Having proved more than a few detractors wrong in avoiding defeat on the floor of parliament to this point, the Gillard government must face the polls at some time this year, by no later than November 30. Should it push the election date out as far as it can go, it will have extended its “three-year term” to three years and three months, the date of the 2010 election having been August 21. This is because the clock on the three-year term does not start ticking until the first sitting of parliament, which was on September 28, 2010. Once the parliamentary term expires, there can be a 10-day gap before the writs are issued, as many as 27 days for the ensuing nominations period, and a further campaign period of up to 31 days until polling day. The minority government agreement reached with Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott after the 2010 election stipulated the “full term” to be served should continue until September or October. The Howard government provided handy precedents in this respect, having held out for at least an extra month in 2001 and 2007 without incurring too much opprobrium.
The other end of the equation is how soon the election can be held. In theory, an election for the House of Representatives can be held at any time, so long as one dispenses with the assumption that it will be held concurrently with a half-Senate election (the time where a double dissolution might have been a theoretical possibility having already passed). A House-only election would put election timing for the two houses out of sync, something governments have been determined in avoiding since the last such election was held in 1972. There were theories abroad that the government might nonetheless have just such an election in mind, either to seize advantage of an upswing in the polls or to spare itself the embarrassment of failing to bring down a budget surplus. However, the government’s pre-Christmas withdrawal from the surplus commitment — together with the Prime Minister’s recent insistence the election date will be “around three years since the last one” — make it a safe bet the House’s election timetable will indeed be tied to the Senate’s.
The next half-Senate election will be held to replace senators who were elected when Kevin Rudd came to power in 2007. They began their terms in mid-2008 and will end their terms in mid-2014. The election process must begin in the final year of the six-year term, namely from the middle of this year. Since the process involves a campaign period of at least 33 days, the earliest plausible date is August 3 — less than three weeks before the third anniversary of the 2010 election. School holidays in various states between September 21 and October 12 offer a complication for part of the period nominated by Windsor and Oakeshott, although Howard’s decision to hold the 2004 election on October 9 showed that only the consecutive AFL and NRL grand final weekends were (in Howard’s own words) “sacrosanct”.
The best bets therefore seem to be the first three Saturdays in September (the 7th, 14th and 21st) and the last three in October (the 12th, 19th and 26th), with the proximity of the three-year election anniversary strengthening the case for September over October.
Very ironic really.
Lizzie you are quoting Paul Ehrlich. His overblown and comprehensively wrong predictions since the early 1970s have contributed to the deniers claims that science does not have the answers.
He is the Steven Keen of population science.
mexicanbeemer
Posted Saturday, January 12, 2013 at 1:37 pm | Permalink
MB
I wouldn’t say easily. Out there in voterland the PM is not popular and whilst her performance has considerably improved, the PM will need a lot to go right this year for her to win.
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I agree she does need to make less mistakes, but in saying that , if turnbull become leader , i think the media would be less protective of him,
They are very protective of abbott
Turnbull wouild be under more media spotlight
In some ways having such a tough 2012 may work to the PM’s advantage for the PM has demonstrated strength of character and now if the PM can show the benefits of those policies and outline the future direction of the Government then the Government may find itself re-elected.
Due to the current HoR numbers whoever was PM was going to have a hard time getting re-elected.
The reason why I wouldn’t rule out the Government being returned is shown a bit by History. the other week when reading the 1984/85 cabinet papers I pondered how the Hawke/Keating Government was able to introduce such wide ranging reforms yet survive 1987-1990 and 1993 when in theory the Government should have lost those elections.
Ultimately the secret to it apart from the quality of the opposition was the Government after making hard decisions was able to show the benefits and show a clear policy direction.
MT is ok for a politician.
BB
Another incisive post… and good to see you’re posting here as well as PUB.
Not sure Rudd would beat Abbott, but certainly a chance. There is too much material to use against Rudd, almost all of it coming from his colleagues!
Julia is doing Abbott …slowly 🙂
Eeewwwwww….
That’s the thing for me. ‘Okay for a politician’ is perhaps the best analogy one can grasp. There is nothing definitive about Malcolm, and there never has been.
Really, I think Abbott is doing himself, all the time.
Mod Lid
Even you have to admit , labor is in command if the coalition shows cant change
And they will stick with the smear and fear
Meguire Bob:
The Coalition have been 6 points ahead for months, and before that they were consistently 12 points ahead.
Abbott is unpopular, yes, but, I hate to inform you about this as you don’t seem to get it, Gillard is very unpopular too.
I suggest you get out there in the real world every now and then to chat to voters and see what they say about her performance.
The Opposition will have to produce a suite of acceptable policies, of course, just like every other election in history. If they are tolerable, Abbott becomes PM.
