Presidential election minus one day

My tip: Obama to win 303-235, carrying Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.

If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can observe my reading of the situation here, which concludes thus:

I don’t see any reason to bet against the view shared by FiveThirtyEight and the RealClearPolitics state polling averages: that Obama will win the electoral college 303 to 235, carrying Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada, while falling short in Florida and North Carolina.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,468 comments on “Presidential election minus one day”

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  2. (Pedantry spreading from grammar to probability theory.)

    Aristotle
    [In odds speak, it’s 11/1, which means Romney has 1 chance in 12 of winning. Or, in other words, if the election were held 12 times, Obama would win 11 and Romney once.]

    Well, most of the time, if the election were held 12 times a very large number of times.

  3. Does 538 not cover the congressional elections?

    If not, what would be the most authoritative site that covers the congressional elections?

    Does Obama have a chance at all there?

    What happens with the Congress anyhow. Can Obama hope to achieve any real reform without it? Like reforming the tax system, or bedding in healthcare, or any number of other reforms.

  4. [My tip: Obama to win 303-235, carrying Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.]

    William (et al.):

    Well here we are, at the end!

    There is a good chance you and Carey will be right with 303, but I am sticking with my long-held prediction of 323 (your prediction + Florida for Obama).

    Interestingly, Nate Silver has just coloured Florida blue (53% chance Obama win)!!!!

    What data do we have:
    1. 2008 margin was 2.5% to Obama (or 230k votes)
    2. Party registration: 40% Dem to 35.6% Rep (vs. 42% : 36% in 2008) a 2% margin drop
    3. New registrations: 300k more Hispanics, 150k more Blacks and 166k more whites
    http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/floridas-voter-registration-statistics/
    Given the voting intentions of these demographics from this latest poll:
    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FLNC_1105.pdf
    New white voters (166k) would given Romney a new 25k (PPP 40-59)
    New black voters (151k) would give Obama a new 124k (PPP 91-9)
    New Hispanic voters (305k) would give Obama a new 20k (PPP 53-47)
    4. Early voting: 42.9% Dem to 39.1% Rep (vs. 45.6% : 37.3% in 2008) a 4.5% margin drop
    ….. however, given 53% of the 2008 turnout has already voted this lead is “in the bank” whereas Romney must catch up
    5. Already voted numbers: Obama 52% to Romney 47%
    50% PPP respondents said they had already voted, very similar to the 52.7% based on early voting numbers which compare 2012 early vote to the 2008 turnout
    6. Turnout: The early vote turnout is almost exactly what it was in 2008, despite the Republican state government severely limiting early voting opportunities….not suggestive of a massive drop in interest and so this is good news for Obama.

    So what does all that mean? Despite evidence to the contrary in the polling, I am sticking with a very narrow win for Obama. Normally a Florida win would mean an early night (clear Dem victory) but in this case it is going to be a nail biter and so we will still be up until Colorado and Nevada numbers come in.

  5. [cud chewer
    Posted Tuesday, November 6, 2012 at 8:32 pm | PERMALINK
    Does 538 not cover the congressional elections?

    If not, what would be the most authoritative site that covers the congressional elections?]

    http://www.electionprojection.com/index.php

    This is another site with a good track record (although he is a self-confessed Republican)

    It has been showing an essential status quo- there has never been a time when the Dems were close to the 25 or so seats they need to gain control of the House

    [Does Obama have a chance at all there?]

    Probably not, unless he wins a breakout landslide that was not predicted

    [What happens with the Congress anyhow. Can Obama hope to achieve any real reform without it? Like reforming the tax system, or bedding in healthcare, or any number of other reforms.]

    The only hope is a clear Obama win in the national and electoral college vote and the Senate 55-45 etc and a good showing in the House (+15seats) and the reasonable Republicans assisting in the interests of the country.

    Although this sounds optimistic, it is actually possible as some of the Republicans were scared off by Tea Party threats (support the Dems and we will defeat you in the Primaries and you wont even be allowed to be our candidate let alone win the election – see Lugar being defeated by the moronic Mourdock in Indiana and turning a definite Republican Senate seat into a definite (?) Senate seat for the Democrats!!!!

