ReachTEL: 54-46 to LNP in Queensland

ReachTEL’s monthly survey of state voting intention in Queensland maintains the broadly stable picture since support for the LNP slumped in August, and finds nearly four times as many respondents thinking themselves worse off than better off under the Newman government.

The latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll of state voting intention in Queensland, encompassing 1064 respondents and with a margin of error of about 3%, gives Labor its best result on the primary vote since the series began in July: up 2.8% on last month to 34.9%. However, the Liberal National Party is also up slightly, from 41.9% to 42.5%, and by my reckoning of preference flows at the last election would lead by about 54-46 oon two-party preferred. The poll has Katter’s Australian Party on 10.5% and the Greens on 8.4%. Campbell Newman’s combined very good and good rating is little changed, down from 38.2% to 37.7%, while his very poor and poor rating is down from 51.0% to 48.1%. Annastacia Palaszczuk’s positive rating has faded from 27.9% to 24.4%, although her negative rating is also down slightly, from 29.5% to 28.3%. A lot more respondents thought themselves worse off (45.9%) than better off (11.9%) since the Newman government came to office, with 42.2% opting for about the same.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

17 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to LNP in Queensland”

  1. This looks like the vote beginning to stabilise, much closer for Labor than when the election was held, but still well short of being able to win govenment.

    I think the sentiment on people worse off under Newman is interesting. There is a significant opportunity for Labor in Qld to highlight where Campbell Newman is a cause of the hardship. I don’t know whether anyone left in parliament for Labor has the undersanding of economics to mount the argument, but it is not hard.

    Newman’s budget cuts have effectively put the State into recession. The problems for Labor were from the floods but Newman has no such excuse. The budget cuts were too fast, too steep, too ideologically drive, and based on false rhetoric. People who have lost their jobs are finding it hard to get new ones in the private sector, because the Qld domestic (non-coal) economy is shrinking.

    Newman referred to Qld being like Greece and Spain for debt, but that is nonsense. After counting financial assets Qld’s net debt is virtually zero. Gross debt is about one third of Spain’s in % terms, and far less than Greece; the comparisons are absurd.

  2. Socrates I think we are now in a more realistic position. Given all that has happened in QLD post the election it’s not hard to understand people are confused as that just reflect the governments performance.

  3. If indeed Labor has no-one left in parliament capable of mounting an economic argument, it could follow the Newman precedent: appoint a guru outside parliament.

    That is, preselect a qualified spokesperson for a seat you expect to win at the next election. This could be done for a range of shadow portfolios, generating publicity for candidates and easing the load of the parliamentary team.

  4. @Toorak Toff/2

    You say that Labor has no one left in parliament capable but look at what they have done so far, all you need to do is stay quiet and make sure your counterpart is the one making all the mistakes.

    Which is what they doing now.

    Btw: didn’t I suggest Rudd moons ago for qld premier? it was rejected even by the lib fans.

  5. Stabilizing yes, but Newman’s LNP will likely be in for another term regardless as there are just too many seats for Labor to pull back in one term. This bodes well for federal Labor in my view as they will be perceived as providing a safety net to the LNP’s extremism.

  6. @Toorak Toff/7

    The point that is Toorak is that you started with the answer with “IF”.

    In my view it’s too early to tell, that would be a correct answer at this time, and the focus should be on Newman being accountable for his actions.

    No amount of If statements is going correct the situation.

  7. It turns out that Campbell can’t do after all:
    [Frustration is rising in parts of flood-affected Queensland, over a lack of assistance to deal with the aftermath of the deluge.

    In Gayndah south-west of Bundaberg, many residents have been without power and waiting for help since Sunday.]

    I seem to recall asking a few months ago, as Newman cut Queensland’s public service to shreds, who would repair Queensland when it next flooded? I didn’t have to wait long.

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