The most electorally significant change to result from the redistribution in Victoria relates to the electorate of McEwen, a traditionally marginal seat in Melbourne’s northern hinterland which has now been rendered fairly safe for Labor. This results from the transfusion of around 35,000 voters from rapidly growing Labor-voting suburbs around Sunbury, which are counterbalanced by the loss of outer urban areas further east (20,000 voters to Casey, 13,000 to Scullin and 4500 to Jagajaga), together with 10,000 to Indi and 7,000 to Bendigo in rural Victoria. The electorate maintains a stretch of the Hume Highway including Kilmore and Seymour, together with the urban fringe centres of Gisborne, Wallan and Whittlesea. Among the areas transferred to Indi are Kinglake and Maryville, which were devastated in the bushfires of February 2009.
McEwen was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 and held for Labor in its first two terms by Peter Cleeland, who was unseated in 1990 by Fran Bailey as part of a statewide swing which cost Labor nine seats. Cleeland recovered the seat with a 0.7% margin in 1993, but was again defeated by Bailey in 1996. In 1998 it was one of a number of marginal seats which registered a below-par swing to Labor, a circumstance that allowed the Howard government to win re-election from a minority of the national two-party vote.
Consecutive swings to Bailey in 2001 and 2004 combined with a 1.0% redistribution to put the seat outside the marginal zone, but such was the swing to Labor in 2007 that Bailey needed every bit of her 6.4% margin to hold on. At first blush the result was the closest in any federal election since Ian Viner’s 12-vote victory in the Perth seat of Stirling in 1974: Labor challenger Rob Mitchell won by seven votes on the first count, but a recount turned that to a 12-vote margin in favour of Bailey. Labor challenged the outcome in the Federal Court, but the determinations the court made regarding individual ballot papers actually increased Bailey’s margin to 27.
Fran Bailey retired at the 2010 election, disappointing Liberals who hoped the esteem she gained during the bushfire crisis would stand her in good stead in a difficult seat. The party appeared to do well in preselecting Cameron Caine, a Kinglake police officer credited with saving several lives during the emergency, but he was swamped by a 5.3% swing. This made it second time lucky for Labor’s Rob Mitchell, who won preselection with the support of the Bill Shorten-Stephen Conroy sub-faction of the Victorian Right. Mitchell had earlier won a seat in the state upper house province of Central Highlands at the 2002 election, before being frozen out by the electoral reforms that took effect in 2006.
The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Ben Collier, managing director of Sunbury-based information technology consultancy Collier Pereira Services.
frednk@1199
That sums it up perfectly.
I wasn’t aware that Israel was the 4th strongest military power in the world though. Is that conventional forces or does it take into account their nukes?
mari
Sometimes my kids (10 and 14) are home alone for a few hours. I hate to think how it would have affected them is that was one of those times.
I’m pretty sure burglars wouldn’t do anything to kids but who knows what would happen if they panicked.
Socrates
[If Dio is around I’d be interested in his views of the medical practice Ms Halappanavar received. ]
On the face of it, the care was criminally negligent but I never trust what I read in the media about medical cases unless there is a very detailed article with timelines, quotes from all parties etc.
They certainly wouldn’t have knowingly refused to save her life by performing an abortion but clearly her care was delayed and sub-optimal for some reason.
Leone,
[I won’t be watching, I loath Q&A with a passion.]
Ah, a common passion. May I marry you when I grow up?
[Diogenes
Posted Sunday, November 18, 2012 at 9:34 pm | PERMALINK
mari
Sometimes my kids (10 and 14) are home alone for a few hours. I hate to think how it would have affected them is that was one of those times.
I’m pretty sure burglars wouldn’t do anything to kids but who knows what would happen if they panicked.]
Yes it was me who panicked when I found out. My daugher wasn’t in the least fazed, rang me at work and rang my OH, then rang the police and had things organised as I came rushing home
Socrates
Something was missed.
[Apart from anything else, sources confirm terminations have been carried out at University Hospital Galway in the past where complications have arisen in pregnancy and where, to repeat, such exceptions are explicity allowed for under Republic of Ireland law. Why Savita was not given a termination earlier on these grounds is not clear.]
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2234271/Savita-Halappanavar-A-pregnant-wifes-death-global-outcry–Was-killed-draconian-abortion-laws.html#ixzz2CZNOnU1k
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muttley
ah.