  7. The article on early voting in Colorado, referenced by William at 47, has me puzzled as to what is a registered Democrat, Republican or Independent.

    [According to tallies released by the secretary of state Monday morning, 624,778 registered Republicans have returned ballots (36.5 percent) compared to 590,417 registered Democrats (34.5 percent) and 474,437 registered unaffiliated voters (27.9 percent).]

    For voting in the primaries, I assumed you registered with the appropriate party as a supporter, if not an actual member.

    However this article seems to imply that for today’s election you tell the returning officer, who is presumably a government official, which party you are registered with. Or are you registered as a Democrat etc. and shown as such on the public electoral roll?

    It seems like an interesting situation.

  9. [With the Presidency apparently sewn up, the real action will be the Senate race where the Dems might hold on to the majority against all odds.]
    I don’t think even conservatives think the Republicans can win the Senate at this stage. They have blown both feet off by picking too many teabaggers like Akin and Mourdock.

  10. [The only hope is a clear Obama win in the national and electoral college vote and the Senate 55-45 etc and a good showing in the House (+15seats) and the reasonable Republicans assisting in the interests of the country.]

    Is there such a thing as a “reasonable republican” ?

    I suspect if Obama tries to up taxes on the rich, the republicans will vote to a man.

  11. [There is a good chance you and Carey will be right with 303, but I am sticking with my long-held prediction of 323 (your prediction + Florida for Obama).]
    Don’t you mean 332? Florida has 29 votes.

  12. [I suspect if Obama tries to up taxes on the rich, the republicans will vote to a man.]
    Obama doesn’t have to do ANYTHING to increase taxes on the rich. All he has to do is let the unfunded Bush tax cuts EXPIRE.

    At the same time he simply proposes a new tax cut for middle class voters and dare the Republicans to block it.

  15. [Obama doesn’t have to do ANYTHING to increase taxes on the rich. All he has to do is let the unfunded Bush tax cuts EXPIRE.

    At the same time he simply proposes a new tax cut for middle class voters and dare the Republicans to block it.]

    Again….indeed! 🙂

  17. [Is there such a thing as a “reasonable republican” ?]

    There “were” might be the best answer to this.

    The ranks are somewhat diminished now compared with previous elections.

    I think it is wrong to think of the Republican party through the prism of the Tea Party. I used to think that Reagan was a right wing redneck, but compared with the Tea Party types he is a socialist.

    Remember, Abraham Lincoln was a Republican.

  18. [cud chewer

    Posted Tuesday, November 6, 2012 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

    Don’t they still have an issue with the debt ceiling?
    ]

    Yes, both sides in fact.

    They keep hitting it and they keep coming up with excuses to raise it.

    What will it be 28? times now?

    The U.S. have some very serious monetary problems that they are just completely ignoring.

    To their peril.

  19. [I think it is wrong to think of the Republican party through the prism of the Tea Party. I used to think that Reagan was a right wing redneck, but compared with the Tea Party types he is a socialist.]
    Well you don’t hear many Republicans mention that over Reagan’s 8 years U.S. government debt almost tripled (tax cuts very rarely pay for themselves).

    Oh, and although he cut income taxes, he actually increased 18 other taxes to offset the loss of revenue.

  20. [They have blown both feet off by picking too many teabaggers like Akin and Mourdock.]

    And it’s very difficult to stand tall with both feet blown off.

  23. [He’d be a typical Democrat now.]
    Why of course. I mean he signed into law the bills that sold 30 year government bonds to fund the construction of the First Transcontinental Railroad, so that clearly makes him a socialist.

    He also signed the law enacting the Yosemite National Park, so that clearly demonstrates he was an extremist Green environmentalist.

  24. Minhoff @ 40

    I saw this interesting prediction linked on Twitter. Based on Nate’s margins, it’s a simulation on how long it will take for each state to be called.

    http://www.the-numbers.com/interactive/newsStory.php?newsID=7747

    In 2008 it was all over when the polls closed in California. This year we’re going to have to wait a long time for the swing states to report in.

    Reminds me of a previous US election called in the wee hours of the morning. (it’s not 2000/4)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCIDHvns_aQ&feature=relmfu

  25. WWP

    [Remember, Abraham Lincoln was a Republican.

