Troy Bramston of The Australian has just announced on Twitter there will be no Newspoll this evening, so I’m giving the weekly Essential Research its own thread instead. The result finds Essential maintaining a recent record of taking a while to catch up with the trend, even after accounting for the stabilising effects of its two-week rolling average methodology. Labor has made a two-point gain on two-party preferred to now trail 53-47, from primary votes of 36% for Labor (up one), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). This is Labor’s strongest two-party vote from Essential since June last year, and its strongest primary vote since a month previously. There’s even been a move in favour of the carbon tax, up three on support to 38% since June and down six on opposition to 48% – although there are now 69% who say they have noticed an increased in costs compared with 52% in August, with no increase down from 36% to 24%.
On the question of whether a seat at the UN Security Council would be of benefit, 44% say it would and 24% say it wouldn’t, which interestingly compares with 66% and 14% when the question was last posed in September 2008 (right when the global financial crisis was erupting, if that means anything). The poll also finds clear majority support for implementing higher taxes to fund the National Disability Insurance Scheme, dental health scheme and Gonski reforms, but not the purchase of new submarines (although Lindsay Tanner might have something to say about that). Sixty-eight per cent responded that a budget surplus was important “for the country as a whole”, but only 46% for them personally.
I am avoiding Woolworths while they continue to employ Mr Berger coz I don’t want to catch anything really nasty.
essential at 36% is encouraging, labor formed government with 38% in 2010.
“@BBCBreaking: Judge in Moscow adjourns appeal hearing for #PussyRiot punk band until 10 October – follow @BBCSteveR http://t.co/Kz9dF0nO”
It wasn’t ‘just political rhetoric’ that Alan Jones engaged in at the Sydney Uni Liberal Club President’s Dinner, it was denigration of the PM in the most underhanded fashion possible.
And for that grub Adam Creighton to blithely state that no one can actually die of shame, so why are people getting so worked up about it anyway?
Words fail me.
Its a variation on *I don’t recall*
@Colvinius: Interesting. RT @stuarthorrex: Why the company behind Alan Jones’ radio show can’t afford another disaster http://t.co/x0ngFGou
Abbott rears his bullshit,only on twitter
Tony Abbott@TonyAbbottMHR_
Alan Jones is a great Australian and Liberal #thedrum
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Schnappi@Schnappi5
@TonyAbbottMHR_ Rubbish,and so are you,minds are in the gutter,unhinged young liberals seem like your youth,disgusting bullies.
Berger is toast, not for being MC not for anything he has said but for the chaff bag jacket.
bemused – 16
One of the reasons you are still here.
Will Newman blame the Federal government for this as well?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-01/authorities-search-for-missing-vintage-plane/4289656
cud chewer
Last Essential William said ALP was probably unlucky not to get a point gain, as there was a bit of primary shifting. It was probably right on the cusp. Essential don’t show half points (only Morgan do), its rounded.
So if was 55 LNP but nearly 54 LNP a week ago, and say this 53 is on the high side, it might not mean this week’s sample by itself is 51 LNP. Could be 52 (my guess) or even 53 at the low end.
Lets wait and see see how next week goes.
ruawake @58,
I’d like to believe you but so far it doesn’t seem like he’s getting enough attention.
Pleased if you can prove me wrong.
Womble. I thought you were a switched on (if misguided) sort of person.
His JOB is “Manager of Government Relations”.
There is a LABOR government.
There was a CHAFF BAG that he paid for.
He sang four songs about CHAFF BAGS during the evening.
His position as “Manager of Government Relations” is untenable.
Seeing as his boss is an ex Tony Abbott PRESS SECRETARY, it is pretty clear the true description of his employment was “Manager of Liberal Party Relations”.
Still untenable.
C@tmomma – 18
[I’m of the opinion that this incident, if Alan Jones is unable to brazen it out and ends up ‘falling on his sword’, may indicate the point in history in Australia when the Baby Boomers lost their grip on the levers of power and Generation X took over. As they are the ones behind the push on social media.
