Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research opens its account for 2013 much as it finished in 2012.

The first Essential Research poll for the year – indeed, the first poll full stop – has the Coalition leading Labor 54-46, a marginally better result for Labor than the 55-45 on which they closed their account in 2012. However, the primary votes are all unchanged on last time: 48% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 8% for the Greens. This survey also features Essential’s monthly measures of personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard up four points on approval to 41% and down four on disapproval to 49%; Tony Abbott steady on 33% and up one to 57%; and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister nudging from 43-34 to 42-33. Whereas Essential surveys are normally a two-week rolling average of about 1000 respondents for each week, this poll is just from the 1014 respondents in the January 9-13 survey period.

Entertainingly, the poll also takes the opportunity of the Queensland government recent effort to liven up the silly season by gauging opinion on electoral reform, with results well in line with other such polling in the past. Support for voluntary voting is at 40% with 49% opposed. Fifty-eight per cent say they would definitely vote if it were not compulsory against 25% for probably, 9% for probably not and 4% for definitely not. Only 13% support the lowering of the voting age to 16, with 78% opposed. The poll also finds first-past-the-post is the favoured electoral system, but only if opposition is allowed to split two ways, in classic first-past-the-post style. Preferential systems are favoured to first-past-the-post 48% to 44%, but that includes 22% support for the existing full preferential system and 26% for optional preferential, such as operates at New South Wales and Queensland state elections and was advocated by Bronwyn Bishop last week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

375 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 7 of 8
1 6 7 8
  1. [… in the application lodged with the court today, Mr Ashby states that the primary judge was wrong to find Mr Harmer intended to cause harm to Mr Slipper by including “irrelevant allegations”.

    In a statement issued on behalf of Mr Ashby, his spokesman said that Mr Harmer of Harmers Workplace Lawyers would also be seeking leave to appeal on Monday.

    “Justice Rares made separate and distinct findings regarding Mr Ashby and Mr Harmer, so each presently is being separately legally represented in this Application,” the spokesman said.]

    I’m wondering what legal standing Harmer has in this case?

    He was the solicitor for Ashby, not a party to the actual case.

    Ashby instructed Harmer, not the other way around.

    Very strange. I wouldn’t have thought Harmer’s remedy, if any, lay in sticking his nose into a case of which he is not party.

  2. Applications for leave don’t specify errors of trial judges’ decisions. The draft notice of appeal which must accompany the application should set out the challenges.

  3. I agree heartily that religious organizations spending tax money should be required to be different – by why should an organization that believes in no consumption of tabaco or alcohol be forced to employee a drinking chain smoker with their own money? It is an absurd proposition.

    Why should a religious body have to employee an atheist who hates them (like so many here are).

    I think your hate of religion is clouding your judgement.

  4. Just had a quick look at the Anti-Discrimination Bill.

    There doesn’t seem to be anything in it that would prevent the Commonwealth separately making it a requirement that an activity of a religion funded by the Commonwealth should not discriminate on any of the “excluded” attributes (marriage, religion, sexual oriantation, etc).

    It doesn’t seem to include a catch-all provision such as “notwithstanding anything in any other act” which is often used to cover the field.

    So I think it would still be possible for the Commonwealth to (say) specifically exclude discrimination on sexual orientation for teachers in a school funded or partly funded by the Commonwealth.

    All that the anti-discrimination bill appears to do is to protect religious bodies from being taken to court by individuals for the prescribed forms of dsscrimination but it doesn’t prevent the Commonwealth from making extra requirements where the Commonwaelth provides the funding.

    Don’t know if that is particularly clear, but to summarise I think there is still a pathway to enforce proper anti-discrimination when public money is involved. Some of the lawyers on here might be able to delve a bit further and advise us.

  5. [shellbell
    Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 8:42 pm | PERMALINK
    Applications for leave don’t specify errors of trial judges’ decisions. The draft notice of appeal which must accompany the application should set out the challenges.]

    so is Harmer a party to the case or not?

    Will his application for leave to appeal (against whatever) eventually appear here?

    February 6 directions will be inconclusive, and one has to wonder as to the motives of those concerned.

  6. J M@152

    lizzie, thanks, but this board does look RIDICULOUSLY Labor biased, whatever the percentage may be. I will respect other’s opinions as long as they respect mine.

    Always been a LNP voter , but cannot vote for Abbott. Since coming here, I have seen the light and will vote Labor from now on .PM Julia Gillard will win in 2013 , and the LNP will have to sort themselves out and get rid of the OLD howard front bench, Totally .Its going to be fun watching them , just like in 2007 & 2010.