    He’d be a typical Democrat now.

    Surely a little bit better than that!]

    Very true. I should have said he’d fit in best with the Democrats.

    SO

    [He also signed the law enacting the Yosemite National Park, so that clearly demonstrates he was an extremist Green environmentalist.]

    Lincoln enacted the law making Yosemite a protected park but California owned it. Teddy Roosevelt was the one who made Yosemite a National Park.

  28. [I think more likely than not now Obama >300. It’s all coming back to where it was before the first debate and it just doesn’t look close. 303 seems to be the most common call but FL has just stuck its neck in front on 538.]
    Of course this is an amazing position for Obama to be in.

    Of course Presidents NORMALLY get a second term (about 2/3 of them), but the economic fundamentals are completely against him, yet the polls, betting markets, and simulations say that he is a 3/4 or better chance of winning.

    I think that is a tribute to Obama’s likability. Even when he was getting some bad polls, his approval always stayed around 45 – 50, because whatever his limitations it seems Americans like him a lot more than they liked Bush.

  30. I think the economic fundamentals being against him matters less because the nation is recovering from a crisis that was not his fault.

    Note also that in the last 100 years, [i]parties[/i] have nearly always got a second term. Democrats in 1980 is the lone exception (in the 19th C it was common). And this is similar to the pattern in Aus, NZ, UK etc – single-term administrations are not common.

    I do think Obama is especially good at political self-disguise.

  33. [Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

    We expect GOP Senate pickups in ND and NE — and have Rehberg as a slight favorite in MT. ]

  34. I wonder about the accuracy of “already voted statistics”?

    We don’t really have any way of knowing whether respondents who say they have already voted are not telling the truth or not. We cannot use the final results as we know early voters are not representative of all voters (early vote margins are not the same as final margins in many states). However, WHY would someone (in fact hundreds or thousands of people) lie about this?

    So far:

    1. Ohio: Obama wins the “already voted” margins by double digits
    2. Colorado: Obama ahead by 3% among those reporting they have already voted
    http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_21914514/poll-obama-romney-still-essentially-tied-colorado
    Note: The “early voting” stats from the amazing gmu site only records the party affiliations of early voters (which has Obama behind by 2% vs. being ahead by 2% in 2008) not HOW they actually voted, and the non-party affiliated voters are a big chunk of the electorate
    3. Nevada: Obama ahead by 11% among those reporting they have already voted
    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CONV_1105.pdf

    Ohio, Colorado and Nevada means Obama could lose EVERY SINGLE OTHER SWING STATE* and still win the election. Indeed, he could even lose Wisconsin and still win the election!

    *Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida

  35. I agree with many like Socrates and Fran B
    Obama has been weak and ineffective and a vast let down

    I have US friends who think he should have lauched criminal actions the major bankers and Wall Street operatorsaftre Lehman Bros collapse3
    The voters would have loved that
    His health reforms were minimal and perhaps more understandable given the manic Repugnantg opposition

    In fact no one is able to tell the US people the truth
    The US Empire is draining the economy in a vast outflow of money
    Perhaps Obama might seek to end the foreign wars

    I believe that he will be able to move outside the borders set out in the M$E by Israel…which as one reent report said is a great danger to the US
    There will be no war in the Gulf against Iran

    But how does he make the big cuts to the military that are the ME needed .

    and how does he bring in a just tax system…so that the rich 1% of voters pays a share

    Perhaps nothing can save the US from deeper and deeeper financial ruin …if the tax system can’t be fixed

    Traveling in the USA to visit family there…I have been struck by the deterioration of much of the infrastructure
    … Europe/China/Japan or even Russia…and a school system in decay

  37. Writer and Crtic James Kinstler from the USA…looks at this critical moment in US history as they also try to come to terms with”the tides of history” in the aftermath of the Great Hurricane
    btw…he sees much pain and suffering for the million or more with ruined homes who may soon face the callous acts of the insurance companies whould will wriggle out where they can…and leave a great number with ruined homes and ruined lives…and this will he think trigger a huge public angrer in places like NY and N Jersey with a more dynamic crowd of victims than the poor blacks of New Orleans who were just ignored by the powers that be

    Great dangers ahead…but as great read

    http://kunstler.com/blog/2012/11/the-tides-of-event.html

  38. mod Lib # 67, well said. You’ll recall of course that Obama in his victory speech was very specific in acknowledging Lincoln the republican. Oh that we might see the party of Lincoln rise again.

