GhostWhoVotes reports that the final Nielsen poll for the year has come in above Labor’s recent form, with the Coalition leading 52-48, down from 53-47 last month. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 35%, with the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens down two to 10%. Tony Abbott has reached a new low on net approval from Nielsen with approval down two to 34% and disapproval up three to an alarming 63%, which is apparently the second highest disapproval rating for an Opposition Leader in Nielsen’s 40-year history. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are little changed at 46% approval (down one) and 50% disapproval (up two), while her lead as preferred prime minister is at 50-40, compared with 51-42 last time. There is also heartening news for Labor with questions on the AWU affair, with 47% approving of Julia Gillard’s handling of the matter against 40% disapproval, while the respective figures for Tony Abbott are 24% and 64%. Full tables here.
There has also been a ReachTel automated phone poll of 661 respondents published today, commissioned by Sydney Morning Herald, which suggests Mal Brough would win a clear victory as LNP candidate for the Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax despite his recent bruising in the Ashby affair. The poll shows Brough with 48.4% on the primary vote against a derisory for 2.7% for Peter Slipper, who is publicly still committed to seeking re-election as an independent, 21.2% for Labor, 11.7% for the Greens and 7.4% for Katter’s Australian Party. Brough was viewed favourably by 41.8% of respondents against 34.0% unfavourable, while the respective figures for Slipper were 6.9% and 75.5%. Brough’s involvement in the Ashby matter made 37.3% of respondents less likely to vote for him, against 39.8% for no difference. A substantial cohort of very curious people, apparently amounting to 22.6% of the Fisher electorate, say it has made them more likely to vote for him.
UPDATE (17/12/2012): The final Essential Research for the year has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second successive week to extend its lead to 55-45, the highest in nearly three months. However, the primary votes have emerged from rounding unchanged on last week, with Labor on 36%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 8%. Further questions find that 2012 was perceived as being a good year for banks and miners, an uninspiring one for the Australian economy and “you and your family”, a poor one for the media, farming, unions, the environment and “the average Australian”, and a shocker for small business and “Australian politics in general”. Labor, Liberal, Greens and independents were all rated as having had a bad year, Labor emerging the worst. Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott rated equally poorly, with opinion evenly divided as to whether either will make it to the election.
Respondents were asked which of seven deignated political events was the year’s most significant, with the implementation of the carbon tax well ahead on 41%. The other results were 14% for the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge, 9% for the reopening of offshore detention centres, 7% for AWU slush fund allegations, 6% for Julia Gillard’s sexism speech, 5% for “bipartisan support for the National Disability Insurance Scheme” and 5% for Australia winning a seat on the United Nations Security Council. Essential Research will next report on January 14.
UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes reports Nielsen further finds 36% of respondents think themselves better off than two years against 45% worse off, with supporters of Labor (50% better, 29% worse) and the Greens (52% better, 26% worse) typically taking a rosier view than those of the Coalition (23% better, 61% worse).
UPDATE 3 (19/12/12): The final Morgan face-to-face poll for the year, covering the last two weekends’ surveying, is a good one for Labor, who are up four points to 40% on the primary vote (their best result since February last year), while the Coalition is down three to 37.5% (their worst this term) with the Greens up 1.5% to 12.5%. Two-party preferred is 52.5-47.5 in Labor’s favour on respondent-allocated preferences, which precisely reverses the position in the previous poll, while previous election preferences have Labor turning a 50.5-49.5 deficit into a 53.5-46.5 lead. These are respectively Labor’s best results since December 2010 and February 2011.
Am i paranoid or is it something more sinister?
The latest newspoll was bad for Julia, covered extensively by AM on the ABC. The latest neilsen poll bad for Tony, nothing, zilch, zero about it on the AM programme, on their ABC.
The 3AW news services were all over the 63% disaproval rating for Abbott. That’s the big problem for him now. It is widely perceived that he is very unpopular with the punters and I don’t think there is anything he can do to shake that before the election.
If Samson Tone is growing his hair will Julia do a Delilah?
Ducky
😀
Like all ad-hominem attacks they make very little difference at least not alone
Slipper-gate, AWUgate will not change polls – the best/worst they will so is reinforce existing perceptions
I suspect it is an overemphasis on behavior of political analysts too focused on USA and UK politics.
Seems to me that attack just do not work in Australia – never have.
Australian voters – perhaps because it is compulsory, just are barely influenced by ad-hominem attacks
It is as if they expect politicians to be a little bit crooked and to sleep around a bit so it makes no impact when the press scream sex scandal or minor corruption.
Think Gorton and Ainslie Gotto or “George Sinclair” or Phil Lynch cooking the books
Slipper looks goofy and a loser. Forget the whole sex scandal thingy – he looks silly and that for Australians this is far, far worse than being crooked or getting into every passing skirt or indeed pair of trousers.
joe2 @# 137
Five years ago someone get hurt having a root in a motel on a work trip.
