Having proved more than a few detractors wrong in avoiding defeat on the floor of parliament to this point, the Gillard government must face the polls at some time this year, by no later than November 30. Should it push the election date out as far as it can go, it will have extended its “three-year term” to three years and three months, the date of the 2010 election having been August 21. This is because the clock on the three-year term does not start ticking until the first sitting of parliament, which was on September 28, 2010. Once the parliamentary term expires, there can be a 10-day gap before the writs are issued, as many as 27 days for the ensuing nominations period, and a further campaign period of up to 31 days until polling day. The minority government agreement reached with Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott after the 2010 election stipulated the “full term” to be served should continue until September or October. The Howard government provided handy precedents in this respect, having held out for at least an extra month in 2001 and 2007 without incurring too much opprobrium.
The other end of the equation is how soon the election can be held. In theory, an election for the House of Representatives can be held at any time, so long as one dispenses with the assumption that it will be held concurrently with a half-Senate election (the time where a double dissolution might have been a theoretical possibility having already passed). A House-only election would put election timing for the two houses out of sync, something governments have been determined in avoiding since the last such election was held in 1972. There were theories abroad that the government might nonetheless have just such an election in mind, either to seize advantage of an upswing in the polls or to spare itself the embarrassment of failing to bring down a budget surplus. However, the government’s pre-Christmas withdrawal from the surplus commitment — together with the Prime Minister’s recent insistence the election date will be “around three years since the last one” — make it a safe bet the House’s election timetable will indeed be tied to the Senate’s.
The next half-Senate election will be held to replace senators who were elected when Kevin Rudd came to power in 2007. They began their terms in mid-2008 and will end their terms in mid-2014. The election process must begin in the final year of the six-year term, namely from the middle of this year. Since the process involves a campaign period of at least 33 days, the earliest plausible date is August 3 — less than three weeks before the third anniversary of the 2010 election. School holidays in various states between September 21 and October 12 offer a complication for part of the period nominated by Windsor and Oakeshott, although Howard’s decision to hold the 2004 election on October 9 showed that only the consecutive AFL and NRL grand final weekends were (in Howard’s own words) “sacrosanct”.
The best bets therefore seem to be the first three Saturdays in September (the 7th, 14th and 21st) and the last three in October (the 12th, 19th and 26th), with the proximity of the three-year election anniversary strengthening the case for September over October.
I’m sure William reads our posts bemused but that doesn’t mean he agrees with what gets posted.
Look I said what I said with the best of intentions and no angst was intended.
deblonay,
Sounds like a Show Trial Confession to me!
You’ve obviously gone out of fashion in the circles you haunt.
[Easily explained. Not all Catholics are like you and Abbott.]
I heard an interesting story on NPR that even the National Cathedral in Washington is going to perform same-sex marriage ceremonies:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=168922523
Clearly the views of people like G.G. and Tony Abbott, and sadly the Prime Minister, are pretty quickly going to be consigned to the dust bin of history.
Mod lib,
Cheers.
ShowsOn
Dont forget to include KRudd and MTurmbull
Showsy,
I know this is your hope and I’m not one that likes to trample the dreams of the simple and bewildered. However, I’m not sure you and a dialysis machine is the basis of a loving co habitation.
davidwh@2524
And I took it that way too.
I can’t recall ever having a cross word exchanged with you.
[ShowsOn
Dont forget to include KRudd and MTurmbull]
True. Turnbull is the biggest hypocrite in that he announced he supports same sex marriage before voting against it!
But hey, he did the same for carbon pricing too!
ShowsOn
And KRudd. Apparently he made promises that he would vote yes, but when the crunch came he too was a hypocrite
Bemused 2514 re Turnbull
_______________
Thanks Bemused
you are a real ormanent to this site !!
t
and I can’t believe tha Turnbull is a great mate of Cardinal Pell either
and as to anti-Catholic bigotry..on my part … it may amuse you to know( and GG if he is reading this ) that I am the product of… boy and youth … .of 12 years in the Catholic school system…some much for anti- catholic bigotry…and as they say..”some of my best friends are….”
