Courtesy of The Australian comes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for July-September, providing big-sample results state-by-state and my gender and metropolitan/non-metropolitan. This suggests Labor’s recent Newspoll recovery has been driven entirely by Queensland, where the Coalition’s lead shrunk to 58-42 from 65-35 in April-June. Elsewhere, the position is stable at 56-44 in New South Wales, Labor is up a point in both Victoria and South Australia to respectively lead 52-48 and trail 52-48, and they have actually gone backwards in Western Australia to 58-42, from what was probably an overly generous 55-45 last time. In aggregate, the result shows the Coalition’s lead down to 54-46 from 56-44 in the previous quarter, with little change in the leaders’ personal ratings, the survey period having mostly preceded the recent improvement in Julia Gillard’s ratings and decline in Tony Abbott’s. The results show the standing of each essentially stable across all demographics.
UPDATE (8/10/12): Cathy Alexander at Crikey reports Essential Research has Labor gaining a further point on the primary vote to 37%, with the Coalition steady at 47%. Essential has shown Labor gaining five points on the primary vote over six weeks, to reach a level not seen since March last year. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 53-47. Essential has smartly chosen this week to repeat an exercise from a year ago concerning trust in media personalities, finding Alan Jones among the most famous but least trusted (22% trust against 67% do not trust). The others best recognised were Laurie Oakes and George Negus, with the former slightly edging out the latter on trust (72% compared with 69%). Only 17% registered support for funding cuts to the ABC, with around a third each wanting funding maintained or increased. Opinion on government regulation of the media was fairly evenly spread between wanting more, less and the same.
UPDATE (6/10/12): The table below compares quarterly state-level figures for both Newspoll and Nielsen for both the July-September and April-June quarters. In the case of Newspoll, sample sizes range from 700 for South Australia to 1700 for NSW, while Nielsen’s range from about 1300 for NSW to fewer than 400 for Western Australia and South Australia/Northern Territory. The two pollsters agree in showing Labor recovering by six or seven points in Queensland, which is corroborated by Galaxy – their polls conducted in Queensland roughly in the middle of the two polling periods had the Coalition lead shrinking from 64-36 to 57-43. Both Newspoll and Nielsen have produced steady results of around 50-50 in Victoria, but a disparity emerges in the case of NSW, where Labor shot from 40% to 46% in Nielsen while remaining steady on 44% in Newspoll. Caution should be taken in comparing the smaller states given Nielsen’s small samples.
Newspoll Nielsen Newspoll Nielsen Jul-Sep Jul-Sep Apr-Jun Apr-Jun Total 46 46 44 42 NSW 44 46 44 40 Victoria 52 49 51 50 Queensland 42 40 35 34 SA/NT 48 50 47 47 WA 42 42 45 39
UPDATE 2 (7/10/12): Not forgetting …
Seat of the week: O’Connor
Covering rural and remote areas in the south of Western Australia, O’Connor delivered the WA Nationals a House of Representatives seat at the last election for the first time since 1974, with their candidate Tony Crook unseating Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey. Crook’s win followed a redistribution which fundamentally rearranged the state’s remote areas, abolishing the vast seat of Kalgoorlie and dividing its territory between O’Connor and the new seat of Durack. This saw O’Connor absorb a vast swathe of the state’s south-east, including Esperance and the Goldfields. Whereas the whole of the state’s “Wheatbelt” had previously been in O’Connor, a transfer of 38,000 voters in its northern half (including Merredin) to Durack was required to balance its gains elsewhere. O’Connor continued to encompass Albany, the southern Wheatbelt towns of Narrogin, Wagin and Katanning, and the South West region forestry towns of Bridgetown and Manjimup.
O’Connor was created at the 1980 election, its territory having previously been covered by Moore and Canning. It was gained for the Liberals in 1980 by parliamentary newcomer Wilson Tuckey, who owed his “Ironbar” nickname to an assault conviction over a 1967 incident involving a length of steel cable and an Aboriginal patron of his Carnarvon hotel. Tuckey’s win was assisted by a schism in the state National Party, which resulted in two separate organisations fielding rival candidates. Emnity with the Nationals was to emerge as a theme of Tuckey’s career, with the Nationals repeatedly placing him behind various minor candidates in their preference recommendations. The Nationals caused Tuckey little trouble electorally over the years, consistently finishing third behind Labor on occasions when they fielded a candidate. That nearly changed in 2007, but Tuckey’s primary vote remained strong enough that he would have comfortably prevailed even if the Nationals had managed to edge ahead of Labor and absorb their preferences.
