Famously held by Gough Whitlam throughout a parliamentary career lasting from 1952 to 1978, the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa has been in Labor hands since 1931. However, it is now considered endangered for the first time in living memory after the margin was cut from 15.1% to 6.8% in 2010, followed by the devastating example of the state election the following March. The electorate in its current form covers suburbs clustered around the South Western Freeway and the Campbelltown rail line, from Macquarie Fields south to Ingleburn and Minto and north to Hoxton Park and Liverpool South, together with Liberal-voting semi-rural territory further to the west. The seat has been fundamentally altered a number of times since its creation at federation, at which time it covered Goulburn 200 kilometres to the south-west of Sydney. It was shifted eastwards to the Illawarra in 1934, when it commenced its life as a safe Labor seat, then moved northwards as far as the Sutherland Shire in 1949, and finally adopted its south-western Sydney orientation in 1955, when it covered Cabramatta and Liverpool. In remaining at Sydney’s outer edge since, it has tended to be pushed further south-westerwards over subsequent redistributions.
Labor’s Hubert Lazzarini followed his shifting electorate from 1919 until his death in 1952, except for a term after the 1931 election when it fell to the Country Party. Lazzarini was succeeded by Gough Whitlam, whose tale does not need reiterating here. John Kerin became member in 1978 when Whitlam quit in the wake of the 1977 election disaster, going on to serve a forgettable stint as Treasurer after the failure of Paul Keating’s first leadership challenge in June 1991. Kerin was followed in 1994 by the seat’s second Labor leader, Mark Latham. Although Labor’s hold on the seat was never endangered, Latham went through a wild ride in his time here in more ways than one: the seat swung 9.3% to the Liberals in 1996, 6.5% to Labor in 1998, and 4.8% to the Liberals in 2001. Latham was also disrupted when his strongest party branches were removed from the electorate in the redistribution before the 2001 election. His factional enemies, who were apparently not in short supply, argued he should instead be made to try his luck in marginal Macarthur.
Latham quit politics in January 2005 and was succeeded at a by-election by Chris Hayes, an official of the Right faction Australian Workers Union, who easily retained the seat in the absence of a Liberal candidate. Another round of Labor upheaval followed when the redistribution before the 2010 election effectively abolished the safe Labor inner Sydney seat of Reid (which survived in name but was effectively merged with neighbouring Lowe). Labor’s member for Reid was Laurie Ferguson, brother of Martin Ferguson, with whom he formed the base of a Left sub-faction that had counted Julia Gillard among its number. Ferguson was at first determined to be accommodated in Fowler, to be vacated at the election by Julia Irwin, but a deal was in force reserving the seat for the locally dominant Right. He instead settled for Werriwa under a deal Gillard was able to reach against opposition of Anthony Albanese and the Left, in which Hayes would take Fowler instead. That in turn froze out Ed Husic, national president of the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union, for whom Fowler had been earmarked, but he was accommodated in Chifley following Roger Price’s decision to retire.
The Liberal candidate for the coming election is Kent Johns, the Liberal mayor of Sutherland Shire, who was once a Labor mayor of Rockdale before becoming an independent. Johns reportedly won preselection with backing from factional moderate Scott Morrison. This has generated grumblings from locals aligned with the Right, who complain of having an outsider foisted upon them. Chief among the aggrieved is thwarted preselection hopeful Mark Koosache, a local school librarian and former soldier who has campaigned against cuts to entitlements for defence personnel, who says he is contemplating running as an independent and directing preferences to Labor. There has also been talk that Ferguson might bow out at the election, but he has told the local media his nomination forms have been submitted and he is set on serving another term.
Is team Labor putting trust in the NBN to return Labor to government, a program started by Kevin, the Team Gillard outcast lol.
Aus is not going to vote to save Labor on the NBN alone lol. Even my wife thinks Labor is goooone.
[I love how everyone is discussing Labor’s chances of retaining Werriwa.]
Are they?
Only you I think.
Mod Lib
So Newspoll was meant to be Monday using that theory?
By September the NBN will have had just enough rollout-momentum around the nation for the people who DON’T have it – which of course will be most of them – to be well aware that SOME of the people DO have it.
It’s basic human nature. U have it, I wanna have it.
The correct strategy for the guvmint is to do what every good advertiser does – hype it to the hilt. That shouldn’t really be hard. For once, the product sells itself.
Well the first two days of the longest campaign have been entertaining. Media in meltdown, PM lining up ducks and the opposition without much to say.
Dedalus
It is ironic that the msm is feral because of the NBN, and the punters cant wait to get it for themselves
I found this story quite amusing
[Police believe a spider may have been the cause of an explosion at a home in Kirribilli today.
Emergency services were called to the home in McDougall Street shortly after 1pm (Saturday 2 February 2013), after an explosion blew out the bathroom and kitchen windows and destroyed a washing machine.
