Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll’s recent run of erratic form has come to an end with a voting intention result only slightly different from last fortnight’s. However, there’s a significant move on Tony Abbott’s personal rating – and once again, it’s downwards.

James J reports Newspoll has ticked a point in the Coalition’s favour, so that they now lead 51-49 on two-party preferred. This is down to a two-point increase in their primary vote to 43%, with Labor steady on 36% and the Greens steady on 10%. There is yet again bad news for Tony Abbott on personal ratings: his approval is down three points to 27% and his disapproval is up five to 63%. This marks a new low for him on net approval, and has been matched since the inception of Newspoll (in late 1985) only by the polls which preceded the downfalls of Alexander Downer in January 1995 and John Hewson in April 1994, and several for Andrew Peacock in the lead-up to the 1990 election. Julia Gillard meanwhile is respectively up two to 37% and up one to 52%, and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 45-34 to 46-32.

Today’s Essential Research survey included its monthly personal rating questions, and these too found Abbott falling to new lows. Whereas the previous survey showed both leaders up in the immediate aftermath of Julia Gillard’s sexism and misogyny speech, the latest result has Abbott down four on approval to 33% and up four on disapproval to 58%. Gillard is steady on approval at 41% approval and down two on disapproval to 49%, and her lead as preferred prime minister is up from 43-36 to 45-32, her best result since February 2011.

Essential is also chiming better with Newspoll now on voting intention, with the Coalition’s lead now at 52-48 (down from 53-47 last week) from primary votes of 37% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Also canvassed are options on how the government might rein in the budget, with reducing or means testing the baby bonus and increasing tax for those on high incomes respectively coming on top.

Preselection news:

• Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advocate reports there are “at least” 10 candidates for the Liberal preselection in Greenway, of whom the highest profile is former Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson. However, the presumed front-runner is the candidate from 2010, Jayme Diaz, whose work as a migration lawyer and family background in the locally numerous Filipino community is believed to stand him in good stead. Diaz is aligned with the David Clarke “hard Right”, but he apparently has an opponent in Tony Abbott, who no doubt has a strong recollection of Diaz’s failure to win the crucial seat last time. Also mentioned as starters have been Ben Jackson and Brett Murray, who are associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke’s “Centre Right” faction.

• The Tasmanian Liberals have preselected Brett Whiteley, who held in state parliament from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, as their federal candidate for marginal north-western seat of Braddon. The party originally chose local businessman Michael Burr, but he withdrew for health reasons. Whiteley did not contest the original preselection, saying at the time he was focused on returning to state politics.

• Chris Johnson of the Canberra Times reports that Kate Hamilton, a former councillor in Leichhardt in inner Sydney, and local party member Stephen Darwin will join former GetUp! director Simon Sheikh in the contest for Greens preselection for the Senate in the Australian Capital Territory.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the prospect of federal executive intervention if Noreen Hay, state Wollongong MP and member for the Right, uses her influence over the local numbers to back a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones, federal member for Throsby and member of the Left.

• Don Farrell has agreed to accept relegation to the second position on Labor’s South Australian Senate ticket in deference to Penny Wong, after his victory in the state conference ballot met a hostile response within the party and without.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,942 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  2. fiona

    my own grandfather, a Methodist Minister, did all the laundry – in those days, a gigantic undertaking, taking at least a day – because he realised the strain that being a Minister’s wife was on my grandmother.

    Of course, in those days, it was unheard of for a man to do anything like that.

    The Methodist church had a rule that Ministers had to move out of a parish every three years and apparently there were always awkward moments when my grandmother would be asked by the movers how she wanted the laundry set up.

  3. Desert Fox,

    It was only $300mill in the AWB scandal. Downer could not even remember he was Foreign Minister at the RC.

  5. Desert Fox,

    [Why is there no Royal Commission into the AWU? $600,000 has vanished into thin air and Gillard is doing everything to avoid scrutiny on this subject. She set up a slush fund, (her description) for what purpose? Why didn’t she call the police when she found out what was going on? Why was money placed into her bank account on behalf of her boyfriend? (Why doesn’t she simply deny it?)
    Why does Ian Cambridge, a Gillard appointee to Fair Work Australia, demand a Royal Commission now? ]

    Because if the LNP are stupid enough to call for one if they take office in 2013, the business community will crucify them.

