Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll has opened its account for 2013 with an encouraging result for Labor, recording a primary vote six points higher than the previous poll of December 7-9.

The result of the first Newspoll for 2013 has been reported by AAP (your guess as to how that’s come about is as good as mine) and almost simultaneously by the ever-reliable James J, and it’s a relatively encouraging one for Labor who trail just 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 in the final poll of 2012. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, up six on last time, with the Coalition and the Greens both down two, to 44% and 9% respectively. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 49% while Tony Abbott is up one to 29% and down one to 58%. Gillard leads as preferred prime minister by 45-33, up from 43-34.

UPDATE (16/1/13): A Morgan face-to-face result covering both the previous two weekends (and presumably warranting more than the usual degree of caution on account of the holiday period) has the Coalition leading 51-49 when preferences are distributed as per the 2010 election result, and by 52-48 according to respondent allocation. The primary votes are 36.5% for Labor, 41.5% for the Coalition and 10.5% for the Greens. This follows what now looks an aberrant result in the final poll of last year, when Labor led 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences and 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated.

UPDATE (19/1/13): AAP reports a ReachTEL poll of 511 respondents conducted for the United Voice union in Wayne Swan’s Brisbane seat of Lilley suggests he is heading for defeat, trailing LNP candidate Rod McGarvie 45% to 38% on the primary vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,565 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 67 of 72
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  2. oh how fair & balance was my #MSM:

    15/05/2011 – Gillard is dead, politically dead – Peter Costello
    06/06/2011 – Gillard gone by December – Andrew Bolt
    01/09/2011 – Labor stalwart says Gillard ‘finished’ – Jeremy Thompson
    06/09/2011 – JULIA, resign. Let Rudd resume rightful role – PHILLIP ADAMS
    17/07/2011 – Gillard down for count – Phillip Coorey
    20/02/2012 – Gillard delusional and in retreat – Dennnis Shanahan
    21/02/2012 – Too late for Gillard to save herself – BY: NIKI SAVVA
    23/02/2012 – Assassins reap what they sowed – Simon Benson
    21/04/2012 – Gillard will be GORN by end of May, Hewson & Richo jointly on #Slynews
    30/04/2012 – Credibility gone, PM should fall on her sword , Michelle Grattan
    02/05/2012 – Julia’s going: it’s a matter of time – Dennis Shanahan
    18/05/2012 – Despite the poll and budget uptick, Gillard and Labor are doomed – Richo
    19/05/2012 – String of disasters mean the party’s over for Labor – Piers Akerman
    26/05/2012 – A leadership change to Kevin Rudd is the last real option – PvO
    28/05/2012 – Lame duck Labor likely to waddle on to term – Gerard Henderson
    25/07/2012 – Labor’s choice is Rudd or oblivion – PAUL KELLY
    12/06/2012 – Determined Gillard may be, but her leadership is looking terminal – Shanahan
    14/08/2012 – Pride comes before a fall for Gillard Government – Derryn Hinch
    23/08/2012 – Gillard in big trouble no matter what happens – Leo Shanahan
    12/09/2012 – Just like Howard, Abbott has the numbers that really count – JANET ALBRECHTSEN
    13/10/2012 – Misogyny tactic will backfire – PAUL KELLY
    13/10/2012 – Gillard’s hypocrisy stripped bare – CHRIS KENNY
    05/11/2012 – Hanging by a thread by Peter Hartcher
    24/11/2012 – Knives are out for Gillard – Peter Hartcher

  4. [J M
    Posted Saturday, January 19, 2013 at 8:16 am | PERMALINK
    Modlib – could you please show me one of those links?]

    I didn’t store those links as I didn’t realise how PB worked back then (some here call night day and day night and will claim they have never seen something you posted even when they can remember it very well, just as any form of attack….so these days I store important posts for future reference!!!)

    William also posted such evidence so he might have stored them, I don’t know…

  8. J M

    You realise the slipper /ashby is not a good look for the libs/lnp

    they are the only ones involved , they were found in a plot to get rid of an member of parliament , by dirty tactic

    Labor has nothign to do with the slipper /ashby case at all

    The only thing labor did do ,is get slipper out of the lib/s lnp

    Since he become an independent he has been found in doing no wrong

  9. [I have provided several links of several studies from several western countries showing that political journos are left leaners by about 2 to 1 but none of that matters.]
    Which is irrelevant to the Australian situation. Red herring anyone?

