Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll’s recent run of erratic form has come to an end with a voting intention result only slightly different from last fortnight’s. However, there’s a significant move on Tony Abbott’s personal rating – and once again, it’s downwards.

James J reports Newspoll has ticked a point in the Coalition’s favour, so that they now lead 51-49 on two-party preferred. This is down to a two-point increase in their primary vote to 43%, with Labor steady on 36% and the Greens steady on 10%. There is yet again bad news for Tony Abbott on personal ratings: his approval is down three points to 27% and his disapproval is up five to 63%. This marks a new low for him on net approval, and has been matched since the inception of Newspoll (in late 1985) only by the polls which preceded the downfalls of Alexander Downer in January 1995 and John Hewson in April 1994, and several for Andrew Peacock in the lead-up to the 1990 election. Julia Gillard meanwhile is respectively up two to 37% and up one to 52%, and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 45-34 to 46-32.

Today’s Essential Research survey included its monthly personal rating questions, and these too found Abbott falling to new lows. Whereas the previous survey showed both leaders up in the immediate aftermath of Julia Gillard’s sexism and misogyny speech, the latest result has Abbott down four on approval to 33% and up four on disapproval to 58%. Gillard is steady on approval at 41% approval and down two on disapproval to 49%, and her lead as preferred prime minister is up from 43-36 to 45-32, her best result since February 2011.

Essential is also chiming better with Newspoll now on voting intention, with the Coalition’s lead now at 52-48 (down from 53-47 last week) from primary votes of 37% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Also canvassed are options on how the government might rein in the budget, with reducing or means testing the baby bonus and increasing tax for those on high incomes respectively coming on top.

Preselection news:

• Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advocate reports there are “at least” 10 candidates for the Liberal preselection in Greenway, of whom the highest profile is former Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson. However, the presumed front-runner is the candidate from 2010, Jayme Diaz, whose work as a migration lawyer and family background in the locally numerous Filipino community is believed to stand him in good stead. Diaz is aligned with the David Clarke “hard Right”, but he apparently has an opponent in Tony Abbott, who no doubt has a strong recollection of Diaz’s failure to win the crucial seat last time. Also mentioned as starters have been Ben Jackson and Brett Murray, who are associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke’s “Centre Right” faction.

• The Tasmanian Liberals have preselected Brett Whiteley, who held in state parliament from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, as their federal candidate for marginal north-western seat of Braddon. The party originally chose local businessman Michael Burr, but he withdrew for health reasons. Whiteley did not contest the original preselection, saying at the time he was focused on returning to state politics.

• Chris Johnson of the Canberra Times reports that Kate Hamilton, a former councillor in Leichhardt in inner Sydney, and local party member Stephen Darwin will join former GetUp! director Simon Sheikh in the contest for Greens preselection for the Senate in the Australian Capital Territory.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the prospect of federal executive intervention if Noreen Hay, state Wollongong MP and member for the Right, uses her influence over the local numbers to back a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones, federal member for Throsby and member of the Left.

• Don Farrell has agreed to accept relegation to the second position on Labor’s South Australian Senate ticket in deference to Penny Wong, after his victory in the state conference ballot met a hostile response within the party and without.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,942 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 71 of 79
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  1. Interestingly, Deblonay, Doug Cameron has come out and approached reason on the Israeli attacks on Gaza …

    Well done him on this score at least.

  3. That’s a very good point, Jackol.

    The trouble is, sometimes non-violent tactics don’t work, such as the peaceful protests for Tibet (although I don’t know for sure if they’re completely non-violent). Either way, China is not likely to ever grant it independence.

    But I agree that the behaviour of Israel and Palestine doesn’t help at all. Both need to grow above primal instincts and finally break this endless cycle of resentment, revenge and retaliation.

  4. Christmas is basically a celebration of family and a good excuse for a party / family get together / BBQ. For religious people, a minority these days if you exclude those who are nominally affiliated to one or other denomination, it has an additional dimension as the celebration of the birth of their Saviour. There is absolutely nothing hypocritical about non-Christians wanting to celebrate. My Muslim and Hindu work colleagues were as keen for a holiday over Christmas as the rest of us. My only problem with Christmas is that I would like to tone down the commercialisation. Let’s drop the shopping and presents, not to mention the pressure, and just enjoy the day.

