Having proved more than a few detractors wrong in avoiding defeat on the floor of parliament to this point, the Gillard government must face the polls at some time this year, by no later than November 30. Should it push the election date out as far as it can go, it will have extended its “three-year term” to three years and three months, the date of the 2010 election having been August 21. This is because the clock on the three-year term does not start ticking until the first sitting of parliament, which was on September 28, 2010. Once the parliamentary term expires, there can be a 10-day gap before the writs are issued, as many as 27 days for the ensuing nominations period, and a further campaign period of up to 31 days until polling day. The minority government agreement reached with Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott after the 2010 election stipulated the “full term” to be served should continue until September or October. The Howard government provided handy precedents in this respect, having held out for at least an extra month in 2001 and 2007 without incurring too much opprobrium.
The other end of the equation is how soon the election can be held. In theory, an election for the House of Representatives can be held at any time, so long as one dispenses with the assumption that it will be held concurrently with a half-Senate election (the time where a double dissolution might have been a theoretical possibility having already passed). A House-only election would put election timing for the two houses out of sync, something governments have been determined in avoiding since the last such election was held in 1972. There were theories abroad that the government might nonetheless have just such an election in mind, either to seize advantage of an upswing in the polls or to spare itself the embarrassment of failing to bring down a budget surplus. However, the government’s pre-Christmas withdrawal from the surplus commitment — together with the Prime Minister’s recent insistence the election date will be “around three years since the last one” — make it a safe bet the House’s election timetable will indeed be tied to the Senate’s.
The next half-Senate election will be held to replace senators who were elected when Kevin Rudd came to power in 2007. They began their terms in mid-2008 and will end their terms in mid-2014. The election process must begin in the final year of the six-year term, namely from the middle of this year. Since the process involves a campaign period of at least 33 days, the earliest plausible date is August 3 — less than three weeks before the third anniversary of the 2010 election. School holidays in various states between September 21 and October 12 offer a complication for part of the period nominated by Windsor and Oakeshott, although Howard’s decision to hold the 2004 election on October 9 showed that only the consecutive AFL and NRL grand final weekends were (in Howard’s own words) “sacrosanct”.
The best bets therefore seem to be the first three Saturdays in September (the 7th, 14th and 21st) and the last three in October (the 12th, 19th and 26th), with the proximity of the three-year election anniversary strengthening the case for September over October.
Andrew
The 2010 campaign for Labor was a very low ebb. The JG/KR relationship and that terrible “let’s look at a map” photo, Latham, Oakes, real Julia, etc etc ……
Now there’s a large body of done and underway policies. Runs on the board. And the real Abbott has now shown his face.
Anyone who thinks the Coalition aren’t just a tad worried must be well back, and should keep up.
So the ongoing OM support for Abbott is clearly by way of advertisement, PR, and trying to talk up a struggling case.
http://climatecommission.gov.au/report/off-charts-extreme-january-heat-2013/
[Off the Charts: Extreme Australian summer heat]
Just released, you can download full report as a pdf.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-12/climate-commission-predicts-more-heatwaves-bushfires/4461960
[Heatwave exacerbated by climate change: Climate Commission
AM By Simon Lauder
Updated 47 minutes ago
A new report from the Federal Government’s Climate Commission says the heatwave and bushfires that have affected Australia this week have been exacerbated by global warming.]
What bewilders me about Malcolm Turnbull worship is that there’s nothing to back it up.
Turnbull says he stands for a lot of things but he rarely backs this with action.
He’s walked away from the Republic, he’s walked away from carbon pricing, he may say he’s for same sex marriage but it doesn’t go beyond saying, and when he was LOTO he toed the Right wing line without any signs of strain.
The moderates continuing faith in him is just that – faith. There’s very little evidence to support it.
Goodness, with one of our more prolific contributors MOA, all (most) of the items seem to have some worthwhile to say.
Robust interaction is one thing, but vilification is another.
Andrew
[I wonder whether Ashby’s backers really wanted him to appeal?]
It’s probably Harmer wanting to try to get some critism from RaresJ of him overturned.