  10. 37/22 sounds too close, but regardless, a very comfortable win, and I get to see the pleasure of seeing Labor lose. Always been a joy throughout my life.

  11. It showed what kind of culture the libs/lnp were

    Slipper alleged wrong doings have only been when he was an member of the libs/lnp

  12. Gary

    Hi how have you been? Red herring indeed. Hopefully news of the Guardian setting up shop in Australia will give progressives a voice

  13. I doubt I’m the person at this place with the longest history posting on and reading posts on the internet, or even close. If you count usenet, I’ve been on for about 10 years.

    Last night, JM all but self-identified as a troll. (S)he asserted belief in things that (s)he could not believe, because they were radically at odds with observable reality or with having a practical grasp of concepts such as reason or logic. The conclusion is compelled in such cases that observable reality is a mistery to such folk (in which case they do not believe the things they are saying but merely fail to apprehend them) or that they don’t understand the meaning of the sentences they are posting (a variant of the last) or that they are lying with a purpose — to provoke or seek attention or derail the discussion of some group. JM’s statements about Bolt, Jones & Akerman are so outrageous, as to compel the view that JM is either completely deluded or bemused (no pun intended) or a witting troll.

    In my 10 years or so it became clear to me that there are two rules one should keep in mind about trolls

    #1 Trolls do not have beliefs.

    They may well have them away from the internet, but when they post they do not have opinions or beliefs. They post claims, or assertions, indulge in artifices and baiting, assert grief, anger, disappointment, high dudgeon about the tone and manner people have dealt with them, distinguish between the “polite and reasonable” and those said to be unreasonably aggressive. They sockpuppet and play the victim and say things like “you’re harming your cause” and “actually I agree with you about ‘X’ but won’t you just accept I can disagree about how you’re arguing?”. They pretend they want more evidence and when you supply it, they pretend you haven’t and then it’s Groundhog Day.

    which brings us to rule 2.

    #2 You cannot change the beliefs or behaviours of trolls.

    This really follows from #1. Before you can change someone’s belief, they have to have one. They must bring something they really believe to the discussion and their must be at least the possibility of a meeting of the minds. Trolls bring purpose but never “mind” to the internet. They have needs — for company or salience, or for salve of their anger and/or fear and sometimes, one suspects, they are simply paid shills or see themselves as footsoldiers in come culture war. The conduct of trolls on the climate change issue is an excellent example of this. Get them off climate and they will talk about the nanny state or guns or the UN and Agenda 21 — Larouche offers well rehearsed stuff to copy an paste — or “God” or DDT or anything that will stir up those who do come to sites like this for a rational discussion. Those who want a rational discussion should keep #2 in mind. When a mosquito “bites” you, it’s satisfying to scratch, but if you keep it up, you will come to regret it. Trolls are like the parasites of the blogosphere — best ignored.

    SO …
    #3 DNFTT

    I get it that some people enjoy venting at trolls. I know I have from time to time, and where I feel I can make a useful point for the group as a whole, I find it hard to resist the urge to do so, but really, disdain and contempt is the best of all responses, because you can always make your useful points to non-trolls — people who actually bring their minds to a discussion. If you simply treat trolls with contempt and disdain they will generally disappear since their needs are not being met. That’s one of the ways you can tell if they are mere trolls.

  15. You realise the slipper /ashby is not a good look for the libs/lnp

    they are the only ones involved , they were found in a plot to get rid of an member of parliament , by dirty tactic

    Labor has nothign to do with the slipper /ashby case at all

    The only thing labor did do ,is get slipper out of the lib/s lnp

    Since he become an independent he has been found in doing no wrong

    The judge did concede that it was very possible that Slipper did harass Ashby, and it’s going back for appeal.

    But that’s actually neither here nor there. Slipper goes to court on Feb 7 for the cab charge and rorting of entitlements controversy.

    Both sides of politics look bad, but especially Labor, because they made him Speaker.