    It will be another “Bottom of the Harbour” exercise. Hundreds of businesses have been paying into these sort of funds for decades. In return, they get favours from Union Administrations in the line of favourable Award variations, running dead on Wage cases and a range of on the quiet agreements between each other.

    Membership of these organisations would be horrified if these deals ever came to light and there would be more than blood on the wattle.

    Your mob are playing a “very” dangerous game with their traditional support base who would be getting slightly nervous at the moment.

    This issue is likely to die very quickly now IMO as it is getting a bit too close to the mark of outing the real reason why business supported such funds.

    But carry on and let as much light in as you can. This one is a dead set loser for the LNP. Big time. 😉

  7. my say@3796


    o one more thing if any of you wher e say church of england or other denominations i would of gone in to bat for you expaining that you are just bystanders to a bigger picture that the r c will look after
    honestly as if i could do anything to change anything

    Maybe you should read what people have written instead of looking through your own slant on things. I wrote last week of the destruction of my brother’s life by a church of england vicar.

    Do you have no understanding of the pain that his suicide caused my mother, the person who sent him to the church each week. A pain she feels constantly and one that leaves her almost inconsolable on the anniversary of his death and what would have been his birthday. He died in 1996 and none of my family will ever forgive the church for knowing what the vicar was like, we were the second district that he had been accused of abusing children in. They simply moved him along after a suitable time in a church retreat.
    I came here last week and told my brother’s story and I said I wanted the RC into all religions but you come here continually defending your particular flavour of a fairy story. You must know what has been done by priests of every denomination but you want to shut your eyes to what has been done within your particular denomination.
    I hope that the RC reaches deep into the disgrace that seems to be a stinking fetid part of all religions the abuse of people.
    There are many good people doing good things inside all religions, as there are people of no religion going good for no eternal reward but for the simple desire to do good things. But the putrid vile stench that the bad inside all religions is what is turning the stomachs of people. It is time that this putrid festering sore on religions is cut out even if the hierarchy of your religion, the anglican, the mormons, and all the rest resist it. If they cannot cleanse themselves then it is up to the rest of society to clean them out. They have ruined enough lives, caused enough pain and suicides.

    Surely you would want a clean and respected religion to follow, how can you not want your religion to be free of this obscenity.

  9. Captain Obvious’

    “the alleged buggery of hundreds if not thousands of children by priests”
    I would be very surprised that overwhelmingly the RC didn’t find that Aboriginal kids were the most abused of all and not by Catholic priests but fellow Aboriginals

    But that’s a red herring. Do you believe that Australia wants a corrupt Prime Minister?

  10. [Your 3807 is pretty ordinary.]

    Why?

    I don’t think it’s unreasonable to compare bemused’s obsession with comments about Rudd to yours and my say’s reaction to comments about the catholic church. The record would appear to speak for itself on that front.

  11. haveachat

    u miss the point i am afraid

    yes of course i do
    but it not my fault
    these things happen
    i am and gg are being treated as though
    we did these things

    i say again people effected should not take their anger out on bystanders,

    dont tell me what i should think or say.
    loook here i dont have to defend my self
    i am good person i think . good mother good grandmother
    i have been effected in my life to by things
    especially by having a mental mother but i dont blame any one else for that.
    it was not her fault it was not the dr, fault my fathers fault
    i didnt get nasty to bystanders who did nothing like my aunties my grandmother did they know or understand i have no idea
    but we all have things happen in our lives we all suffer from something
    i dont blame any one
    and i try my best to be kind to all people
    as they may be suffering at the time
    i have had one trumatid year but not like some people i dont live in everyones pocket here
    i maninly come here to discuss politics
    so
    if you are upset about past happening i can change nothing
    of course i want wrong doers to be found out,
    but i and millions of other catholics have done nothing.

    as i have said before i hope none of you need an institution ran by a church
    i sad for you that that happened but it not my fault
    the same as my mum it was no ones fault i blame no one

    i hope the royal commission gives you what you want

  12. Actually clicking on the wheel does bring up a link in a new window,

    But I still think the correct DEFAULT behavior should be a new window – as it is in most other places.

  18. mysay

    [i am and gg are being treated as though
    we did these things]

    Nonsense. You are not.

    [i say again people effected should not take their anger out on bystanders]

    No one is doing that.

    [if you are upset about past happening i can change nothing]

    No one is expecting to you to.

    [but i and millions of other catholics have done nothing.]

    No one is blaming them.

    [as i have said before i hope none of you need an institution ran by a church]

    If we do, we would want to know that it was being run – as we expect all institutions in society to be – in accordance with the rules of the land.

    We would also want to know that an institution like the church is doing what we expect churches to do – protecting the innocent from harm.

    [i sad for you that that happened but it not my fault
    the same as my mum it was no ones fault i blame no one]

    Again, no one is blaming you.

    All anyone is saying here is that people, no matter who they are, who have abused or are abusing young children, should be stopped from doing so.

    The aim of the RC is to look at the whole problem of abuse, not just in the churches but in society, and work out if there are real, workable ways of minimising harm.

    In the case of the Catholic church, it is not Catholic bashing to talk about things the church itself admits has happened – that is, priests who were, by their own admission, abusing children, not only going unpunished but having their interests put ahead of those of the children concerned.

    Of course, the Catholic church was not the only church (or institution) which did this. But it is impossible to look at the problem of child abuse, and why it has gone unreported and unpunished in the past, without looking at cases like those.

    We’ve had several posters here talk about their own experiences, and explain how just the announcement of an RC – just the idea of it – has already helped them come to grips with what happened.

    mysay, you need to understand that you and the Catholic church aren’t the same thing. An attack on it is not a personal attack on you.

    And anyone, involved in any institution or organisation, understands it has its flaws and that there are matters in its past that one would rather weren’t mentioned too loudly in public places. But, if you really want any institution to thrive, you also understand that these issues must be confronted honestly and openly, so that the problems can be identified and a way forward found.

  20. zoomster
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 9:00 pm | Permalink

    scorps

    my mother ‘does’ funeral services for people (did both my in laws, which was nice).

    She once had to do one where NOBODY – not even herself – had a good word to say about the deceased.

    There was a famous Hollywood story about the funeral of one of the Cohen brothers who died. They were immensely powerful millionaire rogues who were universally despised by one and all.

    The funeral oration was to be delivered by a notoriously obsequious preacher (probably for a high price). Just as he was about to speak, a man(obviously a victim who had waited long for this day) jumped up and shouted out,
    “I dare you! I challenge you! Say one good thing about Morton Cohen!”
    The preacher looked up, a little dazed, and responded,
    “He’s dead.”

  23. The only commenters “going nuts” are those who flounce in here expecting to be the center of attention, only to find they aren’t, and so have a tanty and flounce out again.

  25. Looks like Desert Fox has headed back to the sand hills. A Royal Commission into the AWU won’t find too much in the last 20 years but could open up a Pandora’s box of shady deals with business prior to that.

    I’m sure they would just love that to have a light shone on it. Much more problem than for long dead or retired Union Officials.

  27. fess,

    As opposed to yourself who does the gratuitously smug routine.

    PB is a pot pouri of pontification, don’t you agree?

  30. Israeli leaders seek electoral advantage
    __________________________
    An attack on the Palestinians always goes down well wih the extreme right wingers in Israel
    A US Jewish writer Sternfeld writes in Prof Cole’s Blog … of the growing desperation of Netanyahu and his extremists who are engulfed by a major economic crisis at home…and how this plays into this crisis
    http://www.juancole.com/2012/11/wagging-the-dog-in-gaza-netanyahus-skirmish-of-fear-sternfeld.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+juancole%2Fymbn+%28Informed+Comment%29&utm_content=FeedBurner

  33. [Israeli leaders seek electoral advantage]

    Agreed. This is nothing more than some hardline “dick waving” to improve the government’s image for the January elections.

    I really don’t know enough about internal Israeli politics to know if the RW bloc are polling well or not right now though, to be 100% sure.

  37. My Say

    Nobody here is saying that the Catholic Church raped little girls and boys, neither are they saying that Anglican, Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist or whatever flavour of fairystory people believe in raped little children.

    What people are saying is that vile and disgusting putrid excuses for human beings raped and abused little children and everyone condemns then just like you do. Some of these have hidden themselves in organisations that are supposed to help and protect people and sadly some of these have been religious organisations.

    What people here are saying is the organisational hierarchy that represents some of these religions has protected this scum, hidden them from prosecution and has stained every religion with a stench that needs to be cleansed.

    I really don’t give a tinkers cuss whether a person worships the seven dwarfs, or postraits themselves nightly and kisses the bare arse of beelzebub, or their god shits gold coins into a bucket at the end of the rainbow. What I do care about is the right of children to live free of abuse and protected from rapists and I curse anyone that would protect those that have raped or abused children, or protect those that are protecting these rapists.

    You must live your life the way you believe is best for you as all people have to. I and no one here has the right to tell you how you should think or whether you should or should not believe in a god or a dozen gods.

    We only get one life, it is not a rehearsal for another. No one whether a priest, a brother, a vicar, a nun, a rabi, an imam, or whatever has the right to destroy other peoples lives and raping children destroys a lot of lives. These foul fetid pustules on humanity are what I hope the RC roots out.

  38. [As opposed to yourself who does the gratuitously smug routine.]

    I’m no more or less smug than anyone here.

    Not that I particularly care what commenters here think of me, but anyway.

  41. My Say,

    Everyone appears to want to tell you you’re wrong, misinformed or batty.

    I’m here to sharpen your knitting needles.

    You keep posting exactly what you like.

  43. [as i have said before i hope none of you need an institution ran by a church]

    Based on what we’ve seen, I sincerely hope I don’t need the buggers either.

  47. Carey Moore 3883 re Israeel
    _________
    Thera are a number of very good israeli-‘jewish websites that denounces the hard-line Netanyahu regime

    His problems flow from the immense costs of the illegal settlements on the West Bank on Palestinian land..all illegal…but he props them up..while cutting back on the needs of many Israeli who are hostile to him

    In addition his blatent entry into the Florida campaign in the US election obviously angered Obama ..who is no friend of Netanyahu…so his friends in the US are on the outer..they spent a fortune on Romney…so can’t expect much help from Obama

    On of the best left-wing Jewish sites is “Mondoweiss.com” from a team, in New York..who never let up on Netanyahu and his extremists
    The polls in the US show that Jewish voters went 70% for Obama which would disappoint Netanyahu and his financial backer Sheldon Adelson a billionaire casio-owner and famed union-buster who with the help of Gingrich..(.who he bankrolled.in the Primari)…set out to break the unions in the casino in dustry, He describes himself the richest Jew in the US…some claim !..and gave it’s said 70 million $ to the Romney campaign…all to no avail
    as the Dems won Nevada where Adelson runs many of the Casinos..as he does in Macau..China

  48. zoomster@3740


    On the bung hip thing, I received my disabled parking sticker the other day.

    Fat lot of use it is.

    Because I don’t need a wheelchair, the reasoning is that I don’t need a special disabled parking space (because I don’t need extra room to get out of the car).

    So the sticker I have doesn’t let me park in a disabled space. All it does it let me park in a normal space for twice as long.

    As I only needed it to get close enough to where I need to go so that I can walk there, it’s effectively useless.

    My mother is 90 yrs old and blind in 1 eye and after a stroke lost part vision in the other eye and is on warafin. We got a disabled sticker for my van and park in the handicapped spots.No wheel chair , just a walker. I use it when I go to the v8’s at Ipswich Raceway and get to park in the VIP car park right next to the Pit area. Saves me about 1km of walking from the dirt paddock with chair, camera bag and lunch/drink bag.

  49. It is in the US interest to oppose a ground war by Israel into Gaza. Any such war will break treaties and destabilise whatever stability remains in the middle east. It would tremendously speed up efforts by Iran to obtain nuclear weapons.
    Israel is truly playing with fire this time.

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