Tuckey was 75 at the time of the 2010 election, and regarded in Canberra as an increasingly erratic presence. While the redistribution had in one sense done him a good turn by dividing the Nationals heartland between two electorates, this was largely negated by the Nationals’ successful 2008 state election strategy of appealing more broadly to regional areas. Among the areas where inroads were made for for the first time was the Goldfields, which Tuckey had never represented. It was in the Goldfields that Tuckey suffered the most damage, the Kalgoorlie-Boulder booths collectively going against him 63-37. However, he was also outpolled in Albany, and the split elsewhere was roughly even. Crook had no trouble overtaking the Labor candidate, with the Nationals vote up 19.7% to 28.9% and Labor down 9.2% to 17.1%. Tuckey easily led on the primary vote with 38.4%, down 10.4% on 2007, but an 80% share of Labor and Greens preferences saw Crook prevail at the final count with a margin of 3.6%.
Tuckey reacted to his defeat by saying he did “not intend to be gracious at all”, and proclaimed Crook to be a “nobody”. Crook had in fact been the chairman of the Royal Flying Doctor Service, and was the state election candidate for Kalgoorlie in 2008. His status as a nobody was addressed soon enough by the circumstances of the election result, which placed him as a non-aligned member in a hung parliament, the WA Nationals having campaigned as an independent party that would not “report, answer and take direction from Warren Truss”. However, few were surprised when Crook, after a fortnight of prevarication, announced he would support a Coalition government on confidence and supply. He nonetheless sat on the cross-benches until May 2012, when he joined the Nationals party room while remaining absent from joint Coalition meetings.
The complexities of rural politics in Western Australia have come to the fore recently as a result of the federal government’s move to wind up the Wheat Export Authority, the culmination of a process of wheat exporting deregulation which began after the Cole Royal Commission into wheat sales to Iraq. The more protectionist eastern states Nationals, who had split from the Liberals to vote against deregulation of the industry in 2006, persuaded Tony Abbott to back an amendment to sustain the authority for a further two years, incurring the intense displeasure of agricultural interests in Western Australia. The state party organisation was very keen that its members should cross the floor over the issue, and it took the exercise of Julie Bishop’s authority to determine their support for Abbott’s position. As the Liberal members had feared, they were duly snookered when Crook announced that he would split from his party colleagues to vote down any such amendment.
There had been hope in the Liberal camp that Crook might be tarred at the next election by the brush of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, but this has presumably been negated by the wheat export issue. Their candidate is Katanning farmer Rick Wilson, who won an April 2011 preselection vote over Cranbrook Shire president Doug Forrest and Kalgoorlie pastoralist Ross Wood.
well it has been commented over time
where is his wife.
and we see Tim accassionaly and no one thinks any thing about it. i am sure he actully there on the scene more than the cameras tell us but never ever does he do
the im the wonderful partner stuff.
they are just an everyday couple.
and thats mean a compliment
ABC news online are using the headline ‘The real Tony’ for their Abbott article.
😆
“Standing by her man” – propping up the spineless wonder.
I’m waiting for the next “lame, gay, churchy loser” remark from Bridget? (I assume it wasn’t Frances since she’s in the photo in the Adelaide Now article.)
I wonder how much time Abbott has spent on cribbing notes on Downton Abbey than, you know, policy development
yes zoomster.
i had not picked that one up.
o dear
over the years when one visits aquaintances you can al wasy tell the little woman who has had problems being her own woman
we all know couples like that.
then i must say we have had aquaintances over the years
when the reverse is seen, my oh calls them he pecked.
Cant wait till his next doorstop. Wall to wall questions on Downton Abbey!!
morning bludgers
Imagine my shock. The whole front oage of the Herald Sun has a huge pic of Abbott!, wife and daughter.
MY TONY’S A GOOD MAN
MARGIE ABBOTT HITS BACK
things must be dire in Liberal central. This is the funniest thing I have yet to see, and BTW is there an election soon????
zoomster,
[By putting so much emphasis on Tony not having a problem, they’re simply reinforcing that there is one.]
🙂
guytaur @31
That was Liberty Sanger, partner at Maurice Blackburn & of David Feeney.
Also on the front pag
HE’ NOT ANTI WOMEN
Oh FFS there is also a middle page spread on pages 4 and 5 with another huge picture
TOUGH TEARFUL TENDER, THE TONY I KNOW AND LOVE.
is this a frickin sitcom. I am laughing hysterically.
