Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll’s recent run of erratic form has come to an end with a voting intention result only slightly different from last fortnight’s. However, there’s a significant move on Tony Abbott’s personal rating – and once again, it’s downwards.

James J reports Newspoll has ticked a point in the Coalition’s favour, so that they now lead 51-49 on two-party preferred. This is down to a two-point increase in their primary vote to 43%, with Labor steady on 36% and the Greens steady on 10%. There is yet again bad news for Tony Abbott on personal ratings: his approval is down three points to 27% and his disapproval is up five to 63%. This marks a new low for him on net approval, and has been matched since the inception of Newspoll (in late 1985) only by the polls which preceded the downfalls of Alexander Downer in January 1995 and John Hewson in April 1994, and several for Andrew Peacock in the lead-up to the 1990 election. Julia Gillard meanwhile is respectively up two to 37% and up one to 52%, and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 45-34 to 46-32.

Today’s Essential Research survey included its monthly personal rating questions, and these too found Abbott falling to new lows. Whereas the previous survey showed both leaders up in the immediate aftermath of Julia Gillard’s sexism and misogyny speech, the latest result has Abbott down four on approval to 33% and up four on disapproval to 58%. Gillard is steady on approval at 41% approval and down two on disapproval to 49%, and her lead as preferred prime minister is up from 43-36 to 45-32, her best result since February 2011.

Essential is also chiming better with Newspoll now on voting intention, with the Coalition’s lead now at 52-48 (down from 53-47 last week) from primary votes of 37% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Also canvassed are options on how the government might rein in the budget, with reducing or means testing the baby bonus and increasing tax for those on high incomes respectively coming on top.

Preselection news:

Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advocate reports there are “at least” 10 candidates for the Liberal preselection in Greenway, of whom the highest profile is former Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson. However, the presumed front-runner is the candidate from 2010, Jayme Diaz, whose work as a migration lawyer and family background in the locally numerous Filipino community is believed to stand him in good stead. Diaz is aligned with the David Clarke “hard Right”, but he apparently has an opponent in Tony Abbott, who no doubt has a strong recollection of Diaz’s failure to win the crucial seat last time. Also mentioned as starters have been Ben Jackson and Brett Murray, who are associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke’s “Centre Right” faction.

• The Tasmanian Liberals have preselected Brett Whiteley, who held in state parliament from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, as their federal candidate for marginal north-western seat of Braddon. The party originally chose local businessman Michael Burr, but he withdrew for health reasons. Whiteley did not contest the original preselection, saying at the time he was focused on returning to state politics.

Chris Johnson of the Canberra Times reports that Kate Hamilton, a former councillor in Leichhardt in inner Sydney, and local party member Stephen Darwin will join former GetUp! director Simon Sheikh in the contest for Greens preselection for the Senate in the Australian Capital Territory.

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the prospect of federal executive intervention if Noreen Hay, state Wollongong MP and member for the Right, uses her influence over the local numbers to back a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones, federal member for Throsby and member of the Left.

• Don Farrell has agreed to accept relegation to the second position on Labor’s South Australian Senate ticket in deference to Penny Wong, after his victory in the state conference ballot met a hostile response within the party and without.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,942 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 77 of 79
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  1. don@3776


    don@3771


    zoomster@3766




    scorps


    my mother ‘does’ funeral services for people (did both my in laws, which was nice).

    She once had to do one where NOBODY – not even herself – had a good word to say about the deceased.



    There was a prominent Liberal politician who died who was a bit like that, can’t remember his name…

    Sir Philip Lynch, died 1984 now I just have to remember the journalist, he was the top smh political journalist of his time.

    Alan Ramsey.

    It was an absolute classic. The best obituary I have ever read.

  2. [This little black duck
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 9:53 pm | PERMALINK
    If I had been at the CNC together it would still have been going. Trust me. Bastards / Bitches!]

    Don’t come the “raw prawn with me” you turned us down for some trivial reason???? No excuses will be accepted for the next get together trivial or not!

  3. Mari,

    [Don’t come the “raw prawn with me” you turned us down for some trivial reason???? No excuses will be accepted for the next get together trivial or not!]

    What’s more, I shall hold TLBD (and all other Canberran and near-Canberran PBers) to their promise of a witan when I’m up there in the second week of December.

  4. MsAdventure@3802


    Cudchewer and Confessions

    If you hold the mouse cursor over the link and click the WHEEL it will open in a new tab.

    The wheel does what it is programmed to do. Go through the desktop.

  5. Gosh, missed this:

    [Goodness me, now you are frothing like GG.]

