Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research records next to no change on voting intention, and a general lack of sympathy for the view that unemployment benefits haven’t kept up over the years.

The latest weekly Essential Research result maintains the outfit’s record of consistency with the major parties unchanged on last week – the Coalition leads 48% to 36% on the primary vote and 54-46 on two-party preferred – and the Greens up a point from last week’s unusually poor result to 9%.

Whereas attitudinal questions often point to a social democratic bent among the population at large, questions posed this week on Newstart indicate that this particular buck stops with unemployment benefits. Fifty-three per cent agreed with the proposition that the current welfare system created a “culture of dependency”, with only 30% opting for the alternative proposition that current benefits are “the least a civilised society should provide”. In relation to Newstart benefits specifically, 33% said they were not high enough, 30% about right, and 25% too high. As Bernard Keane notes in Crikey today, variation by party support was not as pronounced as it often is in relation to such questions.

Further questions dealt with trust in various industries, with good rankings for agriculture (72%), tourism (68%) and manufacturing (56%) and poor ones for banking (33%), mining (32%), media (30%) and, tellingly, power companies (18%). Crikey will tomorrow publish Essential’s biannual “trust in media” results, which always makes for fun reading for critics of the fourth estate.

UPDATE (25/1/13): An automated phone poll for the Tasmanian seat of Bass, conducted by ReachTEL for the Launceston Examiner, has produced a dire result for Labor, with incumbent Geoff Lyons trailing Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic 60.3-39.7 on two-party preferred. The primary votes are 54.7% for Nikolic, 26.7% for Lyons and 8.7% for the Greens. The sample size for the poll is 543.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,884 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. [However, as has been pointed out about ten times now, Gillard doesn’t have to beat Howard, or Hawke, or Keating, or Pitt the Younger. She only has to beat Abbott,]

    Abbott is the best thing that Labor has going for it, followed by Newman.

  2. [Carey Moore
    Posted Friday, January 25, 2013 at 11:55 pm | PERMALINK
    The problem with a few of your analyses is that you are assuming that somebody who voted for Hawke, Keating or Rudd all disapprove of Gillard or rate her badly.]

    …but the same applies for Howard. The non-Howard voters may well have respected him, but not thought he was the best PM ever.

    For the sitting PM to get 5% is bad.

    For the sitting PM to get the same rating AMONG ALP VOTERS as one of the most detested Lib PMs for ALP voters is bad.

  3. Diogs,

    I’ve said before the Ruddistas are the ones holding back the Government’s re election campaign.

    It’s a case of wheher they want to continue their games or live with a Liberal Government for the next ten years.

    It’s up to them.

  4. Julia should be Dirty Harry to a few more ALP hacks in the parliament, senator and HOR.
    My local member, John Murphy, is a good bloke and I live next door to him but by gee by jingo by crikey he is not the most inspiring bloke in the world. Bit of fresh blood would be nice in the seat. His opponent, whilst gormless, is a relative youngster.
    Noticed he had his shingles on a few lawns around the suburb last week. Interesting…

  5. Fran

    [G W Bush didn’t by 2007]

    His approval ratings sucked but a lot of wackos still rated him highly in best President ever surveys.

  6. I suspect the ones who are defending Gillard’s poor showing are the spinners here Carey:

    Gillard won 11% of the vote for best PM among ALP voters
    Howard won 35% of the vote for best PM among all voters!

    Howard was wiped out shortly after scoring 32% for Best PM in Australian history…..I wonder how the 5% bodes for Gillard?

  7. psphos,

    No, it’s a consequence.

    BTW and here’s some gratuitous advice, this Fellowship crap you go on with is likely to lead to you being banished from PB.

    I’ve only got history on my side.

  8. [Henry
    Posted Saturday, January 26, 2013 at 12:04 am | PERMALINK
    Head to head Dio, ie more relevant.
    Oh and ML Julia is still preferred pm over budgie boy]

    You mean like Keating was preferred pm over Howard in 1996 (just before he was trounced by Howard at the election)?