I think the only reason he does it is because he lurves press attention.
He was quite the show pony when he was a barrister.
Oakeshott Country
I would not have quoted it if it hadn’t contained the following:
Also, this has been stated by others before
And
It was published in the in the “prestigious science journal, Proceedings of the Royal Society.”
Frankly I don’t care who does or doesn’t believe it. I think we’re already stuffed and I probably won’t be alive to suffer the worst effects of AGW.
Mod Lib
Opinion polling based on media’s agenda mean nothing in an election year
Yes i will give it to you Gillard may be unpopular, but she and the carbon price are well ahead of Abbott though
And if you take the Morgan poll 52.5-47.5 in favour of labor
which is more reality then newspoll, morgan poll at least talked about policies
not a good sign for the abbott coalition
MT is smart, more than capable of dealing with multiple issues strategically simultaneously, communicates well across a broad spectrum of groups and people and most important is not as loopy as the current LOTO. He would do alright given another chance but the problem is that second chance is unlikely to happen before the election.
US droughts and heatwaves
_____________________
Counterpunch criticizes the US media for it’s failure to see the effects of climate change and the huge drought which effected nearly 40% of the US in 2012
The US had in many places the hottest driest summer on record,with major impacts on world food productio
Interesting in the light of our predicament now in summer
What would Warren Truzzzzz make of that statistic ??
US drought and the failure of the US media to report re climate change in 2012
_____________
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/08/31/drought-climate-change-and-journalism-101/
davidwh
Turnbull may be a better alternative then abbott
But do you think the media will make it alot harder for Turnbull and not protective like they are with abbott
I understand this is your opinion. The point I am making is that you are wrong.
You, Dick Morris, Karl Rove have argued that opinion polls were wrong, were examples of media bias, and that you had a better understanding of the reality of elections:
Dick Morris and Karl Rove are now the laughing stocks of psephs, having screwed up entirely and utterly.
I acknowledge you concede Gillard is unpopular.
“Well ahead”? She has 36% approval vs. 28% approval for Abbott. I think Howard had approvals of about 50% just before being wiped out in 2007.
Morgan?
You have to be kidding! Have a look at the Newspoll, Essential, Galaxy and ACN. Morgan is a laughing stock in Australia (unless you give the LNP the 3 to 4% bias Morgan is well known to have in ALP favour.
Pity bemused couldn’t just let it go although he was getting egged-on by others. Hope he is back before the next Newspoll release as he always adds an interesting dimension to discussions.
davidwh:
That’s really no excuse. Impulse control is one of the attributes one expects from adults. Seeing the bigger picture is another.
Mod Lib
The news poll shows its a media agenda ridden poll
the last poll of 54-46 has to justify their attack on Gillard
Maybe this year newspoll will ask opinions on policies more then news ltd agenda
I know Fran 😉
Lizzie 2665 re Global collapse due to climate change
___________________________
You are right
The Royal Society report mirrors twe conclusion of academics in the field like Prof Lovelock of Oxford in his bool “Giai’s Revenge” in which he preddicted that clobal warming would see civilization collapse and that life would only survive in the colder far north and far south of the planet
Alaska/Iceland/Siberia/Chile/Tasmania and it will take tens of thousands of years for the planet to return to”normal”.. if ever
A bleak prospect for humanity
Meguire Bob:
The two main problems with your thesis that Newspoll is out to get the ALP are:
1. Newspoll is better for the ALP than the average
2. The most recent Newspoll was perfectly consistent with every other recent poll
every other reliable poll (Morgan F2F being unreliable)
David, I suspect that on MT your reasoning has substance and is well thought out… I agree that he won’t get another chance but if he did I still reckon he’d get flogged. 🙂
Re Turnbull
_______
I think he would embrace the climate change agenda which Abbott will not
In many ways he is a potential inner
In 1974,the Libs dumnped Billy Snedden after a hapless career as LOTO ands picked Frraser for the new LOTO
…we thought that a great thing.and that Malcolm Fraser was unelected
the rest is history as they say
I have no doubt that Turnbull woulkd,win in a landslide against Gillard…who arte some say here ..is still not much loved
Mod Lib
we will see , if the opinion polling are to be taken seriously and reliable
All of them should be on policies from both the government and alternative government this year ,
Davidwh:
With any luck William will make the ban permanent. He would certainly save himself a great deal of moderating work if he did.
MB I don’t think the media will be any less easy on MT than they have been on TA. I think the media has a problem with JG rather than they may be in love with TA.