Disappointing from you, C@tmomma. Ageist crap.
when? next week?
“@smh: Business News: New auditing standards to protect investors http://t.co/okpQxxQV
Ooh big bad government is protecting investors from bad decisions
I wonder if Alex or Sussan bid on the chaff coiture?
BK
If you listen very carefully you can hear…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl_EaIRJRtM
Re Essential: you work it out like this.
47 = (Last Week + This week)/2.
Therefore: (Last Week + This Week) = 94.
We know “Last Week” = 45 (and has for yoiks).
Therefore: 94 – 45 = 49 = “This week”
This week’s Essential ran out to 51-49, Lib’s favour.
Lead story on SBS, went for 4 minutes. Albo and Roxon giving it to the tool
poroti
Now that is uplifting!
“@Simon_Cullen: Tas Lib leader RT @WillHodgman: Alan Jones’s comments about PM are appalling and outrageous – as are attempts to blame Tony Abbott for them”
“@Simon_Cullen: Tas Lib leader RT @WillHodgman: Alan Jones’s comments about PM are appalling and outrageous – as are attempts to blame Tony Abbott for them”
Fins Monday night at 11pm
Sorry next Monday a week later than usual
muttleymcgee@59
There are some good posters on PB who provide either evidence and/or a well reasoned argument.
There are also plenty who make wild assumptions and leaps of logic with no basis. They are almost a mirror image of the Tea Party.
I learn a lot from the former group, occasionally disparage but largely ignore the latter group and occasionally contribute some facts and/or logical argument.
“@guytaur: Memo Liberals. Not condemning events at a Liberal Party function with Party MP’s present reflects on U. Be accountable 4 yr party#auspol”
This is obviously the Lib line de jour – Alex Hawke said the same thing.
Libs are defiantly in crisis control.
“@karlkwin: 2GB boss stands by Alan Jones as advertiser walkout gathers pace http://t.co/5udCyCos via @theage”
If Sussan Ley and Alex Hawke couldn’t hear a speech delivered into a microphone only a few metres away, how can they claim to listen to the people??
muttleymcgee @ 64
You are right on that!
There are plenty of quite feisty older men and women and some old men (and women) in their twenties and thirties.
I smell a rat, and so should William (who said they usually ran Newspoll on long-weekends, such as this one – state-based – regardless).
It can be argued that the entire last week or so has been predicated on a Newspoll over the past weekend: Tanner, Ruddstoration, UNSC, Jones’ story being late in the DT, Megalogenis’ (senior News Ltd journo) comment that Abbott may have been delaying for the final Newspoll metrics to be collected, plus all the scuttlebutt, including from Sky, indeed everywhere, that Newspoll was coming out tomorrow.
Throw in William’s statement that a casual, state-based long-weekend hasn’t served to stop a nationwide Newspoll too often in the past and, Mesdames, Messieurs: we ‘ave … un rat.
When are Donny and Marie (Prissy and Mesma) going to trot out Peta’s line “Alan Jones’s comments about PM are appalling and outrageous – as are attempts to blame Tony Abbott for them” as another well rehearsed duet?
zoidlord,
The piano played fine on the Titanic too!
Libs want to move, have to be asked who do they blame for the political environment.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/15007030/no-apology-here-libs-deflect-jones-strife/
bemused
I’m with joe on this. If your IQ is above room temperature then driving to the conditions is a no brainer. Dangerous roads ? Nah it is the nut behind the wheel. You do not have to be a professional driver to know that.
Now 50,399 supporters
BB @ 83
Ummm I smell a conspiracy theory. And a far fetched one at that.
Bushfire Bill
Get my email?