We have an utterly absurd German Shepherd at the moment – everything is out of proportion, her nose is too long, her ears too big, etc, so she looks permanently puppyish, and has the silly but sweet nature to go with it – and an awesome dog we bought at a part Shepherd who seems to be a Shepherd sized kelpie.
The GS has been very successful at chasing off Seventh Day Adventists – the only cars she bounces a metre into the air alongside, with all hairs bristling – whose faith is apparently not strong enough when it comes to tackling her!
Diog
there was a spate of burglaries – almost unheard of, doors and cars are left unlocked as a matter of course up here – a few years ago, and I remember some story about a kid hiding under the desk whilst the burglar removed the computer from on top of it!
Of course, it was a farmhouse, which made it even scarier…
Dio 1205
Thanks, I hadn’t seen that story and that is what I would have expected. Hence my comment that something else has happened here. The abortion law alone does not explain the actions of the staff, if they are as reported. Indeed, even catholic church doctrine doesn’t, since they permit abortion when the mother’s life is endangered.
To reiterate: in a 17 week pregnancy with ruptured membranes an abortion is not absolutely indicated but is certainly offered in Australia. Antibiotics are absolutely necessary. This is not a usual cause of maternal death or complication.
The eventual results of the coroner’s inquest will tell us a lot
However, none of this detracts from the necessity for abortion reform in the republic – it will require a referendum to modify the constitution and will be hard fought.
Socrates,
Hat tip to Xanthippe (and I’m curious – have either or both of you read Roger Scruton’s marvellous Xanthippic Dialogues?
Assuming that the reportage is correct, I hope that there is a special place reserved in hell for the “good” Professor Emeritus Eamon O’Dwyer and all of his ilk.
As a danger to maternal life would not be immediately apparent an abortion would not be permitted under amendment 16 (i think) of the Irish constitution.
[1198
bemused
…. as usual Rudd goes public (Q&A, etc.). Kevin is extremely predictable. ]
Loathe as I am to watch anything featuring KR, I couldn’t avoid catching the shorts for Q&A, in which he is evinces concern “for the future of democracy in this country”, or some such. “Upon what grounds?” mused I. What could his motive be for raising this particular alarm? Of course, there are no real grounds for fear. We are seeing just another example of K’s unquenchable desire to attract attention to himself. For K, politics has become a simple quest for self-gratification.
The greatest contribution he could make would be to maintain a studied and imperturbable silence. Instead he is providing yet another reason to avoid watching the ABC.
Diogenes,
I note with respect your commentary, and yes, there are lots of unanswered questions with a tricky reform agenda ahead – but this was still an avoidable, unnecessary death.
BEMUSED RE GAZA
_____________
Yes attacks on refugees penned up in a ghetto withn no mercy…that seems to say it all about Israeli policy
200 attacks today on in infrstructure…what san be left standing
The unrelenting attacks on civilians would seem to be based on a leaf out of Herman Goering testbook of war crimes.
Fiona
Can you besure that an abortion would have saved her life? It might be best to wait for the coroner – i thought as a lawyer you would not jump to a conclusion.
It will be out tonight, from the Community Editor of The Age.
[Paul Austin @Agecommunity
Lots of interesting stuff in the latest Nielsen poll, in The Age tomorrow.
9:40 PM – 18 Nov 12]
[I’m pretty sure burglars wouldn’t do anything to kids but who knows what would happen if they panicked.]
I’m not prepared to find out. I don’t know anyone who doesn’t at least hesitate when confronted with 40kg of possessive, very protective dog and that’s the way I like it. Assorted doorknockers take little of our time.
We also have six choox (which BigGirlDog now understands are MY choox and leaves them alone except for rounding them up and herding them into Chookingham Palace in case of bad weather or similar threat) and two BoyCats who treat both BigDog and us with equal disdain.
Dogs have Masters, Cats have Staff.
Mornings here are brilliant. BigDog and both cats come out, all sniff noses in greeting and all demand food in their various ways. Which food is distributed as the coffee machine heats, the jug boils and the teapot does its mysterious magic.
Our noses remain unsniffed, and we wait for our morning tea and coffee respectively. But we are loved and protected.
Inordinately.
Actually socrates the republic’s constitution differs from Catholic theology. The constitution recognises an equal right to life of mother and foetus. Traditional catholic theology holds the rights of the foetus to be greater than that of the mother.
