Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research opens its account for 2013 much as it finished in 2012.

The first Essential Research poll for the year – indeed, the first poll full stop – has the Coalition leading Labor 54-46, a marginally better result for Labor than the 55-45 on which they closed their account in 2012. However, the primary votes are all unchanged on last time: 48% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 8% for the Greens. This survey also features Essential’s monthly measures of personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard up four points on approval to 41% and down four on disapproval to 49%; Tony Abbott steady on 33% and up one to 57%; and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister nudging from 43-34 to 42-33. Whereas Essential surveys are normally a two-week rolling average of about 1000 respondents for each week, this poll is just from the 1014 respondents in the January 9-13 survey period.

Entertainingly, the poll also takes the opportunity of the Queensland government recent effort to liven up the silly season by gauging opinion on electoral reform, with results well in line with other such polling in the past. Support for voluntary voting is at 40% with 49% opposed. Fifty-eight per cent say they would definitely vote if it were not compulsory against 25% for probably, 9% for probably not and 4% for definitely not. Only 13% support the lowering of the voting age to 16, with 78% opposed. The poll also finds first-past-the-post is the favoured electoral system, but only if opposition is allowed to split two ways, in classic first-past-the-post style. Preferential systems are favoured to first-past-the-post 48% to 44%, but that includes 22% support for the existing full preferential system and 26% for optional preferential, such as operates at New South Wales and Queensland state elections and was advocated by Bronwyn Bishop last week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

375 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. JM because he struggles with the important issues such as consistent and coherant policies and is too quick to attack with little self control when he has gone too far. He changes his mind to suit his audience/circumstances. He has shown no willingness to look for a compromised position on important issues rather taking the contrary position for purely political advantage. He has not shown to me that he has the leadership skills necessary to be our PM.

    Having said that our PM has her faults as well so we are faced with a difficult choice come the next election assuming both current leaders retain their positions.

  2. ” Australians hate Gillard like no other PM has been hated.”

    JM
    Keep your over-simplistic generalisations to yourself, please.

  3. pedant @ 178

    [the requirement for you to express later preferences is nothing but a burden…]
    For the Senate, one can number one box

    I would imagine for most House seats, there would be fewer than 10 numbers to fill in.

    Does not seem too burdensome to me

  4. “@mariscontact: SOS from Fukushima! Acute lukemia patients are emerging! JPN gov. strangely stopped collecting leukemia statistics in Fukushima and Miyagi!”

  5. [162
    Geoff

    Meguire Bob
    Labor has formed a Government therefore they have responsibilities.

    To blame an opposition for a Government’s actions is a fallacy.

    Tony Abbot and the coalition are being a tough opposition and I am the first to put my hand up and say they have crossed the line on occasion. But to blame them for the current state of affairs hhmm….]

    Well, the logic is correct but the conclusions are wrongly stated.

    The LNP deserve no credit for any of the achievements of the Government. Io the contrary, they have stood in futile opposition to everything – on the NBN, on the carbon price, on NDIS and Gonski and education in general, on economic, budget and tax policies, on middle class welfare, defence, foreign policy, resource policy, health and immigration. In all these areas, the Government has been running a tight ship while the LNP have been trying to scuttle things.

    So you’re right. None of the credit belongs with Abbott and his bunch of sooks.

  6. My nominations for our least liked PM is a toss up between Fraser and Keating. Fraser because he left it to Hawke to do the hard yards on structural reform and should hang his head in shame because he did and Keating just because he is a really difficult person to like.

  7. [Mari Takenouchi ‏@mariscontact
    SOS from Fukushima! Acute lukemia patients are emerging! JPN gov. strangely stopped collecting leukemia statistics in Fukushima and Miyagi!]

  8. On the day that “Rudd’s time as PM eclipsed by Gillard”. Guess who pops up to do a “lool at moi, look at moi” like “when I called on Libya blah blah blah ….”

  9. The mating call of the “do not disturb my preconceived opinions, I do not want to deal with the facts” person.

    What if those opinions were conceived after a lot of observation? Then it’s really just an energy saving strategy :).

    I guess what we should ask JM what might signal to her that she doesn’t need to turn off the TV when JG comes on. There are, after all, plenty of things she might be paying attention to.

  10. I bet the real Bob Carr wishes he could say this –
    [Senator Bob Carr ‏@BobCarrFM
    I’m wondering why – wasn’t invited to appear on @ABCthedrum instead of has-been @KRuddMP. I’m the Foreign Minister after all.]