Bernard Keane @BernardKeane
Remember when Mr Abbott claimed the mining tax made Tanzania a safer place for mining investors than Australia? Oops… http://is.gd/fbNy0d
Bernard Keane @BernardKeane
Mr Abbott also said Argentina was safer than Australia. He’s not turning out a very good mining investment tipster http://is.gd/ZjavJI
Bernard Keane @BernardKeane
How about Zambia, another country Tony Abbott said was a safer mining investment destination than Australia? Oh dear… http://is.gd/fz79ya
zoomster:
Turnbull is opposed to same sex marriage. He has been quite explicit about that.
[I wonder whether Ashby’s backers really wanted him to appeal? they have got what they wanted- Slipper smeared and out of the speaker’s chair. I wonder whether Ashby threatened to speak out unless they continued to bankroll him?]
Ashby’s backers, all supporters of the Liberal party and parliamentary members such as Pyne and Abbott have achieved their immediate aim but didn’t achieve their ultimate seditious aim.
Unfortunately for them the sordid details of their activities can now come to light UNLESS they can keep the matter in court until after the next election. With the matter in court under appeal they can refuse to answer questions and their puppets in the MSM have an excuse not to delve into the details.
fess
[MALCOLM Turnbull has described those who claim legalising gay marriage would undermine the institution as ”dripping with the worst sort of hypocrisy”, in a speech defying the Coalition’s opposition to changing the law.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/turnbulls-gay-marriage-swipe-20120706-21mou.html#ixzz2HiW60usb
…which simply demonstrates his ability to dog whistle to moderates!
[The State election race has tightened since October but if the election were held now, the Barnett Government would still be returned with a metropolitan swing towards it, with Labor likely to lose up to six seats.
The Weekend West understands that pre-election polling has detected a swing of 2.5 per cent in Perth battlegrounds, which would eclipse Labor’s notional margins in Forrestfield, Balcatta and Morley.
If the swing was reflected across the State, Albany would also fall to the Liberals.]
The WA Newspoll results have been released at last. 57-43 to the Libs.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/15816096/barnetts-six-seat-election-swing/
zomster:
Indeed!
At the height of the policy being debated at Labor conference, he put a post on his blog stating he was opposed to same sex marriage, instead favouring civil unions.
zoomster @ 2609 on Turnbull’s abillity to dog whistle to moderates.
We are in more strife than I thought if a pollie has to dog whistle to moderates!
Phil Vee
I don’t know how else to explain what MT is doing!
Sorry, was wrong. That isn’t the WA Newspoll, but some other kind of polling.
Meh.
[zomster:
Indeed!
At the height of the policy being debated at Labor conference, he put a post on his blog stating he was opposed to same sex marriage, instead favouring civil unions.]
Turnbull has stated that he now supports same sex marriage.
He just doesn’t support it enough to vote for it in parliament.
zoomster@2603
The don’t call him “Malcolm Turncoat” for nothing. He can change his political position faster than most of us can change a lightbulb.
Turnbull is turning out to be one of the great disappointments of Oz politics.
So much promise, so little substance.
I used to be concerned that he would present a real danger to the government and its policies. But no longer. He is too vulnerable on his own track record, not least of all on the NBN, where he has been a truly partisan hypocrite.
Abbott got one thing right: If you want to politically destroy Turnbull, give him the job of opposing the NBN.
A tactic that looks increasingly likely come back to bite the Coalition in the rear, when they find out they have no more electorally acceptable leaders left.
I for one would be extremely worried if Talcolm got the nod as opposition leader prior to the election.
I just hope that what is reported is true, and that is the Fibs won’t go with him if they replace Tone the Truckwit.
I think Joe public would believe anything that the rags printed about MT. There are still a massive amount out there that believe whatthey read and hear about Rabbott.
I reckon Labor has the Truckwits measure, but I am not as confident with MT.
I wonder if Turnbull and Abbott share a common characteristic that they want to become PM because…well, just because; they just want to become PM.
Personal ambition. Not really tied to a vision of where to take the nation…???
Confessions@2614
I was trying to make sense of this figure.
The para reads: “The news is not all bad for Labor, with the snapshot eight weeks from the March 9 election an improvement on the 57-43 two-party preferred lead to the government in Newspoll in October.”
My reading of this is either there is another 2pp they have not mentioned or they are just guessing based on their in-house poll.
Mu question is what does the ‘new’ 2pp say? It is interesting all the analysis is based on the skimpy margins in some 10 seats – 4 held by the Libs and the others by Labor.
It is interesting that the article within the paper where the ‘close’ seats are so-say analysed, that it is done from a “Liberals should win” perspective.
