ReachTEL: 55-45 to LNP in Queensland

The monthly ReachTEL poll of state voting intention in Queensland shows little movement in voting intention despite the defections of three LNP parliamentarians, although Campbell Newman’s personal ratings continue to worsen.

ReachTEL’s monthly automated phone poll of state voting intention in Queensland, conducted for Channel Seven, has the Liberal National Party essentially unchanged on a month ago at 41.9%, Labor down two points to 32.1%, Katter’s Australian Party (on which more below) up three to a new high of 12.1% and the Greens down more than a point to 8.2%. ReachTEL doesn’t publish two-party preferred results, but my own reading of preference flows from the state election converts this into an LNP lead of 55-45. Campbell Newman’s combined very good and good rating is up two points to 38.2%, but his very poor rating alone is up nearly four points to a new high of 36.7%, which reaches 51.0% when combined with his poor rating. Annastacia Palaszczuk is down from 28.7% to 27.9% on very good/good and up from 29.1% to 29.5% on very poor/poor. The poll also finds 50.5% saying they are less likely to vote LNP at the federal election on account of the Newman government’s performance against 31.0% for more likely, compared with 45.1% and 33.9% when the question was last asked two months ago.

The period since the last such poll has seen no fewer than three defections by LNP parliamentarians, which have changed the numbers in the chamber from LNP 78, Labor 7, KAP 2 and independents 2 to LNP 75, Labor 7, KAP 3 and independents 4. Condamine MP Ray Hooper, who was first elected as an independent at the 2001 election and joined the Nationals later that year, has joined Katter’s Australian Party and assumed its parliamentary leadership. A further two MPs, Alex Douglas from the Gold Coast seat of Gaven and Carl Judge from Yeerongpilly, have quit over disputes with the LNP leadership and now sit as independents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

13 comments on “ReachTEL: 55-45 to LNP in Queensland”

    [Half of state less likely to vote LNP: poll
    December 16, 2012 – 7:16PM
    Bridie Jabour reporter

    Half of Queenslanders are less likely to vote for the LNP in the federal election next year because of the performance of the Newman Government, new polling shows.

    The ReachTEL poll, commissoned by Channel 7, surveyed 1134 people on Friday night and asked, ‘‘Has the performance of the Newman State Government made you more or less likely to vote for the LNP at the upcoming Federal election?’’]

  2. A former MP tells me Labor could pick up a bundle of seats in Queensland if Rudd was leader.

    Please please please make this so. Solves the problem of Queensland and the problem of Rudd federally.


  3. Another thing to wonder about is what sort of job Annastasia is doing as Opposition Leader.

    Is she largely invisible/ignored? Or does she get some attention in criticizing the Newman government?

    It would be nice if she manages to close the gap in the polls even more next year. But I don’t know if she’s capable of doing so.

  4. They are a party of 7. How much impact can the Opposition have? Annastacia Palaszczuk is a superb local member, and a gifted politician (like her father), but how much impact can she really have in a team of 7 opposing a Government of 70+? And in a unicameral parliament to boot.


  5. Well, Mike Rann did a pretty good job in South Australia from 1994, with a team of 10 up against 37 in the lower house for example, wiping out the Liberal majority after 1 term. So it can be done (even if there were 9 Labor MLC’s on top of that).

    I may be blindly optimistic, but I don’t think it’s impossible for her to rebuild the party.

    Although winning in 2015 will be nothing short of a miracle, getting the numbers back up to about 30-40 might be more of a realistic goal, and taking down Newman if he stays in Ashgrove would be another nice touch. Then bring on a tough battle for 2018.

  6. I don’t disagree. I have no doubt that Qld will see a massive re-alignment at the next election. It is already clear that there is a lot of buyer’s remorse going on in Queensland. There are a huge number of dunder-heads in the LNP who never believed they would or should have been elected to parliament.

    I just think the re-alignment will be driven and influenced more by what the Premier Campbell Newman and his house of morans does than what the Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk does.

    In other words, “despite” her, not “because” of her.


  7. DR

    Agree with you

    Cannot do is the biggest ALP asset

    Anastasia is OK but she is not especially charismatic. She will not by herself win back much but with the assistance of Cannot do – Well!!!!

  8. Von K

    There is a bit of a difference between 10/47 and 7/89, especially with no uppoer house support.

    Also Labor lost many council positions AND we have very few Federal MPs

  9. Of course I’m aware that there is a bit of a difference.

    However Labor’s recovered a lot of ground in a bit under a year and just because there isn’t much elected Labor positions right now, doesn’t mean that with hard work from all supporters that there will be the support necessary to vote plenty back in at the next election.

    Or is the Labor plan for 2015 to just give up?

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