The first Essential Research poll for the year – indeed, the first poll full stop – has the Coalition leading Labor 54-46, a marginally better result for Labor than the 55-45 on which they closed their account in 2012. However, the primary votes are all unchanged on last time: 48% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 8% for the Greens. This survey also features Essential’s monthly measures of personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard up four points on approval to 41% and down four on disapproval to 49%; Tony Abbott steady on 33% and up one to 57%; and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister nudging from 43-34 to 42-33. Whereas Essential surveys are normally a two-week rolling average of about 1000 respondents for each week, this poll is just from the 1014 respondents in the January 9-13 survey period.
Entertainingly, the poll also takes the opportunity of the Queensland government recent effort to liven up the silly season by gauging opinion on electoral reform, with results well in line with other such polling in the past. Support for voluntary voting is at 40% with 49% opposed. Fifty-eight per cent say they would definitely vote if it were not compulsory against 25% for probably, 9% for probably not and 4% for definitely not. Only 13% support the lowering of the voting age to 16, with 78% opposed. The poll also finds first-past-the-post is the favoured electoral system, but only if opposition is allowed to split two ways, in classic first-past-the-post style. Preferential systems are favoured to first-past-the-post 48% to 44%, but that includes 22% support for the existing full preferential system and 26% for optional preferential, such as operates at New South Wales and Queensland state elections and was advocated by Bronwyn Bishop last week.
Geoff
Feeling the heat hey? Maybe if Abbott did policy instead of No No No all the time. Or stunts all the time. Great meme on twitter for that.
Instead all you get from Abbott is negative. So that is what the public takes out. Negative Abbott.
lizzie, thanks, but this board does look RIDICULOUSLY Labor biased, whatever the percentage may be. I will respect other’s opinions as long as they respect mine.
“@ABCNews24: On #TheDrum with Tim Palmer – @MikeSeccombe from The Global Mail, NSW Greens MP @greencate, Julian Leeser from ACU and @KRuddMP 6pm AEDT”
J M @ 54
J M @ 153
My italics.
J M
Yes, definitely Labor biased, but we prefer to call ourselves “progressives” 😉
I’d like you to stay for a while. It might be interesting to have a “genuine National” on board.
DisplayName – I am not seeing any contradiction there. I am a Colaition supporter, and I had a go at Labor supporters grasping to approval ratings. What is your point?
[how can I load a photo onto a comment ]
Not so good for those of us watching downloads if the site is packed with photos.
Did anyone have the pleasure of seeing Graham Morris on SkyAgenda? A new year but the same old, same old, but Simon Banks managed to get a good response in to the rhetoric re bad government. Morris gets lots once facts are mentioned.
Let me be blunt. You’re a blatant hypocrite.
[lizzie, thanks, but this board does look RIDICULOUSLY Labor biased, whatever the percentage may be. I will respect other’s opinions as long as they respect mine.]
Well just remember, the majority doesn’t actually get to decide who stays and who goes. Only the guy who runs the board and, as far as I can tell, there are no actual rules about having to have any political beliefs here, so even if you are in the minority and shouted down, you’re within your right as this is a politics board, not a Left/ALP one.
Having said that, it doesn’t mean you will be exempt from disagreement 😛
Dave
Indeed. As I said before his favourable lasting legacies are few and far between
Geoff@143
The developed world are saying Australia already have ‘decent robust working policies’ and they would swap with us anytime.
abbott has no policies – apart from sacking people and reducing working conditions for everyone else.
Meguire Bob
Labor has formed a Government therefore they have responsibilities.
To blame an opposition for a Government’s actions is a fallacy.
Tony Abbot and the coalition are being a tough opposition and I am the first to put my hand up and say they have crossed the line on occasion. But to blame them for the current state of affairs hhmm….
[The Coalition will use a parliamentary vote to try to force Treasurer Wayne Swan to reveal what the minerals resource rent tax has collected as the Greens called for an immediate cap to state royalties and a broadening of the levy…]
http://afr.com/p/national/coalition_pressures_labor_on_mrrt_rSid4y6KXqx3N9ZiB4wzzM
Geoff
Abbott is a do nothing opposition. He has got no legislation passed. Not even blocked any.