Bemused I enjoy many of your posts, agree with some even!
Also true I think to say that many of us post some great posts every now and then (whether by hitting a PB nerve by accident, or wisdom I will not speculate) and many of us post smart ar*e and low brow posts from time to time. Some manage to make posts smart ar*e even when they post really interesting information.
[Showsy,
I know this is your hope and I’m not one that likes to trample the dreams of the simple and bewildered. However, I’m not sure you and a dialysis machine is the basis of a loving co habitation.]
You know full well that same sex marriage will be legal in Australia before the end of this decade.
The fact you know this, but are still opposed to same sex marriage, is one of the reasons you consume too much alcohol.
As always you’re on the losing side of history.
[as they say..”some of my best friends are…]
some also say “with friends like that who needs enemies”
just saying 🙂
Showy,
Spoken like a true Republican.
Showsy,
I’ve got a thousand Beta players. Get in now. They are going to storm the market and take over!
Showsy,
Don’t forget, there’s only a market for about 5 Compuers world wide.
[Showy,
Spoken like a true Republican.]
LOLOLOLOOOLOL
Are you a monarchist now?
No wonder you are pissed all the time. You kind of forgot that it is in the Labor platform that Australia should become a republic!
[Showsy,
I’ve got a thousand Beta players. Get in now. They are going to storm the market and take over!]
This makes no sense whatsoever.
Clearly you have been drinking constantly for the last week.
confessions and sprocket
If you are still around. Lawyer on twitter has a recommemdation for Slipper
Ask for a Stay of the appeal until security for costs are paid @GeorgeBludger Then apply to strike out the appeal austlii.edu.au/au/cases/qld/Q…
If the Appellant does not pay the security for costs @GeorgeBludger Then Respondent applies to strike out the appeal austlii.edu.au/au/cases/qld/Q…
@PeterSlipperMP Ask 4 Stay of appeal until security for costs paid. Apply to strike out appeal tinyurl.com/b4slv8c @BowlerBarrister
[Showsy,
Don’t forget, there’s only a market for about 5 Compuers world wide.]
Time to get up from your pool of vomit G.G. and have a shower.
Surely even you can shower yourself at least once a week?
[“with friends like that who needs enem
ieas”]deblonay@2533
Thanks deblonay.
Just keep reminding William so he doesn’t get influenced by the howling mob.
Funny how some of them accuse me of being a bully. 😆
Showsy,
You’re the expert at vomit.
So, do tell.
In the meantime, remember Showsy………
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQwWp98IuGE
victoria:
What does that mean?
WeWantPaul@2534
Life would be dull if we all agreed with each other all the time.
I think it was Arthur Calwell who once said “There are only 2 places they don’t have arguments, the Liberal Party and the cemetery.” 😀
Well that’s changed now!
The point is, if you are not exposed to different opinions you can never learn and change. I just don’t get some people on this and another blog.
[In the meantime, remember Showsy………
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQwWp98IuGE ]
Is this link Piss Up a Rope by Ween?
Because if it isn’t, I’m not loading it.
confessions
Slipper applies for stay of appeal which essentially means suspending court proceedings until his application for security of his costs has been made. Then if appellant Ashby does not pay security for these costs, Slipper apply to have Ashby’s appeal struck out.
Victoria,
That would be a very interesting outcome
Let the games commence
Jeffemu
As Slipper has already applied for his costs to be paid by Ashby and Harmer, this is the logical course of action by him.
On that note, night all.
So there’s still a ways to go yet?
There will be no Ashby inquiry while it’s still all so uncertain and hanging over current heads.
Sad to say.