    And this –
    [Senator Bob Carr ‏@BobCarrFM
    Why don’t you mention atrocities by the Syrian Rebels?@KRuddMP]

  11. Pedant @ 199

    Continuing that train of thought, the Essential “Strongly Disapprove” trend of the leaders over 2012 caught my eye today:

    [Gillard: improving trend
    12 Mar 32%
    12 Jun 34%
    10 Sept 27%
    10 Dec 28%
    14 Jan 26%

    Abbott: stuck in a groove
    12 Mar 29%
    12 Jun 30%
    10 Sept 29%
    10 Dec 31%
    14 Jan 30%]

  12. Laocoon @ 204: You can number a single box for the Senate provided that you are prepared to accept one of a limited number of preference orderings as your vote. But if, for example, you want to vote for all the women candidates, you will have to number the lot. Regarding the House, two points can be made. First, plenty of voters have in fact found it too difficult to number all the squares: on this, see several recent threads on Antony Green’s blog. Secondly, even those voters who manage to get the numbering right might well be struck by the pointlessness of having to show preferences which are not going to be counted. It’s impossible for a candidate who polls more than one third of the formal vote to be excluded, so anyone who votes for a candidate certain to poll more than a third is being forced to engage in a pointless charade when marking later preferences.

  13. JM
    You can turn off the PM off if you like. Fair’s fair. I turn Abbott off every time he appears. I have no interest in the ravings of badly brought up, immature, self-centred, aggressive alpha males with over-inflated entitlement issues.

  14. @MolksTVTalk: The important story of the last massacre of Indigenous Australians, told by their descendents – #Coniston 9:30pm, @ABCTV. #MustWatch

  15. leone

    Bob Carr spoke on abc24 at 5.15pm. As usual he spoke really clearly and with authority while handling the constant questions about KR diplomatically.

  16. @Guytaur
    Why does it always come back to Tony Abbott for? He has not formed government. (unless all of Australia has missed something over the last 2-3 years)

    You say he is alway negative. What is this based on?
    Are you a 6pm new lite person? Or do you equally listen to speeches from the PM and the the opposition leader?
    Is it based on how pieces of legislation Tony Abbott has blocked in parliment? If so then you might as well call him Julia Gillard butt kisser for amount that has voted in the positive.

    “He has got no legislation passed. Not even blocked any.”

    He has not blocked any legislation? or he has not tabled any legislation to be blocked? I am not sure what you mean. Either way that is a very large Negative brush you have used.
    Is it Abbott that is Negative? or is it a smear campaign based his opposition of big ticket items?

  17. leone, I’ve become curious about TA. Partly I watch to see what role he will try out next. Partly I watch to see if he can remember his lines, or has formed an original thought at all. But mostly I watch because it’s free and will soon be over.

  18. Geoff

    Why is the liberal page stuck at 2010 , do they have any new policies?

    It shows what kind of a leader Abbott is , he doesnt believe in moving forward only backwards

  19. Davidwh:

    [My nominations for our least liked PM is a toss up between Fraser and Keating.]

    For me, Fraser was one — due largely to 1975 but also there was Jim Staples and Dollar Sweets …

    Howard would be the other. Much as I could not have imagined anyone worse than Fraser 30 years ago, Howard makes Fraser look respectable. Had it not been Fraser who had brought Howard into prominence the gulf would be even larger.

    Fraser, since losing in 1983, has acted in ways that have made him seem a lot less obnoxious and at times, perhaps even sympathetic.

  20. Geoff

    Minority Parliament. It is possible for LNP to combine with Cross Benches and submit own legislation against Labor vote

  21. @briefly
    I would really hate to see a leaky boat if after 5 years we have 150billion in debt. wow tight ship indeed.

    Also to your previous comment I know you were trolling but I would vote for a transgender Tony Abbott over Julia Gillard. Its not about gender sorry to squash that labor lie She is just doing a terrible job.

  22. only in Queensland?

    [Since the election of the Queensland LNP Newman Government on 24 March 2012 there has been a steady output of ideological revisionism aimed at bolstering the concept of monarchy in Queensland.

    These high tea warriors have:

    changed the Queensland government logo back to the Queensland Coat-of-Arms;
    named the new Supreme Court after the current British monarch;
    moved Labour Day public holiday from the historically traditional 1 May to the first Monday in October and returned the Queen’s Birthday Holiday to June;
    proposed changing Senior Counsel back to Queen’s Counsel (QC); and
    insisted Queensland pass individual legislation to ratify the royal succession change rather than a blanket federal approach.
    The hand behind these changes appears to be the Queensland LNP Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie, the second-term Member for Kawana who turns 31 on 25 January 2013.]

