GhostWhoVotes reports that the final Nielsen poll for the year has come in above Labor’s recent form, with the Coalition leading 52-48, down from 53-47 last month. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 35%, with the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens down two to 10%. Tony Abbott has reached a new low on net approval from Nielsen with approval down two to 34% and disapproval up three to an alarming 63%, which is apparently the second highest disapproval rating for an Opposition Leader in Nielsen’s 40-year history. Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are little changed at 46% approval (down one) and 50% disapproval (up two), while her lead as preferred prime minister is at 50-40, compared with 51-42 last time. There is also heartening news for Labor with questions on the AWU affair, with 47% approving of Julia Gillard’s handling of the matter against 40% disapproval, while the respective figures for Tony Abbott are 24% and 64%. Full tables here.
There has also been a ReachTel automated phone poll of 661 respondents published today, commissioned by Sydney Morning Herald, which suggests Mal Brough would win a clear victory as LNP candidate for the Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax despite his recent bruising in the Ashby affair. The poll shows Brough with 48.4% on the primary vote against a derisory for 2.7% for Peter Slipper, who is publicly still committed to seeking re-election as an independent, 21.2% for Labor, 11.7% for the Greens and 7.4% for Katter’s Australian Party. Brough was viewed favourably by 41.8% of respondents against 34.0% unfavourable, while the respective figures for Slipper were 6.9% and 75.5%. Brough’s involvement in the Ashby matter made 37.3% of respondents less likely to vote for him, against 39.8% for no difference. A substantial cohort of very curious people, apparently amounting to 22.6% of the Fisher electorate, say it has made them more likely to vote for him.
UPDATE (17/12/2012): The final Essential Research for the year has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second successive week to extend its lead to 55-45, the highest in nearly three months. However, the primary votes have emerged from rounding unchanged on last week, with Labor on 36%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 8%. Further questions find that 2012 was perceived as being a good year for banks and miners, an uninspiring one for the Australian economy and “you and your family”, a poor one for the media, farming, unions, the environment and “the average Australian”, and a shocker for small business and “Australian politics in general”. Labor, Liberal, Greens and independents were all rated as having had a bad year, Labor emerging the worst. Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott rated equally poorly, with opinion evenly divided as to whether either will make it to the election.
Respondents were asked which of seven deignated political events was the year’s most significant, with the implementation of the carbon tax well ahead on 41%. The other results were 14% for the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge, 9% for the reopening of offshore detention centres, 7% for AWU slush fund allegations, 6% for Julia Gillard’s sexism speech, 5% for “bipartisan support for the National Disability Insurance Scheme” and 5% for Australia winning a seat on the United Nations Security Council. Essential Research will next report on January 14.
UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes reports Nielsen further finds 36% of respondents think themselves better off than two years against 45% worse off, with supporters of Labor (50% better, 29% worse) and the Greens (52% better, 26% worse) typically taking a rosier view than those of the Coalition (23% better, 61% worse).
UPDATE 3 (19/12/12): The final Morgan face-to-face poll for the year, covering the last two weekends’ surveying, is a good one for Labor, who are up four points to 40% on the primary vote (their best result since February last year), while the Coalition is down three to 37.5% (their worst this term) with the Greens up 1.5% to 12.5%. Two-party preferred is 52.5-47.5 in Labor’s favour on respondent-allocated preferences, which precisely reverses the position in the previous poll, while previous election preferences have Labor turning a 50.5-49.5 deficit into a 53.5-46.5 lead. These are respectively Labor’s best results since December 2010 and February 2011.
zoomster
I believe the Brough/LNP/Abbott Ashby saga is potentially a disaster for them, but as you say the msm and our very own psephos believes we should move on
Inquiry NOW
victoria
Every election campaign I ignore the advice of people like psephos.
Every election campaign I do better than they expect.
The latest 2PP 52-48 is the same as Rudd achieved when he was knifed.
Time for Gillard to stand down.