[ is this a frickin sitcom. I am laughing hysterically. ]
Benny Hill coming up next 🙂
At least we used to laugh with Benny not at him.
On Nine’s morning program, Stefanovic has a couple of ladies discussing Abbott: one gushingly FOR Abbott and the other (presumably the “antithesis” argument) saying no-one could be such a monster as Abbott is portrayed.
The set-up is “absolute adoration” versus “he can’t be that bad.” Yin and Yang… not.
This is a major campaign, it’s pretty obvious. Front pages all over Australia, backed up with a television breakfast blitz (and no doubt a continuation throughout the day and over the weekend on news and current affairs).
“This is a man who wanted to be a priest, for goodness sake!” said the “He Can’t Be That Bad” lady. There must be some goodness in there somewhere. “We just don’t see it,” she went on.
This was the anti-Abbott case: a good, decent family man, grossly misrepresented and misunderstood.
They are scared. They are terrified. The shit has hit the fan.
It’s all hands to the pumps: telly, newspapers… can magazines be far behind?
Margie is a good woman. A good woman could not be married to anything else but a good man.
Ergo: Abbott is a good man.
It’s being presented as a major news story, complete with a shot of Abbott in budgies, with a lingering look at his pubic region bulging and his hairy chest.
Abbott a good bloke? Who knew?
My Say put it brilliantly, though…
[one thing i would say about our relation ship,.
my oh has never ask me to go to a job application with him
during his time in public servie life.
LOL]
LOL, indeed.
P.S. Channel 7 now running the line that Labor has used cheap Tea Party tactics re. Abbott.
For shame, nasty Labor people.
I am certain that apart from the msm boosting abbott because he is in trouble, they are trying to bait the Labor Party. The govt should say nothing at all in this regard.
Abbott may have got the free ride with the puff pieces this morning but he is about to get whacked by the Western Australian wheat belt | http://bit.ly/OG4pWy
my power bill caused a bit of a shock, 3.5 person household was over $1000 for the quarter up from $600, we also have a new solar HWS. It’s going to cause some tension internally as OH still wants to run 2 fridges and 3 freezers, blames electric heaters over winter but neither of us blame the CP.
Fairerfields
Now having the wheat rift on the front page of a news ltd paper would have been a real shock!!
Interesting paragraph in the telegraph about the slipper /ashby/ affair
And in a late twist, Justice Rares indicated Mr Ashby and his legal team may have abused the process of the court by alleging Mr Slipper committed Cabcharge fraud.
If that is true, does it means slipper will likely get the case struck out
Victoria
[hey are trying to bait the Labor Party. The govt should say nothing at all in this regard.]
Exactly. The lines are written and awaiting delivery at the first Labour affiliated person to criticize Ms Abbott.
I am hoping that everyone is laughing at News Ltd and can see through this latest stunt – this is not friggin news.
All the politicians want their family kept out of politics, now Abbott has intentionally dragged his in. They deserve everything they have coming to them.
Hockeynomics running free!
http://delimiter.com.au/2012/10/04/nbn-could-cost-100bn-claims-hockey/
Greensborough Growler
[The last leader to have a praetorian guard of women was Gadaffi. ]
No it was Admiral General Aladeen. Also he is a better fit for Tones. http://tiny.cc/k3eolw
Just checked Libtika’s tweet stream. She has basically tweeted countless quotes from Margie Abbott. Why????
Poll Average and Seat Projection update after Newspoll Quarterly
http://poliquant.com/australia-poll-average-seat-projection-newspoll-quarterly-breakdown-jul-sep/
I keep mulling over a “subtle” way for the government to say something like:
95
Son of foro
[Yes, I think the combination of twitter for a few short, punchy lines, with the more detailed and serious answers they give at the Community Cabinets is a good combination. Very effective and a good way of getting around the biased MSM.]
Agree with that.
Here we have Amanda Vanstone making a comment that the PM should have been more orivate about her father’s passing, and then we get this from the Abbott camp!! The disconnect is frickin amazing
[Margie is a good woman. A good woman could not be married to anything else but a good man.
Ergo: Abbott is a good man.]
Because nobody knows a good woman whose partner/husband is an insufferable oath…
[“This is a man who wanted to be a priest, for goodness sake!”]
… or a bad Catholic priest. Hmm.