He cannot convince anyone of his way so does not even try. Instead he tries no no no and stunts to look tough while being amongst the weakest Opposition leaders we have ever seen.
Pedant – yes, I am aware of the vote in the UK.
They at least were faced with a change to their system, and a (FUD) campaign against change, so I’m willing to allow them a little F/U/D.
A poll of Australians, who have lived with non-FPTP for many decades, and yet almost a majority have said FPTP is their preferred voting mechanism – ie presumably they would prefer change from the existing system to FPTP.
That’s scary.
I’d be curious as to how the question was asked (ie was FPTP described as “the person who receives the most votes wins”).
Now Mr Rudd on the Drum
@J M I am not sure what display name is on about either.
@displayname Please illustrate this hypocrisy.
DisplayName – fair enough, that was immature, but the other side does it too. Not saying that two wrongs make a right, it’s immature all round.
Lizzie – you seem nice, thanks for the warm welcome.
Carey – true, although I wasn’t saying that it’s anyone’s fault, just seems weird, because I have been reading this board for a while, and it seems to be literally about 95% or so. Any idea why?
@AP: Internet freedom activist’s suicide raises questions about how harshly to prosecute computer crimes: http://t.co/eiU3rHTg – VW
@1petermartin: Surely not. MT @HughdeKretser Want a job in the WeetBix factory? Sanitarium says you must “align with our Christian based principles
[I’d like you to stay for a while. It might be interesting to have a “genuine National” on board.]
JM – I agree with lizzie. Which electorate are you in?
Laocoon
So more pathetic stunts then? Honestly sloppy is just hopeless.
It’s settled.
J M @ 168
Thank you, and I agree.
[Labor supporters grasping to approval ratings]
Hardly. By the time the election comes around Australians will have had around five years of Abbott as LOTO. Opinions on him vary, true, but only from mild dislike to outright revulsion, with an added dash of mockery for good measure. After five years of wishing he’d go away you think Australians are going to make Abbott PM and be stuck with him for another couple of years? Possible but unlikely.
People already switch off whenever Abbott comes on the tv; they already cringe every time they hear him; even Coalition supporters shudder at the thought of being represented overseas by Abbott. Face it: as a nation we’re sick of Tony Abbott. Put Abbott in the Lodge? Nope.
The only way the Coalition will win the election is with a fresh face, but they won’t do that for fear of tearing themselves apart. That’s why Labor is confident and Abbott is looking increasingly distressed. Or maybe it’s just the botox …
@abcnews: The Australian share market held onto gains today despite the release of weak economic data on the domestic economy: http://t.co/DoX8Ayou
On the Drum they are talking surplus
@EssentialVision: 41% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 49% (down 4%) disapprove #auspol http://t.co/9fIvtXB4
“@JuliaGillard: A Watch and Act is in place for a large fire which is burning uncontrolled in the Warrumbungle National Park to the West of Coonabarabran.JG”
Jackol @ 165: Yes it would be interesting to see how the question was posed. On your point that people have lived with preferential voting for years, bear in mind that people aren’t just voting these days in parliamentary elections, but also union elections, NRMA elections, polls run by media sites, and so on; so quite a lot of Australians will in fact have encountered FPTP. And if you are voting in a safe seat, or if you are voting for a major party, the requirement for you to express later preferences is nothing but a burden, since they won’t influence the result.
JM – this board is more progressive oriented whereas sites like Menzies House are dominated by Coalition RWers with progressives hounded out.
People gravitate to those with similar views I guess altho we have several LNP voices here and it adds diversity.
You will find that we will slay you(in a kindly way) with facts if you use Abbott’s fear tactics and the economics of Hockey & Joyce.
The internet is brilliant for finding actual quotes from pollies – Abbott and LNP suffer badly from speaking with forked tongue to different audiences. Bludgers can find those quotes in a flash.
Please bring your National Party perspective to the discussions
‘This board’ is biased towards people who can put forward and defend an argument, rather than merely spouting lines they’ve picked up around the place.
If it’s Labor biased, it’s because Labor supporters have more to work with.
If you don’t want your lines to be challenged, you won’t find this a comfortable place to post – so why bother? There are plenty of sites where you can spout whatever rubbish you want and be welcomed with open arms.