Phesphos hasn’t actually got much of a clue, he just has the ability to sound as though he has.
zoomster
I gather that you are of the view that the govt should continue to pressure the Libs re Brough and their involvement in this setup?
victoria
well i think if the public have taken notice with the small amounts of writing , they people will be noting
all the libs say now, and it will suddenly dawn
on them what they said about other issues
like the carbon price,
and no policies ext, if this story had been front page
well what then
the video you posted about the front page during the sage with the awu and pm ihad no idea
that was happeing we just dont see that here
the paper here seems to have gone all rurual and lovley stories,
which in the long run could be good for labor localy
but no front page headlines and those awful pictures of the the pm that you get over there,
of course i may have missed something
The US Race War is the elephant in the room of gun massacres.
On the front page of today’s ‘Canberra Times’ there is a photo of the the blond haired, blue-eyed ‘angel’ who was shot to death at Newport. She has also featured disproportionately in teev footage.
I haven’t seen a lot about race and guns but afro-american kids are five times more likely to be shot to death than their white peers.
My answer to the ‘Why?’ about the Newport massacre is that it is, at one level, both complicated and complex. But, at another level, it is also fairly simple: Gun massacres are the acceptable collateral damage of the US Race War.
http://www.bradycampaign.org/facts/gunviolence/factsethnicity/
The sample size is 1,400. The margin of error is therefore about 2.7%. In fact, the numbers for primary vote and 2PP in the Nielsen poll have been quite steady since September – all within the margin of error (assuming that they all a sample size of 1,000 to 2,000). Still, a significant improvement for the ALP since mid year from a position of a NSW- or Qld-style thumping to a ‘respectable’ loss. Hopefully they can go up from there, but 2013 is going to be a very tough year.
i agree with zoomster
The pro coalition and news ltd/ abbott coalition would hope the governemnt goes easy
Labor and their supporters need to keep the foot on news ltd/abbott coalition throat
no not release it , until they get answers
adrian
well being new you may not be aware that phes does
have a web site of his own, he does big work on elections over seas as well . the web site is open for all to see,
i am only saying the above to help our your knowledge
being new
Labor and their supporters need to keep the foot on news ltd/abbott coalition throat
do not release it , until they get answers
I agree Adrian @ 105 – Phespos doesn’t really comment here, he just make pronouncements.
my say
The reportage on Slipper at the time of the claim being filed, was intense and relentless here in Vic, NSW and QLD.
srteve 777
the election will not held in the same way as opinion polling
the election will be held
1- policies
2- who do people trust more as a better government
LABOR wins 🙂
i think feeny
llves jokes
enjoy the day
must go if i dont i will be panicking big time by friday
Boerwar
[Let’s have an economist doing a cost/benefit study of the law industry and the Canberra bushfire.]
They did one in New Zealand years ago looking at personal injury. They found it was cheaper to have universal cover with automatic compensation than to let the legal system have anything to do with it. It resulted in the NZ Accident Compensation Scheme. I’m not sure how it is now but the reason it was established was clear.
ps having said that
christmas should not be about panic to get stuff done.
food wise give give me a bowl prawns and some
good wine and that would do me
and good company and lots of cuddle handedout
my say
Sounds like a great recipe for a successful xmas!
Boerwar @ 108 …Gun massacres are the acceptable collateral damage of the US Race War.
The NRA and its supporters, including apparently nearly all Republican Representatives and Senators but also many Democrats, apparently believe that gun massacres are acceptable collateral damage for allowing the ‘Right to bear arms’.
steve
when ever i see a good poll for us which has not always been the case latley
i dont bother to look at the detail
i just smile
All i can say is wow. Farr on Brough. Must read.
[The occasion was a social cricket match Brough ruined for many by disputing an umpire’s decision in a manner which would have seen him suspended if not expelled from any decent sporting club.
