again cease to do so only when everyone else (who have jobs and lives) logs off to go to sleep.
On that note good night. Assume you’ll be getting the last word, buddy.;)
I bet he’s a pensioner from Bassendean
He could be “Frank from Nollamara” who rings 6PR
n
The reason for the big rises in oil/petrol prices is the failed US sanction policies against Iran
Iran survives ..selling less oil but at higher prices…while elsewhere petrol prices rise and rise…and cause huge problems in third world countries
Prof Cole .. Univ of Michigan explains
….
http://www.juancole.com/2013/02/gasoline-mysterious-blockade.html
Geoff
Posted Friday, February 22, 2013 at 2:03 am | PERMALINK
Tony and the team are looking good at the moment. Will be a refreshing change the current dysfunctional mob.
—————————————-
This is a joke right
The coalition is more dysfunctional
if it wasnt for news ltd protecting abbott
the coaliton would have used most of its front bench as opposition leaders since 2010
it will be the same after the 2013 election
the coalition will be going through opposition leaders as quickly
while labor after the 2013 election will be governing the country
under the leadership of Gillard
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Swanny gets down and dirty. Good stuff. More is required.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-02-22/swan-to-promise-rigorous-audit-of-election-policies/4532930
I hope my daughter doesn’t see this. She’s heading there for her honeymoon in four weeks’ time!
http://www.smh.com.au/world/it-looked-like-die-hard-three-killed-after-las-vegas-shootout-20130222-2euuq.html
I’m sick and tired of hearing about Western Sydney!
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/election-will-rest-on-how-west-is-won-20130221-2eua7.html
This is important and much needs to be made of the point.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/original-mining-tax-would-cost-billions-20130220-2erqk.html
For once I agree with Jeff Kennett.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/no-one-has-any-confidence-in-the-system-any-more-kennett-calls-for-cultural-change-at-the-top-20130222-2euuz.html
Michael McGuire is even more direct on the matter.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/michael-mcguire-a-lesson-in-humility-for-a-fumbling-afl/story-e6freacc-1226583020762
Come on ACCC. Get stuck into it!
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/supermarket-fuel-discounts-face-axe/story-fncz7kyc-1226583090367
MUST SEE!! A cracker form Alan Moir.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
And another.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
David Pope on the break up.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Ron Tandberg is not happy with the price of petrol.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
David Rowe has a beauty on the 24-hour news cycle.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
Iv’e done it again and exceeded the 10 link limit so we’ll do it in two sections. (Sorry William!)
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Swanny gets down and dirty. Good stuff. More is required.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-02-22/swan-to-promise-rigorous-audit-of-election-policies/4532930
I hope my daughter doesn’t see this. She’s heading there for her honeymoon in four weeks’ time!
http://www.smh.com.au/world/it-looked-like-die-hard-three-killed-after-las-vegas-shootout-20130222-2euuq.html
I’m sick and tired of hearing about Western Sydney!
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/election-will-rest-on-how-west-is-won-20130221-2eua7.html
This is important and much needs to be made of the point.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/original-mining-tax-would-cost-billions-20130220-2erqk.html
For once I agree with Jeff Kennett.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/no-one-has-any-confidence-in-the-system-any-more-kennett-calls-for-cultural-change-at-the-top-20130222-2euuz.html
Michael McGuire is even more direct on the matter.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/michael-mcguire-a-lesson-in-humility-for-a-fumbling-afl/story-e6freacc-1226583020762
Come on ACCC. Get stuck into it!
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/supermarket-fuel-discounts-face-axe/story-fncz7kyc-1226583090367
Dawn Patrol Section 2 . . .
MUST SEE!! A cracker form Alan Moir.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
And another.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
David Pope on the break up.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Ron Tandberg is not happy with the price of petrol.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
David Rowe has a beauty on the 24-hour news cycle.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
What’s this thing about Tories and pale blue ties? Just asking….
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9886314/Sketch-David-Cameron-v-the-BBC.html
And from the Land of the Free –
Some cartoons on the looming sequester.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/02/21/cartoons-of-the-day-sequester-looming/
The uber-dumb Steve Doocy of FoxNews.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/02/21/video-foxs-doocy-asks-is-al-jazeera-america-a-trojan-horse-for-terror/
Chris Matthews says it all about Repug tactics.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/02/20/video-republicans-are-using-in-this-country-the-same-old-cold-war-cia-tactics-to-destabilize-our-own-country/
The Repugs are a stinking pile of ordure!!
