Seat of the week: Makin

Labor enjoyed blowout majorities in traditionally marginal Adelaide seats at the 2010 election, but the Liberals are expressing optimism that what went up might be about to come down.

The north-eastern Adelaide seat of Makin extends from Pooraka near the city to Tea Tree Gully and Greenwith at the limits of the metropolitan area. Labor is especially strong in the areas nearer the city, from Walkley Heights north to Salibsury East, beyond which are generally newer suburbs with more mortgage payers and families, who have helped keep the Liberals competitive or better for most of the seat’s history. The redistribution has added around 6000 voters from Port Adelaide in the west, including a newly developed Liberal-leaning area around the University of South Australia campus at Mawson Lakes along with strongly Labor Salisbury further north. The combined effect has been to shave the Labor margin from 12.2% to 11.8%.

Makin is one of three seats which went from being Liberal seats in the final term of the Howard government to Labor seats with double-digit margins after the 2010 election, together with Kingston in the south of the city and Wakefield in its outer north. It was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 from an area that had mostly formed the southern end of safe Labor Bonython, the majority of which was in turn absorbed by Wakefield when it was abolished in 2004. Makin was held for Labor by uncomfortable margins from 1984 to 1996 by Peter Duncan, a former Attorney-General in Don Dunstan’s state government. A 4.8% swing put Duncan on the Keating government casualty list in 1996, and he returned to the headlines in 2007 after being charged with fraudulently obtaining government grants for his plastics recycling company.

Duncan’s Liberal successor was former nurse Trish Draper, who emerged as a prime ministerial favourite after strong performances at the next two elections. The swing against Draper at the 1998 election was just 0.2% compared with a statewide swing to Labor of 4.2%, and in 2001 she bettered her 1996 margin after picking up a swing of 3.0%. Draper went on to hit serious trouble in the lead-up to the 2004 election when it emerged she had taken a boyfriend on a study trip to Europe at taxpayers’ expense, in breach of rules limiting the benefit to spouses. She nonetheless survived by 0.9% at the 2004 election, despite suffering a swing which was not reflected in neighbouring seats. Draper retired at the 2007 election citing an illness in the family, before unsuccessfully attempting a comeback in the state seat of Newland at the March 2010 election.

Tony Zappia won Makin for Labor on his second attempt in 2007, and handsomely increased his margin to 12.2% in 2010. He had been the mayor of Salisbury since 1997, a councillor for many years beforehand, and at one time a weightlifting champion. Zappia was widely reckoned to have been victim of his own factional non-alignment when the Right’s Julie Woodman defeated him for preselection in 2001, and a repeat performance appeared on the cards when a factional deal ahead of the 2004 election reserved the seat for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left”. The arrangement displeased local branches as well as party hard-heads concerned that a crucial marginal seat should be contested by the most appealing candidate, and Premier Mike Rann prevailed upon Wortley’s backers to throw their weight behind Zappia.

The move appeared a dead end for Zappia in the short term, as he was unable to win the seat in 2004 whereas Wortley was elected from the Senate position she was offered as consolation. However, he performed considerably better with the electoral breeze at his back in 2007, demolishing the 0.9% Liberal margin with a swing of 8.6%. This was achieved in the face of a high-impact publicity campaign by Liberal candidate Bob Day, housing tycoon and national president of the Housing Industry Association who has since run for election with Family First.

The once non-aligned Zappia is now a member of the Left, and is believed to have backed Kevin Rudd during his February 2012 leadership challenge. His Liberal opponent is Sue Lawrie, who has variously run flower sales businesses and worked on the staff of various Liberal MPs. Lawrie has run several times at state level, most recently as an independent Liberal at the Port Adelaide by-election of February 2012.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,401 comments on “Seat of the week: Makin”

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  1. Sen Birmingham is being a twat in Senate Estimates. He was questioning Mark Scott (ABC) about the balance on Radio National, over Summer. He quoted all the government guests. Conroy kept pointing out that Abbott would not appear. Conroy then asked , if Tony Abbott would agree to appear on 7.30 every week (or fortnight?) if asked. Conroy also pointed out that they had prevented Turnbull from appearing, and that if Turnbull got the chance he would appear any time he could.

  2. Boer, you won’t have to worry about the Hawks making the finals 🙂

    Agreed, Bilbo would be a good addition, and/or Poss. David Marr, too, but The Guardian must be careful not to be seen to be too ‘progressive’.

  3. [InstofPublicAffairs @TheIPA 55s
    Great news – @TheIPA’s @jameswpaterson will be appearing on @QandA tonight! ABC1, 9.35pm #qanda
    View details ·
    ]

    one of the panelists is ill, so the ABC have put an IPA shill on tonight. Outrageous.

    I for one, will not be watching, and urge a boycott of #qanda

  4. “@702sydney: Congrats to @gotye who has just won Best Alternative Music Album and Best Pop Duo/Group Performance w/@kimbramusic @TheGRAMMYs #Grammys”

  5. Qanda
    Tonight’s Panel
    Chris Evans – Labor Senator for Western Australia
    George Brandis – Shadow Attorney General
    Corinne Grant – Comedian & Writer
    Rachel Botsman – Author & Social Innovator
    James Paterson – Editor of the IPA Review

  6. Howard and Costello got two things right in their whole time in office – gun reform and creation of a largely independent reserve bank.

    Reserve Independence? That’s just another myth that somehow the Libs have managed to conjure up to make them look more credible than they are.

    The Reserve was always ‘independent’ of government in that it had a governor and board tasked with certain duties even going back to before the Reserve was split from the Commonwealth Bank. What most people today would call effective reserve bank independence in Monetary Policy was around from 93 when Bernie Fraser publicly set the 2-3% inflation target

    Indeed I believe every Treasurer from Howard to Costello claimed credit for creating an ‘independent Reserve Bank’.