    Total, hilarious projection! 😆

    You react literally instantaneously to a throw-away remark about a well-documented phenomenon in Ruddstoration in the same way that my say and GG react to any remark, no matter how innocuous about the catholic church, and I’m the one frothing like GG?

    Too funny.

  6. At some distance, this is a Southern Baptist view
    http://www.christianity.com/christian-life/political-and-social-issues/mormonism-is-not-christianity-11628184.html

    Don’t see a problem with this. No organisation is happy about competition on the same turf.

    Doesn’t change the fact that TCLDS is just as much Christian as any other.

    Same book, same hymns, same Holy Communion (but with water, not wine) but similar to the Christadelphians, a strong leaning towards the structure of the Old Testament. Scripture from the book of Mormon is rarely read.

    They are just one of many that came out of the south after the trauma of the Civil War and are in competition with each other, Much the same as the protestant churches originating from europe.

    I have a pretty good idea of their doctrine having been one for about 25 years and a catholic for thirty odd years before that.

    I don’t know why people are getting so hung up about the differences between the Christian religions. They all basically preach the same stuff but with slight differentiations to try and seem relevant to their flock.

    I get a good laugh regarding the Christians, Moslems and Jews having ding dong differences and even wars regarding their differences and yet they all worship the same deity!

    Makes my head spin.

  7. MsAdventure@3802


    Cudchewer and Confessions

    If you hold the mouse cursor over the link and click the WHEEL it will open in a new tab.

    A word of caution.
    Mouse buttons etc can be configured to do different things and browsers can be configured too.
    You need to check carefully.

  8. fiona@3789


    Don,

    Just.. exactly.. what… is… wrong.. with.. leaving the pegs on the clothesline?


    Basic science AND economics: the more exposure that the pegs have to the weather (doesn’t matter if they are wooden or plastic) the faster they deteriorate.

    And except in this respect, my dad is eminently sensible.

    He’s a lot smarter than even you give him credit for.

    Life is too short to put away the pegs from the clothesline, then cart them out and put them on the line again. A new set of pegs every five years is, what, a few dollars?

    Pay the money, it is worth it. The pegs are where you want them at all times.

    You pay vastly more than that in order to have on standby your television(s), sound system, microwave, wifi system, electric clock and radio in the bedroom, telephone, air conditioner, on and on.

    I say again, life is too short. This is depression mentality, saving rubber bands and string.

  9. zoomster:

    FWIW I think Crook will lose the seat. A shame as I think he’s been a far better local member than Tuckey ever was, and because when nominally safe Liberal seats are Liberal, voters get ignored.

    Not so with Crook, who has been a breath of fresh air here.

  10. Why is there no Royal Commission into the AWU? $600,000 has vanished into thin air and Gillard is doing everything to avoid scrutiny on this subject. She set up a slush fund, (her description) for what purpose? Why didn’t she call the police when she found out what was going on? Why was money placed into her bank account on behalf of her boyfriend? (Why doesn’t she simply deny it?)
    Why does Ian Cambridge, a Gillard appointee to Fair Work Australia, demand a Royal Commission now?

    Who do you think is less corrupt, Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott?

    Note :The 2004 Royal Commission into Centenary House involved how much rent should be paid per square foot, a substantially less figure than that of the AWU.

  11. My major problem with the click-the-wheel to open a new tab is ending up with 20 tabs open and then remembering to read each one. Especially in the morning with BKs links

  12. mari:

    I think we’ll have to have a PB publication of all the get-togethers around the country. I’m sure george will lend his talents to assist. 🙂

  13. don,

    Leaving aside, the hedonistic aspect, how is Oz faring?

    At my ripe old, I have the luxury of not caring much about a hoot about what is left for me. That is focussing my attention much more on what that which is about to come for my progeny.

  14. [lizzie
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 10:09 pm | PERMALINK
    don

    You mean I must throw away OH’s collection of paper clips???]

    No please anything but the paper clips, well after that contribution think I will go off to bed

  15. MsAdventure:

    Once you pin the PB tab as an App Tab, you don’t have to do anything with wheels, multiple pages etc. Every link clicked on here (except Crikey links of course) will automatically open in a new tab.

    It really is the easiest way.

  16. [
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 10:10 pm | PERMALINK
    mari:

    I think we’ll have to have a PB publication of all the get-togethers around the country. I’m sure george will lend his talents to assist.]

    What a good idea!

  17. Don,

    [I say again, life is too short. This is depression mentality, saving rubber bands and string.]

    Are you asking my father to forego his chief pleasure in life?

  18. RIGHT CLICK on your mouse, you lot, for a “another tab” or “another window”.

    I give courses for absolute beginners. Care to join?

