Election date roulette

For those who missed it, here is the business end of an article I wrote for Crikey yesterday concerning the possible date of this year’s federal election.

Having proved more than a few detractors wrong in avoiding defeat on the floor of parliament to this point, the Gillard government must face the polls at some time this year, by no later than November 30. Should it push the election date out as far as it can go, it will have extended its “three-year term” to three years and three months, the date of the 2010 election having been August 21. This is because the clock on the three-year term does not start ticking until the first sitting of parliament, which was on September 28, 2010. Once the parliamentary term expires, there can be a 10-day gap before the writs are issued, as many as 27 days for the ensuing nominations period, and a further campaign period of up to 31 days until polling day. The minority government agreement reached with Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott after the 2010 election stipulated the “full term” to be served should continue until September or October. The Howard government provided handy precedents in this respect, having held out for at least an extra month in 2001 and 2007 without incurring too much opprobrium.

The other end of the equation is how soon the election can be held. In theory, an election for the House of Representatives can be held at any time, so long as one dispenses with the assumption that it will be held concurrently with a half-Senate election (the time where a double dissolution might have been a theoretical possibility having already passed). A House-only election would put election timing for the two houses out of sync, something governments have been determined in avoiding since the last such election was held in 1972. There were theories abroad that the government might nonetheless have just such an election in mind, either to seize advantage of an upswing in the polls or to spare itself the embarrassment of failing to bring down a budget surplus. However, the government’s pre-Christmas withdrawal from the surplus commitment — together with the Prime Minister’s recent insistence the election date will be “around three years since the last one” — make it a safe bet the House’s election timetable will indeed be tied to the Senate’s.

The next half-Senate election will be held to replace senators who were elected when Kevin Rudd came to power in 2007. They began their terms in mid-2008 and will end their terms in mid-2014. The election process must begin in the final year of the six-year term, namely from the middle of this year. Since the process involves a campaign period of at least 33 days, the earliest plausible date is August 3 — less than three weeks before the third anniversary of the 2010 election. School holidays in various states between September 21 and October 12 offer a complication for part of the period nominated by Windsor and Oakeshott, although Howard’s decision to hold the 2004 election on October 9 showed that only the consecutive AFL and NRL grand final weekends were (in Howard’s own words) “sacrosanct”.

The best bets therefore seem to be the first three Saturdays in September (the 7th, 14th and 21st) and the last three in October (the 12th, 19th and 26th), with the proximity of the three-year election anniversary strengthening the case for September over October.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,828 comments on “Election date roulette”

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  3. I’ve been out (again) this evening, so apologies for my tardiness in banning Bemused for once again flagrantly ignoring my clear, repeated and entirely reasonable instructions to him. The period of the ban will certainly not be less than one week, and it will be extended a week further for every querulous email he sends me defending his indefensible behaviour.

  7. Firm action on bemused, William. But I fear justified. We all have our differences but we should avoid name-calling.

    Referring to one of our best (of many) posters as “Bullshit Bill” rather demeans the place. Bemused can be highly constructive to knowledge and debate, but does respond too personally at times.

    I remember he spent a lot of time attacking Boer War, who was among the first to identify Mr Rudd’s white-anting. Calling him ‘Bore War’ does not add anything to discussion.

    I don’t know the solution, but believe it is more than just the Rudd wars, even if that is a major trigger. Most of us are not hostile because of such differences.

    I felt sorry that Scorpio went off the rails somewhat recently and got banned. He, too, is a valued contributor, regardless of where he stands on that – as was our much-loved Vera.

    Our side of politics does produce passion, I’m afraid, and some people can respond very personally despite being valued. It is something we have to live with, but we ought to all exercise some basic respect for others.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Where self interest and ignorance trump decency.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/football-town-torn-as-hacker-group-forces-alleged-gang-rape-into-open-20130111-2cld0.html
    The Coalition seems to have been quiet about the details of this announcement.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/sex-abuse-victims-may-get-payouts-20130111-2clc2.html
    Gerry Harvey please take note!
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/millions-wasted-on-needless-warranties/story-e6frea83-1226552361109
    Never mind facts!
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/howard-rejects-imfs-big-spender-tag-20130111-2ck3z.html
    Alan Moir on the heat wave.

    David Pope has a good crack at CC deniers.

  10. Re that piece on extended warranties, BK. It reminded me that 22 years back we bought a Sanyo microwave from Stan Cash. Although we were not talked into it, we actually took out an extended warranty on that to cover it for about 5 years (for an extre $80).

    Not much was known then about long-term reliability of microwaves – so we thought it prudent. We shouldn’t have bothered. Nothing’s gone wrong with the thing in over 20 years.