I was the abused umpire and witnesses to Brough’s inelegant behavior—it went on for hours. I have been reminded of it by last week’s Federal Court decision to dismiss James Ashby’s action against Peter Slipper as an abuse of legal process. Brough was deeply involved in that case.]
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/mal-brough-and-the-art-of-losing-gracefully/
Boerwar @# 100
Five years ago someone get hurt having a root in a motel on a work trip.
Legal proceedings for this one are reported to be nearly finlised. Just how much should taxpayers pay for someone’s ele’s buggered up root?
This is a misinterpretation of what happened.
The Lady involved was sent to a regional center for a short period of time. She was away from he usual place of work and her usual abode. The court basically said that as long as any injury was not self inflicted or was not acquired while doing something illegal (sex is not illegal) than she was for all intent and purposes at work for the purposes of workers compensation all the time she was there.
So if she fell over in the street going for a walk at midnight, or she fell over in the shower or as in this case she was injured while having sex then she is covered.
Seems rather simple and logical to me.
Surely determining an employee’s rights while at work is something worthwhile.
Morning all.
[There is also heartening news for Labor with questions on the AWU affair, with 47% approving of Julia Gillard’s handling of the matter against 40% disapproval, while the respective figures for Tony Abbott are 24% and 64%. ]
I expected the AWU affair would end up like this, with voters repulsed by the over-reaching of the coalition, just not this soon!
With any luck Team Abbott are having a good, hard look at these results, and will drop the AWU hysteria once and for all. I ain’t holding my breath though.
About the US and guns – a huge, full colour ad for a Christmas gun sale complete with an ‘Enter to win a free firearm’ competition on the same page as a long article about the Newtown shooting. I just don’t know what to say..
Here are a couple of links that gives you a flavour of the pro gun nuts and why nothing will change. One’s from a church and another from a new age health food site !!!
[Mercy Seat Christian Church
Down through history, governments have disarmed their citizens only to tyrannize those citizens once they were disarmed.
GOVERNMENT GENOCIDE CAMPAIGNS AND THE
“GUN CONTROL” LAWS THAT HELPED SLAUGHTER 56 MILLION PEOPLE]
http://www.mercyseat.net/gun_genocide.html
[To stop school shootings, we should let criminals have all the guns, argue gun control advocates]
http://www.naturalnews.com/038355_gun_control_school_shootings_criminals.html#ixzz2FFjJ1N3C
[If guns kill people, then spoons made people fat. There is a reason why there is anti gun propaganda. The US government wants us disarmed. With an armed population. Obama cannot put full blown socialism in place. ]
http://www.thelonestarwatchdog.com/2012/12/16/prevaiing-anainst-the-anti-gun-propaganda-with-the-facts/
The Nielson state based breakdowns (small sample) are interesting:
NSW and Qld unchanged since 2010 election
WA swing to Labor (+1 seat, Hasluck)
Vic away from Labor (-5%) SA (-8% 2pp) equating to 3 seats (Vic) and 2 seats (SA) lost
Hardly a landslide loss. Is the media narrative starting to recognise this is a contest?
leone
My heart breaks for the slaughtered children and their teachers. But it is now up to the citizens to decide what type of country they want. Apparently gun stores noted a 48% increase in gun sales since this latest massacre. the citizenry have spoken, it seems…..
[Well, the figures on the AWU stuff show that the media have misread the public mood – again.
Just as they’re doing with Ashby.]
And as they did with Craig Thomson.
[This is a misinterpretation of what happened.]
They should have called the busted light as a witness.
Ratsars
Surely determining an employee’s rights while at work is something worthwhile?
Your response is exactly what I would expect from a law industry spin merchant because it does not address the questions I was asking.
I have no idea about the details of the case and I am not really interested, either.
What I am interested in is why it necessarily took five years to sort out and how much it cost the taxpayers, how we get to value for money in the law industry and, in terms of GDP, can we ever get enough (or too much) of a what you obviously think is a good thing.
Poroti
Your response actually addressed the issues I was raising. It would be good to see far more of this systematic and sensible approach to managing the law industry.