  7. sprocket
    Thanks. I checked the Federal Court’s special Slipper/Ashby onlne file and there was no mention of Harmer filing today. Ashby’s application was up almost as soon as it was filed.

    [4 January, 2013 6:08PM AEDT
    A look at the world in 2013 with the foreign minister
    In studio today with Richard Glover on 702 Drive was Senator Bob Carr the Foreign Minister of Australia to talk about the challenges ahead in foreign affairs and the potential of Australia’s seat on the United Nations Security Council. Listen back to the full interview here.]

  9. [Menzies was many things, but he was not often as loopy as the Tea-Party braves.]

    His embarrassing fawning over the young Queen Elizabeth notwithstanding. 😆

  10. Ashby’s first three counts of appeal are that Rares erred in law … well, d’oh.

    Count 4 whinges that the abuse of process finding denied Ashby the right to have his case heard… well yes, of course. That’s what abuse of process findings are all about.

    It goes on to complain that costs shouldn’t have been awarded as FWA cases don’t involve substantial awards of costs. Ashby wants to take a minor matter that should have been handled in a meeting room over a cup of tea and, after forcing everyone to spend millions defending themselves, when the case is found to be an abuse, avoid having to pay for all the trouble he’s caused.

    Count 5 says “important” matters are at stake. Every applicant reckons his case involves important matters, so pffft.

    Count 6 says its a “serious” matter of “public interest” but it wouldn’t have been if Ashby hadn’t blown it up into a Federal case.

  11. confessions, Menzies will always be remembered for his royalist doggerel in the same as we will always remember Abbott for his dress-ups….basically the same thing at work too: tory pollies trying to be identified as something that they’re not….

  12. Geoff 222
    Is it Abbott that is Negative? or is it a smear campaign based his opposition of big ticket items?

    Can you give any logical reason, given the scale of the emergency, he would have run such an all-out public campaign against levy to assist reconstruction in the Queensland flood and cyclone emergencies?

    It was just pure bastardry based on the aim of undermining the legitimacy of Gillard’s Prime Ministership. And he got the media lackeys to back it.

    Howard passed levies of various kinds – 6 in 11 years. Some had little purpose other than to claim (by the levy) that the budget had run a surplus. What was the difference?

  13. David Donovan ‏@davrosz
    More naughty text messages by a certain Opposition frontbencher may be coming to light soon. (What a busy boy he’s been!) Stay tuned.

    4m Schnappi ‏@Schnappi5
    @davrosz Would they be what murphy has been hinting at or new fella ???

    David Donovan
    @Schnappi5 No, new ones.
    9:14 PM – 14 Jan 13

  14. They are fakes most of the time. I have a (very dry) old Aunt who says that after a lifetime of watching, she’s come to the conclusion that most everything is just for show. She would certainly be right about TA.

  15. In short… Ashby has bootstrapped his own case into something far more important than it should ever have been – by getting it into the newspapers by colluding with Lewis, by going straight to court instead of mediation, by employing $500 per hour public relations consultants and so on – and now seeks to use this inappropriate amplification to impress the Federal Court into letting him appeal.

  16. More and more, JG projects power and TA projects the want of it. She is going to win on strength of purpose, on courage, duty and will.

    [Greg Hunt: Can’t add, can’t read
    January 14th, 2013 John Quiggin

    Last time I paid attention to Opposition climate spokesman Greg Hunt, he was talking to the Oz, making absurdly inflated claims about the impact of a carbon price[1] on household electricity bills. Now he’s at it again, with a statement to Imre Salusinszky at the Oz, claiming that I endorsed Jonathan Moylan’s (reported) actions in the Whitehaven hoax, and that I supported market manipulation more generally. From that, he draws the conclusion that I have breached my legal obligation under the Public Service Act to comply with the law in all matters relating to employment, and therefore that I an not a fit and proper person to be a member of the Climate Change Authority. Here are the money paras from Salusinszky’s email to me and Hunt’s statement to the Oz ]

  18. briefly:

    What is it about post-modern alleged conservatives that they are always trying to be something else?

    I too have an entire side of the family which are very wealthy, traditional Liberal voters. The older ones are appalled at what the Liberals have become (my father was driven to vote Labor by the Howard govt), while the younger ones happily embrace Abbott and the rabble that he leads.

    It’s hilarious seeing them pretend to be working class heroes, while living their priviledged lives. But mum’s side of the family are working class and proud of it. My grandfather never pretended to have airs and graces.

  19. Menzies’ fawning over the Queen managed to get him a nice reward – a knighthood, the position of Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports and Warden of Dover Castle, plus his very own official residence in the UK, Walmer Castle.