  9. GG

    [BTW and here’s some gratuitous advice, this Fellowship crap you go on with is likely to lead to you being banished from PB.]

    I remember Edward St John and I had a DeathWatch competition (choosing famous people who would die in the next year) which was banned.

  10. Diogenes

    [His approval ratings sucked but a lot of wackos still rated him highly in best President ever surveys.]

    I wonder how he’s have gone with Reagan and his father in the list…

    How would Dems have rated him v Clinton?

  11. [However, as has been pointed out about ten times now, Gillard doesn’t have to beat Howard, or Hawke, or Keating, or Pitt the Younger. She only has to beat Abbott, who is the most despised opposition leader since, oooooh, let me guess, Dr 7%, Brendan Nelson.]

    Yes.

    Meanwhile, is there any analysis of the PM’s national security announcements in OM?

    I get that party hacks here are less inclined to want to do policy substance, but I’d at least expect the press gallery (paid to report on these matters) would be all over the announcement the other day.

  12. [Ruddistas are a convenient scapegoat.]

    After the observed whiteanting behaviour of the Rudd Cult the last few years, that is an extraordinary comment.

  13. Diogs,

    Yes we’ve had our fill of rude, crude and disgusting over the years.

    These young uns don’t know how piss weak they are these days……..

    However, Mod Libs fantasy to insert themself into a marital couple’s bed to “listen to the patter”, is right up there imho.

  14. imacca:

    Thanks for the link, might be interesting, but I am a little worried about the little virus issue….don’t think I will download it.

  15. [Jessica Wright ‏@jesswrightstuff
    @janecat60 I reckon I rang Mal 20 times. He has never responded to a single message since ashby yarn.]

    Brough said he hadn’t been contacted by any journalists in the wake of Ashby.

    Lying seems to come naturally to Liberals.

  16. Mod Lib,

    Your fearless leader has been caught out on this isssue before.

    Do you really think politicians’ lying is a wiiner for the LIbs.

  17. Henry

    I can’t see how they could have asked it any differently.

    If they included Fraser and Whitlam, it would have been more interesting but wouldn’t have affected Gillard at all.

  18. I am not denying the facts at all

    Fact1: Gillard is preferred PM over Abbott.

    Fact 2: Keating was preferred PM over Howard (just before getting thrashed by Howard at the election.

    I take it you accept these facts too?

  19. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Saturday, January 26, 2013 at 12:20 am | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib,

    Your fearless leader has been caught out on this isssue before.

    Do you really think politicians’ lying is a wiiner for the LIbs.]

    Gillard being perceived as a liar is a huge winner for the Libs, yes.

  20. Diogenes@3777


    Henry

    No. Amongst Labor voters, Gillard was rated the best PM by 11% and 23% rated Rudd best.

    The fact that only 11% of Labor voters rate Gillard best of that 5 show they are distinctly underwhelmed by her.

    This is PB Diogenes. We are not reality based here. Do not use facts, it is most disconcerting. 😛

  21. [I take it you accept these facts too?]

    Who cares! You may as well ask whether Santa Claus or the tooth fairy are real, for all the meaning derived from that poll.

    Honestly Mod Lib, you are carrying on so.

  22. Mod Lib@3833


    imacca:

    Thanks for the link, might be interesting, but I am a little worried about the little virus issue….don’t think I will download it.

    I did, scanned with three different updated tools. No prob.

  23. Mod Lib,

    Howard was called a liar continually over his whole career and it did not stop him.

    The propagation of this myth by the Libs will not have any effect on the election result. It may sure up the vote of those who always vote Lib, it may get a few feversished acolytes their five minutes of fame and ir might keep the MSM busy for a couple of years with censorial coverage.

    However, won’t make a skerrick of differnece on the day.

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