SlavG
[Mod Lib, I have to say with 12 surpluses, most of which I assume were during the Howard government years, how can anyone hold that against Labor.]
Ignore Mod Lib. As Churchill is credited with saying, There are lies, damned lies and statistics! Mod Lib used “bare” statistics, devoid of national/ international context.
Anyone who’s studied Oz Commonwealth’s Economic History knows Mod Lib’s is a “rubbish” statistic for many reasons; the most important that Fed accounting methods change (sometimes from year to year), esp when calculating the Annual Budget and admitting Fed debt. Let me give you a recent example.
Liberals Howard & Costello claimed they left the Federal Government “debt free”; yet they left a debt of c$53-56 billion on the International Bond Market (see RBA stats). So, Liberal accountancy methods allowed them to obfuscate their way around the truth that they had left the incoming ALP government with a debt well in excess of $50 billion. Why? Because the International Bond Market is crucial to nations’ economic well-being – that’s why nations so zealously guard their AAA ratings; why they panic when ratings are downgraded – why Oz’s AAA rating from all major international agencies (1st for an Oz gov) is such an international triumph for Treasurer Swan – an accolade Howard’s Government & Treasurer Costello never achieved! Every politically literate politician, “captain” of banking, business, industry etc knows that – even if they lie through their teeth about it.
In addition, the Commonwealth, from time to time, takes on financial responsibilities which should rightly be met by State and Territory governments – esp in health, education, infrastructure (eg Menzies Gov borrowed heavily for ed, science & national infrastructure, and that debt, like WW II debts, matured – “matured” not “was paid off by the Howard Government” – only this century!)
How various federal governments did so (at least until 1998, before which knowing that was part of my job) – inc by hiving it off into special accounts – makes interesting reading. Whilst not exactly “cooking the books”, some Oz Treasurers could be very creative at “3 card trick” accounting.
Nor do blunt stats (eg number of surpluses) have any real legitimacy if devoid of the fiscal background which produced them – eg international “infection” of numerous post1888 recessions/ credit squeezes originating in the USA under a Republican government – usually the result of wars and/ or lax (if any at all) financial regulation; the latest being the GFC. Prior to c1888 (and from the 1820s) Australia’s economy (& budgets) were heavily affected by UK (mainly)/ European recessions (again, often after wars & revolutions).
At all times since the Rum Rebellion, Australia’s financial wellbeing rises and falls with International Commodity Prices – our characteristic “Boom or Bust” economy. Both Hawke/Keating & Rudd/Gillard governments recognised this, and set up contingency arrangements during commodity boom times to carry the nation through the “Busts”: Keating’s Fiscal & financial regulations, tweaked by Costello, are the reason our International Fiscal Standing is so very high. Costello’s creation (following those of state governments, many created preWW II) of the Federal Superannuation Future Fund with its huge assets, added to the States’ and well-run private super-funds, create a $trillion ++ proxy sovereign wealth funds underpinning our economy. Such “money bins”, augmented by higher superannuation through the MRRT, will continue to do so – unless Aussies elect a government which will stall or wreck them.
Oz fiscal statistics, that are more important than how many surpluses/ etc a government has run, are the points at which specific national stats were either:
* so bad they caused national concern (& often a change in government)- they all belong to Liberal PMs and their Treasurers, some CP/NP, more recently Liberal; more specifically Menzies/ Artie Fadden, and Fraser/ Howard; or
* so good they bulwark the economy through bad times: the Commonwealth Bank, then later the RBA (ALP); national superannuation, and the fiscal power of proxy “sovereign wealth funds” inc state super funds (based originally on UK Civil Service Pension Funds); National Superannuation (ALP); Future Fund (Liberal); “retiring” loan debt (started by ALP).
To Mod Lib’s “statistics”, in their Churchillian sense of the superlative degree of lies and damned lies you must add add the significance of the national & international financial contexts. Do that, and you know the reasons why “statistics” are Churchill’s superlative of “lies”.
The last fine Liberal Treasurers were Harry Holt and (to a lesser extent) Billy McMahon; the worst, John Howard.
[Brough’s eruption wasn’t that of an immature 15 year old, much as it resembled it. He was 40 at the time. And it wasn’t a flash of anger which was quickly abandoned. Brough was still talking about his dismissal two weeks after the incident, just as people were still talking about his reaction to it.]
To continue Malcolm Farr’s cricket metaphor… while the umpire has found Brough bowled a no ball (or as Michelle Grattan would put it, “overstepped the mark”), the fact that he hit the stumps via Peter Slipper’s cranium meant the batsman had to retire hurt anyway.
OPT
Mod lib disappeared like a puff of smoke when the Nielsen results came through.
BB
I can see why Abbott is backing Brough. They are birds of a feather. Vindictive and self absorbed. Whatever it takes to win! The both need to be bowled out!
victoria:
The Farr article is amazing! I can only assume this wasn’t written at the time of the Ashby stuff coming to light, esp once it was known that Brough was up to his neck in it, because it didn’t ‘fit’ the OM narrative at the time.
[Five years ago someone get hurt having a root in a motel on a work trip.]
Luvly!
confessions
It is amazing indeed. Brough is as bent as they come. Slipper aint no saint, but Brough is a real piece of work
[ Five years ago someone get hurt having a root in a motel on a work trip.
Luvly!]
You’d have thought the swelling would have gone down before now.
[To continue Malcolm Farr’s cricket metaphor…]
Yes and Tony is a tosser.
The motel light story is a ripper!
Hee hee hee – Tony Abbott is wearing his hair longer in an attempt to appeal to women. Or so Nikki Savva says. Just watch the video. Latika doesn’t seem to be convinced.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-12-17/tony-abbott-disapproval-rating-at-record-high/4430808
So that explains the dye and the comb-over and the spray tan. And it’s not working. So what will Tony do next? Any suggestions for the embattled LOTO in his quest to have women throw their votes at him? Pheromones perhaps?
http://www.risqueboutique.com/intensifiers-enhancers-aphrodisiacs/lure-for-him-pheromone-attractant-cologne.html?utm_campaign=Adult%20Products%20Sex%20Toys&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=myshopping&utm_term=Lure%20For%20Him%20Pheromone%20Attractant%20Cologne
Boerwar
You may like this guys article about how it works. The scheme also has important implications for the medical profession.
[Why not adopt New Zealands no-fault national insurance ? ]
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/01/why-not-adopt-nz%E2%80%99s-no-fault-national-insurance/
[What gives with these idiots?
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2012/12/16/video-birther-rep-louis-gohmert-solves-the-problem-arm-teachers-with-assault-rifles/ ]
Listening to this creature suggest that school principals should start packing heat is bad enough, but hearing him justify arming the population because they have to stop King George III is surreal.
He speaks about it as if it was yesterday.
In the meantime, it hasn’t been the government that’s been killing its citizens in any great number. It’s been the citizens themselves.
Good Morning Happy Little Bludgiemites! 🙂
I went to bed hoping that the Newspoll was a blip and that Nielsen would not be so bad, and so it has turned out to be!
My dream last night about marauding packs of attack dogs being overwhelmed by the good guys as they were about to succeed in taking control of the house(House?), and the people in it, was spot on!
I must admit, they weren’t totally vanquished, merely overwhelmed this time…and then the alarm went off. 🙁
Aren’t my dreams prescient, or weird, or both? 🙂
Still, there’s a lesson there, to be sure. The Attack Dogs in the Coalition and the media have been fended off for now.
However, as many in the ALP, and their supporters, have been saying, this next election is one of the most important for the Labor Party to win, of recent history.
NDIS, Gonski, NBN, Tax Reform/Reform of the Structural Deficit, Bedding in a Clean Energy Future, Guardianship of the Environment and protection from predatory Miners(on a par with Indian Mynah birds in my books!). There’s probably more.