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/02/20/indiana-republicans-up-the-ante-forcing-women-to-have-two-vaginal-ultrasounds/
James Carville on the sequester.
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/scarce/james-carville-explains-republican-dilemma
You have to admit it – the Repugs are all class!
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/missouri-lawmaker-uses-assault-weapons-ban
More bad news for the Repugs.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/02/21/1188785/-Poll-Obama-approval-hits-3-year-high-GOP-viewed-less-favorably-now-than-under-Romney
This is potentially interesting.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017100419
Good Morning
Thanks again BK for another stirling morning roundup.
I do agree with Waleed Aly on the Labor Narrative article. However I think its more a matter of communication than having lost the narrative.
This because PMJG had to start governing from day one and had no chance to pursue a narrative from opposition which is the normal process of that gives an incoming government its “stamp”.
It would not hurt for PMJG to spend a little time doing narrative when the election campaign starts.
Peak Derp has been achieved. Graham Richardson has grown fat on the Murdoch coin, and has now had the call to piss on the party he once supported.
And he does.
[LOVE her or hate her, you would have to feel some sympathy for Julia Gillard. Virtually every policy she announces is bucketed and rejected by all and sundry.
Every press conference is dominated by questions about her leadership. Every poll result is another knife through her heart. The political judgments the Prime Minister makes are mostly rubbished by friend and foe alike. Good news is hard to find.
How she must dread the first few moments of the morning as she begins to focus. I can hear her barking at the first bloke the order not to turn on the radio or the television. No news is the best news she can get.
She knows Newspoll is coming early next week. It is a publication she dreads because she knows every member of her caucus is waiting for it. If the next Newspoll confirms the dreadful numbers produced by Nielsen, she knows her time in the top job may well be cruelly shortened – no pun intended! She has not lost the numbers to Kevin Rudd yet but the number of doubtfuls is growing by the minute.
The more her trusted cabinet ministers ring caucus members and senior party officials to assure them that there is no movement in caucus, and that all is well, the more the air of panic pervades the small world that is the caucus.
Politics is a brutal game and it is not for the faint-hearted. Gillard is as tough as they come, as tough as I have ever seen. That toughness is now being sorely tested and the turmoil in her head would be something to behold.
Looking to her cabinet for rock solid support would be a forlorn exercise. Ever since the debacle of the debate over whether or not to support Palestinians having observer status at UN, she has not been able to stop looking over her shoulder. Only two cabinet members were with her. One by one the rest told her of their dismay or even disgust at the stance she was taking.
Had she not backed off within seconds of the bells tolling for the midnight hour she would not have survived that December day.
Since then the announcement of the world’s longest election campaign didn’t help her cause. Then last week out of a clear blue sky she announces a billion dollar program to make Australian companies “consider” using Australian made goods. Yes, that’s right, consider. No compulsion, just lots of money to make business think about it. Since then a huge question mark has arisen over the method of funding for this cool billion.
The Greens have walked out on her as well. Christine Milne is showing all the signs of this becoming one of those infamously vicious divorces. Who knows what the Greens will choose to endorse when legislation is brought forward to the Senate. Already the aforementioned billion dollar program is under threat and a hostile Senate is the last thing a desperate PM trying to demonstrate stability really needs. It is hard to imagine the government was getting worse but that now appears to be a certainty.
None of the options available to the PM for her immediate future is particularly appealing to either her or for the party. Despite the stoic defiance that she exudes, somewhere in the darkest recess of her mind reality must have a place. There must be times when she considers just what will happen to the Labor Party if she clings to the leadership and the polls are proved to be right.
A loss of between of between 30 and 40 seats is on the cards, a slaughter of epic proportions. It would take Labor a decade to recover from that and given how much worse the situation is in NSW and Queensland, large chunks of the talent pool would go as well. The next generation of political Labor leaders, with the exception of Bill Shorten, would all be gone.
You would be entitled to wonder just how much the Labor Party can take. If a federal election produced a result anything like the NSW and Queensland state massacres morale would be at rock bottom, as would membership. Given that a budget must be prepared by May which must deliver $15 billion of cuts just to allow for the NDIS and the Gonski reforms, the political pain would be immense. There is a real chance that there won’t be much left of the modern Labor Party at the end of her reign.
She could of course run up a white flag, give Kevin a big hug and resign for the good of the party. Given her demeanour, character and reputation I just can’t see that happening. She could ditch the NDIS and Gonski legacy she has been determined to leave behind as a permanent reminder of her prime ministership. That would at least give Wayne Swan some chance of preparing a budget that won’t destroy a party he has served all his working life.
