Seat of the week: Makin

Labor enjoyed blowout majorities in traditionally marginal Adelaide seats at the 2010 election, but the Liberals are expressing optimism that what went up might be about to come down.

The north-eastern Adelaide seat of Makin extends from Pooraka near the city to Tea Tree Gully and Greenwith at the limits of the metropolitan area. Labor is especially strong in the areas nearer the city, from Walkley Heights north to Salibsury East, beyond which are generally newer suburbs with more mortgage payers and families, who have helped keep the Liberals competitive or better for most of the seat’s history. The redistribution has added around 6000 voters from Port Adelaide in the west, including a newly developed Liberal-leaning area around the University of South Australia campus at Mawson Lakes along with strongly Labor Salisbury further north. The combined effect has been to shave the Labor margin from 12.2% to 11.8%.

Makin is one of three seats which went from being Liberal seats in the final term of the Howard government to Labor seats with double-digit margins after the 2010 election, together with Kingston in the south of the city and Wakefield in its outer north. It was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 from an area that had mostly formed the southern end of safe Labor Bonython, the majority of which was in turn absorbed by Wakefield when it was abolished in 2004. Makin was held for Labor by uncomfortable margins from 1984 to 1996 by Peter Duncan, a former Attorney-General in Don Dunstan’s state government. A 4.8% swing put Duncan on the Keating government casualty list in 1996, and he returned to the headlines in 2007 after being charged with fraudulently obtaining government grants for his plastics recycling company.

Duncan’s Liberal successor was former nurse Trish Draper, who emerged as a prime ministerial favourite after strong performances at the next two elections. The swing against Draper at the 1998 election was just 0.2% compared with a statewide swing to Labor of 4.2%, and in 2001 she bettered her 1996 margin after picking up a swing of 3.0%. Draper went on to hit serious trouble in the lead-up to the 2004 election when it emerged she had taken a boyfriend on a study trip to Europe at taxpayers’ expense, in breach of rules limiting the benefit to spouses. She nonetheless survived by 0.9% at the 2004 election, despite suffering a swing which was not reflected in neighbouring seats. Draper retired at the 2007 election citing an illness in the family, before unsuccessfully attempting a comeback in the state seat of Newland at the March 2010 election.

Tony Zappia won Makin for Labor on his second attempt in 2007, and handsomely increased his margin to 12.2% in 2010. He had been the mayor of Salisbury since 1997, a councillor for many years beforehand, and at one time a weightlifting champion. Zappia was widely reckoned to have been victim of his own factional non-alignment when the Right’s Julie Woodman defeated him for preselection in 2001, and a repeat performance appeared on the cards when a factional deal ahead of the 2004 election reserved the seat for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left”. The arrangement displeased local branches as well as party hard-heads concerned that a crucial marginal seat should be contested by the most appealing candidate, and Premier Mike Rann prevailed upon Wortley’s backers to throw their weight behind Zappia.

The move appeared a dead end for Zappia in the short term, as he was unable to win the seat in 2004 whereas Wortley was elected from the Senate position she was offered as consolation. However, he performed considerably better with the electoral breeze at his back in 2007, demolishing the 0.9% Liberal margin with a swing of 8.6%. This was achieved in the face of a high-impact publicity campaign by Liberal candidate Bob Day, housing tycoon and national president of the Housing Industry Association who has since run for election with Family First.

The once non-aligned Zappia is now a member of the Left, and is believed to have backed Kevin Rudd during his February 2012 leadership challenge. His Liberal opponent is Sue Lawrie, who has variously run flower sales businesses and worked on the staff of various Liberal MPs. Lawrie has run several times at state level, most recently as an independent Liberal at the Port Adelaide by-election of February 2012.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,401 comments on “Seat of the week: Makin”

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  1. [What is this Zed character like?]

    From a marketing point of view, he is easier to sell than Gary Humphries.

