Seat of the week: Brisbane

With the change in the state’s political breeze recently, Labor is hungrily eyeing Queensland as a potential source of seats to counterbalance anticipated losses in Sydney. An inner-city seat with the LNP’s lowest margin represents an obvious target.

The electorate of Brisbane has existed without interruption since federation, and presently covers the north shore of the Brisbane River from Milton through the CBD to Eagle Farm, extending northwards to Stafford at its western end and Hendra in the east. It was the most surprising of the Liberal National Party’s eight gains in Queensland at the 2010 election, as Labor had held the seat since 1931 outside of the interruption of 1975 to 1980, holding on even in the face of the 1996 disaster which reduced Labor to two Queensland seats. The defeated Labor member was Arch Bevis, who had held the seat since 1990 when he succeeded Manfred Cross, whose tenure went back to 1961. Peter Johnson held the seat for the Liberals from 1975 until 1980, when Cross recovered his old seat on the second attempt.

Brisbane’s complexion was changed somewhat by redistributions in 2004 and 2010, the more recent of which cut the margin from 6.8% to 3.8% by adding 26,500 voters at the eastern end of the electorate at the expense of territory out to Ferny Grove and Upper Kedron in the west and Stafford in the north. The former area included Clayfield and its highly affluent surrounds, which have contributed to the electorate’s current status as the highest-income electorate in Queensland. This proved doubly damaging for Labor as the swings around Clayfield were especially strong, in keeping with a national trend in which the air went out of the Howard-era “doctors’ wives” balloon. The effect was to counterbalance a relatively static result in the inner city, contributing to a decisive 5.7% swing to the LNP. The result was also notable for the 21.3% vote for the Greens (compared with a Labor primary vote of 30.4%), whose candidate was former Democrats Senator and party leader Andrew Bartlett.

The LNP victory facilitated a return to parliament for Teresa Gambaro, who had held the northern Brisbane seat of Petrie from 1996 until her defeat in 2007. Gambaro is a member of a family famous in Brisbane for its seafood business, its restaurant being located in the electorate at Petrie Terrace. Nonetheless, Brisbane did not seem an especially strong prospect for her at the time of preselection, which occurred at the peak of the Rudd government’s fortunes in the opinion polls. Gambaro held parliamentary secretary and assistant minister positions in the final term of the Howard government, and has served as shadow parliamentary secretary for international development assistance and citizenship and settlement throughout the current term. She made headlines in January 2012 when she called for migrants to be given hygiene lessons, for which she subsequently apologised.

Labor has preselected Fiona McNamara, an organiser with the Queensland Teachers Union, of which Arch Bevis was also an official before entering parliament. The union is not affiliated with the ALP, but is said to wield influence in the Labor Unity faction. McNamara has been twice unsuccessful as candidate for Peter Dutton’s northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, falling short by 0.1% in 2007 and 5.1% in 2010.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,333 comments on “Seat of the week: Brisbane”

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  2. I agree with fran (again).

    1. It’s very similar in nature to the Chaser stunt at APEC. Yes, the guys involved got in a bit of trouble at the time, but they never in their wildest dreams thought security would be so lax as to let them drive up to the hotel.

    The DJs have said that they never expected to get through -and there’s no way they should have been allowed to.

    2. To me, it demonstrates the obsession with royalty, rather than any evil on the media’s part. The normal reaction to letting through a call like that would be embarrassment and remorse. Now, I’ve felt extreme embarrassment and remorse (when I let down people who were depending on me to stand up for them in the public arena) so I can sympathise.

    I would expect, however, that part of the hospital’s management of the situation would be to provide the nurses involved with considerably more support than I got at the time.

    3. I’ve also been the victim of a prank call, designed to manipulate a decision made at council. Annoying, perplexing, but that’s it.

    I can’t blame the DJs for this. They didn’t have the intent for the stunt to go as far as it did, and they certainly didn’t foresee these consequences (and if anyone did, then why wasn’t the nurse involved being looked after?)

    It seems like being wise after the event to decide they’re to blame.

    Anyway, if any of you thought the Chaser stunt at APEC was justified and amusing, you have no right to criticise the DJs involved. It is exactly the same prank.

  3. Gigi – ok, so we should ban everything that might push people over the edge?

    I disagree. We don’t structure life to ensure that everyone is safe from everything all the time.

    It doesn’t work that way. I don’t appreciate that there is any entertainment value in prank calls, but obviously some people must. For the most part it is harmless, if not even potentially utilitarian in publicly promoting critical thinking faculties on everyones’ part.

