Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research records next to no change on voting intention, and a general lack of sympathy for the view that unemployment benefits haven’t kept up over the years.

The latest weekly Essential Research result maintains the outfit’s record of consistency with the major parties unchanged on last week – the Coalition leads 48% to 36% on the primary vote and 54-46 on two-party preferred – and the Greens up a point from last week’s unusually poor result to 9%.

Whereas attitudinal questions often point to a social democratic bent among the population at large, questions posed this week on Newstart indicate that this particular buck stops with unemployment benefits. Fifty-three per cent agreed with the proposition that the current welfare system created a “culture of dependency”, with only 30% opting for the alternative proposition that current benefits are “the least a civilised society should provide”. In relation to Newstart benefits specifically, 33% said they were not high enough, 30% about right, and 25% too high. As Bernard Keane notes in Crikey today, variation by party support was not as pronounced as it often is in relation to such questions.

Further questions dealt with trust in various industries, with good rankings for agriculture (72%), tourism (68%) and manufacturing (56%) and poor ones for banking (33%), mining (32%), media (30%) and, tellingly, power companies (18%). Crikey will tomorrow publish Essential’s biannual “trust in media” results, which always makes for fun reading for critics of the fourth estate.

UPDATE (25/1/13): An automated phone poll for the Tasmanian seat of Bass, conducted by ReachTEL for the Launceston Examiner, has produced a dire result for Labor, with incumbent Geoff Lyons trailing Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic 60.3-39.7 on two-party preferred. The primary votes are 54.7% for Nikolic, 26.7% for Lyons and 8.7% for the Greens. The sample size for the poll is 543.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,884 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. I know someone who told me they would have voted for “W” in 2004 who is going out with someone who would definitely be a Democrat voter if they lived in the US (although I can’t honestly say I have asked her about her US voting intentions).

    I think this person is the only person I have ever met who would have voted for “W”…

  2. john wright

    In fairness, GG is a bipartisan insulter.

    He insults rusted on Labor people, too – when he disagrees with him (as do we all).

    Of course, he can’t help it if Liberals are more disagreeable.

  3. GG

    [The Fairies at the bottom of the Garden are foundation Members of the Greens.]

    Ah … so that’s where that joke was going.

    Righty-oh then …

  4. I would love to be able to snuggle up between James Carville and Mary Matalin in bed at night and listen to their pillow talk….

  5. Mod Lib

    I cannot begin to imagine being in a relationship with someone who was a conservative. Sure we could have a laugh at work or in some social setting, but to sleep with one?

    eeeww … that’s never going to work, surely? Imagine how you’d feel later. No loofah is getting that off.

  6. [I’ve been trying to tell you all that Rummel is a Lib.

    Once a Lib always a Lib.

    They never change.]

    lol. Im a Lib BB **SURPRISE**

    All i have done tonight is post about Gillard in a non heroic manar and you all get stroppy about it. You know there are lots of people who dont like Gillard out there in the real world. Talk about over reaction!.

  7. [You know there are lots of people who dont like Gillard out there in the real world. Talk about over reaction!.]

    Only 11% of ALP voters think Gillard is the best PM of the last 5, whereas 10% of ALP voters say Howard!

    …not a good result for the Gillardistas eh?

  8. GG

    No seriously, just before we had what sounded like an explosion from the direction of the by pass. But there has been no sirens, so obviously it is nothing that needed attention.

  9. GG no only that we have specific times each night for sex. Mine is 1am, 2am, 3am, 4am and 5am with a 15 minute break in between.

  10. GG no only that we have specific times each night for sex. Mine is 1am, 2am, 3am, 4am and 5am with a 15 minute break in between.

  11. Mod Lib …

    [What only seems longer Fran?]

    What conservatives claim they last longer at, obviously. When your worth is defined by a long past Golden Age, and the present is an offence, it’s little wonder the present seems long and painful and literally as well as figuratively pointless.

  12. I will take the Gillard just about everyone hates over the losers (no names) that just about everyone likes, any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

  13. [Only 11% of ALP voters think Gillard is the best PM of the last 5, whereas 10% of ALP voters say Howard!]

    I’m sure Gillard will be extremely disheartened to learn that if Howard, Hawke, Keating & Rudd all became leaders of other parties and contested the next election, she’d be crushed. It must keep her awake at night now, knowing how that horribly that scenario would end for her…

    At this rate, I’d bet she’d lose to Churchill and Lincoln too! 😛

  14. Rummel:

    The Fellowship would like to extend an invitation to you to join at the Hobbit level.

    It goes Hobbit, Dwarf, Man, Elf and then Wizard.

    The Fellowship has just awarded me Dwarf status and davidwh is at the Hobbit level.

    GG has just earned himself the status of a Goblin (it goes Goblin, Orc, Uruk-hai, Saruman and Sauron (:devil:)

  15. Mod Lib:

    [Oh, I thought you were referring to something else being longer….my mistake.]

    Double entendre just slides right by, doesn’t it?

    😉

  16. Mod Lib,

    You are clearly smoking and inhaling atm.

    This last hour seems to be about your lack of sex life.

    Do something about it!

  17. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Friday, January 25, 2013 at 11:29 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib,

    You are clearly smoking and inhaling atm.

    This last hour seems to be about your lack of sex life.

    Do something about it!]

    Dio might say this is the sound of one hand clapping 😀

  18. GG

    [The good thing about double entendres is that they only mean one thing]

    You’re confusing that with single entendre. It’s easy to do that. Are You Being Served, Allo! Allo!, Carry On {…} were all exponents of the genre. I think The Chaser boys did a parody of it.

    Double entendre must leave people guessing what is intended.

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