Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

Essential Research has been slow to catch the trend to Labor detected elsewhere, but it finally falls into line with a two-point shift in its latest weekly survey.

Troy Bramston of The Australian has just announced on Twitter there will be no Newspoll this evening, so I’m giving the weekly Essential Research its own thread instead. The result finds Essential maintaining a recent record of taking a while to catch up with the trend, even after accounting for the stabilising effects of its two-week rolling average methodology. Labor has made a two-point gain on two-party preferred to now trail 53-47, from primary votes of 36% for Labor (up one), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). This is Labor’s strongest two-party vote from Essential since June last year, and its strongest primary vote since a month previously. There’s even been a move in favour of the carbon tax, up three on support to 38% since June and down six on opposition to 48% – although there are now 69% who say they have noticed an increased in costs compared with 52% in August, with no increase down from 36% to 24%.

On the question of whether a seat at the UN Security Council would be of benefit, 44% say it would and 24% say it wouldn’t, which interestingly compares with 66% and 14% when the question was last posed in September 2008 (right when the global financial crisis was erupting, if that means anything). The poll also finds clear majority support for implementing higher taxes to fund the National Disability Insurance Scheme, dental health scheme and Gonski reforms, but not the purchase of new submarines (although Lindsay Tanner might have something to say about that). Sixty-eight per cent responded that a budget surplus was important “for the country as a whole”, but only 46% for them personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,953 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  2. Brought over from old thread
    @Telstra: @jennaprice We take matters like this seriously. Telstra will not support the Alan Jones breakfast program -Esther”

  4. I don’t think I commented on Essential just posted results.

    My opinion can be summed up as a feeling by emoticon. 🙂

  5. Do Newspoll usually abstain on long weekends? Or in this case a long weekend in much of the country.

    On the other hand, they would get short shrift if they rang during a grand final of your football code of choice.

  7. Just Me @ 3048 previous thread………

    How quickly did Ackerman let himself go.

    After all those years playing for the successful Brisbane Lions and now he is bloated beyond recognition.

    Bet you he can’t even do a handstand now.

  8. Perhaps next weeks Federal Newspoll will be the September quarterly stats showing 54/46 or 53/47 with the headlines “labor loses ground after Abbott smear campaign ! “

  13. Poliquant

    Not this amount of Twitter. Not when the public pressure is so much that for the first time for Alan Jones they are dumping him

  14. So, guns over butter.

    No wonder there was a lot of chest-beating amongst the war mongers when Labor trimmed Austraia’s defence acquisition sails. And no wonder there has been only the slightest murmer from the defence establishment when Mr Abbott announced a Defence Policy which virtually mirrors Labor on the all-important issues of the acquisition of new planes and subs, coupled with a the development of a new White Paper.

    Mr Abbott is also sticking with his policy of changing the indexing of defence pensions. While it will garner him some votes, it is likely to make increasing defence spending even more difficult. It is a billion dollar plus policy.

    Finally, sacking a few suits might make enough to buy half a drone, but not much else, at $40 million a pop for a top-of-the-line drone. It might make the uniforms feel better as well.

  17. Simple mathematical question.

    Given the last Essential was 55 and this one is 53, and given that Essential averages over a 2 week sample,

    What is the maximum value for the most recent weekly sample?

    Is it 51? A bit more? A bit less?

  18. Just elaborating on Poliquant’s contention that the Jones matter might blow over by the time the Newspoll is taken towards the end of the week.

    I’m of the opinion that this incident, if Alan Jones is unable to brazen it out and ends up ‘falling on his sword’, may indicate the point in history in Australia when the Baby Boomers lost their grip on the levers of power and Generation X took over. As they are the ones behind the push on social media.

    We’ll see how it pans out.

  21. Joe6pack
    Posted Monday, October 1, 2012 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

    Newman is just as bad as Abbott blaming that horrible crash on labor.
    There is nothing wrong with that stretch of road but that is not the point. The police are doing the investigations but a bit of info is that they think the driver may have had a heart attack.
    Scoring political points of peoples deaths seems to be the new lib tactic

  22. I heard earlier on the news that two smaller stations are dumping Jone’s show.

    Does 2HD in the Hunter carry his show?

  24. [Scoring political points of peoples deaths seems to be the new lib tactic]

    Garrett killed four pink batt installers according to the libs, it is just a continuing tactic.

