Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll’s recent run of erratic form has come to an end with a voting intention result only slightly different from last fortnight’s. However, there’s a significant move on Tony Abbott’s personal rating – and once again, it’s downwards.

James J reports Newspoll has ticked a point in the Coalition’s favour, so that they now lead 51-49 on two-party preferred. This is down to a two-point increase in their primary vote to 43%, with Labor steady on 36% and the Greens steady on 10%. There is yet again bad news for Tony Abbott on personal ratings: his approval is down three points to 27% and his disapproval is up five to 63%. This marks a new low for him on net approval, and has been matched since the inception of Newspoll (in late 1985) only by the polls which preceded the downfalls of Alexander Downer in January 1995 and John Hewson in April 1994, and several for Andrew Peacock in the lead-up to the 1990 election. Julia Gillard meanwhile is respectively up two to 37% and up one to 52%, and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 45-34 to 46-32.

Today’s Essential Research survey included its monthly personal rating questions, and these too found Abbott falling to new lows. Whereas the previous survey showed both leaders up in the immediate aftermath of Julia Gillard’s sexism and misogyny speech, the latest result has Abbott down four on approval to 33% and up four on disapproval to 58%. Gillard is steady on approval at 41% approval and down two on disapproval to 49%, and her lead as preferred prime minister is up from 43-36 to 45-32, her best result since February 2011.

Essential is also chiming better with Newspoll now on voting intention, with the Coalition’s lead now at 52-48 (down from 53-47 last week) from primary votes of 37% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Also canvassed are options on how the government might rein in the budget, with reducing or means testing the baby bonus and increasing tax for those on high incomes respectively coming on top.

Preselection news:

• Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advocate reports there are “at least” 10 candidates for the Liberal preselection in Greenway, of whom the highest profile is former Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson. However, the presumed front-runner is the candidate from 2010, Jayme Diaz, whose work as a migration lawyer and family background in the locally numerous Filipino community is believed to stand him in good stead. Diaz is aligned with the David Clarke “hard Right”, but he apparently has an opponent in Tony Abbott, who no doubt has a strong recollection of Diaz’s failure to win the crucial seat last time. Also mentioned as starters have been Ben Jackson and Brett Murray, who are associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke’s “Centre Right” faction.

• The Tasmanian Liberals have preselected Brett Whiteley, who held in state parliament from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, as their federal candidate for marginal north-western seat of Braddon. The party originally chose local businessman Michael Burr, but he withdrew for health reasons. Whiteley did not contest the original preselection, saying at the time he was focused on returning to state politics.

• Chris Johnson of the Canberra Times reports that Kate Hamilton, a former councillor in Leichhardt in inner Sydney, and local party member Stephen Darwin will join former GetUp! director Simon Sheikh in the contest for Greens preselection for the Senate in the Australian Capital Territory.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the prospect of federal executive intervention if Noreen Hay, state Wollongong MP and member for the Right, uses her influence over the local numbers to back a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones, federal member for Throsby and member of the Left.

• Don Farrell has agreed to accept relegation to the second position on Labor’s South Australian Senate ticket in deference to Penny Wong, after his victory in the state conference ballot met a hostile response within the party and without.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,942 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Good day.

    RC is happening.

    Newspoll fig good (keeps Abbott in charge of the nutter party — an asset for ALP, apart from all the good stuff they’re doing, of course) but ALP more than competitive!!

  2. SO

    [If they are crap allegations shouldn’t that become apparent pretty quickly?]

    No, it’s really hard to investigate these crimes. It’s really hard to know whether kids are telling the truth or not. And the medical evidence is seldom conclusive.

    And there can be a lot of damage done by investigating false allegations.

  7. Newspoll 51-49 2PP LNP PV LNP 43, ALP 36 Greens 10 PPM: Gillard 46, Abbott 32 – i will take that as BISONian, no prob at all

  8. Gillard netsat -15%

    Abbott netsat. -36% !!!

    I will say it again; how long can the Libs afford to have their vote weighted down like an anchor by this turkey.

  9. Dio, previous thread:

    [I agree that all allegations regarding organisational abuse or by people in protective roles should be mandatorily referred.]

    This report indicates that SA has the most far-reaching laws for mandatory notifications:

    Who is mandated to notify?

    SA:

    [Doctors; pharmacists; registered or enrolled nurses; dentists; psychologists; police officers; community corrections officers; social workers; teachers; family day care providers; employees/volunteers in a government department, agency or instrumentality, or a local government or non-government agency that provides health, welfare, education, sporting or recreational, child care or residential services wholly or partly for children; ministers of religion (with the exception of disclosures made in the confessional); employees or volunteers]

    NT however allows for anyone with reasonable grounds. How to get around the confessional stuff though?

    http://www.aifs.gov.au/cfca/pubs/factsheets/a141787/index.html

  11. I bet there will be a Congo line of high profile Catholics lining up to give evidence at a royal commission…… First in line spreads the grime, last in line does the time.

  13. Newspoll 51-49 2PP LNP PV LNP 43, ALP 36 PPM: Gillard 46, Abbott 32 – after being dead, cremated and buried by the #MSMhacks, PM is back!!

