Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll’s recent run of erratic form has come to an end with a voting intention result only slightly different from last fortnight’s. However, there’s a significant move on Tony Abbott’s personal rating – and once again, it’s downwards.

James J reports Newspoll has ticked a point in the Coalition’s favour, so that they now lead 51-49 on two-party preferred. This is down to a two-point increase in their primary vote to 43%, with Labor steady on 36% and the Greens steady on 10%. There is yet again bad news for Tony Abbott on personal ratings: his approval is down three points to 27% and his disapproval is up five to 63%. This marks a new low for him on net approval, and has been matched since the inception of Newspoll (in late 1985) only by the polls which preceded the downfalls of Alexander Downer in January 1995 and John Hewson in April 1994, and several for Andrew Peacock in the lead-up to the 1990 election. Julia Gillard meanwhile is respectively up two to 37% and up one to 52%, and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 45-34 to 46-32.

Today’s Essential Research survey included its monthly personal rating questions, and these too found Abbott falling to new lows. Whereas the previous survey showed both leaders up in the immediate aftermath of Julia Gillard’s sexism and misogyny speech, the latest result has Abbott down four on approval to 33% and up four on disapproval to 58%. Gillard is steady on approval at 41% approval and down two on disapproval to 49%, and her lead as preferred prime minister is up from 43-36 to 45-32, her best result since February 2011.

Essential is also chiming better with Newspoll now on voting intention, with the Coalition’s lead now at 52-48 (down from 53-47 last week) from primary votes of 37% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Also canvassed are options on how the government might rein in the budget, with reducing or means testing the baby bonus and increasing tax for those on high incomes respectively coming on top.

Preselection news:

• Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advocate reports there are “at least” 10 candidates for the Liberal preselection in Greenway, of whom the highest profile is former Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson. However, the presumed front-runner is the candidate from 2010, Jayme Diaz, whose work as a migration lawyer and family background in the locally numerous Filipino community is believed to stand him in good stead. Diaz is aligned with the David Clarke “hard Right”, but he apparently has an opponent in Tony Abbott, who no doubt has a strong recollection of Diaz’s failure to win the crucial seat last time. Also mentioned as starters have been Ben Jackson and Brett Murray, who are associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke’s “Centre Right” faction.

• The Tasmanian Liberals have preselected Brett Whiteley, who held in state parliament from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, as their federal candidate for marginal north-western seat of Braddon. The party originally chose local businessman Michael Burr, but he withdrew for health reasons. Whiteley did not contest the original preselection, saying at the time he was focused on returning to state politics.

• Chris Johnson of the Canberra Times reports that Kate Hamilton, a former councillor in Leichhardt in inner Sydney, and local party member Stephen Darwin will join former GetUp! director Simon Sheikh in the contest for Greens preselection for the Senate in the Australian Capital Territory.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the prospect of federal executive intervention if Noreen Hay, state Wollongong MP and member for the Right, uses her influence over the local numbers to back a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones, federal member for Throsby and member of the Left.

• Don Farrell has agreed to accept relegation to the second position on Labor’s South Australian Senate ticket in deference to Penny Wong, after his victory in the state conference ballot met a hostile response within the party and without.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,942 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 79 of 79
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  2. [Gratuitous slips and zippers that don’t know how to close]

    Is this some kind of Jenny Craig weight loss FAIL fantasy? Cause it ain’t ringing any bells with me.

    😆

  4. GG 3900
    Do you ever get tired of repeating the same silly offensive comments to so many on this site
    Genuine question !
    I can’t remember you ever making a comment of value
    just snide comments and abuse

    You’ve had a big task defending Pell and Netanyahu in the one week

  7. Desert Fox, what about a RC into Howard and wife spending $20 MILLION Tax payers money , on flying around the world in 11 years ? That disappeared too.

  14. You know, a funny thing happened last night at the Emmylou Harris concert I went to last night in Sydney.

    In the banter between songs she mentioned how being on the road for so long, it meant she had to do a pre vote for the US presidential election. She laughed and said it would be no surprise who she voted for.
    There was huge applause which amazed me in what in theory would have been a 50-50 audience.

    She then launched into a bit of a monologue about how amazing Obama was, what a brilliant man he is and how lucky etc the world was to have such a progressive, intelligent black man as president. What surprised me was the audience reaction. They went nuts.Cheering her all the way.

    I was amazed at the reaction. At that moment it really got me thinking that maybe the progressive movement/govts are really on the ascendent and that people are sick of the negativity of the conservatives.
    Oh at 64, Emmylou is still a babe.

  16. Absolutetwaddle

    [It’s funny how (for example) a Catholic might have the gall to mock Mormons for the American Jesus thing but simultaneously believe they are LITERALLY eating the flesh of Christ every Sunday]

    I know it was ages ago in this forum but absolute twaddle writes absolute twaddle.

    Catholics do not “believe” they are LITERALLY eating the flesh and blood of Christ, unless they are cannibals.

    They believe in the REAL presence of Christ. It is a belief that the Eucharistic celebration is “outside” time and when celiberated makes the universal actions of Christ real today.

    It may be similar to the Aboriginal concept of “dreaming” whereby rituals now make real ‘now’ the creation reality.

  19. Nate Silver’s research in the NY Times re Gay vote
    _________________________________
    Perhaps it’s no suprise but Gays voted nearly 80% for Obama

    One wonders why any Gay would vote for the Repubs with their bigoted/religious views on gay matters
    Still the support would have been worth many millions of votes to Obama
    The poll shows the Gay pop at 5%..and would have been inportant in many close state votes

    cccchttp://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

  21. swamprat,

    [ Catholics do not “believe” they are LITERALLY eating the flesh and blood of Christ, unless they are cannibals.

    They believe in the REAL presence of Christ. It is a belief that the Eucharistic celebration is “outside” time and when celiberated makes the universal actions of Christ real today. ]

    Been a while since you read your missal it seems. Dust it off and have another look.
    What you wrote there is a heap of ………….

  25. scorpio @ 3921

    [Been a while since you read your missal it seems. Dust it off and have another look.
    What you wrote there is a heap of …………]

    No idea what you are saying… The missal is a book of ritual, not a theology, but maybe t you are not referring to that.

  26. swamprat,

    It outlines the Eucharistic celebration as instructed by Christ at the last supper as written in the New Testament.

    I can’t imagine “any” Catholics, or Christians generally for that matter, being happy to accept some philosophical or other translation of the Sacrament of the Eucharist.

    But you are welcome to any interpretation that you wish to follow but they would not be the traditional interpretation.

    I’ve got no intention to give your issue any more oxygen than I have so far.

  27. swamprat –

    That’s my understanding of transubstantiation. If you have a more acceptable/progressive/modern view that’s great but it doesn’t change the fact lots of Catholics believe the Eucharist is Christ’s flesh and blood.

    Literally.

    As for your explanation, I found it to be esoteric gobbledygook but essentially that’s what we’re discussing here so I forgive you.:)

  28. swamprat,

    [ The missal is a book of ritual, ]

    Sure! It is based totally on the New Testament and the words/teachings of Jesus Christ. Most of the rituals as you call them, word for word to Scripture.

    Are you saying that they are open to interpretation? If so that then casts a shadow over the reliability of those rituals, doesn’t it?

    Anyway, enough for me. Off to bed. God bless and be good to each other.

  29. Laurie Oakes:

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/opposition-leader-tony-abbott-learns-to-fight-smarter/story-fn56baaq-1226518420071

    The premise of it is that now Abbott plays Nice Guy because he is becoming unpopular for being too negative.

    But wasn’t he supposed to be such an effective opposition leader by being so confrontational and relentless in the first place? So he ditches what was supposedly working and plays hippy? Hmmmm, good luck with that …

  31. 3926

    I remember there was a poll about religion in America surveying knowledge about various different areas by religion and 43% of people identifying as Catholic did not know about the Catholic Church`s teachings on transubstantiation and this was a higher proportion than the proportion of Atheists who did knot know.

  32. Still that post did make me laugh.

    “It’s not Christ’s flesh and blood! How absurd! It’s ACTUALLY an eternal “representation” of Christ that exists outside of the space-time continuum (in cracker and wine form). Duh!”

    Oh ok. NOW it sounds perfectly plausible. What was I thinking comparing such a reasonable-sounding supernatural superstition to the Mormon faith?

    Good night. Crackers and cask wine be with you all!

  34. Why must people always assume the worst interpretation on any subject I suggest that it is done to put their particular spin on a topic and that the interest in the truth is if not nonexistent is extremely limited.

    We have Desert Fox @#3812 posting …
    ”She set up a slush fund, (her description) for what purpose?” as though a slush fund is always a dishonest approach to an issue and he the asks the idiotic question “for what purpose”.

    A quick search found the following definitions of a” slush fund”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slush_fund
    A slush fund, colloquially, is an auxiliary monetary account or a reserve fund.