I think there is little doubt, for instance, that Morley was a one-off last time but the comment reads….”Labor likes its chances but will the D’Orazio followers drift back to Labor or stick with the incumbent?”
Given the margin is -0.8% I would think this is just too narrow for the Liberals to hold.
Apart from the two seats of Pilbara and Kimberley, all the other seats – both Labor and Liberal are paper thin.
In general terms, the article is next to useless.
Turnbull and Abbott are trying to sell the same product to different parts of the median strip.
Regrettably, the ALP hasn’t given up on the idea of pitching at those on Abbott’s turf.
Abbott, Turnbull, Gillard and Rudd may be all the things – good and bad – that bloggers say they are, but that’s not really the point. What really matters is how they would poll as leaders. At this moment you’d have to say:
1. Abbott would beat Gillard.
2. Turnbull would romp home against Gillard.
3. Turnbull would beat Rudd.
4. Rudd would probably beat Abbott.
The first polls for the year will be instructive, coming as they will after a quiet period during which voters have had time to reflect. I expect they will show little change and that there will be no change in the leadership of either party. Rudd is putting on weight and no longer has that lean and hungry look.
If, hoevr, there is a big drop in support for either side, anything could hapopen.
[In general terms, the article is next to useless.]
tricot:
Agreed.
TT
But ‘how would they poll as leaders’ (when they’re not) is perception versus reality.
MT WAS the LOTO. And he was heading for a trouncing.
Just because people have nostaligic fantasies about what he was like as LOTO doesn’t mean that will translate into fact if he’s LOTO again.
They were disappointed in him last time. They would very quickly be very disappointed in him again.
It’s all moot, anyway. Malcolm and Rudd aren’t coming back. So the only relevant comparison is Abbott v Gillard, and the polls are indicating that (given the usual tightening as an election looms) Gillard beating Abbott is a real possibility.
If the Libs change leaders, it’s more likely to be Morrison or Hockey versus Gillard. Then she’d really romp it in.
Tricot & confessions
Its not stated, but that WA article reads like it about polling (an internal poll for one of the parties maybe, but doesn’t say where it comes from) on key marginal seats only, saying the result is better than what the last released WA Newspoll would suggest for the ALP, but still good for the Libs, so there would be no overall Statewide TPP to report.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/15816096/barnetts-six-seat-election-swing/
[What really matters is how they would poll as leaders. ]
Actually what really matters is that neither Rudd nor Turnbull will lead their parties to this year’s election.
Leroy:
Yes, that’s my take too. An internal poll.
I hate to sound cynical but all pollies change position.
In some regards it isn’t a problem as long as they can explain why.
Some pollies change their position due to life experience.
Turnbull is more constant than Tone.
Gillard would beat Hockey, Morrison would be more competitive.
mexican
the point is not that MT changes position – something I like pollies to do – but that he says things and doesn’t follow through on them.
Thus he preserves the image that he’s a moderate without actually any substance to back it.
It’s a bit like Amanda VanStone – she has this image as being a soft Liberal, without actually ever having done anything real to back it up.
[What really matters is how they would poll as leaders.]
Only on election day, when they are actually the leaders, being subject to much greater scrutiny over their track record.
Very different calculation.
mexican
agree with you about Hockey, but Morrison?
He appeals to the hard Right even more than Abbott does (which is why I’d tip him as the next Liberal leader) but he is even less appealing to the moderates.
http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/01/experts-fear-collapse-of-global-civilisation/
[Escalating climate disruption, ocean acidification, oceanic dead zones, depletion of groundwater and extinctions of plants and animals are the main drivers of the coming collapse, they write in their peer-reviewed article “Can a collapse of global civilisation be avoided?” published this week.
Dozens of earth systems experts were consulted in writing the 10-page paper that contains over 160 references.
“We talked to many of the world’s leading experts to reflect what is really happening,” said Ehrlich, who is an eminent biologist and winner of many scientific awards.
Our reality is that current overconsumption of natural resources and the resulting damage to life-sustaining services nature provides means we need another half of a planet to keeping going. And that’s if all seven billion remain at their current living standards, the Ehrlichs write.
If everyone lived like a U.S. citizen, another four or five planets would be needed…]
[Protection of the Earth’s biodiversity must take centre stage in all policy and economic decisions. Water and energy systems must be re-engineered. Agriculture must shift from fossil-fuel intensive industrial monocultures to ecologically-based systems of food production. Resilience and flexibility will be essential for civilisation to survive.]