  11. And from the Land of the Free =

    How sick can a country get it it tolerates stuff like this?
    http://americablog.com/2013/01/new-video-from-guy-who-threatened-to-start-killing-people-if-obama-issues-gun-regs.html
    This is a helpful contribution I must say!
    http://americablog.com/2013/01/drudge-compares-obama-hitler-stalin-gu.html
    And so is this!
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/01/11/video-gun-activist-if-blacks-had-guns-they-wouldnt-have-been-slaves/
    Fox and Friends (mental giants all) have their say.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/01/11/video-fox-friends-crew-spars-are-obama-biden-being-hypocritical-by-pursuing-gun-control/
    Yes, only in America!
    http://crooksandliars.com/david-neiwert/two-portland-gun-nuts-brandish-assau
    More gun + flu epidemic cartoons –



    FoxNews at its best.
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/eric-bolling-schools-pushing-liberal-agenda-
    The NRA meets its worst enemy – Joe Biden.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/101791465

  13. I sometimes wonder whether I am just insane.

    The IMF, the International (fcking) Monetary Fund basically demolishes years and years of myths from the OM and the coalition about their economic management, and we hear barely a whimper from the OM (apart from Howard’s denials- he would say that wouldnt he) and the Labor government.

    I must be living in a parallel universe.

  15. Why are Labor still too scared to debate their economic credentials. With George Mega’s analysis, the BISONs and now the IMF report, Labor should be making the argument that they are the better economic managers

  17. BK:

    [How sick can a country get it it tolerates stuff like this?]

    It does and yet, it might not. As Aravosis points out, how long would it be before the secret service went after an ostensible Muslim who posted a similar video?

  18. Slipper can seek security for costs of the appeal which if not paid means the appeal is stayed.

    He needs however to have a potential costs liability which means he needs lawyers for the appeal.

  20. Stutchbury’s AFR take is in the headline
    [Coalition slams IMF claims against Howard]
    And just to make sure you got the message, the third of three key points highlighted, just to undermine the credibility of the IMF (who do they think they are compared to Hockey et al):
    [The IMF Report found Greece had periods of fiscal prudence]

  21. BK

    That story on the town and rape shows how those who do bad can expose a greater good. I am no fan of Anonymous and its methods.
    However when they do stuff that exposes such crime I can only applaud.

  25. For those who scoffed yesterday about Mike Seccombe’s criticism of the media in the Whitehaven ‘scandal’:

    [AUSTRALIA’S stockmarket operator has urged the nation’s media to slow the speed at which digital sites are publishing news in a bid to ensure that standards are maintained and financial markets are not distorted.

    The rare comments from the ASX’s chief compliance officer Kevin Lewis came after several media outlets became involved in this week’s Whitehaven Coal scandal by reporting a hoax press release as fact.]
    [Mr Lewis said many companies had already painted a damning critique of the media’s role in the stockmarket prior to the Whitehaven debacle, through a review the ASX is conducting into its continuous disclosure rules.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/asx-urges-media-caution-after-whitehaven-hoax-20130111-2clda.html#ixzz2HhyhGAWt

  28. Let’s ask Mr Abbott some questions,
    [Tony Abbott is a media magnet. Nothing can happen on the Australian political scene without the resultant news story beginning with: “Tony Abbott says . . .”

    And so it was with the announcement that Peter Slipper would face three charges after being summonsed by the AFP over allegedly breaching MP car travel rules.]
    http://theaimn.com/2013/01/11/lets-ask-mr-abbott/

  29. PvO on the conservative nature of the Libs.
    [Finally, because the Liberal Party now is a more deeply conservative party than during the Howard years, Turnbull’s ideological positioning does not easily fit with the attitudes of the caucus, or much of the party membership. Only desperate times would see the Liberals turn to someone as moderate as Turnbull, especially as its coalition partner (the Nationals) is an even more conservative party (and the parties are now one in Queensland).]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/why-the-libs-wont-change-their-chief/story-fn53lw5p-1226551500008

  30. Dog Albitey can only help the ABC.

    Turnbull generously spoke about Macklin, saying that her statement was totally out of character. This was his main message.

    As an aside at the end, clearly an aside judging by his voice, and clearly not meant to down play his main message supportive of Macklin, he added WTTE “of course it would’ve been better had her apology come sooner”. This aside was not an oblique backhander.

    So the ABC News all over the country says WTTE “Turnbull criticises the slowness of Macklin’s apology”. Is this plain incompetence or an agenda or the ABC simply going for the headline at the cost of the truth?

    The ABC is on a par with some PBers who make the spin that Macklin, on her own initiative offered a comment that she could live on the dole …. drawing to the foreground issues which were actually part of the background.

    She was stupid and media un-savvy enough to succumb to a determined gotcha, which is altogether different to initiating and volunteering the silly comment. For this she is culpable.

    But her culpability stands in pale insignificance to that of the OM and especially the ABC in reporting on the matter.