  7. From the BS article where Robb and Hunt are talking to business types:
    Paraphrased
    [“Robb and Hunt indicated a series of areas where the Coalition would change policy
    -In education there would be a substantial reduction in the regulations for universities and a restoration of most of the visa rules that existed under Howard
    -environmental approvals would be undertaken by the states
    -There will be a lot more outsourcing in the Commonwealth
    – In relations with the states, an entirely new approach is planned. ….. the new approach would be a federalis one
    -In defence, ……. is not prepared to announce any policies at this point [context needed] ]

    Summary by BS
    [” is clear that the Coalition believe they are uncovering enormous areas of cost reduction via lesser regulation so services can be improved yet spending slashed.
    But not all the Coalition’s spending cuts will improve service”]

  9. [Christmas is basically a celebration of family and a good excuse for a party]
    Christmas is a tradition that involves celebrating the day before the Boxing Day Test Match.

    This has been the case for centuries.

  10. Guytaur & Centre

    I admit I’m no expert on the Middle East but I won’t accept a black & white allocation of blame. My default position is that there is blame & stupidity on both sides of the conflict. Posts here barracking for one or the other side won’t change much but if someone can presnt a clear way forward which would be acceptable to all I’ll be happy to read it. Looking forward in anticipation.

  11. kevjohnno

    I think the solution to Israel/Palestine is simple. Make it International Territory as it is a holy land and belongs to the people of the world.
    Then those that live in the territory will be subject to a government imposed by the United Nations that has to abide by the UN treaties including the human rights treaty and is the world headquarters of the UN.

    No people to claim territorial rights over holy land and icons.
    It will never happen but would be one way to solve it.

  13. [3510
    kevjohnno
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 4:39 pm | PERMALINK
    Guytaur & Centre

    I admit I’m no expert on the Middle East but I won’t accept a black & white allocation of blame. My default position is that there is blame & stupidity on both sides of the conflict. Posts here barracking for one or the other side won’t change much but if someone can presnt a clear way forward which would be acceptable to all I’ll be happy to read it. Looking forward in anticipation.]
    Easy!
    Just propose forced conversion of the entire populations, Jews & Moslems to Christianity.
    That will unite them in opposition.
    You know it makes sense. 😉

  15. [Just propose forced conversion of the entire populations, Jews & Moslems to Christianity.]

    Only fractionally more batsh#t crazy than other proposed solutions.

    😆

  16. [3515
    CTar1
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 4:46 pm | PERMALINK
    Just propose forced conversion of the entire populations, Jews & Moslems to Christianity.

    Only fractionally more batsh#t crazy than other proposed solutions.
    😆 ]
    Ahhhh …. But you miss the difference. Mine is intentionally so. 😛

  17. and retaliation.

    3504

    steve. you can do that every day just not on the 25 th 0f december the reason its so commercialised is becauce people have forgotten why they are celebrating

    im fighting back now you see.
    i have a jewish friend who celebrates some days later at the time of their church celebrations,

    thats NO excuse, you can celebrate with family all day every day,
    people who not chritians and celebrate christmas
    dont you think thay be a little hypocritical

    i decided after all this stuff here to wear my nannas
    gold cross it quite big about one and half inches long its about 100 years old now i think the only piece of gold she owned

    out and about with normal people today smiles all around
    i kmnow i saw some eyes go to the cross, no nasty remarks or snarly faces may be its just the people here that are so righteous.
    or may be where i live they like you for what you are

  19. The cure for Israel’s problems is to get rid of their ridiculously low % needed for a seat in the Parliament.

    Get rid of the minority kooks that both sides need to form Govt., this has immobilised the country for decades.