Nevertheless, with the anti-government posters already going up in the Hotels of NSW again(I don’t know about the other States), and with what seems like a bottomless pot of money funding the Coalition’s never-ending election campaign, and the campaign proper, I can see the mother of all battles between the parties next year. Unpopular Abbott, or not.
Speaking of which, my 2 cents-worth as to why he has gone further backwards, and especially with men this time it seems. Well, if I know my Australian men, and Conservative men too, there’s one thing that is an ingrained character trait of Aussie Blokes. They do not like, viscerally, a man getting a woman to fight his battles for him. While he hides behind her faux Chanel brooch mouthing the words of her attack lines. Just a thought, but if you asked them why they disapproved more now of Tony Abbott, the words ‘Gutless Wonder’ might come out of their mouths.
Now, as for the NSW results. A couple of thoughts.
1. The citizens of NSW seem to conflate their opinion of the State government with federal polls. Well, I’d say they are not happy with Barry O’Farrell for getting down on his knees in front of James Packer, and approving a massive new casino, before getting a mandate from the people for it. The words ‘unseemly haste’ wrt it’s approval come to mind.
Secondly, he has been seen to have virtually capitulated to The Shooters and Fishers Party in our Upper House, in order to get his legislation through there.
No one I know likes the idea of re-introducing Hunting in our National Parks, or the re-introduction of Duck Shooting. Kowtowing to these guys just makes him look weak as a leader. We in NSW like our leaders strong and brash, not weak and craven. Look at the most popular politician in NSW, our Sydney Lord Mayor, Clover Moore. Bold and brassy, like Sydney itself.
2. The NSW electorate feels financially duped. I imagine most would not have minded pulling their belts in if it was necessary. However, to have seen the Liberal/Nationals Coalition here slashing and burning our TAFE system, other Special Education class aides in schools, and a myriad of other services gone, because they said they were $600 Million in State Budget Deficit, only for the Auditor General to come out and say they were actually $1 Billion to the good because the Coalition Treasurer, Bruce Baird’s son Mike Baird, had ‘miscalculated’ the figures. Well that was simply the worst of affronts to the electorate.
The electorate don’t like being lied to, remember? Or so the federal Liberals, under Tony Abbott, have been running around saying for the last 2 years.
Yet still the Coalition are saying that the cuts to Services will stand. Not Happy, Barry, is about the strength of it.
What’s so all-fire sacrosanct about a massive Surplus anyway? This State government aren’t going to use it to pay for Infrastructure. They are trying to hive the costs for that off to the federal government and the Private Sector.
So why not give us back our TAFE funding and Special Ed Teachers Aides?
In the end people are just seeing it as Coalition bloody-mindedness and an attempt to Privatise Trades Training by stealth and ghettoise Public Education.
It stinks to high heaven and people are starting to notice the smell.
Anyway, that’s my dyspeptic 2c-worth. 😀
Is ABC 24 seeking male company?
Frances Bell, Claire Aird, Weather Woman?
[You’d have thought the swelling would have gone down before now.]
Yes, once the tourniquet is removed a couple of weeks usually does it.
Wayne did a walk off from an idiot presser today when he’d had enough but unlike Abbott who backs out Wayne walked confidently straight through them saying ‘thanks very much’
It was a good look for Wayne.
Oh, and I forgot to add, that I reckon people think Tony Abbott was in The Ashby Conspiracy up to his neck.
When he says “No specific knowledge” they know he’s speaking out of his backside.
victoria
actually, I’m of the view that the Oppo should be front and centre in demanding an enquiry.
But they won’t be.
If I was advising the government, I would be using Abbott’s words against him – stressing his speeches to Parliament regarding the importance of the Speaker’s position, how it’s sacrosanct, etc, and following that up with, of course, given Abbott’s stated views, he would be the first to support a thorough examination of what went on….because he wouldn’t mislead Parliament, would he?