  7. BW

    Hand out HTV cards at the footy final.

    The AEC won’t have any officers there and if its a sellout, they won’t be able to get in, unless they call the cops.

    Problem solvered.

  8. Do you think the way the ALP has polled under Gillard in the 12m leading up to the 2013 election is the same as how the LNP polled under Howard in the 12m leading up to the 2004 election

    Aside from KB’s analysis there is another reason why yours is somewhat dubious. We don’t have the “12m leading up to the 2013 election”.

    We know that Howard won the 2004 election and thus the polls got close leading up to the election. We don’t yet know what will happen at the 2013 election. If it is the case that the ALP win then you can guarantee that the same thing will happen – the polls will tighten up at least in the last couple of months with lots of neck and neck polls and probably some with the ALP ahead.

    As it is you are trying to compare two series with different properties – one which ends at an election and one which currently ends >6m out from an election.

  9. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1250


    Sen Birmingham is being a twat in Senate Estimates. He was questioning Mark Scott (ABC) about the balance on Radio National, over Summer. He quoted all the government guests. Conroy kept pointing out that Abbott would not appear. Conroy then asked , if Tony Abbott would agree to appear on 7.30 every week (or fortnight?) if asked. Conroy also pointed out that they had prevented Turnbull from appearing, and that if Turnbull got the chance he would appear any time he could.

    Its a tactic that works for the libs and they just keep chipping away claiming ABC bias. Its a slight variation of the tactics murdoch used on the BBC to get their operations wound back slightly – murdoch claimed the BBC were doing stuff he could do and it was unfair.

    The libs also used the tactic even when they were in power.

    Under the management of the libs appointees the ABC is little more than an imitation of the commercial FTA media and is of diminishing worth in my view anyway.

  10. MTBW@1276


    Abbott has just moved in Parliament a bill to jail Union Officials who misuse Union Funds – 11am news on 2UE.

    Yet another stunt.
    What next,a bill for politicians misusing public funds, a bill for every other occupation misusing funds?

    Surely it is well and truly covered by existing laws?

  11. Brandis comes across as a know-it-all born-to-rule… I think the more he appears the more it helps the cause in general. I place Kelly O’Dwyer, Sophie Mirabella and the Mussel’s from Brussels (love that name) in the same field. The more the merrier for mine.

  12. Some LNP clown in the senate is saying the gig miners are popping the corks because Labor’s pissweak tax isn’t costing them anything.

    If the ALP don’t comprehensively target this latest coalition hypocrisy they deserve to lose.

    Get Rudd out pronto ti king hit this shit before it takes hold like pink batts, school halls and border protection.

  13. [ Fairfax crisis as journos quit ]

    Victoria,

    Thanks for that. What a shambles.

    +++

    Listened to some of John Faine on ABC 774 this morning. It seems the Victorian Government is becoming nuttier by the hour.

    Apparently, the Melbourne Zoo was running a campaign called “Wipe for Wildlife”. Yep, this is about loo paper. Seems the zoo endorsed a particular brand of this essential product.

    A section of the forestry industry was miffed. The Victorian Government issued a decree to the zoo: Stop it.

    (Sorry. Details are a bit fuzzy. I heard this stuff before strong coffee.)

    Faine, on the verge of serious giggling, interviewed the “responsible” minister, whose name I promptly forgot.

    This hapless twerp prattled. Faine, at one point, said WTTE: This is like something out of “Yes, Minister” … doesn’t the Victorian Government have better things to do …

    So, the upshot. I would expect all avid poopers to contact the Melbourne Zoo for the name of the endorsed brand of dyke paper. This is big.

    Reclaim the dunny!

  14. In yesterday’s Sunday Terrorgraph a writer Jordan Baker did a two page advert on behalf of JBishop showing how wonderful she is.

    In the headline and in the body of the text he stated that she would be Deppity PM to Abbott.

    I emailed him asking him to correct the wrong impression this creates, hiding from the electorate that they would indeed have a very, very, really very classy Deppity PM. Mr Truzzzzz.

    I pointed out to Baker the breadth of esteem Truzzzzzzz holds throughout the electorate, ie virtually none.

    It is interesting that the conservos on PB who admit they don’t go too much on the idea of Abbott as PM never mention the class and competence of his backstop as leader of the nation……Deppity Truzzzzzzzz ie the nation would be in double trouble.

    Dog Albitey help us!

  15. [ “@lenoretaylor: Excited to be Guardian Australia’s new political editor. Leaving for new opportunities, not – as Oz claims – due to Fairfax management” ]

    Spoken like a true journo: Always cover your arse.

  16. [Newman Government guidelines for social media advise ministers to exercise caution on Facebook and Twitter]

    wouldn’t they need opposable thumbs to text? most of them should be safe then.

  17. I will still watch Qanda just to see Brandis come unstuck.

    Every time he appears he gets seriously laughed at by the audience once or twice as a result of self inflicted stupidity. Nobrains/plennyatalk.

  18. [Abbott has just moved in Parliament a bill to jail Union Officials who misuse Union Funds – 11am news on 2UE.]

    Abbott PM with Newman, Barney and Ted as premiers? God help the Union movement and workers rights. Be very aware Australia, it will be a loooong way back from these turkeys if they ever get all the keys.

  19. There’s already a law for union officials who misuse funds. It’s called the Crimes Act. Ask Craig Thomson.

    This is just another stunt.

  20. Grattan’s great analytical skills came to the fore in the first paragraph of her first Conversation article.

    She believes it will be a long time before we have another hung parliament.

    Clearly she’s an expert in probability as well as politics.

  21. burgey,
    He wants to get the ALP to vote against it so he can crow about ALP/Union buddiness in the election campaign.

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