Someone mentioned Latham earlier. One of the ironies of the current alignment of forces is that since the most corrupt and reactionary elements of the NSW Right have now joined the R*dd camp, Latham (who hates them with all the slightly unhinged hatred he is famous for) has rejoined the legions of the righteous and his been writing and saying sensible stuff (ie, supporting the government). He’s still only 51 and may yet rehabilitate himself.
Mod Lib
If you quote polls to substantiate your argument in one sentence and then advise others to get out into the real world… seems a tad inconsistent. JG leads TA comfortably as PPM … either the polls are correct or they aren’t, you can’t have both.
I hate permanent bans confessions. We are all supposed to be adults and learn from mistakes, get over childish spats and be able to move on.
Psephos:
Latham has indeed been sensible in recent months.
Lovelock has now apparently changed his mind and become a sceptic. He’s always been a contrarian and being 93 hasn’t helped.
davidwh
Spats aren’t as much of a problem as continuous repetition, perhaps. Boredom is very off-putting – just like in school.
Well no. I don’t agree with that at all.
The opinion polls should ask about voting intentions. That is the primary outcome of interest.
Policy questions are usually a reflection on voting intentions anyway.
That’s the problem though davidwh. He never does.
Mod Lib, why does “getting out there in the real world every now and then to chat to voters” (ie, conducting a small and unscientific poll) produce a more accurate picture of voters’ opinions than reading the findings of large and scientific polls? Every poll I’ve seen says that Abbott is more unpopular than Gillard and that Gillard is PPM.
The polls perfectly match the Australia I live in. Both leaders are unpopular but the ALP government is about to get whacked.
PPM is unreliable, it is voting intentions that matter.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/earthquake-rattles-eastern-suburbs-20130112-2cm4g.html#ixzz2HjMPpsM0
I think the media thrive on stories. If they haven’t got a good one, they have no difficulty making one up. When they do invent things, as often as not they’ve just taken an old theatrical set and given it a quick re-coat.
When it gets down to it, the media don’t really care if things are real or if they are conjured up – it’s all the same stage show. The good thing about making things up is you can turn events to suit your own imagination. You don’t need to be restrained by facts. The temptation is to dispense with facts as quickly as possible. I think the bottom of Sydney Harbour is probably dense with unwanted facts, thrown into the drink by journalists who have become fascinated by their own elegance.
I am certainly not saying that you should ask a few friends and decide what the election outcome will be based on that, just that Meguire Bob’s attitude that he is ignoring the polls and just deciding the ALP will romp it in is completely wrong (ala Dick Morris and Karl Rove).
Abbott was beating Gillard for most of the year, but indeed has dipped beneath her in recent months. The PPM has flip flopped but currently Gillard wins, but hardly convincingly.
So what? Voting intentions are where the money is, not PPM. Do you disagree?
Lizzie
My point is that Ehrlich’s consistent failure to get predictions right has caused significant harm to the debate on population growth and AGW. With some justification deniers can point to him, and by extension other climate scientists, to say that the nature of the crisis is grossly exaggerated.
The claims he and his wife make in this article are the same as the ones they made 45 years ago – then it was that by 1980 all marine life will be dead and large sections of coast will be polluted by dying fish carcases. This would occur after the great European food riots of 1975 following which the UK would disintegrate into warring tribes – civilisation would not survive the 70s. Of course the world is a far richer place now compared to 1967 but the doomsaying got Ehrlich a significant popular following. In the scientific community not so much.
Frankly I don’t care who does or doesn’t believe it. I think we’re already stuffed and I probably won’t be alive to suffer the worst effects of AGW.
Ehrlich said the same thing in 1972 – such pessimism and the denial of the initiative of man resulted in him making some frankly racist statements in which he suggested abandoning the poorest third world countries to their fate and enforcing contraception and abortion in other non European countries.
Peer review, particularly in Proc Roy Soc does not imply a great deal and I am sure there will be an enthusiatic response in the next issue.
Mod Lib, the winds are shifting against the LNP and will soon blow them onto shallow ground. They have a failed leader. They have no policies. They have no rationale. They have a failed strategy that just cannot be re-worked in time. They are sailing to their doom!!
a possible outcome briefly, certainly possible.
More likely, however, is that the ALP are the ones “sailing to their doom”! :devil:
A week before polling day, that is certainly so. But not eight months out. Voting intention is still soft among the floating voters, because they’re not paying attention yet. But they are forming subjective opinions about the party leaders, and that will help determine how they actually vote. Gillard was intensely unpopular during the “carbon tax” period, but that has now passed and her standing is recovering. Abbott’s standing is poor, and declining. Voters don’t like him, they don’t like his scare campaigns and they don’t like his stunts. If these trends continue in 2013, voting intention will eventually follow them. Voters have been known to elect leaders they don’t much like (Keating, Kennett), but not ones they actively detest.