    The term slush fund is used in accounting to describe a general ledger account in which all manner of transactions can be posted to commingled funds and “loose” monies by debits and credits cancelling each other out.

    All through my life I have had a number of “slush funds” operating for particular purposes and not one of them broke any law. Even today well into retirement I have a number of such funds operating because it is of benefit for me to do so.

    As for that stupid question by Desert Fox, “for what purpose?” – well the answer was because the client wanted it that way. All she had to do was ascertain that it was not for illegal purposes and the rest was none of her business.

    So it is clear to see that Desert Fox is talking out of his/her nether region and doing nothing by showing his/her ignorance

    As for the question “Who do you think is less corrupt, Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott? I consider neither to be corrupt though I believe that Abbott has scant regard for the truth and will say anything (just like a 6 year old) to either ingratiate himself or get himself out of trouble. As for Centenary House, I do not believe that there was any corruption involved but if, for the sake of argument we assume there is, it has nothing to do with Gillard.

    This is just sleazy mud throwing by Desert Fox. He/she is hoping some mud will stick but alas as far as I am concerned it is Desert Fox who had show that he is somewhat less than ethical.

  36. [Desert Fox
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    Frednk,

    Do you think it’s satisfactory that 600,000 can vanish from a union and no one knows why?]

    Quite frankly Desert Fox I am completly fed up with the Liberal party dirt unit.

  37. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    And the SMH continues to look under the rocks for spiders.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/catholic-churchs-secret-sex-files-20121116-29hkb.html
    Another Liberal Incubator comes under scrutiny for misogynistic behaviour inculcation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/student-tells-of-college-rape-joke-and-groping-20121116-29hj9.html
    Do I detect an element of ridicule of Tone in this article?
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-proposes-esafety-watchdog-to-combat-cyberbullying-20121116-29gm7.html
    A good AFR article on Abbott connection with the Catholic church.
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/catholic_connection_weighs_on_abbott_bJRmFz4xMshh9MGtqvhPfO
    Richard Ackland writes about last week’s decision to reduce the penalties on some James Hardie directors.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/morality-question-as-dust-will-never-settle-20121115-29eqv.html
    Mike Carlton magnificently excoriates Pell in this contribution.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/galling-defiance-amid-the-shame-20121116-29hb9.html
    Leunig has a cartoon of a classical bent.

    Ron Tandberg continues on the same subject.

  40. GG Have you read the SMH this morning about your heroes. Some of us deal in facts about criminal behaviour. Others support the criminals. Everybody here knows which side you are on. Suffer the little children, indeed.

  41. swamp rat correct

    o dear o deary me

    why do intelegent catholics have to keep educating
    we dont of course if people stuck to what this site is
    politics
    cheers

  42. [lizzie
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 10:09 pm | PERMALINK
    don

    You mean I must throw away OH’s collection of paper clips???]

    You use the gently, gently approach. First move them to a different place. Then to another, closer to the door. When he can no longer find them, he will start another pile.

    Then ditch the original pile. At least it keeps the whole thing under control.

    [This little black duck
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 10:11 pm | PERMALINK
    don,

    Leaving aside, the hedonistic aspect, how is Oz faring?

    At my ripe old, I have the luxury of not caring much about a hoot about what is left for me. That is focussing my attention much more on what that which is about to come for my progeny.]

    My son gave me a birthday present when I expressed discouragement about the state of my shed, full of useless junk but which I couldn’t face sorting through.

    It was a skip. It was only there for a week, and it was parked just outside the roller door of the shed.

    It was cathartic, tossing stuff out that I knew in my heart of hearts I would never actually repair or fix up or put back into useful service or might need someday.

    I thought it was way too big, but I filled it to the brim and over.

    [lizzie
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 10:11 pm | PERMALINK
    And biros that no longer work?

    And cardboard boxes that might come in handy for something?]

    YES, chuck the lot!

    [
    Fiona:
    Moreover, my father has no Scots ancestry whatsoever, and doesn’t believe in any of those standby appliances. They are all religiously switched off at the powerpoint whenever not in use. What’s more, my mother takes the battery out of her wristwatch every evening, and reinstalls it in the morning (and I’m not kidding).]

    But…. but… the microwave has to be reprogrammed with the time when it is switched off! I believe you (because it is you) when you say you are not kidding about the watch, but that is unbelievable! I hate to reprogram my watch when daylight saving comes and goes!

    Some clocks such as watering timers I don’t change for DS, they just come on an hour later or earlier as applicable.

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