    Poor old Howard got nothing except a very minor award after all his years of sucking-up. I’ve always thought Janette was frantically studying family history, hoping to find some links to the aristocracy that would see her installed in Castle Howard. What a shame she had to remain just plain old Janette from Botany.

  20. [Poor old Howard got nothing except a very minor award after all his years of sucking-up.]

    I meant what I said earlier about the Howard era producing no real lasting legacy of any note. The only thing people can identify now is gun control, for which he deserves plaudits, but this came in his first term.

    It must be awfully embarrassing to the Liberal cheersquad that there was nothing else in his subsequent 3 terms in office worth celebrating.


    I’m getting a new bed delivered on this coming Speed Dating Friday, so I won’t be able to participate.

    I’ll be ready to participate in speed dating Friday next week.

  22. Well there was always the GST confessions…

    Keating was right about that too. It was hardly a reform, just shifting the buckets.

    As for Greg Hunt, he’s become a right little shit over the years hasn’t he.

  23. Look, I admit I’m no lawyer, but like BB I have reservations about the veracity of Ashby’s “appeal”.

    Anyone would think the man has an alternative agenda 😉

  24. Henry: I’ve never been a Hewitt fan, and I don’t believe I’m about to start now.

    Unlike Mr Affleck, I’m unlikely to allow Mr Hewitt’s pantaloons to reside under my bed 😉

  25. I don’t know too much about modern aussie tennis as I gave up on it a long time ago.

    After growing up watching the proud legends we had in the sport and then having to put up with the antics of the “modern day” players.

    Reminds me of the old saying. Some of those are a few floggings short of being good blokes.

    Spoilt brats always comes to mind when I watch some of them

  26. What a charming Tory MP Andrew Laming is:

    @AndrewLamingMP: Mobs tearing up Logan tonight. Did any of them do a day’s work today, or was it business as usual and welfare on tap?

  27. confessions, I’m still at work……slow to respond…..sorry.

    These are very interesting questions, don’t you think?

    I think most behaviour is driven by normative responses – by group affiliation and iterative conformity. This enables us to “sort” out those things that we encounter in our daily lives and ensures that social cohesion is more or less spontaneous. This is an implacable force.

    In the past, social affiliation – based around signs of “class” identity, income, age, marital status, education, occupation, geography, religion and gender – was most probably much more rigid than it is today.

    These days changes of all kinds are creating a whole lot of new “axes” of identity/affiliation. This creates a lot of confusion about self/family/group identity and about what kind of conduct/s are socially acceptable. So there is a lot of role confusion. I think this is reflected in political affiliation because the traditional “markers” have lost a lot of their force.

    The mediating influences are very complex and subtle, and mean everything is a lot more dynamic. I do think that the responses we have to change itself – and to our ideas of self-and-society – are becoming more important than ever in the formation of political identity.

    From Labor’s point of view, this is about developing “confidence” that system-wide or personal resources can be found to help us all cope with change, and, in turn, sustaining confidence that the costs and the benefits of change will be “fairly” distributed. What is “fair” is highly contested of course. I think that contest is what a lot of politics consists of.

    I also think that a lot of political – as with all other social – identification is built around perceptions of status. By this I mean one’s political choices have to be consonant with other expressions of personal “value” – where “value” defines all kinds of personal/family attributes and the potential for them to improve in the future.

    By definition, normative conduct relies on inter-personal and inter-group comparisons and on a degree of self monitoring. People compare their own standing with the apparent ranking and conduct of others, and usually try to identify with relevant high-status exemplars. In my opinion, a lot of behaviour – this is going to sound terrible – is generated by opposition to the financial, social, educational and occupational mobility that might/might not be only selectively available to other groups or individuals.

    So they will resist changes that threaten the perceptions they have of themselves in relation to others. This accounts for the sometimes very bitter opposition to seemingly simple social reforms. It is a kind of fear or envy response and it operates to “keep things the way they are”. I think it is also involuntary.

  28. Evening All

    For the legal types out there is it normal for an appeal like Ashby’s to be heard by the full bench of the federal court??? Looks to me like that is what they are asking for

  29. Henry:

    Yes, the GST.

    So two (2) lasting reforms in 11 years in government.

    And the current lot of Liberals want to go back to this period of extraordinary stagnation, regression even.

  30. Newspoll

    51-49 2PP to the coalition

    Primaries: ALP 38, LNP 44, Greens 9.

    Gillard: satisfied 38, dissatisfied 49
    Abbott: satisfied 29, dissatisfied 58

    Better PM: Gillard 45, Abbott 33

    Jan 11-13, 1152 sample

Comments Page 7 of 8
1 6 7 8

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *