The most electorally significant change to result from the redistribution in Victoria relates to the electorate of McEwen, a traditionally marginal seat in Melbourne’s northern hinterland which has now been rendered fairly safe for Labor. This results from the transfusion of around 35,000 voters from rapidly growing Labor-voting suburbs around Sunbury, which are counterbalanced by the loss of outer urban areas further east (20,000 voters to Casey, 13,000 to Scullin and 4500 to Jagajaga), together with 10,000 to Indi and 7,000 to Bendigo in rural Victoria. The electorate maintains a stretch of the Hume Highway including Kilmore and Seymour, together with the urban fringe centres of Gisborne, Wallan and Whittlesea. Among the areas transferred to Indi are Kinglake and Maryville, which were devastated in the bushfires of February 2009.
McEwen was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 and held for Labor in its first two terms by Peter Cleeland, who was unseated in 1990 by Fran Bailey as part of a statewide swing which cost Labor nine seats. Cleeland recovered the seat with a 0.7% margin in 1993, but was again defeated by Bailey in 1996. In 1998 it was one of a number of marginal seats which registered a below-par swing to Labor, a circumstance that allowed the Howard government to win re-election from a minority of the national two-party vote.
Consecutive swings to Bailey in 2001 and 2004 combined with a 1.0% redistribution to put the seat outside the marginal zone, but such was the swing to Labor in 2007 that Bailey needed every bit of her 6.4% margin to hold on. At first blush the result was the closest in any federal election since Ian Viner’s 12-vote victory in the Perth seat of Stirling in 1974: Labor challenger Rob Mitchell won by seven votes on the first count, but a recount turned that to a 12-vote margin in favour of Bailey. Labor challenged the outcome in the Federal Court, but the determinations the court made regarding individual ballot papers actually increased Bailey’s margin to 27.
Fran Bailey retired at the 2010 election, disappointing Liberals who hoped the esteem she gained during the bushfire crisis would stand her in good stead in a difficult seat. The party appeared to do well in preselecting Cameron Caine, a Kinglake police officer credited with saving several lives during the emergency, but he was swamped by a 5.3% swing. This made it second time lucky for Labor’s Rob Mitchell, who won preselection with the support of the Bill Shorten-Stephen Conroy sub-faction of the Victorian Right. Mitchell had earlier won a seat in the state upper house province of Central Highlands at the 2002 election, before being frozen out by the electoral reforms that took effect in 2006.
The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Ben Collier, managing director of Sunbury-based information technology consultancy Collier Pereira Services.
Mr Goebbels had a club foot, was 5’5″, and had dark hair and dark eyes.
Just the sort of chap to vaunt the aryan ideal.
BTW, the discussion above appears to be a bit confused, IMHO, because posters appear to be talking about different things.
It might be useful to clarify whether the poster is talking about targetting civilians per se or whether the issue is civilians who are in the act of building, say, missiles, or whether the issue is civilians who are close enough to a military target to get killed or injured if the military target is attacked.
Guytaur
Using civilians as shields is a war crime. When will you be campaigning to bring Hamas to justice.
Guytaur
Read.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/reconsidering-the-goldstone-report-on-israel-and-war-crimes/2011/04/01/AFg111JC_story.html
And once again shut up or apologise. I am over debating tossers.
Socrates
Thank heavens I wasn’t born in Ireland, if I had been I’d have had a rough time when I was having children back in the 1970s, I’d have been a recipient of a symphysiotomy for sure. The procedure was done because Catholic doctors thought a caesarian was a form of birth control and therefore could not be allowed. It’s not surprising that the bastards responsible for this ‘Dublin declaration’ were also practitioners of this barbaric procedure. I had no idea that this could or would be done until the other day. It is horrifying. I’m not going to re-post links I put up here a few days ago, if anyone wants to know more do a search. The things I learnt about had me in tears.
In War civilians will always be killed.
It is just a realistic fact.
@kevjonno/1152
Both Hamas and Israels are at fault here – we need to irradiate war.
zoidlord@1156
You are proposing nukeing them?
Through my untrained eye and just my opinion mind you.
Unfortunately the way I see the problems of the middle east is that the cultures involved cannot accept a Mandella attitude.
They can never forgive or forget. They bear grudges for centuries and never seem to want to move the processes forward.
If there were more leaders around that part of the world who thought like Nelson Mandella then maybe one day there could be peace.
I can only wish.
If you think this situation is all Israel’s fault, you’re stupid.
If you think it’s all Hamas’ fault, you’re stupid.
Again, the only logical way to approach this thoroughly predictable skirmish is to hope they both lose.
Joe6pack@1146
I agree with you there. My idea that I posted yesterday was to let both sides let fly with as many conventional weapons as they want, until both sides have enough of war.
The only proviso is that each side can only treat the wounded and bury the dead of the other side.
You are proposing nuking them?
Nuke them .cement the area over then pump out the oil. Problems solved energy/middle east and the west will be all happy
@bemused/1157
I did suggest a Nuke the other night…
BUT if you want my best answer is? A war isn’t the answer.
[You are proposing nuking them?]
With all the A-bombs the Israelis don’t have?
Joe6pack@1161
Well I couldn’t think of how else they could be ‘irradiated’ as zoid seemed to favour.
I also find it somewhat amusing that so called international reporters are of the opinion that they are tax exempt from involvement in any skirmishes that happen in hotspots and warzones (or warzones that are about to break)when they want to sit dangbang in the middle of it.
I laughed when the ‘international reporters’ were frantically embedding themselves with front line combatants during the Gulf war. Then continued over into the blues in Iraq and Afghanistan.
When one to two of them unfortunately adds to the tally of the fallen it is like it is someones fault.
For the life of me I cant see any reason why the likes of Karen Middleton as an example – romping around the front lines in Afghanistan reporting from the front.
[Another group of Sri Lankan men has been flown home from Christmas Island.
The 50 men arrived in Australia on asylum seeker boats but the Federal Government says they did not make claims that triggered Australia’s refugee obligations]
Senator very Young must be having conniptions. 😆
[zoidlord
Posted Sunday, November 18, 2012 at 8:23 pm | Permalink
@kevjonno/1152
Both Hamas and Israels are at fault here – we need to irradiate war.]
Haapy to agree with you zoilord but will admit I have no idea how to help achieve it.
It’s funny but I have long considered myself to be more supportive of Palestinian interests than Israel’s but Guytaurs one sided postings just get my back up.
@bemused/1164
The problem is that they haven’t learnt what the west did over the WW1/2, as well as US in IRAQ/Afghanistan.
Poroti 1026 I don’t think Robbie would be happy but for you
the real one in 2011
thttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQvLoc0HN34
I think I have the right one, sorry have been out
ru, from frank – Tell Rua to answer my bloody emails re IE10
[bemused
Posted Sunday, November 18, 2012 at 5:41 pm | PERMALINK
mari@1021
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/guard-who-beat-wife-keeps-job-20121117-29iww.html
What a lovely man!!!!
The Industrial Relations Commission found there was no connection between Michael Silling’s ability to carry out his duties at Goulburn jail and his ”out-of-hours criminal history”, ordering he be returned to work.
Justice Wayne Haylen said the sacking of Mr Silling after his third conviction for domestic violence was ”harsh, unjust and unreasonable”.
Hmmmm Justice Wayne Haylen.
Rings a bell. I think former ALP MP Les Haylen had a son named Wayne.
I read it an know what you are saying, but think you would agree with my comment “a lovely man” sarcasm dripping off my words
I know Goulburn did my last 2 years of high school there at GHS
zoidlord@1168
Well in WWII I recall a few Japanese got ‘irradiated’.
@bemused/1172
Well I wouldn’t say that – they are alive today (as was visiting them earlier this year!).
But they haven’t gone to war since probably WW2 (someone can correct me!).
Leone
Agreed. Xanthippe explained what a symphisiotomy is, and that it was often performed with hacksaws. Barbaric indeed.
Professor O’Brien sounds like a complete nutter. What is going on in the Irish health system that someone like that was not only allowed to practice, but actually taught other generations of doctors? There is a lot in this case that needs investigation.
mari@1171
I had no opinion about the judge but just thought it an interesting connection. Small world and all that.
I agree the warder seems a fairly odious character but suspect the judge may have been constrained by the law.
It seems odd to me that a person with proven tendencies to violent conduct would not be deemed unsuitable for employment like that.
[Diogenes
Posted Sunday, November 18, 2012 at 6:00 pm | PERMALINK
mari
Has the local constabulary made any headway with the burglary yet?
Not really. They turned up and couldn’t find any fingerprints. Wasn’t much else they could do]
Same thing happened to us when we lived in Sydney, there is not much they can do, amazing how they got in, a very very small window in one of the bathrooms about 4 metres off the ground, police thought it may have been kids. Lucky had the TVs etc all stacked up ready to go when they were disturbed by my daughter coming home early, from school. Lucky they went out the backdoor they had opened to take out the loot, thank heavens didn’t wait around for her. She was 16 at the time
zoidlord@1173
I can only conclude you are so oblivious to what you said that you are unable to see I was taking the mickey out of you. 😛
Jeez a guard at Goulburn jail is a violent thug, what a revelation, I thought it was in the job description.