    As I’ve said, when you’re answering a telephone on behalf of an organization you really need to be able to deal with whatever nonsense may be shoveled down the line at you, whether it’s someone trying to perpetrate a scam, illicitly obtain information, someone who’s just plain crazy, hostile public, abuse, whatever. If they are not up to the task then they shouldn’t be answering the phone.

    At the end of the day “customer facing” employees need to have the resilience to be able to say to themselves “I did the best I could” and feel that that was ok, whatever the outcome.

  6. Re: Suicide of the phone hoax nurse, the ramifications for this poor woman came two ways:-
    1. the shame of being hoaxed by media fools
    2. the double whammy of being fooled in a workplace with an enormous image issue where a slip-up like hers would doubtless be looked upon with great disdain by the hospital’s managers/owners , anxious to preserve their reputation

  8. [Point well made. Unfortunately, it is impossible to understand the frame of mind someone is in at any given time or situation. Let us hope some lessons are indeed learned]

    It puts Jones’ hateful commentary – and his call to go in even harder on Gillard – into a proper perspective.

    We’ve seen Thomson and Slipper in tears. we had a suicide attempt a few years ago over “Oh! Possum!”. We don’t need any more gratuitous mockery here.

  9. My mother (who can be cloyingly sentimental) asked me on the morning of my wedding if I could imagine being married to my husband in fifty years time.

    I said no, of course I couldn’t, I couldn’t imagine what it would be like in five years, but I certainly wanted to marry him that day.

    Thirty years on….he’s an exasperating man who doesn’t deserve me, but here I still am….

  11. [the double whammy of being fooled in a workplace with an enormous image issue where a slip-up like hers would doubtless be looked upon with great disdain by the hospital’s managers/owners , anxious to preserve their reputation]

    The Queen is apparently that hospital’s patron.

  14. frednk@37


    There is only one thing that will fix up Labors immage in NSW, federal intervention, but isn’t going to happen.

    Yes, as I have been saying for some time.

    The NSW Branch might do an absolutely amazing job of cleaning itself up (unlikely) but the problem of perception will still remain.
    There needs to be a dramatic event that signals unequivocally a clear break with the past.
    The only thing I can think of meeting that description is Federal Intervention and a Federal driven re-structuring.

  15. BB

    Yes it was not too long ago that there was concern being expressed by MPs regarding Slipper’s state of mind during the release of the latest texts etc. and leading to his resignation as speaker.

  16. Danny
    The Gambaro name is well known in the Brisbane Electorate that is where she grew up, local Catholic royalty, owned fish markets, restaurants etc. Interestingly for the coming election, her name was not mentioned once in connection with giving assistance during the Brisbane floods whereas Kevin Rudd on the opposite side of the River was out and about day and night as were other MPs, she was conspicuous by her absence. The 2010 result was very close.

    Victoria
    Fiona McNamara was a very hardworking candidate, she tried to get to as many functions within the electorate as she could and accompanied the State MPs to various events and campaigned almost continuously. She was unlucky in that the residents of the area were unaffected by the insult of Peter Dutton trying to dump them and run for preselection in a Gold Coast seat and then he came back with his tail between his legs! I could never understand it

  17. Zoomster:

    [Anyway, if any of you thought the Chaser stunt at APEC was justified and amusing, you have no right to criticise the DJs involved. It is exactly the same prank.]

    Just so. I can easily imagine The Chaser boys trying something like this for S & G. It’s what they do. They did try covering the Royal Wedding didn’t they? I daresay they’d have tested the boundaries.

  18. victoria

    Yes, they did. And there was huge outrage at the time – including, I dare say, on this site – about how ridiculous it was that they should do so, and how the stunt was justified because it showed up security lapses.

    The hospital concerned should have (and probably did, because the hospitals I work with would) emphasised to the nurses responsible that the incident was the result of failed processes rather than personal incompetence (assuming that the nurses followed protocol).

    They certainly, as health professionals, should have been alert to the possible stresses the nurses were under and been providing support for them.

    The hospital has to take some of the blame, here. They either didn’t have proper processes in place, or hadn’t trained staff adequately; they should have been very much aware of the potential impact on their staff – not just the nurses involved – and had supportive structures in place.

    If the hospital had proper call screening measures in place, combined with basic common sense (the Queen does not place her own calls, people – there’s a whole episode of ‘West Wing’ devoted to the incompetence of the President when he tries to make a call himself and can’t navigate the White House switchboard) the hoax call wouldn’t have lasted 30 seconds.

    The DJs didn’t expect to get through. They expected to be hung up on immediately.

    Once the call had been transferred, the damage was already done, at least as far as the receptionist was concerned.

  19. Diogenes@55


    While the radio station is not totally to blame for the nurses very sad suicide, it is completely foreseeable that the nurse would have been distressed at her involvement.