  25. Guytaur,

    The advertisers which are withdrawing their advertising for AJ show are making a judgement call. I don’t think they have any objective evidence about AJ’s comments in a 24 hr timeframe.

    That being said they are not rusted on lefties, so you point has some weight.

  27. BB

    [You can just TELL the judge it’s all over and he’ll rubber stamp it without demur?]

    Yes within reason. 5 cents says Justice Rares congratulates Ashby and Cth on reaching their agreement.

    Judges like cases settling so they can get on with finishing off other work. In Justice Rares’ case that is tidying up the Lehman Bros’ judgment.

  28. Joe6pack @ 21

    I was taught to drive to suit the road and traffic conditions.

    If everyone always did that there would be far less accidents.

    Crappy road? Then slow down and take additional care.

    I am sure you and your professional drivers would do this.

  29. William,

    That change in responses to the question of a seat on the UN Security council demonstrates the effect that occurs when the Liberals make something a political football. It shows the number of people who just think in terms of what their “team” supports.

    Same deal with the NBN. Had it not been politicised it would now be getting 90% approval.

  30. Well done re Belinda Neal C@tmomma

    I’m still supporting Berger and Woolworths for backing him – there has to be a separation between work and private lives. Yes he should be a apolitical in his work, privately he should be act as he likes – within reason – he was not representing the company at the time.

    We are not employees 24/7

  32. [ if Alan Jones is unable to brazen it out and ends up ‘falling on his sword’, may indicate the point in history in Australia when the Baby Boomers lost their grip on the levers of power and Generation X took over. ]

    Either way, the internet/ blogs/ twitter etc have well and truly asserted themselves and are going to get more and more powerful.

    The MSM/ companies etc are being talked back at with a voice that cannot be ignored.

    As usual the tories are on the wrong side of it all.

  34. libs very upset at woollies dropping advertising,

    click through the links of some of the lib commentators on the woolworths facebook page, takes you to the best of their feralness on show including pickering cartoons of gillard et all

  40. shellbell

    The most likely derivation for ‘aker’ is the same root word as ‘acre’, ie, a measure of land, or a field. If so, an ‘akerman’ would probably have had an agricultural labourer as an ancestor.

  41. bemused

    It isn,t a crappy piece of road. It is ok and the conditions were fine.
    As i said the police are leaning towards a medical issue but until their investigation is completed no one should be blaming anyone.Especially politicians for a cheap political shot!
    I am sorry for both the families of the deceased and the driver of the truck .

  43. Are the commercial channels still running with Jones on their news, didn’t look so was wondering if anyone has been watching?

  45. So, Mr Newman is using the bodies of car crash victims as political footballs

    There is a vague echo with Mr Morris’ view that the Prime Minister should be kicked to death.

    How tastefulment of the Liberals.

  46. Hope you’re right re the Boomers C@tmomma – I’m sick of 50 yo + men trying to tell us what to think

    Their time has gone, pass on the baton to Gen X before it’s too late!!!

  47. mari
    SkyNews had it. Inter alia mentioned the online petition – albeit at a level several thousand below where it had already got to.

  48. Joe6pack@41


    bemused

    It isn,t a crappy piece of road. It is ok and the conditions were fine.
    As i said the police are leaning towards a medical issue but until their investigation is completed no one should be blaming anyone.Especially politicians for a cheap political shot!
    I am sorry for both the families of the deceased and the driver of the truck .

    I assumed that as Newman was moaning about wanting more money, it was a poor section of road.

    This makes his antics even worse.

    Great to have your local knowledge and industry experience available.

    I take your point about the families of the deceased AND the truck driver. He will be traumatised by the experience but overlooked by many.

  49. [I’m still supporting Berger and Woolworths for backing him – there has to be a separation between work and private lives. Yes he should be a apolitical in his work, privately he should be act as he likes – within reason – he was not representing the company at the time.

    We are not employees 24/7]

    I agree with that womble, what is the problem for berger and woollies is is prominent position as communities relations manager and his tie in with Jones and the auction, given he donated the chaff bag jacket.

    Jones’s insensitive comment so close to her fathers death not only hit out at daughters who had lost a father but wives who had lost a husband, as many of pointed out the comments and resulting laughter on Gillards mother has not raised. The libs appear to have overlooked the impact this has on women, which is of course their norm.

    berger is closely associated with jones and woollies aims at women in the household, much as rices comments cost her so could bergers support of jones.

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