  19. [ fiona
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 9:38 pm | Permalink
    ..

    In our formerly two females:one male household, the rule was (and remains) both the toilet seat AND the lid are replaced. That way everybody gets to share the chore.
    ]

    That just sounds like work for work’s sake.

  20. Don,

    [You pay vastly more than that in order to have on standby your television(s), sound system, microwave, wifi system, electric clock and radio in the bedroom, telephone, air conditioner, on and on.]

    Moreover, my father has no Scots ancestry whatsoever, and doesn’t believe in any of those standby appliances. They are all religiously switched off at the powerpoint whenever not in use. What’s more, my mother takes the battery out of her wristwatch every evening, and reinstalls it in the morning (and I’m not kidding).

  21. Actually, perhaps the O’Connor situation is one for Mumble’s blog. Brent always goes on about his ‘Sophomore Surge’ theory for first-termers, yet has there been a case in recent electoral history where the ‘sophomore’ occupied a seat which had had no polling at all in which to form any opinion?

  22. Fiona,
    I’m younger than most here, and I have to admit I don’t do heaps without discussing with the better half. Often I simply don’t know what needs to be done, or I’m worried that I’ll stuff it up. When we have our big clean-ups she is definitely in charge-I do what I’m told. I’ll pretty much do anything I need to, though.
    I cook most nights, not very well, and I do the washing up more often than not. And I make lunches for us to take to work as well.
    Honestly a lot of the cleaning and housework gets done in my absence-I do the weekly shopping with little one in tow, which allows my wife to get stuck into it without being distracted by an energetic toddler or by a clueless husband asking what to do next.
    It works for us. She sees what needs to be done, I tend to miss it.
    Anyway, dishes need doing. And the recycling box looks a little full…

  23. TLBD your way opens a menu then you have to select ‘open in new tab’, mine doesn’t, just opens the link in a tab and saves a step.

  24. [Desert Fox
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    Why is there no Royal Commission into the AWU?
    ]

    Is this the sum total of the Liberal parties contribution to public debate in 2012?

  25. The one feature I would like to see back here is the ‘show all’ pages. That way makes searching using ‘find’ so easy when hunting for a particular poster or post subject. Instead of having to click page after page, just scroll straight down.

  26. AJ Canberra,

    More power to both of you!

    My inclination is that it’s more a nurture than a nature divide: my paternal grandmother suffered a severe stroke when my father was approx 11, and he and his next brother up effectively had the sole care of her and of the household for the next 3 years until she died – no fancy social security stuff back in the 1930s.

    So he learned how to fend for himself, how to look after other people, and – most importantly – how to do this weird planning stuff that mostly women have had to do from time immemorial.

    As I said, somewhat of a paragon.

    So for you, AJ Canberra, it’s likely to be more of an intensive learning process, and please for your own good and that of your child/ren it’s an exercise well worth learning.

    Just one little hint that I will give you: if you are ever jointly cooking something, take care that you don’t wash up the saucepan where some stock has been reducing for ages … 🙂

  27. [I simply don’t know what needs to be done, or I’m worried that I’ll stuff it up.]
    Do your stuff as you think right. Worrying is crap. If your OH has a problem with your stuff you best sort it.

    My OH did the household for 25 years. Now, I’m doing it. No issues here.

  28. Talk about funny. Kids came home today an were madly talking about The Sex Pistols. Apparently they had an in depth discussion about anarchy and how bad the behaviour of the band members were.

    I said yeah some of them were pretty bad, others were ok, and that they should remember that it was entertainment and what they presented to the world was not necessarily who they were but for some bands the way they behaved was a deliberate act.

    Upon which I was told no, the teacher said they were really, really bad people. I told them that I had dinner with John Lydon when he was in another band after he was in The Sex Pistols after a Sydney gig and he was a real gentleman to my girlfriend and I. Even putting us in a taxi and paying the driver to ensure we got home safe.

    The cherubs were shocked. I got a huge lecture about how I shouldn’t spend time with really bad people and that my Mum wasn’t going to be happy about it!

  29. Why is there no Royal Commission into the AWU? $600,000 has vanished into thin air…

    Desert Fox answered hir own question.

    But it’s informative to see that in Lib-bot land the alleged buggery of hundreds if not thousands of children by priests is an equivalent outrage to the alleged mis-use of $600,000.

  30. Hi Fess,

    I always thought I treated you with kindness and respect.

    It appears you now believe that standing up for proper process and considered opinion constitutes frothing at the mouth.

    It’s good to know your fair weather friends.

    Cheers.

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