Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research opens its account for 2013 much as it finished in 2012.

The first Essential Research poll for the year – indeed, the first poll full stop – has the Coalition leading Labor 54-46, a marginally better result for Labor than the 55-45 on which they closed their account in 2012. However, the primary votes are all unchanged on last time: 48% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 8% for the Greens. This survey also features Essential’s monthly measures of personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard up four points on approval to 41% and down four on disapproval to 49%; Tony Abbott steady on 33% and up one to 57%; and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister nudging from 43-34 to 42-33. Whereas Essential surveys are normally a two-week rolling average of about 1000 respondents for each week, this poll is just from the 1014 respondents in the January 9-13 survey period.

Entertainingly, the poll also takes the opportunity of the Queensland government recent effort to liven up the silly season by gauging opinion on electoral reform, with results well in line with other such polling in the past. Support for voluntary voting is at 40% with 49% opposed. Fifty-eight per cent say they would definitely vote if it were not compulsory against 25% for probably, 9% for probably not and 4% for definitely not. Only 13% support the lowering of the voting age to 16, with 78% opposed. The poll also finds first-past-the-post is the favoured electoral system, but only if opposition is allowed to split two ways, in classic first-past-the-post style. Preferential systems are favoured to first-past-the-post 48% to 44%, but that includes 22% support for the existing full preferential system and 26% for optional preferential, such as operates at New South Wales and Queensland state elections and was advocated by Bronwyn Bishop last week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

375 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. mexicanbeemer

    [Which coat Malcolm Turncoat, or wastecoat?]
    It appears to be another classic example of RW ranters inability to spell. 😆

  4. BK 251 Your conscience is always clear BK , comes with clean living just like Pruneface and me 🙂 Will look forward to tomorrow morning round up!

  5. JM
    You say that Julia Guillard id the most hated PM ever. That is your opinion, but where is your evidence?
    Moreover, if you follow polls at all, you will note a steadily improving net sat rating for the PM while Abbott’s is pretty much stuck where it’s been for a considerable period of time.

  7. Just reading some of the leadership qualities responses in the poll. I am going to hypothesise that, except maybe in a honeymoon period, leaders tend to never do well on the “out of touch with ordinary people”, “trustworthy” and “More honest…”, on account of people’s natural cynicism towards politicians…

  8. On the debt…not that it is so big, but it has been highly responsible policy. It has helped protect demand and employment during a phase of private sector credit contraction, and has supported employment, incomes and growth. It is text book economics rather than the ideological make-believe “policies” of the right.

  9. I’m sure this story would have been linked during the day but I feel compelled to have my say.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/gillards-bizarre-act-of-faith-leaves-vulnerable-unprotected-20130113-2cnf0.html
    If this ridiculous proposition gets up it will put the country back years and years. Effectively it will amplify the discriminations it is purporting to eliminate.
    I simply can’t believe it. I’m heartily sick and tired of bigotry hiding behind so called “rights”!

  10. deblonay

    [
    Is it bad spelling by RW or a ‘clever” play on words///waste not” waist “!]
    Nowt clever over at Menzies House let alone that article.

  11. [Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 2:39 pm | PERMALINK
    Just repeating my post in the old thread.
    From Essential
    Approval of Gillard has lifted four points to 41% in the last month — her best result in almost two years — while disapproval of her has fallen to 49%. She’s still in net disapproval territory, but in contemporary Australian politics those numbers aren’t bad.

    Where’s Mod Lib?]

    Fear not- just arrived!

    The last Newspoll approval figures were what I quoted.

    [sprocket_
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 2:36 pm | PERMALINK
    at least Morgan is going out and talking to real people.

    Essential is just polling online coalition bots, it would appear. eg Abbott’s disapproval of only 57% is 10-15% below all other published polls.]

    Bzzzzt. Wrong: sorry!

    The last Newspoll had his disapproval at 59 (just worse than Gillard at 52

  13. [If this ridiculous proposition gets up it will put the country back years and years. Effectively it will amplify the discriminations it is purporting to eliminate.
    I simply can’t believe it. I’m heartily sick and tired of bigotry hiding behind so called “rights”!]

    Well said!

    And having the power to discriminate and persecute isn’t a right, it’s a privilege. Nobody is inherently entitled to privileges.

  14. BK

    There is one thing the yanks have got right. If you take money from the government then you accept their laws. Discriminate all you like on your own money but if you get any Federal money then feck you if you want to discriminate. Should be the case here. Amazing that it is not so. Amazing ? Nah a bloody disgrace.

  16. briefly
    From back a bit – I try not to listen to Abbott but I do take notice of what he says. I’d rather read his musings than listen. For a start it’s quicker, no arrrrs and errr every third word. And I don’t have to look at that weird thing he does with his tongue.

  17. [266
    leone

    briefly
    From back a bit – I try not to listen to Abbott but I do take notice of what he says. I’d rather read his musings than listen. For a start it’s quicker, no arrrrs and errr every third word. And I don’t have to look at that weird thing he does with his tongue.]

    lol

  21. Poroti, CM and BK

    My thoughts exactly, if you accept government monies there is no way you should be able to discriminate in such a manner.

  22. poroti
    [Discriminate all you like on your own money but if you get any Federal money then feck you if you want to discriminate.]
    Well said.
    When the Australian govt (any persuasion) allows Scientology to be called a religion, we know that the lobbyists have far too much influence.

  23. Michael Harmer was supposed to seek leave to appeal the Slipper judgement today. He hasn’t. I wonder why? Having trouble coming up with a decent reason?