  15. Poppycock:

    – ALP primary should be 38%.

    – Greens primary should be 8%.

    – Coalition primary 43% correct for now.

    – Undecides will fall more to Labor.

    – Corrected 2PP = ALP 51/ LNP 49.

    😎

  21. Diogenes,

    [… how long can the Libs afford to have their vote weighted down like an anchor by this turkey]

    As long as it takes, as far as I’m concerned!

  23. [William: Good on Don Farrell. Better late than never ]
    Yeah, just wait until the Government gets a heap of crap publicity for its ill-treatment of Wong before bothering to correct a problem that should’ve never been a problem in the first place.

  24. I thought this would be about right for the polls, and that the 41% LNP primary vote last time was a bit too low for the average.

  25. say

    Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

    well i see the catholic bashing is still going on

    you know who your are,

    give a rest will you, it doesnt realy seem very educated

    to talk about one institution alone,

    no wonder state aid is an issue will that be next

    some people are addicted to finding fault wth the catholic

    church and chrstians as a whole

    but i bet all of you celebrate christmas

  26. [I will say it again; how long can the Libs afford to have their vote weighted down like an anchor by this turkey.]
    They won’t get rid of him while the 2pp is still tied or Coalition in front.

    Labor needs to string together a few clear 2pp leads to really put pressure on Abbott. It wouldn’t take much, because Abbott’s personal ratings are so low it would be easy for Hockey or someone to start a campaign against him.

  28. – ALP primary should be 38%.

    – Greens primary should be 8%.

    – Coalition primary 43% correct for now.

    – Undecides will fall more to Labor.

    – Corrected 2PP = ALP 51/ LNP 49.

    Centre -I like your figures better. It obviously includes all the mobile phones that newspoll didn’t bother with 🙂

  29. [but i bet all of you celebrate christmas]

    I have always understood that the most important event of the Christian year is Easter.

    But then, I’m just a little ignorant non-Catholic, aren’t I?

  31. Centre,

    Have you got some evidence to provide those figures, or are they simply your own prediction on polls?

    I don’t think it’s fair to say undecides fall more to Labor, you cannot know because they did not give their say.

    On another note, there is still a while to go before the election. Polls are still subjected to change then and maybe more undecides will choose Labor.

  33. Dio,

    [I will say it again; how long can the Libs afford to have their vote weighted down like an anchor by this turkey.]

    I am hoping 12 months!

  34. my say

    [some people are addicted to finding fault wth the catholic

    church and chrstians as a whole

    but i bet all of you celebrate christmas]

    I think it’s time that YOU gave it a rest. That is a ridiculous comment from you.

  35. Finns

    Hold on to you flippers.

    There’s a while to go yet and I haven’t been wrong for ages (let’s exclude that unfortunate typo to Puffy a few weeks back).

    The Whale and Dolphin Conservation Society looks pretty good if it comes to that.

  36. So – Newspoll at 51-49, Essential at 52-48, Neilsen at 52-48, Galaxy at 53-47, Morgan at 52-48.

    That’s a tight bunch of polls there. The Neilsen is a bit out of date though.

  38. William and Poroti Think this definitely deserves a play of Hallelujah Chorus only at 8 though , waiting for the demise of one Rupert Murdoch to get to maximum

  41. @frankscan65 @GenGusface @GeorgeBludger It wont be long before Abbott enters The Romney’s Territory – 2PP 53-47 to Labor – It’s THE 47%

  42. The Essential results are interesting.

    Abbott’s satisfaction trending worse. 🙂
    Julia’s trending better. 🙂

    Surprised the NDIS doesn’t rate as higher priority?

    Cutting the baby bonus popular, but that may be partly because of the Govt funded parental leave?

    Interesting how similar the level of the responses to the priorities questions are across the political spectrum.

  43. [So – Newspoll at 51-49, Essential at 52-48, Neilsen at 52-48, Galaxy at 53-47, Morgan at 52-48.

    That’s a tight bunch of polls there. The Neilsen is a bit out of date though.]
    Yeah heaps better than it was. But if you have Labor on 51 or 52 you will get COMPLETELY different reporting of the results. That’s when the REAL pressure on Abbott would start. The fact the Coalition still leads means there’s less media attention on Abbott’s horrible personal ratings.

  44. [some people are addicted to finding fault wth the catholic

    church and chrstians as a whole

    but i bet all of you celebrate christmas]

    Celebrating xmas has nothing to do with either wanting a royal commission into institutional child sex abuse or not, nor does finding fault with the catholic church necessarily mean anything to do with xmas.

    This is very illogical, my say.

  45. [Diogenes
    Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 10:35 pm | PERMALINK
    but i bet all of you celebrate christmas

    My family doesn’t.

    We celebrate the Festive Season.
    ]

    Christmas is a very commercial holiday, I don’t think it makes much difference what you do on the day or how you celebrate it. It’s just a good day for BBQs and the beach.

  49. Abbott’s worst approval, worst disapproval, worst netsat ever.

    Worst netsat for an Opposition Leader since Crean.

    Worst disapproval for an Opposition Leader since Downer.

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