  16. Abbott needs to give an explanation in parliament why did he know about slipper

    Why has he continued to called slipper a problem with nothing to back up his claim or why did Abbott not report slipper to the afp

    If Abbott or the libs/lnp had evidence of slipper doing the wrong thing

  18. J M

    Since slipper became and independent/speaker

    it vindicated the decision

    Because the Afp , found no evidence of slipper committing an wrong doing

    The coalition did not put up any evidence to suggest slipper , had done anything wrong, hence they wanted slipper to remain to as an libs/lnp

  19. Good thanks Victoria. I tend to just read PB these days but sometimes I’m prodded into action. JM says he/she isn’t trolling. Well JM you’re doing a bloody good impersonation of the art.

  20. The tragedy for Labor is that, had Slipper not been made Speaker by Labor, and had he been taken to court by none other than the police now, it would be a bad look for the Coalition, and Labor would have a field day. Now, however, after Labor made him Speaker, it’s a worse look for them, as recency is massive in politics.

    A spectacular own goal!

  21. J M
    Posted Saturday, January 19, 2013 at 8:26 am | Permalink

    Slipper goes to court on Feb 7 for the cab charge and rorting of entitlements controversy.

    ————————\

    Yes guess who his leader was in 2010

  24. No Jm

    The libeals/Lnp

    have alot to answer

    Abbott was his leader , when he sent those texts , and the alleged carcharges

    nothing to do wiht labor

  27. The federal police, Bob, and you are deluding yourself if you think this doesn’t reflect badly on Labor. They have him the highest position in the Federal Parliament.

  30. J M @# 3270
    ”Ratsars – is there any proof?”

    Proof of what?

    It is also the practice that to accuse anyone of wrongdoing one must be able to demonstrate, to prove that wrongdoing. Simple accusations are not enough. One does not have to demonstrate ones innocence but the accuser has to prove wrongdoing.

    Please list the lies you believe Gillard has uttered but make sure that you define what a lie is first.

    Being wrong is not a lie.
    A broken promise is not a lie.
    Changing one’s mind is not a lie

  31. Actually, make that 39 to LNP and 20 to ALP and others

    I was just looking at the ket seats on Antony’s site not all the seats. Still for 59-41 a 19 seat majority aint that massive.

  32. Who knows, Bob? Regardless, a great own goal by Labor. No one even knew who he was until LABOR made him Speaker. Those texts he sent to Ashby offended me, as a woman. They were degrading, sexist and despicable, and believe me, it takes a lot to offend me.

  33. The facts are

    The Ashby scandal backfired on the libs/lnp

    The libs/lnp

    Exposed in an plot

    Exposed that slipper was not found in any wrong doing when he was an independent

    But he was found of alleged wrong doings , under the current leader of the liberals

    Nothing at all linked to labor

  34. victoria
    ”I mentioned this before xmas, but Jon Faine read out a transcript of Blewitt’s sister talking on Perth radio in August I believe. It was whilst JBishop was being interviewed about the matter. The sister warned JBishop off her brother then, but what did the imbecile JBishop do? Meet with him. For goodness sake!!!

    One can understand this sort of behavior by Bishop. She is in the business of painting the Government in as bad a light as possible.. It is how one uses this information that is the issue and in the case of Bishop she has been found wanting for the simple reason that she has been unable to substantiate any of her claims.

  35. JM

    a little secret between us:
    I don’t think that they get that the very fact that they are defending Thomson and Slipper and arguing that it is not a carbon tax etc etc is what helps the LNP.

    Don’t spoil it by giving them the opportunity to see this for themselves….just let them continue

  37. It is also the practice that to accuse anyone of wrongdoing one must be able to demonstrate, to prove that wrongdoing. Simple accusations are not enough. One does not have to demonstrate ones innocence but the accuser has to prove wrongdoing.

    Please list the lies you believe Gillard has uttered but make sure that you define what a lie is first.

    Being wrong is not a lie.
    A broken promise is not a lie.
    Changing one’s mind is not a lie

    Any proof that what Blewitt’s sister said about him is true?

    Don’t get me wrong, the man looks like he has done some dodgy things in the past, but also looks like he’s now trying to make up for them. This ‘imbecile’ was also friends with Gillard for 4 years.

    As for the second part, I already told you what her lies were. You playing semantics doesn’t change that. Tell me how any of those things were not lies?