    This latest story about Zed’s push for pre-selection probably explains one mystery. Before the ACT election in October last year, the ACT Liberals rented a shopfront for their campaign office in the Lanyon Marketplace, a shopping centre in far south Canberra. The shopfront windows were plastered with large posters of Zed and the other Liberal candidates for the ACT Brindabella electorate.

    After the election everything was removed except two extra large posters of Zed in the shopfront windows and the posters remain to this day. Today it doesn’t seem so strange why these posters have remained, as the shopfront could be used for Zed’s senate bid if in fact the Liberal Party continues to lease the shop until September.

    It does of course raise the question: was Zed considering all along to seek election to the Senate, or at least after he failed to become ACT Chief Minister?

  2. Grattan argues that the vitriolic politics comes from the fact of a hung parliament.

    Is she saying that a hung parliament with Nelson, or Turnbull or virtually any past conservo leader as LOTO would have been similarly and inevitably poisonous as this one, under Abbott.

    Don’t think so Ms G!!!!

  4. daretotread

    only a few months ago you were predicting a Federal wipe out in Queensland and the collapse of the world as we know it brought on by the carbon price.

    Pardon me if I don’t take your own predictive abilities very seriously.

  6. Abbotts post election victory IR plan is no doubt simply to amend this mornings legislation by deleting the letters ‘mis’ in the word misuse. Perfect IR.

  9. A woman killed in McKay, Qld. This is another victim who screamed loudly. We know that because people later reported hearing it. None of the lousy bahstards called the cops, though.

    Australians are turning into complete self-obsessed mongrels.

  11. Puff,

    We have one around here that the cops are only now investigating because she hasn’t been seen since. Little late now.

  13. [Player One
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 11:47 am | PERMALINK
    “@AustralianLabor: We want a brilliant graphic designer who can produce on & offline campaign materials. Email jointhefight@australianlabor.com.au for info.”

    A job for George Bludger?]

    I agree and DMed him with it he reckons he isn’t a professional, tried to convince him otherwise 😉

  14. Player one

    Just saw this tweet from George

    @Maybeee2011 @BarossaObserver @AustralianLabor appreciate the call-out, but I’m not a designer 🙂

  15. Labor and the Greens should add an amendment to Abbott’s latest mind-fart to also jail politicians and business directors who misuse funds. Then they should investigate Abbott’s use of taxpayer funds to promote his books and campaign on his lies about carbon pricing, and investigate taxpayer funds that may have been used to support Brough and Ashby in their conspiracy against Slipper.

    I hope Labor simply answers that the laws already allow jailing of those who are found to have behaved criminally in a way that deserves sentencing. what a stunt!

  16. The Government should accept the draft bill with a few small but germane amendments:

    (1) After the words ‘union officials’ insert the words ‘ministers, parliamentary secretaries or other parliamentary office holders’.

    (2) Insert the following clauses:

    (i) ‘accidents’ or ‘mistakes’ or ‘departmental errors’ or ‘clerical errors’ or ‘office staff errors’ are not a defence under this Act.

    (ii) Paying back monies at any time is a mandatory part of the penalty and is neither a defence under the Act and cannot be under any circumstances a mitigating consideration in sentencing for any offence under the Act.

    (3) A mandatory jail term is an automatic part of the sentence for any offence under this Act.

    (4) The possible penalty for any offence under the Act will always be greater than the threshold for automatically being expelled from parliament.

    These changes would have had a plethora of Howard/Costello government ministers and backbenchers in jail as well as being turfed out of parliament.

    Ironically, Reith would have amongst the most prominent to be drummed out of Parliament and in jail.

    Fair is only fair.

    We would not want Abbott running a protection racket.

  17. sustainable future

    [Labor and the Greens should add an amendment to Abbott’s latest mind-fart to also jail politicians and business directors who misuse funds]

    I was having the same thought

  20. [ Just saw this tweet from George

    @Maybeee2011 @BarossaObserver @AustralianLabor appreciate the call-out, but I’m not a designer ]

    C’mon George – you’d be better than any professional! You’d bring political commitment, innovation and humour. Re-engaging a jaded electorate has got to be worth a few percentage points to Labor!