  31. morning all

    Shellbell I read somewhere that Slipper had engaged the same Lawyer who acted for Haneef, to represent him in the cabcharges hearing. Perhaps, this Lawyer will also represent him in the Appeal hearing.

  33. victoria

    I’m beginning to have some respect for PvO, since he engages sensibly in twitter conversations and doesn’t block criticism. That article seemed v. sensible. 🙂

  35. psyclaw

    One of the frustrations of keeping up with live media interviews is listening to the distorted reporting of reality later on. The bias/re-emphasis is often so blatant we wonder how it can be denied.

  38. victoria

    Little does he know what he’s let himself in for!
    Although he complains that Abbott won’t front, so I’ll give him credit for trying to nail the stuntman.

  40. Sigh.

    I get annoyed when ‘political experts’ like PvO demonstrate their lack of knowledge about the parties they’re commenting on.

    [With members playing a key role in preselections (unlike goings-on in the Labor Party) ]

    Sorry, PvO. That’s wrong.

    Possibly it’s correct in the WA context, I don’t know. But the Labor party’s preselection processes vary from state to state, and to say members don’t play as much as a role in preselections in the Labor party as they do in the Liberal party is simply ignorant.

    Just as it’s possible PvO is talking only about the WA situation, I can only talk about the Victorian one. But unlike PvO, I don’t assume it’s the same for the party as a whole.

    Here’s what I know–

    1. Both Labor and Liberal operate under the 50/50 rule. That is, 50% of the votes in preselections come from locals and 50% from HO.

    — However, in the Labor party, the local vote is taken first. In the vast majority of cases, where the local vote makes the local members preference clear, that’s the end of the story.

    It only goes to the HO vote if (i) there’s an objection to the result or (ii) HO knows something about the candidate the local branches don’t.

    If HO decides to ‘parachute’ someone in – an exceedingly rare occurence – then there’s no vote, full stop. But it happens perhaps once every election cycle, meaning this happens about 1% of the time (it’s just very high profile when it does).

    — in the Liberal party, both votes are held simultaneously. It is extremely easy, therefore, for the HO votes to outweigh the local vote, and extremely difficult to prove when it does. So a candidate can be parachuted in by HO without anyone being able to prove that it happened.

    But compare and contrast – in 100% of preselections, Liberal HO has a say in the decision making, whereas in the Labor party it only does in the case of ‘held’ seats, or where there is an appeal.

    2. Branch stacking in Labor happens because the branches are important in the process. If branches weren’t, there’d be no point stacking them.

    However, let’s not overlook the Liberals own creative approach to branch stacking. Basically, they’ve legalised it. Labor has strict residency requirements if you want to vote in a local preselection (I’ve known cases where candidates resident in an electorate haven’t lived there long enough to vote for themselves in preselection). For the libs, you can live anywhere – even outside of Australia – and vote as a local member.

  41. victoria

    In the day of over 40 deg heat a week ago, I had an example of the vunerability of the elderly on a hot day.

    My mother’s room was warm, yes, but cooler than my own office, and I was checking on her regularly. Suddenly, in the afternoon, she complained that she couldn’t get her breath. She was panting like a little bird.

    Turned out that it was dehydration and was fixed by two glasses of water. Under questioning she realised that she hadn’t been drinking all afternoon. Didn’t feel thirsty, she said.

    Constant checking is the only way, especially when the memory ain’t too good.

  43. lizzie

    Dehydration is a real problem for the elderly. When they no longer feel thirsty, it means they are already well and truly dehyrdrated.

  44. Ashby/Hamer appeal – Did I read somewhere that it doesnt automatically go to appeal, – that the Federal Court first considers the merits of the appeal before agreeing to allow the appeal to go ahead. Given the comprehensive nature of Rares decision is it a possibility that the Fed court will deny leave to appeal? Presumably then the only option would be an appeal of the Fed court decision to the High Court? Or have I got this wrong?

  45. victoria

    The day before, she had been sipping water all day, so I thought she’d got the message. Ah well, at least she doesn’t live on her own. (She was blaming her dry mouth on a new dental plate!)

  48. I wonder whether Ashby’s backers really wanted him to appeal? they have got what they wanted- Slipper smeared and out of the speaker’s chair. I wonder whether Ashby threatened to speak out unless they continued to bankroll him?

  49. zoomster, it amazes me that PVO is a professor of politics. The analysis, in terms of depth and accuracy, of many posters here far exceeds his. He cannot put his Liberal prejudice to one side to give a proper account.

    It still amazes me that the OM are still so confident of an Abbott victory. He is deeply unpopular, the polls are relatively close, and Gillard will have the benefit of incumbency (which she did not really have last time) and a better campaign

  50. Good morning bludgers!

    [Only desperate times would see the Liberals turn to someone as moderate as Turnbull, especially as its coalition partner (the Nationals) is an even more conservative party (and the parties are now one in Queensland).]

    The penny finally drops for PvO. Good to see.

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