Jackol
Perfect response me thinks
Jackol
[I won’t comment on Margaret Abbott – it would be totally inappropriate to drag a politician’s partner into the political debate. ]
Just a slight sweek
[I won’t comment on Margaret Abbott – it would be totally inappropriate to drag a politician’s partner, father, mother or sibling or children into the political debate.]
[I keep mulling over a “subtle” way for the government to say something like:
I won’t comment on Margaret Abbott – it would be totally inappropriate to drag a politician’s partner into the political debate. ]
“Clearly at least someone’s figured out how to put up with him.”
BB
LOL!
Interesting paragraph in the telegraph about the slipper /ashby/ affair
[And in a late twist, Justice Rares indicated Mr Ashby and his legal team may have abused the process of the court by alleging Mr Slipper committed Cabcharge fraud.
If that is true, does it means slipper will likely get the case struck out]
I doubt of itself that it would see the whole case chucked out but a costs sanction might be imposed including against lawyers personally
Abbott and Co going to western Sydney today, while most of them have headed out to Bathurst 50th anniversary race track for the weekend .Ltd News still trying to polish a turd. They are now in panic mode and Abbott under pressure till the election in August 2013.The 2 cents a kWh ( Carbon Price ) on electricity in QLD has just gone through unnoticed by the majority of voters.Now he has Turncoat breathing down his neck .2013 is going to be a great year.
[“Clearly at least someone’s figured out how to put up with him.”]
When the prize at stake is for family members enjoy living on Sydney harbour all expenses paid then they will say and do whatever it takes.
The blonde bimbo (Beverly O’Connor) on News 24 in her last parting line for the morning session was quoting a tweet that just arrived.
The tweet was ….. drumroll….. wait for it… wait for it
“Tony Abbott has just pulled the missing rabbott out of the hat”
The PM should just go over and give Tone the keys. How sickening for us to think Tone is a blockheaded prick
lol ok shellbell
thanks
[ “Clearly at least someone’s figured out how to put up with him.” ]
Yep. He is never there. Only drops in occasionally to change fluro shirts or to autograph a spare pair of buggy smugglers for alan jones.
I seem to recall that when Mark Latham was under attack his wife was wheeled out to defend him. Didn’t do him a lot of good.
Even Mitchell, who is having Margy on his show this morning said that it may be viewed as a cynical move.
[@Loveont0ast @sunriseon7 Mmmm…the misogyny Margie might accept, I don’t. The level of aggression he has injected into discourse atrocious.]
This is what really turns women off Abbott, I think, and has always done so. This is who he really is and has always been, and it just cannot be ‘fixed’ with a few blatant puff pieces in the Abbott friendly media. That horse has long since bolted and disappeared over the horizon.
Darn
And yet Mitchell is having Margie on his program.
Shellbell – more broadly on the case – how do you think it will develop today on the sexual harassment aspect ?
Do you see it as he said/ she said ?
To be fair, I actually believe that abbott is an equal opportunity thug. He has singled out women in politics such as Kernot, Hanson, and the PM for extra attention. But his thuggery is reserved for anyone on the Labor side of politics
So the RAbbott pulled another stunt this morning, did he ?
[Commentator on ABC News 24 thinks woman have a problem with Abbott because of Queensland public service cuts as woman are first to appreciate what front line services do.]
That would be because they are usually the ones who get left to pick up the pieces – especially at the personal, private family level – after the men have wrecked the joint.
(Women, of course, already know this. But it needs pointing out to the men. Repeatedly.)
The one thing that is really pleasing out of this defend Abbott thing is that his behaviour is now well and truly in the spotlight. He will not be able to just say whatever he likes any more and have it air brushed away. His whole modus operandi will now need to be modified and it will be very interesting to see how he copes with that – being the one trick pony that he is. The Pm is no longer the one “on trial”. He is.
I am wondering if Peta’s job description reads: Turning a horse’s arse into a sows ear? (Silk purse is still a long way off)
Darn
You make a very pertinent observation. Abbott really needs to flick the switch now. If he continues to behave as he did in the past, it will be highlighted against the attempts to soften his image.
Twitter has gone mad over this last ditch stand by New Ltd and LNP for Newspoll weekend Amazingly have only had one Lib troll asking me if “my father had molested me when I was a child” was going to engage him but would rather see the reply tweets, favorites and retweets
DARN one thing that is really pleasing out of this defend Abbott thing is that his behaviour is now well and truly in the spotlight. }
yes what a great observation.
now not one word out of place.
poroti,
I bow to your better knowledge of these things.