Most likely though, she will hang on and try to tough it out. With all those who hate Rudd clustered around her in praetorian guard formation, a confused, conflicted caucus might acquiesce to her survival. Numbers have been hard to come by for the Rudd team.
This would mean that the legacy Gillard leaves behind would be the near destruction of the modern Labor Party. That is how bad I believe Labor’s position has become. Some of the PM’s backers are among my closest friends and this column may well strain those relationships. It would be worth the price to see Labor back in the game, being taking seriously, and a force for good in Australian politics.
Graham Richardson hosts Richo on Sky News at 8pm on Wednesdays. ]
“@matwhi: Pope resigned after hearing of a web of corruption and gay sex in the Vatican. His unofficial statement: “you guys could have invited me :(””
@thomaswright08: Politico: Kerry “privately less enthusiastic about the pivot than Clinton” & rejected WH idea his 1st trip be to Asia http://t.co/T1zvBuOBtP
sprocket #4671 quoting Graham Richardson
This isn’t the same G. Richardson of NSW ALP Right Inc. infamy who’s up to his neck in it with Obeid, McDonald & co Shirley? Nah, can’t be, no-one who’s had that much to do with the NSW ALP Right that’s played such a significant role in the modern ALP’s undoing could have that much chutzpah…
“Peak derp” doesn’t even touch the sides, I’ve smelt less offensive things at the local sewerage plant.
@sortius: Turnbull’s charm won’t sell the Coalition #NBN http://t.co/D0EhqTDoif | not much love for @turnbullmalcolm’s uncosted non-existent policy
fractious
[This isn’t the same G. Richardson of NSW ALP Right Inc. infamy who’s up to his neck in it with Obeid, McDonald & co Shirley? Nah, can’t be, no-one who’s had that much to do with the NSW ALP Right that’s played such a significant role in the modern ALP’s undoing could have that much chutzpah…
“Peak derp” doesn’t even touch the sides, I’ve smelt less offensive things at the local sewerage plant.]
Can I post this comment elsewhere. You have encapsulated Richardson and all he stands for in a nutshell!!
fractious
You mean this Graham Richardson ?
[While the graphic photo of the bruised and bloodied face of left-wing Labor MP Peter Baldwin has remained etched in the public conscience…………
Meissner, an importer as well as one of Australia’s top-ranked poker players, claims it was “suggested to Tom (Domican) that Baldwin be fixed up and it developed from there”. Meissner claims that Domican organised two associates to do the bashing.
When asked who had suggested this to Domican, Meissner replied: “Who else, our good friend Graham (Richardson). Ask him.”]
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/lid-lifted-on-the-ugly-80s/2005/11/24/1132703316743.html
Try again
DPM Wayne Swan address on 24 now
Graham Richardson…
PM will be gone by May (2012)….
She’ll be gone by March (2013)…predicted just over a week ago
Today “Numbers have been hard to come by for the Rudd team.”
Why does Mr Credible bother? …
Grrrrrrrr
24 cuts into speech to go to Hockey response before speech finished.
iqsrlow@4579
So, who gave us the double digit trifecta again ?
victoria #4676
Help yourself
fractious@4674
I just hope ‘richo’ chokes on his 40 pieces of murdoch silver.
Bought and paid for.
Thanks fractious
Richo features prominently in this article.
[ ‘The issue of corruption threatens to bring down the Wran Government. (Right wing) party officers must bear the responsibility for the stench surrounding NSW Labor … the problem at hand is the Enmore conspiracy case.’]
-http://netk.net.au/Whitton/Worms26.asp
@brucehawker2010: “Let a Hundred Dams Fill; Let a Hundred Ideas Float Around”: Will Tony Abbott’s Big Policy Idea Sink Without a Trace? http://t.co/ZyqXTPc9po
The real consequences of the Greens tearing up their agreement with Labor are starting to emerge, with the Greens threatening to do what they vowed they wouldn’t – blackmail the government into amending one piece of legislation by holding up others..
[Julia Gillard’s signature Gonski school education package is the latest reform area to fall victim to the underperforming mining tax, with the Greens threatening to change a key element unless the tax is fixed.
Just days after tearing up the 2010 written agreement with Labor to form government, Greens leader Christine Milne will announce on Friday plans to amend the $6 billion Gonski enabling bill in the House of Representatives to ensure funding goes to the poorest schools first.]