Briefly,
I don’t know whether you caught any of ABC Classic’s Song and Dance program this arvo:
[Next Wednesday is the centenary of the birth of Eleanor Powell. She is the first of nine female performers whose careers are celebrated in this edition. June Havoc and Frances Faye were also born in November, 1912. Estelle Parsons will be 85 next Tuesday. Entertainers who have recently had “significant” birthdays are Petula Clark (80), Barbara Cook (85), Cleo Laine (85), Carol Lawrence (80) and Patti Page (85).]
I was out shopping so only heard bits and pieces. Truly memorable:
[Porter Born to Dance: Rap, tap on wood
Marjorie Lane and The Foursome, voc; Eleanor Powell, tap; MGM Studio Orch/Alfred NewmanGreat Movie Themes
Fletcher Drunk With Love
Frances Faye, voc; Ensemble/Dave Cavanaugh
Gershwin arr Garcia Porgy and Bess: Bess, you is my woman now
Frances Faye and Mel Tormé, voc; Bethlehem Orch/Rus Garcia
King Tennessee Waltz
Patti Page, voc; Orch/Jack Rael]
and last (that I heard) but definitely not least:
[Joel New York State of Mind
Barbara Cook, voc; Ted Rosenthal, p; Lawrence Feldman, sax; Jay Leonhart, db; Warren Odze]
[President Obama’s subsequent victory is a massive and humiliating blow to the Rove/Crosby school of politics.]
Rossmore, and Australian, Lynton Crosby has just been given the nod by Cameron. Big mistake, methinks.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2234565/PMs-new-fixer-racist-rant-Muslims-Foul-mouthed-abuse-campaign-chief-revealed-lands-Tory-post.html
In the last Gaza conflict Israel uased phosphorus shells on the civilian polulation..while denying same…that was a subject of the Goldstone inquiry
It was evident from the news footage at the time,and the terrible injuries of many killed in the attacks…including the school which was attacked
International event just held in Australia.
Forty nations competing.
Two weeks of fierce competition.
Australia v NZ rivalry for the team champion.
Bronzed fit competitors out the sun, sand and surf at some of the Australia’s most beautiful beaches.
Did I mention forty nations coming to Australia for the event, plus all the international visitors?
I saw no results, reports, or telecasts of it on any TV network, but for one or two brief mentions in the local news. (I cannot speak for ABC Stateline because I didn’t see those.)
That was the 2012 Life Saving World Championships, just completed in Adelaide SA.
Well done, MSM. 😡
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-11-18/adelaide-life-saving-championships-great-success/4378036
Oakeshott Country,
No, of course I can’t be sure, and as I at least intimated from the lawyers’ perspective the coroner is generally (but not always – think the Azaria Chamberlain case, for example) the best guide.
From a woman’s perspective, however, I may have a slightly different opinion.
briefly:
[We are seeing just another example of K’s unquenchable desire to attract attention to himself. For K, politics has become a simple quest for self-gratification.]
My sense is that he’s over-reached with his not so subtle media appearances of late.
Contrast with Turnbull, who has played it pretty smart since being removed. He’s been the loyal team player ensuring he’s remained on the front bench and has contradicted his leader on only the fewest of occasions, even then keeping a low profile afterwards.
Rudd OTOH has over reached. Consequently he’s on the back bench, and possibly even more hated now than he was when he was first removed.
Leroy,
[It will be out tonight, from the Community Editor of The Age.]
Bother. I was planning an early night.
Prediction for Nielsen:
54/46 to Labor 😛
C’mon shock the monkey
muttley
my beloved super sized kelpie went through a stage where she accidentally killed chooks (she loved to carry them around, despite us trying to persuade her it wasn’t a good idea).
Both times, she came and told me she’d done something absolutely terrible and couldn’t be more sorry…and I found the dead chook placed in a kind of nest under the old Kombi van we use as a chook house…a sort of ‘well, you never know your luck…’ type gesture, I felt.
The original coroner’s inquest of the Chamberlain’s got it right.
Having said that I must say I recently read a coroner’s report where I thought there had been negligence. I could see the point where the coroner did not ask the vital question ( why did you leave the patient ?) and the findings were less damning than they should have been.
Centre,
Nuts. Remember:
Slowlee slowlee catchee :monkey:
Events moving swiftly in Jordan
___________
While all eyes have been on Gaza…events are m,oiving swiftly in neart Jordan ,where the regime of Kimg Abdullah..son on late Hussein which is under attack by huge crowds in Amman and other cities.