  20. “Christmas is a tradition that involves celebrating the day before the Boxing Day Test Match. ”

    So the 25th is ‘Boxing Day Test Eve’. I like Boxing day – there’s no pretence that its purpose is anything other than to have a day off, watch the cricket, go to the beach or otherwise relax, with no religious or other higher significance (although for the devout it is the Feast of my namesake Saint Stephen).

  21. Did my fortnightly shop today – the retailers all report massive sales and it was very busy (took an hour longer than usual).

    Have Aussie’s opened the wallet at last?

  23. [my say
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 4:50 pm | PERMALINK
    and retaliation.

    3504

    steve. you can do that every day just not on the 25 th 0f december the reason its so commercialised is becauce people have forgotten why they are celebrating]
    Doesn’t everyone know it is the birthday of Santa Claus??? 😀

  25. o and what do you tell your chidren,,why they
    are receiving presents,

    my grandchildren,,tell me its becauce baby jesus is born
    we celebrate his birthday, we cannot give to him
    so we give to each other.
    gees i am glad i a christian

  26. Guytaur

    Then we would just have to wait a few thousand years for both populations to accept the new status quo. Wouldn’t you just love to be a UN “peacekeeper” there.

    Still it would drive a few of the usual nutters in the US right up the wall.

    By the way the that bit about “No people to claim territorial rights over holy land and icons.” might cause a bit of angst in a few other countries.

  28. [You’re compiling all of these great pieces of journalism?]

    sof, in the true tradition of them BISONs. i report, you decide

  31. [o and what do you tell your chidren,,why they
    are receiving presents,]

    I tell them that Santa and his elves are bringing them presents for being good. 😀

  32. [Just propose forced conversion of the entire populations, Jews & Moslems to Christianity.]

    Typical R*dd destabilising of the Middle East.

  34. @ruawake/3527

    Perhaps the carbon pricing has not had major effect as was foretold ? It could also see that our economy be improving as well?

  37. bemused – Can you imagine the fear of jews and the muslums when confronted with the idea that as christians they’d have to be in among those orthodox dudes fighting it out in that church in Bethlehem!

    😆

  38. $116M !!!!!

    It’s a shame it wasn’t in cash or gold bars.

    [AUTHORITIES have found 200 kilograms of cocaine, with a street value of $116 million, and a dead body in a yacht bound for Australia that ran aground in Tonga.

    Australian Federal Police (AFP) said it received intelligence from the United States Drug Enforcement Agency in August that an organised crime syndicate had launched the vessel from Ecuador.]

  40. 3519

    It would be reasonably to raise the required percentage from 2% to up to 5% but that would still leave several different groups in parliament.

    Introducing single member electorates would also leave small groups in parliament because people in Israel tend to live in areas people with similar opinions live. Settlements would elect pro-settlement MKs, Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox areas would elect Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox MKs, liberal areas would elect liberal MKs and Arab areas would continue to elect Arab MKs (gerrymandering permitting).

  42. @ShoebridgeMLC: Palestine and Israel are not two equals who need to “sort it out” – Another brutal war is looming on a Gazan population 50% are under 18 yrs

  43. [sof, in the true tradition of them BISONs. i report, you decide]

    I’ve decided. I just wanted to know if you’re keeping a list of them all in one place.

  44. [It would be reasonably to raise the required percentage from 2% to up to 5% but that would still leave several different groups in parliament.]

    Nothing wrong with a smaller amount of groups of similar interest. It is when no party can ever govern without micro party support that it turns to brown stuff.

    No Israeli Govt can be formed without pandering to micro parties. Bad for everyone.

  45. Can someone please explain what the BISON references in these posts are? Pardon my ignorance but I normally find acronyms, abbreviations and Internet slang in Google, but all I can find for BISON are large, even-toed ungulates. And also “The Daily Derp”, although I can’t find an explanation of the term.

  47. [I dont recall Abbott doing that. It appears fhat a taser gun is also attached to the vest he is wearing]

    When were Tasers introduced to NSW? At least 2009?

  48. Christmas is a tradition that involves celebrating the day before the Boxing Day Test Match.

    This has been the case for centuries.

    It depends on the state of the pitch if there are any centuries…

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