If you’re confident that your arguments will stand up to scrutiny, you’ll be fine.
BH – thanks. My electorate is Parkes, NSW. What’s your’s?
JM there are a few Coalition supporters here however most of us aren’t Abbott supporters. Welcome aboard.
You need to be around and see Rummel and Moderate Liberal in full flight. They manage to hold their own most times.
JM
Hope you and yours are safe and not under fire threat.
Sorry Modern Liberal. I just call him ML these days as it is much easier.
@daveyk317: “Let’s talk about Coal”. Full page spread on page 9 of the Financial Review. Interesting..#ClimateCrisis http://t.co/5BBB67XI
guytaur
[On the Drum they are talking surplus]
Please please please let there be a suplus. The sight of HoJo,jowls flapping,doing bluster at an oplympic level as he tries to dismiss the surplus would be comedy gold.
Poroti
Agreed.
son of foro – I myself turn off the tv whenever Gillard comes on, and I know that I am not alone there. I can’t bear to listen to any Labor polly speak, and Australians hate Gillard like no other PM has been hated. 54-46 to start the year, too.
son of foro – I myself turn off the tv whenever Gillard comes on, and I know that I am not alone there. I can’t bear to listen to any Labor polly speak, and Australians hate Gillard like no other PM has been hated. 54-46 to start the year, too.
Well I always thought the 2012/2013 surplus was a dream Swan was hoping for but never really possible.
J M
[I can’t bear to listen to any Labor polly speak]
Do you also turn off when Abbott et al come on to spout the same old same old three word slogans aka LNP polly speak ? What are you main beefs about the government ?
zoomster and BH, I will put forth my arguments and accept disagreement, that’s the point of debating, right? As long as it’s done in a mature way (and I won’t repeat the ‘pathetic’ Laborite comment from before, I apologise for that), as long as others don’t also resort to name-calling, and we can disagree in a relatively amicable manner.
david – as a fellow Coalition supporter, why don’t you like Abbott?
‘fess
Perhaps just a stunt. But maybe, they could stitch up a deal with some of the independents and Greens to get the information out.
Not a major point. But the potential for a defeat of the government on the floor of the parliament – which would play well; this was I think the Andrew Elder observation a little while back
Wow Tim Palmer on the Drum sticking up for gays against religion.
J M @# 189
”I myself turn off the tv whenever Gillard comes on,
The mating call of the “do not disturb my preconceived opinions, I do not want to deal with the facts” person.
John Howard will be the worst pm, Australia had imo
What would have been interesting , lets say the coalition did win the election in 2007, and howard lost his seat
Would Howard would have claimed victory or the deputy become the stand in pm
Would Howard have claimed victory or the deputy become the stand in pm
J M
[it appears that this site is very Labor-biased. It seems like about 99% to me, and Geoff is right that I am being called a troll for no other reason than being a Coalition supporter.]
There are other coalition supporters here (eg Rummel; ModLib, Davidwh) and in my recollection they aren’t called trolls (at least by most). There are a couple here who avow their support for the ALP who are widely deemed as trolls (everyone knows who they are).
This is a very pro-ALP site, but generally if you do better than zombie talking points you will get a civil hearing, which is not the same thing as saying that everyone is civil. It’s on you to bring an argument you can defend and avoid gratuitous flaming/sarc.
Son of foro @ 174: “By the time the election comes around Australians will have had around five years of Abbott as LOTO. Opinions on him vary, true, but only from mild dislike to outright revulsion, with an added dash of mockery for good measure.”
JM @ 189: “Australians hate Gillard like no other PM has been hated.”
Two thoroughly overcooked claims from opposite corners. The ALP supporters here need to come to terms with the fact that some people in fact approve of (and even like) Mr Abbott. And clearly some Australians hate Ms Gillard, but plenty of others don’t. (And JM, to say that she’s hated more than any other PM (going back to 1901) is a BIG claim, though it may be true in parts of Parkes.)
J M (& Geoff) – Feel free to post.
Hand grenade rollers annoy everyone.
If you’ve got something to say other than “Jiliars a Bitch” you’ll be welcome here.
All sorts of interesting discussion happens here, and it’s a great source of info on almost anything – just ask your question (medical, services, general ‘I’ve always wanted to know’, etc.)