So, just lately we have had:
(1) an uncosted defence policy
(2) a bit of subliminal pandering by way of doing a 180 degrees backflip on compensation for victims of terrorism
(3) some last gasp ranting and misrepresentations about the carbon tax
(4) mistaking Geneva for New York
(5) being too dopey to know that SBY was in New York and not in Bandung
(6) some public white-anting of Australia’s international diplomatic position
(7) some piss weak running for cover on Mr Jones
(8) some disreputable, arrogant and racist dissing of Luxembourg and Africans
(9) some disunity and public slagging of each other on wheat marketing policy…
(10) and a series of seat-hunting failures by the greatest retail politician of all time.
What a bunch of disrespectful, pathetic losers. They are a shambles and are not fit to be the Opposition, let alone government.
“@sspencer_63: With Newspoll on hold last 4 polls are Essential 53-47; Morgan 52-48; Nielsen 53-47: Newspoll 50-50. Average 52-48.”
C@tmomma
You’d think Adam Creighton would have to disclose that he was recently a senior economic adviser to Tony Abbott, wouldn’t you!
One for media watch?
“@GMegalogenis: It took the internet a decade to undermine the advertising revenue base of print media. #AlanJones only needed an hour to the same to 2GB.”
muttleymcgee,
I was not being ‘ageist’ I was attempting to look at the issue from a social science perspective.
Why have generations at all, I suppose? However, we do, and people make a lot of them and ascribe social shifts to them and the ebb and flow of power can be gauged, can it not, by looking at how one generation holds power and then the one below it, at some inflexion point in time, takes over from the one before.
It’s not something which is obvious when it occurs, but usually noticed with the passing of it, in the rear view mirror of life. For example, when power was handed from John Howard to a much younger Kevin Rudd.
I just thought that, even though we have witnessed his young ‘Defenders of the Faith’ on The Drum tonight, that if this incident involving Alan Jones leads to his demise, may it not signal one of those inflexion points in history?
Even if power only gets handed to the man at 2GB, younger by 10 odd years than Alan Jones, by the name of Ray Hadley. 🙂
And, granted, the Queen is still doing a pretty good job at 80+ years old.
poroti
Thanks but that was bemused response to my earlier post.
I totally agree with his comments.
I am disgusted at Newman trying to score points of a tragic event.
Any idiots out there defending Jones today don’t understand how these things work. The massive response yesterday ensured that everybody already had an opinion before the day was over. Today they just sort the statements into the ‘agree’ or ‘disagree’ pile. Nobody’s going to change their mind because somebody comes out and says, “look, Alan’s actually a great guy.”
It’s cut and dried. There’s a lot to say about this – in terms of where the Australian mood has shifted to lately – but briefly, the original comment was bad enough, but not so bad that a sincere apology wouldn’t have made it go away. It was Jones’ presser that stuffed everything. It confirmed a lot of half-acknowledged impressions about the right in this country. And the wet-fish response from the Liberals is the killer. Everyone knows that Jones stepped way over the line. Those who can’t bring themselves to agree to that and condemn him get tarred with the same brush.
They can’t attack the ALP with any effectiveness now. It’s going to elicit sympathy for the ALP. And their statements are going to be scrutinised, whereas before they were glossed over and the ‘message’ was massaged in the reportage to airbrush the slurs out.
What we’re really seeing is just how many snakes have got themselves tangled up with Jones, and just how tangled up they are. What can Abbott say, really? Jones’ base is Abbott’s base, so there’s no was he can totally disassociate himself from Jones.
The most ironic part of this is our PM is pilloried for “lying” about the carbon tax (a broken promise, at best) when the Lib attendees were quite happy to lie “we never heard it” about Jones’s statement until it transpired there was a recording of it. Jones even lied that it was private function, when it was not.
Disgraceful turds.
Interesting to see Essential at 51/49 for the past week; very encouraging.
Tell me YOU didn’t expect a Newspoll over last weekend Bemused and then restate your conspiracy theory rubbish.
I gave evidence. You cited a cliche.
Abbott will say no more about Jones’ comments.
Why would he bite the hand that feeds him?