I’m not going to object to more money going to poorer schools; I will object to an abuse of process, which sees a minor party in the Senate trying to dictate how money is raised.
And then there’s this…
[The surprise move follows another Greens’ move revealed exclusively in Fairfax Media on Thursday to join the Coalition to block a $1billion jobs and innovation package funded by cutting research and development tax breaks for the biggest companies, unless the Minerals Resource Rent Tax is toughened.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/greens-threat-to-gonski-package-20130221-2euom.html#ixzz2LZUopboD
It seems almost compulsory for “family values” moralists.
[I’ve got a love child, admits senator Pete Domenici who tried to get Bill Clinton impeached
……..former senator Pete Domenici, the very embodiment of family-values rectitude, in a steamy soap opera on Capitol Hill in which he sires a love-child with the 24-year-old daughter a Senate colleague]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/ive-got-a-love-child-admits-senator-pete-domenici-who-tried-to-get-bill-clinton-impeached-8505737.html
Gillard to Premiers:
[”If we see any other premier playing this kind of politics … there is a very clear message: we will go around you, we will deal direct with hospitals and local hospital networks, and we will rearrange your budget for you.
”We will rearrange state budgets by cutting them back in other areas. We are not going to allow state governments to play politics with health.”]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/fresh-gillard-threat-to-states-on-health-funding-20130221-2euds.html#ixzz2LZWm41He
FarQU
[Diogenes, did he get away with it all? Last time I lived in SA that was going on which is at least 6 or 7 years ago.]
He got off scot free apart from a small fine for leaving the scene of an accident. Rann was ropeable but couldn’t get him. The lawyers club wouldn’t do anything and Rau has wimped out from forcing them to investigate it.
poroti
How bloody unsurprisement!
I expect it will ruffle the feathers of a few here, but this article at Independent Australia explained a lot to me:
“The Rise of the Radical Right” (a 3-part essay by Dr Geoff Davies)
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/the-rise-of-the-radical-right/
On the basis described here, Menzies wouldn’t just have been booted from the Liberal party, but would probably be a member of the ALP ‘Left’, which is an amusing thing to contemplate.
I’ve just realised why the Pistorious circus seemed familiar. It’s a new version of Tom Sharpe’s ‘Riotous Assembly’.Kommandant van Heerden and Konstabel Els ride again.
Don’t forget Richo and McGurk and his alleged murderer Medich.
Well surprise surprise –
[ SOME of the nation’s wealthiest businessmen are concerned a corruption inquiry might make findings of serious misconduct against them, including possible allegations of criminal conduct, their barrister told a Sydney court.
Multimillionaire car dealer Neville Crichton and his eastern suburbs property developing mate Denis O’Neil are suing Cascade Coal directors and a raft of other people who have featured in a sensational corruption inquiry.
The pair invested in Cascade Coal in November 2010, later discovering their $13 million investment had ended up in the coffers of the family of Labor kingpin Eddie Obeid.
Cascade has been at the centre of an Independent Commission Against Corruption inquiry.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/businessmen-fear-worst-in-icac-inquiry-says-lawyer-20130221-2euaa.html#ixzz2LZaQHofg
]
Morning all.
[All election policies will be independently audited and published a month after elections, under a new plan to be announced by federal Treasurer Wayne Swan.
Under the plan, the impact of election policies on the budget bottom line would be made clear for the general public.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/16204390/budget-office-to-audit-all-policies-swan/
One month after the election is too late. Voters and the public need to know before the election.
Labor has lost the plot, and the narrative – http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/labor-has-lost-the-plot-and-the-narrative-20130221-2eua9.html#ixzz2LZYIHFBo … – well even Waleed Aly had to protect his ricebowl, hope it’s halal
dave:
I believe victoria did foreshadow that several business folk might get caught up in the Obeid matter.
The govt seems to be picking fights with the state Liberal govts. Here’s another eg.
[Federal Health Minister Tanya Plibersek says an incident where a woman was forced to deliver her own baby in a New South Wales hospital should never have happened.
The woman, identified only as Kristy, told Channel Nine that she had to give birth at Blacktown Hospital in western Sydney with no medical help, after being asked to leave the hospital’s birthing unit and being put in a ward bed.
She says her calls that her baby was coming were ignored and she gave birth in the bed.]
Maybe ru was right.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-02-22/hospital-under-fire-afterwoman-delivers-own-baby/4533430