Once demanding reforms…the crowds now call for an Islamic Republic
A revolution in Jordan whose rosyl family have long been seen as in Washington’s pocket will bring the new regime to the common frontier it shares with Israel
My dogs would present me with the rats they killed, as a kind of tribute because I was Top Bitch.
http://mondoweiss.net/2012/11/thousands-of-protesters-call-for-downfall-of-the-regime-in-jordan.html
From Jordan today…from Mondoweiss in NY
The size and efficiency of Israel’s military has very little bearing on the morality of its use vie a vis Hamas. But I think it’s safe to assume if Hamas had access to the same weaponry they’d use it no differently. Their wild firing of unguided ballistics into Israeli civilian populations makes this rather clear. Uneffective, yes. Justified, no.
In any case operating under the assumption Hamas deserves sympathy or the benefit of the doubt doesn’t really wash with me. It might have done when I was 19 and an avid Chomsky reader though.
Like I said, I hope both sides lose. Beyond that I care very little about what goes on over there because it’s obvious to me it’ll still be an issue long after I’m dead – so long as religion is the main obstacle to overcome for peace to be even a faint possibility.
This conflict will end in a month or two, there’ll be the usual enquiries and UN noises then in a year or three it’ll start all over again. Rinse and repeat.
Oakeshott Country,
[ I could see the point where the coroner did not ask the vital question …]
As one does, for example, when watching journalists interviewing people – but then, I have never cross-examined anybody, so I have no appreciation of the exigencies of the process.
Well, does anybody want my story about the Chook Who Mourned?
Re Austins tweet – The polling has been jumping about between 50 to 54 to the libs for a while now, so 53/47 to the Libs would not be overly “interesting”, 53/47 to Labor on the other hand…
After whipper snippering today and reclining with a G&T afterwards, the dogs were going crazy around a patch of freshly mown lawn.
Fearing a snake, I raced over to find a perfectly laid native duck egg enmeshed in the grass, buried to an extent that the whipper snipper hadn’t broken it.
Prising it free from the grass and offering it to the dogs revealed a stillborn baby inside the egg, feathers and all.
muttley#1200 – sadly didnt work that way when some low life broke in to our place as kids and stole , amongst other things, my grandfather’s medals. We found our very big golden retriever hiding and whimpering. Early comments about her limited abilities as guard dog dropped off when we saw the marks (including blood) indicating the cretins had coshed her.
Have always hoped they came upon a Rottie or even worse the next house they came to.
So we are waiting for James J then are we?
Sohar – there is always MOE, but Neilsen has been less erratic than Newspoll the last few months, showing a steady drift to the ALP.
At a pure guess, there is more interest in leader rating and individual issue questions.
I used to live in Sydneys eastern suburbs in a block of units which was plagued by break-ins,vandalism, etc. Then a man reputed to be Abe Saffron installed a close female companion in the block and suddenly our problems magically disappeared.
Henry – James J only gets News Ltd polls info. We are waiting on Ghost.
I remember the time when my dog, a Jack Russell, was happily playing with a sock he found near the river one time. Thrashing it in his mouth, dashing it against the rocks.
I remember thinking, what a good dog, he is now bringing it to me to have a tug of war or something.
Of course it was a huge river rat, not quite dead…
Fiona
NO!
I have already written to Santa. If I have been good, Dopey Joe gets the job, if I have been really really good, it goes to Mesma 🙂
Confessions,
A couple of decades ago OH came home one Saturday morning with a smile on his face and a new super duper PETROL-powered whipper-snipper in his hand (none of those effete electricity-powered wimps for him).
So, he decided to do the rounds of the garden whipper snippering everything in sight.
Eventually, he approached the back gate – at which point I hurried out to suggest that this was NOT a good place to go …
… too late.
About 30 minutes earlier a large dog had deposited some rather large droppings in the very big clump of grass next to one of the gateposts.
OH was required to disrobe completely as soon as he was inside the back door (and hence in the laundry). He went into a hot shower; his clothes into a hot wash.
It’s a topic to which I rarely refer, but when I do, it’s remarkably effective 🙂
For some reason I thought James J had a link to AAP somehow and thus access to Nielsen, perhaps not.
Cheers leroy.
My guess is 51 or 52 to COAL.
Within moe, maybe some movement to ALP.
Yes fiona, tell us of the chook who mourned.
Sounds like a Max Walker yarn.
Marrickville Mauler,
[We found our very big golden retriever hiding and whimpering.]
I hope that your worst wishes were realised.
50/50?
Well, here’s hoping.