Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research records next to no change on voting intention, and a general lack of sympathy for the view that unemployment benefits haven’t kept up over the years.

The latest weekly Essential Research result maintains the outfit’s record of consistency with the major parties unchanged on last week – the Coalition leads 48% to 36% on the primary vote and 54-46 on two-party preferred – and the Greens up a point from last week’s unusually poor result to 9%.

Whereas attitudinal questions often point to a social democratic bent among the population at large, questions posed this week on Newstart indicate that this particular buck stops with unemployment benefits. Fifty-three per cent agreed with the proposition that the current welfare system created a “culture of dependency”, with only 30% opting for the alternative proposition that current benefits are “the least a civilised society should provide”. In relation to Newstart benefits specifically, 33% said they were not high enough, 30% about right, and 25% too high. As Bernard Keane notes in Crikey today, variation by party support was not as pronounced as it often is in relation to such questions.

Further questions dealt with trust in various industries, with good rankings for agriculture (72%), tourism (68%) and manufacturing (56%) and poor ones for banking (33%), mining (32%), media (30%) and, tellingly, power companies (18%). Crikey will tomorrow publish Essential’s biannual “trust in media” results, which always makes for fun reading for critics of the fourth estate.

UPDATE (25/1/13): An automated phone poll for the Tasmanian seat of Bass, conducted by ReachTEL for the Launceston Examiner, has produced a dire result for Labor, with incumbent Geoff Lyons trailing Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic 60.3-39.7 on two-party preferred. The primary votes are 54.7% for Nikolic, 26.7% for Lyons and 8.7% for the Greens. The sample size for the poll is 543.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,884 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 76 of 78
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  1. [The Fairies at the bottom of the Garden are foundation Members of the Greens.]

    Arthur Conan Doyle was a big fan of the Fairies at the Bottom of the Garden, which was somewhat puzzling for the creator of Sherlock Holmes.

  2. ML you quote a 2006 poll?
    Desperate times I guess…

    As for the galaxy poll, pretty easy to make it look good for Howard, after all the labor vote was split 4 ways.
    Insert rolleyes.

  3. Mod Lib,

    Anyone who has used entendre as a pick up line gets their face slapped and is definately single thereafter.

  4. [Henry
    Posted Friday, January 25, 2013 at 11:36 pm | PERMALINK
    Actually I think of you when I think of Gollum ML.
    Why is that I wonder.]

    Because you think I am precious?

    😉

  5. I think it was only one percent wasn’t it Diogenes?
    Besides, Newspoll and Nielsen say otherwise on that point.
    I don’t really trust Galaxy, it seems very agenda driven.

  6. The Geek on twitter

    Getting confused signals from kinder gentler Punchy. Apparently he’s an IVF fridge providing #grogmonster who cries during Downtonw Abbey.
    10:44pm – 25 Jan 13

  7. Henry

    No. Amongst Labor voters, Gillard was rated the best PM by 11% and 23% rated Rudd best.

    The fact that only 11% of Labor voters rate Gillard best of that 5 show they are distinctly underwhelmed by her.

  8. [The fact that only 11% of Labor voters rate Gillard best of that 5 show they are distinctly underwhelmed by her.]

    No, you are completely wrong Dio.

    The PB intelligentsia think that Howard did badly as he was recent and Hawke and Keating were ages ago and so were disadvantaged.

    HOWEVER, Gillard is TOO RECENT (hehe :)) apparently and so she was disadvantaged.

    So the ALP leaders were disadvantaged and the Lib PM was advantaged…..so more media bias.

    Case closed.

  9. Brough is a bona fide liar

    Tweet by Jane Cattermole

    .@abcmarkscott Mal Brough said the reason he hadn’t given an interview about Rares judgement was that no one had asked! This news to you?

    And response by Jessica Wright

    @janecat60 I reckon I rang Mal 20 times. He has never responded to a single message since ashby yarn.

  10. Chas Freeman.. on the problems of the US policies in the Middle East…and the future
    _____________________
    A former diplomat and Ambassador to Saudi Arabia…Freeman was urged in 2009 to take the position of Chairman of the National Intelliugence Council in the US….but he was then was the subject of an intense attack from what he called”right-wing extremists linked to the Likud” and under this attack withdrew

    He was a most highly qualified candidate for a post close to the White House…but he didn’t please The Lobby.

    In a speech to a Conference in Washington this week he looks at the crisis of US Polices caused by contradictory policies given the long standing dominance of the Zionist lobby on US policies.,and suggesting that that day may be passing

    In view of the Hagel appointment by Obama it will be interesting to see if Freeman again seeks some major post in Washington in the future
    He is obviously close to Obama.
    His speech covers the crisis of US policy in the region

  11. [Mod Lib,
    No, they only think it lasts longer. It’s their Delusions of Grandeur syndrome.]

    So wrong Puff. Its Delusions of Adequacy.

  12. As I say Diogenes Newspoll and Nielsen say the exact opposite viz Rudd and Gillard. Ie Gillard trumps among labor voters.
    Galaxy as I say seems suss. Who owns it?

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  14. Diogs,

    I note you have changed your gravatar to a big hole and congratulate you posting to that dream.

    Seriously, out of context extrapolations make you look a genuine dill.

    A bullshit survey that tells you that people pine for the good old days.

    Big fuckingdeal

  15. Yes Diogenes (I want to abbreviate but the aphetic “Dio” is Italian for God and I’m not doing that)

    anyhoo…

    [The fact that only 11% of Labor voters rate Gillard best of that 5 show they are distinctly underwhelmed by her.]

    I’m no admirer of Gillard, but one suspects that ex-PMs are ceteris paribus, looked on more favourably than current PMs …

    Past PMs are less threatening. People’s memories dim, and of course, they aren’t as relevant since you aren’t voting for them.

    Rudd has the benefit of the News Ltd sympathy machine, which is cranked up to undermine the current leader for obvious reasons.

  16. However, as has been pointed out about ten times now, Gillard doesn’t have to beat Howard, or Hawke, or Keating, or Pitt the Younger. She only has to beat Abbott, who is the most despised opposition leader since, oooooh, let me guess, Dr 7%, Brendan Nelson.

  17. The reason for the post of the 2006 poll which showed Howard at 32% for Best PM ever is that it was at the end of his government.

    The poll at the end of the Gillard government shows that only 5% think she is the Best PM in the last 30yrs.

  18. The problem with a few of your analyses is that you are assuming that somebody who voted for Hawke, Keating or Rudd all disapprove of Gillard or rate her badly.

    I am not saying Gillard is popular or anything like that, just that this poll doesn’t mean anything. Sorry. It doesn’t. And cults of personality need to get over that too. Okay?

  19. Which MSM journo has the guts to challenge Brough for lying about their professional colleagues.. I have more faith in the work experience student from the Koo Wee Rup Times.

  20. [I’m no admirer of Gillard, but one suspects that ex-PMs are ceteris paribus, looked on more favourably than current PMs …]

    In the US, the current President always rates very well no matter who they are.

  21. Gosh Deblonay … couldn’t you have just posted the link with a sampler and suggested people support it?

    That was serious spam. Nothing personal, but I hope William snips it.

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