    Governor Christie, Mayor Bloomberg, your nation and thus the world await.

    Meanwhile, my money is on the high 290s, would be delighted to see the 300 plus result dump the tea party into the drink and have some sortt of return to sanity.

  39. I wonder if the tea party will be dumped into the drink though. Assuming Romney loses they are likely to argue that the strategy of picking a mainstream Republican has failed again, as they said it would all along, and that a more radical candidate is needed next time. I’m guessing the radical right will feel vindicated not chastised by a Romney loss, especially if it’s not close.

  40. KB, yes they will think that I agree but in my view it will be like the idiots in late 45 trying to continue WWII with no Wehrmacht and I think the saner heads will have very good prospects of taking their party back …

  41. The tea party or some derivative thereof has a lock on the Republican party primary voters

    Take the favs/unfavs of the Tea Party in the exit polls of the initial GOP primaries/caucuses this year

    (Fav/Neutral/Unfav)

    IA (64,24,10)
    NH (51,30,17)
    SC (64,27,8)

    Despite what the GOP “establishment” may think of the tea party and its impact on electability at the general election, they will still have to navigate through these voters in primaries.

  44. The strange thing about Dixville Notch is that it used to be a joke, but it actually now has become a significant indicator. NH used to be such a one-sided Republican state that its votes didn’t mean much. In 1964 Goldwater carried Dixville 8 votes to 1 against LBJ. But now NH is a marginal state, as Republicanism is dying out in New England. That’s why in 2008 Obama became the first Dem ever to carry Dixville. So the fact that it’s a draw this time might actually mean that Obama won’t carry NH. Then again it might not.

    It’s 6.17pm here in France so I will have to sit up all night to watch the results.

  48. Indeed, here’s a big slab of a Twitter search on “turnout”, minus irrelevancies:

    [WSAV News 3 ‏@WSAV

    Early Voter Turnout Heavier than Anticipated in Chatham County http://ow.ly/2t44dS
    Expand
    1m Justin Smith Justin Smith ‏@JustinSmith80

    Poll workers in Rockledge say highest turnout they’ve seen for president ever.
    from Dublin, GA
    2m Its That Bri Guy Its That Bri Guy ‏@ItsThatBriGuy

    Heavy turnout in Groton. A smiling Briana Manalo, 19, cast her first vote
    Expand
    2m MsCris416 MsCris416 ‏@MsCris368

    Hey @marthamaccallum Heaviest turnout 12 years of voting in Loudoun County, VA Took 45 mins #ForLoveOfCountry pic.twitter.com/DKPT7HsP
    View photo
    2m John McLee John McLee ‏@Johny_Tweetee

    http://www.RoanokeFor.me Good Turnout So Far at Polling Places in Roanoke http://ow.ly/2t44NM
    Expand
    2m Samuel Gilleran Samuel Gilleran ‏@samuelgilleran

    Just got turnout numbers from Martinsville Precinct 5. There is a tide.
    Expand
    2m Tom Grant Tom Grant ‏@tomgrant95

    RT@thinkprogress: On Fox, Obama Deputy Campaign Manager Stephanie Cutter says turnout is very high in Cleveland. #whereyouvoting #VoteObama
    Expand
    2m Douglas Watters Douglas Watters ‏@douglaswatters

    Election Day turnout heavy in several #Sandy-ravaged areas in New York and New Jersey, AP reports: http://ow.ly/f4h6P
    Expand
    2m Vernal Express Vernal Express ‏@Vernalnews

    Exercising their right: Voters at Western Park in Vernal Tuesday morning. A heavy turnout, with lines out the… http://fb.me/2dgNTfmZU
    Expand
    2m Don Lehman Don Lehman ‏@PS_CrimeCourts

    Voter turnout seemed very high at the polling place where I voted in Queensbury this morning. #pselection.
    Expand

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