    The media has blood on its hands. It has callous indifference to its effect on anyone.

    I disagree.
    It is easy to blame people associated with an event that can be portrayed as precipitating what happened, but it is usually entirely unfair to do so.

    I would suggest the poor nurse probably had undiagnosed mental health issues (depression of one sort or another) and this could have happened any time.

  21. [the double whammy of being fooled in a workplace with an enormous image issue where a slip-up like hers would doubtless be looked upon with great disdain by the hospital’s managers/owners , anxious to preserve their reputation]

    I repeat: there was no pressure put on her, either by the hospital or the Palace.

    From the Guardian:

    [A St James’s Palace spokesman added that the palace had “at no point” complained about the hoax incident. “On the contrary, we offered our full and heartfelt support to the nurses involved and hospital staff at all times”.
    …
    It is understood that the hospital, which had described the hoax as deplorable, was not disciplining the nurses involved.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/dec/07/royal-hospital-nurse-djs-dead ]

  23. Yes, I too was shocked that voters didn’t take the opportunity of Dutton’s attempted defection to rid themselves of the useless MP. What on earth has he done as shadow health minister? Nothing.

  24. [While the radio station is not totally to blame for the nurses very sad suicide, it is completely foreseeable that the nurse would have been distressed at her involvement. ]

    Yes, distress WAS forseeable, but suicide was not.

    People don’t usually kill themselves over incidents such as this.

    The question remains whether suicide now has to be taken into account.

    The next prank caller, especially if from 2Day FM, won’t get off so lightly, being allowed to wallow in their grief and only taken off the air “until further notice”.

  25. [The average global temperature, for night and day, is now 19 degrees, up from 14 degrees at the turn of the 20th century.

    The best scientific estimates suggest that the last time it was this hot was during the Eocene, more than 30 million years ago, and long before humans turned up. Back then, temperatures rose gradually over many thousands of years. We’ve watched it happen in 100.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/five-degrees-hotter-20121207-2b19g.html#ixzz2EPXUkiuq

    A good report of the likely global temperature in 2100. Scary though.

  26. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@89


    This wa not a prank call or an hoax. What it boils down to is these radio jocks told a blatant lie to get what they wanted.

    Puffy, settle down.
    There is an element of deception in most if not all pranks.

    Honestly, some of you folks would put the Chaser team out of business.

  28. Just Me,
    I just now installed greasemonkey then I tried downloading cccp but all I got is a window opening up showing the raw code.

  31. Now for the Media …

    The Daily Fail

    [How could they fall for this hoax? Hospital gives Kate’s private details to Aussie DJ who was impersonating Queen]

    [
    St James’s Palace has refused to comment and will not be making any formal complaint to the radio station, 2Day, which is based in Sydney.
    But the Mail understands that William and Kate’s private staff are furious and have expressed ‘deep concern’ that the Duchess’s privacy could be compromised in this way.
    What worries them most, apparently, is just how easy it was for the DJs to get away with their prank.

    Dickie Arbiter, the Queen’s former Press Secretary who worked at Buckingham Palace for 12 years, told MailOnline: ‘This is a shocking breach of security. ]

    Daily Fail a bit later:

    [<a href="'You have her blood on your hands': World horrified by sick pranksters who boasted even as tragedy unfolded – and now they've been taken off air"]

    No acknowledgement of course of the change in attribution of guilt tere of course.

  32. [you never know when you’re going to break an egg-shell heart and trigger a tragedy.]

    And everyone here at PB will keep this in mind next time we want to get stuck into Grattan, Shanas, Jones, Abbott, Pyne …? No? Thought not.

    There are very real cases of the media acting appallingly. This is not one of them. These two aren’t journalists trying to get a story, they’re hack second rate wannabe Hamish and Andy ‘comedians’ looking for a laugh.

    This not Alan Jones material.

    It’s not the same as that Channel 9 cameraman calling a Muslim father a terrorist and then only showing his response on air.

    And it’s not the same as a radio station holding a competition to guess how many asylum seekers are being buried in Sydney, all to win movie tickets.

    These are real examples of genuine problems in the media that have to be addressed, examples of where the outcome can not only be anticipated, it is in fact desired. A prank phone call from some unfunny chuckleheads is not even in the vicinity of these issues. Conflating the two only makes tackling the real problems that much harder.

    Unless you propose to ban the Chaser, Chris Morris, Candid Camera, Neil Hamburger, the breakfast DJs from the Simpsons, in fact pretty much every breakfast radio show in the world.

    Which, admittedly, may not be such a bad idea after all.

  34. Just Me@113


    Puff, the Magic Dragon.@101


    yes, I have Firefox. I don’t seem to be able to download it. Is there a special one for Macs?