Zoomster true he has had opportunities to cross the floor but is that a true reflection of his view or just sticking to the party line.
As someone earlier said, Turnbull opposition to the NBN will turn out to be a closely political mistake.
[At this moment you’d have to say:
1. Abbott would beat Gillard.
2. Turnbull would romp home against Gillard.
3. Turnbull would beat Rudd.
4. Rudd would probably beat Abbott.]
So you talked to Santa, petted the Reindeer and you’re now waiting for the Tooth Fairy.
May all of your dreams come true, except that:
1. Abbott is stuffed whatever happens. Too many laughing at him and his cupboard is bare.
2. Likewise Turnbull with the addition of his Grech and Republic baggage. The LNP won’t wear him again at present.
3. Which makes this point superfluous
4. Caucus won’t wear Rudd at all. 71 to 31 mean anything?
TT
I am quietky confident that Gillard will defeat whoever leads the LNP when the election is held in 2013. I seriously doubt that the LNP’s leader at the time will be Abbott, though it might be that they have nothing better that the parliamentary party can accept.
It seems to me that the most likely contender after Abbott is Joe Hockey rather than Malcolm Turnbull assuming a spill gets going.
Re my post @ 2632
We know that the LNP will continue with their own version of “business as usual”. But can Labor cut itself off from its affection for coal mining? And is that enough?
…I didn’t bother, because a Turnbull/Rudd match up isn’t going to happen.
But we know what the polls were when it was Turnbull/Rudd. In no known universe was Turnbull going to win.
I fail to see what has changed which would (in an alternate universe) see that change.
Zoomster
Yes Morrison does appeal to the hard right and that could work against him overall but due to his appeal to that section of the electorate I think he would be more competitive than Hockey.
Leroy – and Confessions – still get the feeling just a bit too much stacked against Labor this time.
Not that the opposition has not been bad, but Barnett has done enough to hold it together – despite is very weak cabinet and Buswell to boot.
As others have pointed out, the irony, with Labor attending to the rort proportions of the gerrymander in the country in the past, it is in the country that it is likely no ground will be gained and possibly lost for Labor.
I wonder if Barnett will still have to sell his soul to those harlots the Nationals again?
1. Abbott would beat Gillard.
Only if Gillard runs a bad campaign or makes a seriously bad political mistake.
Tone had Gillard 12 months ago but instead of taking the momentum and building a positive clear policy direction he dropped the ball.
Needs the economy to tank badly and I can’t see it happening. Flat yes, Tank no
2. Turnbull would romp home against Gillard.
12 months ago I might have agreed but to the PM credit she has held firm on the policy front and has in the past six months grown into the role of Prime Minister.
3. Turnbull would beat Rudd.
Hard to tell, I will learn towards yes thanks to the attack ads featuring Swan and co
4. Rudd would probably beat Abbott.
Hard to tell, I will learn towards yes thanks to the attack ads featuring Swan and co
An interesting question would be who would win if it was Mark Latham v Tone
TT
[…coming as they will after a quiet period during which voters have had time to reflect…]
I wonder how many hitherto disengaged voters would use the summer to reflect on politics: versus shopping, Santa, beach, my latest diet, how damned hot it is…etc etc etc
They’ve come a long way from the broadcasting corporation that ran “The Great Global Warming Swindle” as a serious docco, with “discussion panel” afterwards, and which used to routinely apologize for mentioning Global Warming as anything else but a political issue of the “He-said/She-said” variety.
Even Greg Hunt’s tirade yesterday at the ABC web site, vowing to get rid of the Carbon Tax, implicitly acknowledged the need to get carbon emissions down.
The tables could very possibly turn, and soon, on public support for the Carbon Tax, with the current heatwave forcing punters to focus on the fact that it’s bloody hot at the moment, everywhere in Australia, and will be for quite a while to come.
Humans have a gene called “The Optimism Gene” that provides a (necessary?) counter to our unique intellectual ability to forsee and anticipate long-term future catastrophes – death, taxes, Global warming – by providing us with an inherited ability to dismiss such bad news with (sometimes irrational) rationalizations.
The recent period of rain and mild temperatures extended over two years of la Nina. It is now over. And so will soon be the rationalizations for opposing action on carbon emissions.