A 66-year-old woman told police and fire fighters she’d seen a spider on her washing machine and sprayed it with an insecticide, however, it ran under the machine.
She sprayed more insecticide under the washing machine and fire investigators believe the engine ignited the spray, triggering the explosion. The washing machine was destroyed.
The homeowner was treated by NSW Ambulance Paramedics at the scene after sustaining singed hair and blurred vision.
There was no sign of the spider.]
Galaxy Sunday night Monday papers. Newspoll Monday night Tuesday papers. Pretty sure that is what ML meant and it’s generally what happens unless Newspoll decides to go early to match others.
…yes, but that is not as elegant!
When will it dawn on the fools of the media, (there are a few who aren’t) that the election is in Sept not in a few weeks?
There is no election campaign, the strange event of Parliament sitting may convince them, probably not.
Plus I guess no LNP member can retire next election without Opposition in shambles headlines?
Galaxy poll whenever they ‘feel the need’. I believe their website calls it ‘impact polling’.
Eg. Whenever something half-serious happens, employ us to give you a headline.
[Hugh Rimmington however, did not quite stick to the script by suggesting Tony Abbott was running a “protection racket” with all the dud front benchers he was gutless to do anything about.]
Well done Hugh!
[frednk
Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 8:22 pm | PERMALINK
Well the first two days of the longest campaign have been entertaining. Media in meltdown, PM lining up ducks and the opposition without much to say.]
I would laugh, but i the Team Gillard rocket left the reservation a long time ago on PB.
Another biggie going for labor is the foreknowledge of the election date.
Guess who’s going to be getting on the election rolls in droves this time around?
Correct. Those unorganized, unpoliticised first-time voters. The ones who normally turn up after the rolls have closed and say ‘duh’.
[Mumble has said he expects the SA polling to worsen for the feds the longer Labor remain in office in SA.]
Mumble has been barking this for a long time. I’m afraid I don’t agree with his alarmist view about the state of Labor in SA. I think SA will ultimately go with whatever the national swing is, give or take half a point.
[They need to find a leader in SA first. Anyone but MHS will probably win next week.]
Steven Marshall is running unopposed. He will probably win because he has the right formula for a winning LOTO, not because “baseball bats” or whatever other boring RW copy+paste cliche you want to use…
Fran Kelly and Michelle Grattan feed off each other. They both get excited over poor ALP polling and leadership speculation.
Paul Bongiorno was a massive improvement last week as he provided a sensible summary of the political situation and dismissed Fran’s leadership question.
I understand Michelle and Paul are sharing the RN breakfast
spot….perhaps this is for “balance”
The name Gillard etc. Psephos.
I was prompted to some research by someone’s comment at dinner last night that some Polish people he knows believe Julia, on looks alone, to be Jewish. Uncovering that apt meaning in course of same.
Naturally, this racist view does not incline them to vote for her.
Dio
[According to wiki, Peris isn’t married. She’s been divorced twice. She’s also a grandmother.]
Stick a scalpel in your own head and tell us what you ‘diagnose’.
Would ‘far right’ nut who is afraid to declare be too far?
Corey is your boy – live with it and stop squealing and prevaricating.
The problem with the Fran Kellys, Chris Uhlmanns etc is that they are covering politics as some sort of sporting contest where the result is ultimately unimportant to the future of the world.
While I don’t think they should be supporting one side or the other of politics, they should be assisting the public to know what the consequences of political choices will be by drawing out the paticipants in the political process.
If people then make a choice which disadvantages them, well fair enough I suppose.
Treating the whole thing as a sporting event is treating the consequences in the lives of people as mere sport – they are no better than the urgers in the Coliseum – they are are the ultimate cynics who have no respect for people.
David M
[Fran Kelly and Michelle Grattan feed off each other. They both get excited over poor ALP polling and leadership speculation.]
If you want to see Fran really excited tune in when the royal family is the topic being discussed.
Carey M:
Thanks. Always good to hear from a local SAer on the ground.
[David M
Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 8:29 pm | PERMALINK
Fran Kelly and Michelle Grattan feed off each other. They both get excited over poor ALP polling and leadership speculation.
Paul Bongiorno was a massive improvement last week as he provided a sensible summary of the political situation and dismissed Fran’s leadership question.
I understand Michelle and Paul are sharing the RN breakfast
spot….perhaps this is for “balance”]
Thay is correct, I asked RN and to their credit they replied quickly Paul was going to be permanent Tuesday and Thursday. Mind you they have replied to my suggestion they appoint the Fill in presenter while Fran was away, permanently 😉
Grattan’s true colours shone through when she was asked her opinion on Gillard’s election announcement.
‘Let’s look at next weekends opinion polling’
gloryconsequence 115 re Hugh Riminton “Liberal talking points”
I caught Riminton on the telly before 6pm tonight saying the reshuffle was sensible and bringing new younger people into the ministry. He then compared that to Tony Abbott who has said he will not reshuffle. Riminton quoted Abbott as saying he will stay with his team and they will all stay in their positions after they win in Sept. Riminton then pointed out this means Bronwyn Bishop will be 70 if/when the Libs win.
I thought that was rather good.
tricot has since said the same thing. (see how slow I am!)
I think the Jon Faine stuff proves ABC Management exert editorial control over News and Current Affairs.
But heck we did try to get Get Up to back a petition, but they wimped it and caved in to News Ltd pressure.
Maybe aluminium sheets from helium balloons around ABC transmitters may have an effect.
I don’t believe Labor is at any serious risk of losing Werriwa. The Labor margins in Reid, Werriwa and Fowler were all cut in 2010 by above-average swings, mainly (though not exclusively) because the geniuses who run the NSW ALP decided to shuffle three deadwood MPs (Murphy, Ferguson and Hayes) around following the redistribution, rather than making them all retire and preselecting some new candidates with some talent. Deadwood though he may be, Laurie is a likeable chap and does get out and meet his voters. The resentment at having him dumped on the seat in 2010 has probably faded now, so he’ll get some of that swing back. William’s swingometer is still showing a swing in NSW of only 2%. Laurie’s margin in 6.8%.
Phil Vee
Clip on YouTube I am referring to. Check it out.
Perhaps was an earlier edition? I know Ten do lunch and evening news. He may have changed tack for the evening bulletin.
gloryconsequence@173
Politics 101 FAIL. The correct answer is: “Let’s see who wins the election”
And this person gets paid to make comments on pltics?
Roxon has decided 6 years as minister is enough.
Will Bronwyn Bishop guarantee that she will serve 9 years?
So the “Captain” knew about the two resignations 12 months ago. So the “captain” dumped a senator in a senate seat being contested by local female Aborigine’s and implanted her own candidate!. Why not just let the local branch pick who they want and put Nova in one of the vacant positions and have two…..
Are we really to trust this spin from Labor HQ? i dont think so..
Gorilla:
Bronwyn Bishop just wants to do one year.
Excuse my rudeness. That should read Nicola Rocon
It’s mildly remarkable that the parliamentary careers of Phillip Ruddock, William McMahon and Billy Hughes form an overlapping sequence back to Federation. When Ruddock finally runs out of life-force there will be no sequence of three to do this.
CT
I was merely correcting the comments about Peris having a white husband.
No need to get so excited.
ruawake
[Maybe aluminium sheets from helium balloons around ABC transmitters may have an effect.]
I’m sure climate changes is crap fanboi Maurice Newman certainly did during his time as chairman.
rummel
Nova Peris lives in the NT, even the Libs would not select her for a WA vacancy.
Carey
I agree. I very much doubt any seats will change hands in SA.
State Labor isn’t unpopular, well any moreso than the Libs.
I think Mumble is wrong.
[Why not just let the local branch pick who they want …]
What local branch? She is standing as a Senator.
There was a very large truck convoy (and some motorcycles) in Canberra today. Unfortunately for Tony Abbott and Alan Jones it didn’t make a protest drive-by of Parliament house to protest about the carbon tax.
It was organised to raise money for a cancer support organisation. Truckies and many motorcycle riders are good at this sort of thing.
Martin B@183
Could they all be the same person? It would explain a few things about Ruddock!
[crikey whitey
Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 8:29 pm | Permalink
The name Gillard etc. Psephos.
..
Naturally, this racist view does not incline them to vote for her.]
Having red hair she is much more likely to be of Germanic and Celtic descent.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/gillards-reality-check-tough-and-correct-20130201-2dq7q.html
No wonder I am impressed by Ross Gittens
Dio – Prevaricating as usual.
When you get around to saying something about what you think instead of sniping people might respect. If you’re a totally disaffected Democrat I may understand.
Best night to you and yours, genuinely (GM Style).
[rummel
Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 8:27 pm | Permalink
..
I would laugh, but i the Team Gillard rocket left the reservation a long time ago on PB.]
And for that matter, the Liberal hacks haven’t had anything new to add. Old stuff, play it again Sam.
I believe Abbott has been suckered into keeping his front bench. God that mans a twit.
GG, FFS !!!!!
Re Evatt, surely you jest. Being AG and foreign minister at the same time qualifies just a bit I think. Plus stepping down from the High Court to do it. Makes people like Barwick look like total wa.kers really.
Fran Kelly seems Labor-biased to me.
CT
I believe you will find I said what I think at 187.
JW, Franco would seem Labor-biased to you.
john wright
[
Fran Kelly seems Labor-biased to me.]
Correct. DLP 😉
[I caught Riminton on the telly before 6pm tonight…]
Riminton had a segment on the TEN late news last Monday. It was announced that he would do the segment every Monday until the election. His first appearance was a sort of “idiot’s guide” to who’s who and what’s what in federal politics. He seemed fairly even handed.