    There is a Mac specific version of Firefox, but not of Musrum’s script (far as I know).

    Describe the exact steps you have taken so far…

    Musrums script runs within the browser and is not therefore dependent on the computer or its operating system.
    cccp works for Firefox or Chrome.

  35. BB at 121; I hadn’t read your Guardian post when I wrote that, but I guess my experience in workplaces where public image is a major consideration leads me to wonder (if only a little bit) that what a ‘spokesperson’ or other says to the media may not represent the full story. Was the Guardian story released ‘post suicide’?

  36. I hate the radio pranks because they are always meant to hurt someone just to give others a cheap laugh. I know they are not meant to cause a lot hurt but often do.

    I don’t however think blaming the DJ’s for the death of the nurse is justified. While the last straw is said to have broken the camels back we all know that is not the case. THey all play a part.

  37. I think Zoomster @102 got it right.

    The other thing that occurred to me is that this was likely to have been a major failure on the part of hospital management in dealing with queries purportedly from the Royal Family. Surely they had protocols in place to confirm the identity of a Royal caller (which I expect would be initiated by a member of the Palace staff known to management, not by Her Majesty herself picking up the phone). Further, it would have been a requirement that hospital staff be briefed on such protocols. The Palace would have expected nothing less. It does appear from the facts to hand that the nurse who took the call had not been informed of any such procedures. Alternatively, she may have had a reasonable expectation that the call had already been appropriately screened.

    If anyone has to answer for this, I think it goes to hospital management, not the journalists who played a silly prank and certainly not the poor front line worker who had the misfortune to be on the desk when the call came through.

  39. Inam taking pnadiene forte every 4-5 hours just to keep the headache under control. It is just in the head, not the chest but this bug is doozy.

  40. Victoria @ 120
    [Appreciate the feedback. Do you believe Fiona McNamara has a good chance against Gambaro?]

    I haven’t spoken to anyone on this so I am not sure. The inner city is undergoing some big changes with job cuts in the Royal Bris Hospital,in Ascot were the booth was 78% high rise units are being built around the racetracks etc so the Newmann effect may have some influence.
    Perhaps we can get feedback from Feeney and Lynchpin both live closer to that electorate than I, though they are across the river in Kevin’s electorate.
    She has already been the candidate for 2 elections, with most of us being surprised at her not being elected, so I hope she gets lots of support.

  42. Good Morning

    Congratulations My Say!!

    Regarding the nurse suicide. It would have been a case of a straw breaking a camels back. The hospital should have procedures in place to support all their staff working in a high pressure situation.

    I have heard that first responders and medical staff have amongst the highest rates of suicide due to the natural stress that comes from making decisions that can have life or death consequence.

    I agree with Zoomster and Fran regarding the two DJ’s in question.

    I also agree with BB. We have come to a culture where the media thinks it is above consequence. In the case of 2Day we have seen this again and again. So while I do not blame the two DJ’s for the suicide I do blame them for being part of a culture that glories in pranks.

    Invading the privacy of a patient is no prank. This is where the legal people should have said no do not do this.

    This is the point where this “prank” is different to the Chaser one.

    Generally with some exceptions pranks are an excuse to bully. Go look at what victims of bullies say about behaviour of bullies.
    So I am against pranks as a general thing and think poorly of those that conduct them.

  43. The Chaser stunt breaching security at APEC

    is not the same as

    Getting confidential medical information . . . . from a royal in UK

    Journalists have a code of conduct which the radio announcers have clearly breached . . . if they were ever aware of it

  46. vic

    [I believe The chaser guys were charged and had to go to Court]

    The charges were quashed as it was highly unlikely they could find 12 people (jurors) who would return a “guilty” verdict. Especially Sydneysiders who had to live through the “police state” security setup for the event. Virtually everyone thought the “stunt” was the perfect response.

    To prove my point, no-one remembers what was actually discussed at the conference, but EVERYONE remembers the stunt.

  47. I usually don’t comment on this sort of stuff but I’m with zoomster @ 102 & 118, Fran Barlow and other like-minded individuals who have expressed the same opinions.

    Son of Foro @132 encapsulates the views i was going to express but saves me the effort to do so 🙂

  49. Leroy,
    I agree with it, too. That is the difference with the Chaser’s OPEC thing.AFAIAC

    They take advantage of lower paid workers. I thought there was something wrong with my sense of humour because these ‘pranks’ always made me feel a bit uncomfortable.

  50. Though, i must add that i do not ‘do’ pranks, nor particularly find them funny.

    Perhaps, that’s because i am a “humourless Greens”, eh, Confessions? 😉

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