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/queensland-lnp-continues-to-spin-backwards/

  23. @Guytaur anything is possible but likely? no.

    If this was the case then we would have gone back to an election a long long time ago.

  24. The majority of legislation has always gone through Parliament with bi partisan support.

    I think it was Pyne who claimed that 85% of legislation under the current government had the support of both parties.

    It would be interesting to know what the figure was for past governments – my impression is that it’s usually much higher than that, at about 95% or so.

  25. Geoff

    See other past minority governments. Opposition has got legislation passed without fall of government.

    Its not going to happen because its Abbott. No trust.

  26. @Guytaur
    “Minority Parliament. It is possible for LNP to combine with Cross Benches and submit own legislation against Labor vote”

    Btw the Liberal party has table legislation that has been passed with the helped of labor. But this is not your criteria is it. It has to be labor against liberal+crossbenchers

  27. pedant
    [First, plenty of voters have in fact found it too difficult to number all the squares]
    Yes true enough. Exacerbated by the OPV here in NSW (i.e. different systems)

    (In fact, an older gentleman asked for my assistance on that very point in the booth at the last federal election; fortunately, he was voting the right way, so I faced no moral dilemma 😀 :evil:)

  28. Belated apologies to the Dawn Patrollers!
    When I got up very early this morning there was no internet connection. It was not restored until, I am told, about lunch time.
    So better luck tomorrow morning I say.

  29. Re Carr V Rudd on atrocities by Syrian Rebels..as raised by an earlier post
    ________________________

    This terrible story of the beheading of a Syrian Christian/Cathoic by Jihardist rebels in Syria is from Catholic nun.now speaking in Europe ….who like most of Syria’s large Christian community seems to be sticking with Assad,fearful of the El Quidea backed fundamentalist rebels
    But it is a terrible story I must warn you

    So Rudd may have a very good point which Carr sticking close to US policies as he does …seems to ignore !

    http://friendsofsyria.wordpress.com/2012/12/30/obama-backed-fsa-beheaded-christian-and-fed-him-to

  30. guytaur

    [See other past minority governments. Opposition has got legislation passed without fall of government.

    Its not going to happen because its Abbott. No trust]
    Good point. The oppo could have got a lot of things passed if they were willing to put forward positive positions. If the Indies supported them the gov would go along if only to save face.Unfortunately with the mad monk in charge NO was all they could say.

  31. [222
    Geoff

    @Guytaur
    Why does it always come back to Tony Abbott for? He has not formed government. (unless all of Australia has missed something over the last 2-3 years)

    You say he is alway negative. What is this based on?]

    This list is not exclusive – there’s Malice, Deceit and Denial. Then, there is Contempt. Rejection. Lies and False Accusations. Vengeance. Defamation.

    Should I go on?

    He is unfit for purpose and should be returned to the shop.

  32. Re Abbott and Menzies House
    _____________Abbott gained a big PLUS recently from M House…which a few days ago gave a terrrible critique of Turnbull …really gave him a pounding !
    He is not popilar with the far-right of the Libs ….
    Might be an adtvantage in a way for Turnbull

  33. @briefly
    Are we talking about Tony or Julia here?
    You just listed Julia Gillard’s crowning achievements while she has been in office.

  34. Turnbull slated and damned by Menzies House

    WOW what a belting by his Lib ”
    “allies “?
    __________________________http://www.menzieshouse.com.au/2013/01/which-coat-malcolm-turncoat-or-wastecoat.html

  35. Thanks BK for checking in we missed our Dawn Patrol round up this morning,I will let Pruneface know when I talk to him tonight he will be relieved 😉

  36. I don’t accept that Gillard is this countries most hated PM.

    If social media was around in the late 1980s early 1990s their would have been plenty of vile heaped at the Hawke/Keating Government.

    Howard copped a fair bit of hatred from the left and at times from within his own party referring you to famous phone call.

    I think the Conservative side has been very hostile towards the PM but that has largely being a result of the tone set by the Liberal Party leadership that has chosen as I suspect any opposition in the current parliament would have.

    Regardless of who ever won last time under the circumstances was going to have a hard time and to the PM credit she has grown in the role and whilst she has made several mistakes but over all is politically in better shape now than 12 months ago.

    I cannot recall a PM expect maybe Curtin that could claim to be popular across the political divide and amongst the general population.

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