Night vic.
http://bit.ly/11mpZUB (click google link)
[Sweeping powers for abuse inquiry
BY: DAVID CROWE, NATIONAL AFFAIRS EDITOR
From: The Australian
January 12, 2013 12:00AM
SWEEPING legal powers have been granted to the royal commission into child sexual abuse, in a move to hear from as many victims as possible, despite victims’ concerns about waiving confidentiality deeds on events dating back decades.
The powers will be backed by legislative changes within weeks to maximise the commission’s ability to hold hearings across the country, including “informal” sessions to hear from those who are wary of courtroom formalities.]
Infographic
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2013/01/11/1226552/320304-aus-news-file-royal-commission.pdf
http://bit.ly/XpPu2s (click google link)
[Growing cabinet push for dole rise
BY: PATRICIA KARVELAS
From: The Australian
January 12, 2013 12:00AM
THE Gillard government has begun modelling a suite of measures to assist those on unemployment benefits, amid a growing cabinet push to deliver an increase to the Newstart Allowance payment in this year’s budget.
The move is designed to help the most vulnerable people on Newstart, including single mothers who were forced on to the payment after Labor tightened eligibility for the single-parent payment.]
http://bit.ly/WIL6J7 (click google link)
[Tony Abbott won’t gain much bounce in carbon tax stance
LAUREN WILSON
From: The Australian
January 12, 2013 12:00AM
THE carbon tax has failed to incite a tsunami of complaints from the public, with new data from the consumer watchdog indicating Labor’s policy may have fallen off the public radar.]
Looking at when Newspoll might start up again. In the past the earliest start date for the first Newspoll polling period of the year has been 13 Jan, and that has been the start date four times.
On that basis it would be surprising to see one out after this weekend but not surprising if one comes out after next weekend.
I don’t consider the argument of the Lauren Wilson article to be logically sound. Low consumer watchdog complaint levels do not necessarily indicate satisfaction about the tax. They are likely to be more to do with satisfaction (or not) with how the “tax” has been implemented, including by business.
Also even if the issue of the tax itself has no direct traction in the election campaign (which wouldn’t surprise me at all), the issue of the so-called “broken promise” over it may well.
Bemused re attacks on you
________________
I see just now(post 2545) that GG has likened Showsy comments to vomit !
WOW
but I recall when he said you were a “piece of excrement ” do you remember that?
It does tend to lower the tone of this blog
Blimey, what’s up?
[It does tend to lower the tone of this blog]
So why continue to guffaw over it, thus perpetuating the lowered tone?
Unless you yourself want to persist with the lowered tone bemused brings to this online space.
BTW Bemused… I have been banned by” Menzies House”for suggesting that some of their Tea-Party type contributors,are “fascist like”
Now is that fair ??
whatever happened to Free Speech on that blog
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ofarrell-decides-but-packers-man-has-last-word-20130111-2clc7.html
[O’Farrell decides, but Packer’s man has last word
January 12, 2013
Sean Nicholls
SYDNEY MORNING HERALD STATE POLITICAL EDITOR
A SENIOR executive at James Packer’s Crown Limited was allowed to rewrite a media release before it was issued by the Premier, Barry O’Farrell, announcing initial government backing of the company’s plans for a $1 billion hotel and casino at Barangaroo.
The chief executive of Crown, Rowen Craigie, was emailed a draft media release by the head of Mr O’Farrell’s department, Chris Eccles, on October 24, the night before Mr O’Farrell publicly announced Crown’s proposal would move to the next stage of the government’s assessment process.]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/heatwave-and-three-months-of-low-rainfall-have-sucked-the-nation-dry-20130111-2cled.html
[Heatwave and three months of low rainfall have sucked the nation dry
January 12, 2013
Peter Hannam
Carbon economy editor
A LEADING weather researcher says widespread parts of the country are at risk of bushfires, as Australia’s great heatwave of 2013 and low rainfall have left some regions ”primed” to burn.
The weather bureau’s rainfall maps for the past three months show that nearly all the southern and eastern parts of the country have posted below or very-much-below average rainfall.