  22. Nielsen

    Oct: 2PP 52/48 Libs PPM Gillard 50-40
    Nov: 2PP 53/47 Libs PPM Gillard 51-41
    Dec: 2PP 52/48 Libs PPM Gillard 50-40

    Any guesses for this one?

  23. Grattan hasn’t changed much.

    * Ruddstoration.

    * It’s “the media’s” fault that coverage is weak.

    * She’ll be covering the horse race

    and this:

    blockquote>This parliament has given crossbenchers in the House of Representatives the sort of power usually only accorded to crossbench senators. It is a matter of argument whether that is the system at its most democratic or its most dysfunctional.

    That’s right a parliament that has passed 450 bills without defeat, introduced tobacco reform, health reform, priced carbon, etc etc. and has been properly elected under our Constitution may be “dysfunctional”.

    You’re allowed to have as many cross bench Senators as you like, But a few in the lower house for a change are anathema.

    She doesn’t get it. The crowd at the Conversation are relatively intelligent and well-informed (I said relatively). So what do we get?

    Mother Hen teaching her readers how to suck eggs.

    I’d like to see what happens the first time she proposes that Climate Change is more of a political problem than a scientific one.

    One refreshing difference between her gig at The Age and her new one is that comments are open… and they’re mostly pretty scathing.

    http://theconversation.edu.au/a-fresh-start-to-an-important-political-year-12118

  24. Grattan hasn’t changed much.

    * Ruddstoration.

    * It’s “the media’s” fault that coverage is weak.

    * She’ll be covering the horse race

    and this:

    This parliament has given crossbenchers in the House of Representatives the sort of power usually only accorded to crossbench senators. It is a matter of argument whether that is the system at its most democratic or its most dysfunctional.

    That’s right a parliament that has passed 450 bills without defeat, introduced tobacco reform, health reform, priced carbon, etc etc. and has been properly elected under our Constitution may be “dysfunctional”.

    You’re allowed to have as many cross bench Senators as you like, But a few in the lower house for a change are anathema.

    She doesn’t get it. The crowd at the Conversation are relatively intelligent and well-informed (I said relatively). So what do we get?

    Mother Hen teaching her readers how to suck eggs.

    I’d like to see what happens the first time she proposes that Climate Change is more of a political problem than a scientific one.

    One refreshing difference between her gig at The Age and her new one is that comments are open… and they’re mostly pretty scathing.

    http://theconversation.edu.au/a-fresh-start-to-an-important-political-year-12118

  25. Tony Abbott has sponsored at least four bills in the current parliament before this one:

    Assisting the Victims of Overseas Terrorism Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 24 March 2011)

    Carbon Tax Plebiscite Bill 2011 (negatived in the HoR 15 September 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 22 August 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2011 (not proceeding as at 12 September 2011)

    You can get the details through http://tinyurl.com/am6pekq

  26. Tony Abbott has sponsored at least four bills in the current parliament before this one:

    Assisting the Victims of Overseas Terrorism Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 24 March 2011)

    Carbon Tax Plebiscite Bill 2011 (negatived in the HoR 15 September 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 22 August 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2011 (not proceeding as at 12 September 2011)

    You can get the details through http://tinyurl.com/am6pekq

  27. Tony Abbott has sponsored at least four bills in the current parliament before this one:

    Assisting the Victims of Overseas Terrorism Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 24 March 2011)

    Carbon Tax Plebiscite Bill 2011 (negatived in the HoR 15 September 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 22 August 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2011 (not proceeding as at 12 September 2011)

    You can get the details through http://tinyurl.com/am6pekq

  28. Tony Abbott has sponsored at least four bills in the current parliament before this one:

    Assisting the Victims of Overseas Terrorism Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 24 March 2011)

    Carbon Tax Plebiscite Bill 2011 (negatived in the HoR 15 September 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 22 August 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2011 (not proceeding as at 12 September 2011)

    You can get the details through http://tinyurl.com/am6pekq

  30. [Qanda
    Tonight’s Panel
    Chris Evans – Labor Senator for Western Australia
    George Brandis – Shadow Attorney General
    Corinne Grant – Comedian & Writer
    Rachel Botsman – Author & Social Innovator
    James Paterson – Editor of the IPA Review]

    typical on two counts – 1. the IPA get even more free airtime on ABC. They and other conservative lobbyists now get about 60-70% of guest spots on the various ABC chat shows.