The dams will begin to slowly empty, until in a few years the critics of things like desalination plants will be running for cover, denying they were ever opposed to them.
Farms will slowly go dry and farmers will leave the land. Stock will die and we’ll see news items featuring parched mud plains that were once fertile fields and wetlands.
Bushfires will get worse until they’ve burned everything that can be burned and there’s no more fuel left to incinerate.
Sure, we’ve seen all this before, but this time the heatwave is on top of an increase in average temperatures. The heatwaves will be worse than anything we’ve ever experienced.
A few deniers will persist but, like the famous old man crocodile in the Serengeti river that became a series of ponds and then a small group of mudpools eventually, all the animals will congregate in one place, like Bolt’s blog, devouring each other purely to survive until the rains come again.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uFxbIAo-pQ
Measures like the Carbon Tax, already regarded as benign, if not profitable (with a little nouse exercised by smart consumers), will begun to be re-appreciated, as will the Murray-Darling plan, in place at last after 100 years worth of bickering.
It sounds awful to say it, but this heatwave couldn’t have come at a better time for Labor.
If you want to accuse me of revelling in disaster, I reject that, however.
The MDB Plan and the Carbon Tax and pricing plans, are DIRECTLY designed to combat what’s happening right now. While it is sad they have to be implemented, they are precisely related to the disaster and are designed to start the fixes for it, so long required but not put in place until Gillard got them done.
The kudos for acting so wisely should therefore go mostly to the government, not the Opposition for opposing both (although they did eventually agree to the MDB plan).
Most of the Coalition’s “Vows”, should they win the election, are so far based on issues from years back. They are approaching if not exceeding their “Use By” dates.
* We are now approaching the third year after Gillard’s 2010 “lie”.
* The Carbon Tax is implemented and will be well bedded-down by election time. Electricity consumption is reducing (even though Hunt says it’s not: he’s wrong).
* The MDB is a going concern, on the books and ready to roll.
* The NBN is rolling out. If nothing else it will supply one reason for regional Australians to stay put and re-train, not leave when agriculture is hit hard by Global Warming.
While it may have been cute to “vow” to repeal – to wipe out completely – the legislation behind these initiatives back in 2010-2011, when Gillard’s position looked flaky, with challenges from Rudd and major dissatisfaction with the Carbon Tax, that time is passed.
It’s too late to carry out 2010-2011’s (in some cases 2007’s!) policies and promises for action by the Coalition in 2014-2015 (the earliest opportunity to get the legislation defeated twice and a DD election run, and won – and that’s IF it is won).
By next week Julia Gillard will have been PM longer than Kevin Rudd. She will be the future, as well as the present.
In clinging to the slogans of the past, the Coalition has tied a yoke around its neck, urged on by an ever diminishing gaggle of crazies in their own party, egged on by the troglodytes like Bolt and the zombies at 2GB.
As the dams get lower and the paddocks get drier, Labor’s stocks will get better and better, and in an election year too!
Pretty soon the Coalition will realize this. But it’ll be too late.
The blood letting will be a joy to watch as the progressives within the Liberal and National Parties duke it out with the retros to see who gets to control the little puddle of mud in an acre of dried clay that they have left themselves to squabble over.
Not sure what happened with number 4, I’ll blame the Government 😉
It should have read
4. Rudd would probably beat Abbott.
Hard to tell, I will learn towards no thanks to the attack ads featuring Swan and co
An interesting question would be who would win if it was Mark Latham v Tone
zoomster
[Just because people have nostaligic fantasies about what he was like as…]
Speaking of which:
Since mid September, Gillard’s Newspoll net approval ratings have been higher than Rudd’s last month #justsaying 👿
Gillard would beat turnbull
easily
1- The media will tie turnbull to what mostly the coalition think , voting for turnbull is voting for labor
2- Turnbull will not have time to backflip
Abbott has done too much damage to the liberals
The liberal party has left it too late, abbott has them going into the election all on lies
– there will be carbon tax/price under the coalition
– there will be majority of labor legislation under the coalition
A change of leaders for the liberals may make it closer , but they left it too late to win the election this win
this year
MB
I wouldn’t say easily. Out there in voterland the PM is not popular and whilst her performance has considerably improved, the PM will need a lot to go right this year for her to win.
At least the PM is trending in the right direction.