@bemused/1177
I had feeling that you were – but decided to post anyway! 😛
zoidlord@1179
😆 😆
[Don’t believe your own BS William. Or has confessions hacked into your account?]
Hahaha. Don’t look at me. You’ve brought this scorn and derision to anything you say solely by yourself! 😆
I’m really glad the Socialist Alternative “ZIONIST WAR CRIMES” element is a minority here.
leone:
Tomorrow night is definately clash of the egos. I’m just hoping (likely in vain) that OM decide to run with the Liberal leadership tension rather than the now-standard Labor leadership tensions whenever Rudd appears with his accidental-on-purpose-oh-but-they’re-so-innocent statements.
Ain’t holding my breath though.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQvLoc0HN34
Poroti here you are the 2011 Games
If the UK Tories are more closely aligned to Obama, where does this leave Abbott, Morrison, Brandis, Miranella, Pyne et al?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/us-election/9661499/US-election-2012-A-good-day-for-David-Cameron-but-a-rout-for-the-Tory-Rights-vision.html
[I’ve downloaded this book and I’ve read a few pages. Enjoyable so far.]
Thanks!
As for the Q&A tomorrow night, you know things will have really changed in the media narrative if Turnbullstoration gets more hype than Ruddstoration. 😉
Night all – off to have sweet dreams of a shocker Nielsen outlier that sends the unravelling into hyper drive. 😆
Goebells influence continues in Oz today, courtesy of Abbott’s three word slogans:
“The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly – it must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over” Goebells
[Not really. They turned up and couldn’t find any fingerprints. Wasn’t much else they could do
Same thing happened to us when we lived in Sydney]
I lived in Doncaster, Melbourne which is right next to Nth Balwyn, at that time the most burgled suburb in Melbourne, for ten years and we were never touched. All of the houses around us were burgled multiple times yet we were never touched, which situation continues to this day.
Why? We have had a succession of German Shepherds and Rottweilers who have been the most wonderful companions, and have ensured the security of our persons and property.
How do people live without pets, protectors, companions and mates such as these?
The QandA guest list is Tony Jones and the Press Gallery’s fantasy of the 2013 election protagonists. Trying to make the news rather than reporting it., Again. Rudd won’t win any friends in the ALP for this stunt.
Tony Abbott says Coalition can annihilate Labor like QLD LNP – Jeremy Pierce, Courier-Mail 14/5/2012 – http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/tony-abbott-says-federal-coalition-can-annihilate-labor-like-queensland-lnp/story-e6freoof-1226354924227 … – bwahahahahaha
rishane
You can tell your brother that Year 9 is renowned for bullying!!
[Trying to make the news rather than reporting it.]
For years qanda has done this: try to set the news cycle for the week.
No different this week.
Is it GhostWhoVotes who’ll be tweeting Nielsen tonight? Around 10pm?
The PM will be overseas again this week, so as usual Rudd goes public (Q&A, etc.). Kevin is extremely predictable. Not sure where he hides when Julia is back in the country.
muttley
friends of ours lived in Fitzroy and had much the same experience – when the dog died, in the short space of time it took them to find a new one, the place was burgled.
[Rudd won’t win any friends in the ALP for this stunt.]
Rather depends on how he performs. He could knock any challenge talk on the head easily, and deflect it back towards Turnbull and will if he has any sense.
That said, the ego’s involved must surely represent some critical mass? Rudd, Turnbull, Sloan and Jones?? Can one studio contain all that?? Ridout (who is probably going to be worth listening to) is almost just window dressing really.
All that said, the one that really annoys me is Sloan. She is an idiot who wont be happy till she gets Fiberal pre-selection i reckon. I mean..have any of you read the partisan crap this woman writes?
Sohar@1195
So Kev has advance knowledge of all the PMs movements and schedules for polling so that he can manipulate media invitations to things like Q&A weeks ahead? The man is truly omnipotent! 😀
Better put your tinfoil hat back on I think.
[absolutetwaddle
Posted Sunday, November 18, 2012 at 9:01 pm | Permalink
I’m really glad the Socialist Alternative “ZIONIST WAR CRIMES” element is a minority here.]
Michael J Rosenberg twitted all there is to say, what can you add?
There is no moral equivalency when the 4th strongest military power in the world launches attacks on refugees it has locked in a ghetto.
z
[friends of ours lived in Fitzroy and had much the same experience – when the dog died, in the short space of time it took them to find a new one, the place was burgled.]
Yes, that’s how it works. It’s quite amazing. Even a small dog with ‘personality’ is a deterrent. German Shepherds are my very favorite but they shed constantly, and Rotties are equally as good but they ‘spread the love’ with their drool. Both are brilliant with children of any age in my experience and are an excellent addition to any child’s development.
I cannot imagine life without them.