And the past fortnight of record-breaking heat across much of the continent meant fuel loads in bushfire areas were ”trumping the situation” due to lowering moisture levels, said Jeff Kepert, the head of the high impact weather research team at the Bureau of Meteorology.]
Not sure about all the spiteful crap spat at each other. It does no-one any good. All the petty one-upmanship and the peacocky know-it-all-ship is utterly boring. I know a lot and here it is bores the rest of us to death. Some of us read books and find all of these arguments old hat and frankly trite and humourless. The grand irony is that several posters are obviously smart but they are dumb about how to get their message across. They have no felicity for language and end up sounding like Sylvia Plath reading directly from a phone book after 14 reds.
Dorrie Evans re spats
__I agree Slyvia Plath could be a bore(at least when m I dined with her she was )
I thought however the reading from the ‘phone book … that was Evelyn Waugh?(though I did like”Brideshead”)
There are lovely ones here of course and I love them for being so human. Is it BK who brings us the wrap of the morning papers? That is just so gorgeous. That someone would take time out from their life to let us know what is worth perusing is utterly charming and gives me hope. I am not impressed with show ponies and people who flood their prose with their own self importance. For me there is nothing more egregious than a fool who is armed to the back teeth with knowledge. They tend to blather so and make my ears bleed with their ‘learning’
“Nazi Dreamtime”… The Book of the Year
Dorrie Evens do read it
____________
Absolutely the most impressive work of Australian history in a long time…David Bird’s book”Mazi Dreamtime” a remarkable history of Nazi activities and synpathisers in Oz in the 1930ies and the role and banning ofthe “Australia First ” movement in 1942 by the Curtin Govt
Do read it a marvellous book on a hitherto ignored psrt of our histroy… a classic of it’s kind
Two films about the Palestinian struggle nominated for the Oscars(Docos)
One by a Jewish /Israeli)producer and the other by a Pelestinian about a Palestinian family and the way they are broken by the occupation
Both said to be startling and shocking
Someone spoke of a new mood in the USA ..re this issue.snd these films may do much to help
Occupations always dehumanize the occupiers too…Think of wartime Europe/Ireland/India
This review from NY Mondoweiss site
http://mondoweiss.net/2013/01/gatekeepers-nominated-documenatry.html
I’ll try to hunt it down deblonay. I am mostly placid but can be enraged at the drop of a hat lol. Most of the bruisers here though would leave me for dead. Such horrid viciousness is so sad. It is not fun or even humourous. Politics is not for the faint hearted I’m afraid. Revealingly, the tone of invective is most unsophisticated on all sides.
Dorrie Evans re “Nazi Dreamtime”
________
It’s now in the good bookshops(pricey at $44 but worth it)
Try to get your local library to get it anyway
It is a book that fills a great space in Modern Australian history…a subject I once taught
a must read !!
Dorrie Evans is a troll.
“Nazi Dreamtime”..the fate of Tasmania after a Japoanese victory
_____________
full of amazing info
There was a Nazi Diplomat in Sydney at the Consulate there until war in 1939..by name Rudolf Asmis
He was sent back to Germany as was done… and occupied a senior post there…seems to have died or disappeared in 1945
But he retained an interest in Australi
In 1943 he did a paper suggesting to his bosses that if the Japanese conquered Australia,they should depoprt all Tasmanians to mthe mainland……and then settle it with Australian of German origin from places like the Barossa Velley
Few such people were Nazis by the way
Nothing came of that plan for obvious reasons.
It appears Hitler had no ideas or pl;ans fopr Australia…his extensive private Library captured by the Russians in Berlin in 1945,contained no books on Austral;ia…so we did get a mwention by him !
Dorrie Evans in Not a Troll
Dorrie Evans is a famous actress (though she must be a great age…) like Dame Judy Dench or Dame Maggie Smith…grand old troupers the lot of them
Is Dorrie Evans a Dame(perhaps she should be ) rather like Melba was
At work with deblonay.