    2. The most left-wing person on the panel will be a comedian. The ABC rarely gets guests from left-of-centre organisations to counter their unbalanced debates.

    this panel has at least two-far right loons (Brandis and the IPA hack), one right of centre (Evans), one sort-of-left-of-centre in that she thinks it’d be nice if we shared our consumption a bit (Botsman) and one loud- mouth lefty (Grant, who I like, but isn’t really putting forward a position). If you haven’t already signed it, please sign this: http://www.change.org/petitions/abc-australia-stop-the-bias-towards-the-institute-of-public-affairs-ipa?fb_action_ids=3753653020239&fb_action_types=change-org%3Arecruit&fb_ref=__GadsfIMEaL&fb_source=timeline_og&action_object_map=%7B%223753653020239%22%3A10150976111288250%7D&action_type_map=%7B%223753653020239%22%3A%22change-org%3Arecruit%22%7D&action_ref_map=%7B%223753653020239%22%3A%22__GadsfIMEaL%22%7D

  33. sf

    I have previously signed. On this occassion have sent a scathing tweet. Suggested they look to Amnesty International, Australian Conservation or the like which are hardly radical left wing. With Amnesty Philip Ruddock has been a member for years.

  38. There might not be a Nielsen tonight. When I saw ABC Breakfast news last Monday, and they had someone discussing “in the papers”, whoever it was mentioned Fairfax had pushed back their polling “a couple of weeks”. If that was from that weekend (although this was not 100% clear), could mean Nielsen will only be done next weekend which would co-incide with the next Newspoll.

    This would break their past usual pattern (sometimes broken) of avoiding Newspoll weekends, but I can’t think of another time it came out on a Tuesday. Its always been Mondays.

  39. Musrum… she said

    Tony Abbott has sponsored at least four bills in the current parliament before this one:

    Assisting the Victims of Overseas Terrorism Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 24 March 2011)

    Carbon Tax Plebiscite Bill 2011 (negatived in the HoR 15 September 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2010 (not proceeding as at 22 August 2011)

    Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2011 (not proceeding as at 12 September 2011)

    You can get the details through http://tinyurl.com/am6pekq

  40. “@PeterLewisEMC: Essential Report out soon – slight shift to Coalition in 2PP and questions on leadership and priority issues #auspol”

  45. TBLD

    Thanks.

    So the Carbon Tax Plebiscite was the only one they had the gonads to actually push to a vote.

    As I recall the cross benchers guaranteed only confidence to JG and reserved their right to pursue whatever policy they wished.

    So if Abbott had had but a miniscule of negotiation skills he could’ve worked with the cross benchers to put through whatever he wanted, so long as he could gain their cooperation.

    It was in his power to have the current parliament put through legislation emanting equally from both major parties.

    Watta waste of opportunity to nation build with bipartisanship.

    Watta waste of space Abbott is.

  47. @billshortenmp: How much more time does Tony Abbott spend thinking about persecuting union members rather than providing women more flexibility at work?

  50. [Leroy
    Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 12:32 pm | PERMALINK
    There might not be a Nielsen tonight. When I saw ABC Breakfast news last Monday, and they had someone discussing “in the papers”, whoever it was mentioned Fairfax had pushed back their polling “a couple of weeks”. If that was from that weekend (although this was not 100% clear), could mean Nielsen will only be done next weekend which would co-incide with the next Newspoll.

    This would break their past usual pattern (sometimes broken) of avoiding Newspoll weekends, but I can’t think of another time it came out on a Tuesday. Its always been Mondays.]

    Question is can they afford the polling now? Not surprised it wasn’t run as no ramp up in anti government rhetoric last week. What will run this week from Thursday on? :devil:

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