  24. I don’t admire Gough Whitlam, Psephos. Whitlam has the blood of the East Timorese on his hands.

    Plus who can forget his actions over the Baltic States and the South Vietnamese.

  27. [When the Australian govt (any persuasion) allows Scientology to be called a religion, we know that the lobbyists have far too much influence.]

    I am not a fan of Scientology but it does fit the definition of a religion.

  28. That Menzies House article was just weird. It’s merely the author projecting what he thinks happened and then recounting it as fact.

    There’s a few like that on that site – the recent one about JG’s communism is along the same lines.

  30. [Why is Mr Rudd talking outside his portfolio?]
    As he no longer has a portfolio to talk about there’s no reason for anyone to invite him onto The Drum or anything else. The Attention Deficit must be driving him nuts. So he has to tart himself around in the hope that someone, anyone, will invite him to do a spot somewhere. Soon, as more and more of his media contacts realise there’s no point talking to him he’ll be reduced to standing in for Big Ted on Playschool.

    Why talk about someone else’s portfolio?
    Because he’s desperate to get his mug in front of a camera, it must have been a whole few days since he last did that.
    Because he thinks he was and still could be the world’s best foreign minister and we can’t be allowed to forget that.
    He wants to remind us all that he was PM until That Woman did him in.
    He wants to draw attention away from PMJG lasting longer in the job than he did.
    He hopes that by continually promoting himself he’ll somehow be asked back as leader.
    And, in case all else fails, he’s doing job application appearances for that UN job he’s love to have.

  32. Michelle Rowatt 274: Read Jenny Hocking’s biography and you will find that Gough’s hands were clean in a murky situation.

  36. @BK

    Possibly, I typically lurk on sites and comment infrequently. I’m just useless at writing a sentence, changing my mind, deleting a sentence etc.

    I did forget to reply to poroti the other day, Xenopus are used for their oocytes (unfertilised eggs). The oocytes are relatively large for a single cell and make a lot of protein if you inject a gene into them. This is particularly useful in neuroscience research as the currents they elicit are easy to measure after you inject nicotinic receptors into them, for instance.

  39. BK

    [Enough, poroti, enough!!!]
    I took great note at the time of Howies playing footsies with the Exclusive Brethren because of what happened to my methodist (bad enough ) great aunt who had been stupid enough to marry into the Exclusive Brethren. She lamented about having to give up two of her great loves. Playing the piano and embroidary. But worse after ( eventually) leaving the sect she was shunned by the community and never saw her children again. They are an evil lot and Howie sucked up to them.
    This a review of a kiwi’s book of Howie’s fundyism love fest.

    [God under Howard: The rise of the religious right in Australia

    God Under Howard is a troubling expose of the unheralded, unholy marriage between religious fundamentalism and political expediency that has taken place in Canberra, a marriage that has justified and accelerated increased government intrusion in the lives of individuals while accelerating the pace of economic deregulation.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2005/02/23/1109046981178.html

  40. I have commented before that I think a positive for the government’s re-election is potential for a (modest) upswing in housing construction through this year (particularly help western Sydney tradie electorates).

    I just came across the population growth numbers from ABS (latest is June 12) which shows a very marked increase in the growth rate, to 1.6%, from a low of 1.1% in March 11. This should start to feed into this housing cycle story.

    (There is a little chart on page 6 of the link, and the numbers are on page 24)

    http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/A535F84F4393C62FCA257AD7000D113E/$File/31010_jun%202012.pdf

  41. [leone
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 8:00 pm | PERMALINK
    Michael Harmer was supposed to seek leave to appeal the Slipper judgement today. He hasn’t. I wonder why? Having trouble coming up with a decent reason?]

    Harmer did lodge today, according to the $550 per hour + GST man Anthony McCleland.

  42. As a voter for well over 60 years, it is frustrating to see bloggers so often shoot the messenger rather than face facts. If a poll does not agree with the blogger’s prejudice, it is faulty; if it does, hallelujah!

    Essential seems to be saying – and has been for a long time – that Gillard and Abbott are both hated but the more unpopular Abbott is on track for a handsome win. Morgan mzy be saying something else.

    We need a lot more evidence. Queensland offers a glimmer of hope for Labor but NSW looks dire. My heart is with Labor but my head says if probably ain’t going to happen.

  44. Toorak, I assume you’re referring to the commenters here, rather than William. William is a blogger, we’re just random riff raff :P.

  45. [Anthony J McClellan ‏@antmac9
    CORRO @antmac9: Michael Harmer’s Application 4 Leave 2 Appeal in #ashby #slipper case has been filed today in the Fed Court.
    Expand Reply Retweet Favorite]

    Have not seen this yet – hope his reasons are better than Ashby’s – which were basically “the Judge is wrong” with no argument as to why.

  46. NathanA

    [I’m just useless at writing a sentence, changing my mind, deleting a sentence etc.]
    Join the club 🙂 Ta muchly about the Xenopus info.Bottom line,keep on posting as the PB loungers are pretty good at working out what people mean. The PB lounge has a wide and varied pool of experts in a myriad of fields. You are another one. Heck ,as I have noted several times before, where else but PB can you get flame wars over anamorphic lenses 😆

  47. Harmer’s time to appeal is different from Ashby’s.

    Harmer does not have any order against him yet. This will change if the costs order which Slipper seeks against Harmer is made.

    An appeal can generally only be brought against orders not findings.

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