Luvly!
So Joe what is you point?
In the circumstances outlines when should an employee get workers comp?
zoonster
The fact the coalition have not to date sought an inquiry, and are in fact behaving as if Ashby is one of theirs, tells me that they are indeed up to their necks in it.
What a pleasure to have John “Roy” Doyle standing in for Fran: someone who actually listens to answers to his questions.
SA 45-55 and NSW 49-51?
Yeah, nah.
After bashing the civil servive CanJoh is turning his attention to mother nature.
[National parks to lose protection under legislative changes
THE State Government has stepped away from fundamental national park protection introduced by a conservative government more than 50 years ago.
It is set to ignore the cardinal principle, which determines that national parks have the highest protection of all land classes, by approving recreational activities and introducing 30-year leases for resort developments.]
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/national-parks-to-lose-protection-under-legislative-changes/story-e6freoof-1226537907740
will the media start calling for a new lotto
those that made their beds of thorns will now have to lay in them
leone:
Just watched that video. So it would seem we weren’t imagining orange as the new black after all. Abbott growing his hair longer and taking to the spray tan to soften his image!
You can put lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig!
leone
I also heard a few days ago that Abbott had a walking coach to try and straighten out his exaggerated simian gait.
i though the video this morning of latika bourke
was another pathetic biased reporting to favour the coalition
glory
i mento\ioned my scroll by list
you r in it
BK
It is not working thus far. Saw some vision of Abbott in London. His simian gait is as pronounced as ever
‘Slipper looks goofy and a loser…he looks silly and that for Australians this is far, far worse than being crooked…’
Explain Howard’s four election wins then.
[victoria
Posted Monday, December 17, 2012 at 8:38 am | PERMALINK
OPT
Mod lib disappeared like a puff of smoke when the Nielsen results came through]
Taking with him the other odious one NewToIt or whatever IT masquerades under, guess IT was hoping for a bad result so IT could gloat. But who did the gloat not them 😀
BK:
I was just about to say that, after seeing footage of him in London, they should try to do something about the way he walks.
He looks like a thug looking for his next fight.
[The NSW electorate feels financially duped. I imagine most would not have minded pulling their belts in if it was necessary. However, to have seen the Liberal/Nationals Coalition here slashing and burning our TAFE system, other Special Education class aides in schools, and a myriad of other services gone, because they said they were $600 Million in State Budget Deficit, only for the Auditor General to come out and say they were actually $1 Billion to the good because the Coalition Treasurer, Bruce Baird’s son Mike Baird, had ‘miscalculated’ the figures. Well that was simply the worst of affronts to the electorate.]
And, after all that slashing and sacking and cost cutting, after being told we just can’t afford school support staff or fire stations open at night Fatty finds $3 million to bring Manchester United out for one game. That’s not going down too well among the staff at the local Department of Education office, where jobs are under threat or at the local TAFE.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/premiers-league-as-ofarrell-scores-manchester-united-sydney-visit/story-fndo28a5-1226534034603
mari
It was so obvious too!!
My say
Because I post about reality?
Of course the MSM will come in hard if there’s a $1 deficit. Abbott’s & Hockey’s airy declarations of how they’d get into surplus in a week or two have long been unremarked by their media supporters. Like everything else in the coalition “policy” armoury there’s no attention paid, enabling them as always to take any position at any time.
….meanwhile, Meguire Bobster wins the State-The-Bleeding Obvious Stuff-About-Latika-and-Bias-In-The-One-Post-Award.
Good Morning
“@sortius: I have finally received the originals of the Slipper press release from Abbott’s office. Update to follow.”
Now wicket keeper Coorey has something to say about Brough
Readers of The Australian Financial Review will be familiar with Mark Ludlow as the paper’s Queensland political correspondent.
[Less known is that Ludlow was once a fearsome fast bowler, capable of perfect line and length, seam bolt upright.
Early each year, when the Canberra press gallery would play social cricket matches against the Coalition and Labor, Ludlow would open the bowling.]
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/brough_caught_on_the_off_side_f1CQl7Xet5JwFbYWP3avlO
lol rosmeour
good to see you still got your sense of humour
leone @ 142
[So that explains the dye and the comb-over and the spray tan. And it’s not working. So what will Tony do next? Any suggestions for the embattled LOTO in his quest to have women throw their votes at him? Pheromones perhaps?]
It looks to me more like Abbott is using a too liberal application of the infamous ‘Wally Lewis Hair Paint!’
Here are the government’s lines about Abbott for the coming year:
[”Tony Abbott has gone backwards this year,” said the Herald’s pollster, John Stirton of Nielsen. ”The lesson of the year seems to be that on two of the big issues – the carbon tax and the AWU affair – Tony Abbott overstretched.