  38. [Gary – he actually wasn’t in the ALP, but they did make him Speaker.]
    Which the average person will have already forgotten but they’ll remember he was in the LNP.
    Besides it says it all that now Abbott is saying he’ll fight the next election on the economy. It’s the economy stupid.

  39. Although I think Labor can win federally, I’m always perplexed by those who gloat over election results.

    Of course I liked it a couple of years ago when Labor was in power everywhere. But I didn’t expect it to last, and I didn’t take it as proof of anything one way or another when it didn’t.

    We don’t live in a one party state, and that’s a good thing. Which means that power shifts from one party to another on a regular basis, which is also a good thing.

    So I might feel comfortable when my party is in power but I don’t see it as a reason to gloat. I know it’s not going to last, just as I know that (eventually) the Libs will be voted out as well.

    What I’m interested in is how parties use the power they have. You can do a lot of good work from Opposition, and you can do a lot of damage in government.

    I’d rather see Labor losing power because they supported good policies which were aimed at building a better Australia, then win power because they played games with the electorate.

    If Labor loses federally, I’ll be disappointed, obviously. But (though I’m obviously partisan) it will be because good progressive policies will be replaced by junk (which even ModLib recognises).

    I won’t be taking it as a personal affront.

    And, if we win, I won’t be gloating. I’ll just be relieved that a party with no real policy agenda and no vision for the future isn’t in office.

  40. Bob, you again miss the point entirely. Rightly or wrongly, most people associate Slipper with Labor, not the Coalition. No one knew he was until Labor made him Speaker.

  41. J M
    Posted Saturday, January 19, 2013 at 8:38 am | Permalink

    Those texts he sent to Ashby offended me, as a woman. They were degrading, sexist and despicable, and believe me, it takes a lot to offend me.

    ————————————————

    Did his leader Abbott knew about those tests, if so why didnt Abbott do anything

  44. Agreed Modlib, my biggest hope is that the Coalition makes as much mileage out of the AWU, Thomson and Slipper in the next few weeks as possible. What a few lovely gifts Labor has given them there.

    Off to mil the cows and get some sleep. See you all later.

  47. [Bob, you again miss the point entirely. Rightly or wrongly, most people associate Slipper with Labor, not the Coalition. No one knew he was until Labor made him Speaker]
    Can’t you supply any research which backs up this theory?

  50. [Tony Abbott “I’m not going to stoop to nasty personal attacks”]

    Oh really, no personal attacks:

    1. Juliar – Burn Bob Browns Bitch
    2. Ditch the Witch
    3. Gillard ought to be ”put in a chaff bag” and dumped at sea – Alan Jones
    4. PM & Albo: ”walking around with targets on their foreheads” – Tony Abbott
    5. “Their baseball bats aren’t there for Anna Bligh, they’re there for this Prime Minister” – Tony Abbott
    6. ”They ought to be kicking her (PM) to death” – Grahame Morris
    7. “I mean anyone who chooses to remain deliberately barren” Senator Bill Heffernan.
    8. “Gillard is dead,” Peter Costello told Network Ten.
    9. “She has chosen not to be a parent… she is very much a one-dimensional person – George Brandis
    10. “She wont lie down and die” – Tony Abbott
    11. “She should be fed to the shark – NLP
    12. ” Now to be minced at the abattoir like an old cow – David Farley
    13. PM Julia Gillard’s father died of shame over his daughter’s “lies” – Alan Jones
    14. “A government which should have already died of shame.” – Tony abbott
    15. “lack of experience within the Government of raising children – Tony Abbott
    16. “Are you suggesting to me that when it comes from Julia, ‘No’ doesn’t mean ‘No’?” – Tony Abbott
    17. “If the Prime Minister wants to, politically speaking, make an honest woman of herself…” – Tony Abbott
    18. Authorise his Deputy Julie Bishop to SMEAR PM based on “evidence” by a self confess fraudster, bagman & sleazy sex-predator tourist whose sister has called him “rotten to the core”
    19. PM Gillard will be grilled – says Abbott,
    20. “What a bloody pity the Taliban don’t have a single sniper worth his shekels” – Mike Smith
    21. Openly accused of PM of “criminal wrong doing” without proofs – Abbott, Bishop, Brandis, Pyne

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