”He said the carbon tax would be much worse than the experience voters have had with it and he implied or said that Julia Gillard’s behaviour 20 years ago was much worse than he’s been able to make a case for.”]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/attack-dog-methods-bite-coalition-leader-20121216-2bhkp.html#ixzz2FFueMKis
He over-reaches and goes too far. He’s prone to bouts of hysteria instead of calm, reasoned decision-making.
victoria:
Again, why are we only hearing this stuff now when Brough is under the pump? It would’ve given us context (no pun intended) if this was reported at the time we first learned Brough was up to his neck in the Ashby affair.
Tones hair is like Kate Carnall’s Canberra Sports Stadium – sprayed on.
confessions
We are only hearing it now because the Judgment brought down excoriates Brough.
confessions
Unsaid in that is the unpalatable truth for the LNP. All that is true of the LNP policies and their approach to politics.
When voters realise this bye bye LNP election win.
What caused the US massacre ? The odius Pies has THE answer. Single mothers. I won’t provide the link but here are some of his gems.
[Guns are part of the US scenery…..The more difficult issue is the breakdown in the US culture…….
It has not gone unnoticed that this murderer came from a broken home..as have almost every mass killer in modern times. …
This is not to say that most single mothers are not capable of raising a child alone, just that the record shows that killers are more likely to have been raised in single parent homes. ]
“@archiearchive: RT @TonyIKnow: Latika Bourke understands statistics. Bwahahahaha. Most of her interviews fall within a margin of error. #auspol”
Abbott taking walking classes – what a hoot. Instead of being a male chauvinist pig with an aggressive ape-like strut he’ll be a mincing male chauvinist pig.
I’m told he’s done so well in deportment class that he’s already been offered a spot at next year’s Sydney Mardi Gras with this lot –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QAd2p-uQ5g
What Peta probably wants is a complete metamorphosis. Kafka’s short story comes to mind.
poroti
I would not even piss on pies if he was on fire.
“@AsiaSentry: #China. The focus on firmly promoting “opening up” is a new marker and may signal that capital account liberalisation is a priority.”
guytaur:
Also glaringly obvious in all of this is just how much our press gallery tries to distort the truth to suit whatever narrative they are trying to run.
On twitter
[The brilliant & hard hitting journalism of Latika Bourke failed to ask 1 single question on Asbby but discovers plot to grow Abbott’s hair.]
Brough lbw Ludlow and retired very hurt.
Coorey has hidden depths, it seems.
Sortius has concluded his investigations. He has updated his blog
http://sortius-is-a-geek.com/?p=2626
[To continue Malcolm Farr’s cricket metaphor…
Yes and Tony is a tosser.]
Does the member for Sturt bat left handed?
The Nielson state based breakdowns (small sample) are interesting…
We probably can’t take too much from them. The sample size for Victoria would be about 350, so the margin of error would be about 5%. For South Australia (sample size about 100), the margin or error would be about 10%.
There is the story about W.G.
A good ball remove his off-bail. Picked up the bail and replaced it: “Windy, isn’t it!”
Rosemour
It is a fine line between being strong and being goofy.
Howard one PM was not seen as a loser and not especially goofy – he was when younger
My real point is that for Australian voters being laughed at is more serious than being corrupt.
Actually thinking Howard – the chaser boys by making a fool of Howard sealed his fate.
Here is the update
[[UPDATE6]: (I swear, this is the last one) I have been sent the original, unedited PDFs by James Hutchinson (@j_hutch) from AFR. Looking at the PDFs & the date formatting, it seems the date output by MS Word 2007 has defaulted to a “null time zone” format, meaning it is timestampped with the local time. As I have stated in UPDATE3, mcdulingg’s computer’s time zone was set to +10hrs, as we can see from the PDF output on the same day via Adobe Distiller. This means that the unedited document is showing +10hrs time zone on the originals, and not, as Abbott has claimed, 10 hours out.
Original PDF Metadata from Slipper Release.
Some testing by twitter users with Word 2007 & Adobe Acrobat have confirmed that a file output by Word 2007 with a null time zone will be reverted to Zulu time upon being edited & saved in Adobe Acrobat as there is no timezone information available so Acrobat assumes Zulu time. This does mean that the original files were output at 23:08 (& 32 seconds) on 20/04/12 in the AEST (+10hrs) time zone, meaning Abbott’s office was not only aware of the impending report from News LTD, but had enough time to prepare a statement the night before.
Yes, this has confirmed my suspicions that the edited file was not showing the correct time zone, and while more than likely this was not changed for malicious reasons, it does show that Abbott’s “10 hours out” to be bullshit on so many levels. It’s clear that Abbott was made aware of much more than he’s letting on]
Is Abbott in London for a hair transplant? Perhaps he should go the full monty and do a complete Warnie, and drop Margie for an ageing movie celebrity.